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Obama Poll Watch -- July, 2016

[ Posted Thursday, August 4th, 2016 – 16:56 PDT ]

Obama's Streak Ends

Last month, President Obama's longest winning streak in job approval polling ended. For the first six months of 2016, Obama improved his monthly average job approval number each and every month. That's a longer streak than he's ever managed, to put it into perspective. His job approval rose a whopping 6.5 points during this period, while his average monthly job disapproval number fell 5.4 points. In July, however, both numbers experienced a mild correction, ending this notable streak.

Obama Approval -- July 2016

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

July, 2016

Obama's job approval rating fell 0.4 points, to wind up at 49.6 percent. His job disapproval rose by a half a point, to end up at 46.7 percent. That's still relatively good -- both are stronger numbers than he's seen since the first two months of his second term (in his "second honeymoon" period). But the large gains he made in June couldn't be sustained and fell back a bit for both numbers.

In the political world, July was almost exclusively centered on Cleveland and Philadelphia, where both parties held their national conventions. The vice-presidential picks were rolled out and then Republicans and Democrats both threw a four-day party to formally introduce their candidates to the American people.

Obama's approval likely went down in July because of the timing of these two events. His job approval number was in fairly good shape but then took a dive while Republicans were telling voters what a terrible job he's been doing. They started to recover when Democrats got their licks in the next week. So what is likely happening is Obama's poll numbers mirrored who had the nation's attention. Again because of the timing, this will probably help Obama in August.

 

Overall Trends

President Obama's overall trend lines still look pretty good, even with the dip in July figured in. He's in better shape than he's been all year, with the exception of June's numbers (which rose faster than the general trend he's seen since the beginning of the year). Here's a detail chart of the last year, where this trend can be more easily seen.

Obama (detail)

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

The upward trend for Obama's approval was very strong from January to March, but then tapered off to a slower and more gradual rise. Even discounting the June data point, you can see that Obama is still on that path. While his approval fell 0.4 percent this month, it's still 0.8 points higher than it was in May.

Obama is still a comfortable 2.9 points above water, and his daily approval rate never even came close to sinking below his daily approval rate during the month. This has been true for the past three months now. His daily approval rating started the month at 50.1 percent, dropped during the GOP convention to 49.1 percent, but then rose to end the month at 50.0 percent. This shows his numbers are already recovering, heading into August. Obama's daily disapproval followed a similar path throughout the month, although the end-of-month recovery wasn't as pronounced.

The safe bet for August is that Obama will return to his gradual rise. He might not match June's high point, but he'll likely continue to improve his job approval ratings. Congress is out for the entire month, so there won't be legislative squabbles, and the general election campaign for president will get underway. The funniest shout from the crowd at the Democratic National Convention that I heard was during Barack Obama's speech, when several people yelled "Four more years!" That feeling -- that we're going to miss Obama when he's gone -- will likely only grow over the next three or four months. So I look for Obama to turn his numbers around in August, and post modest gains.

 

[Obama Poll Watch Data:]

Sources And Methodology

ObamaPollWatch.com is an admittedly amateur effort, but we do try to stay professional when it comes to revealing our sources and methodology. All our source data comes from RealClearPolitics.com; specifically from their daily presidential approval ratings "poll of polls" graphic page. We take their daily numbers, log them, and then average each month's data into a single number -- which is then shown on our monthly charts here (a "poll of polls of polls," if you will...). You can read a much-more detailed explanation of our source data and methodology on our "About Obama Poll Watch" page, if you're interested.

Questions or comments? Use the Email Chris page to drop me a private note.

 

Obama's Second Term Statistical Records

Monthly
Highest Monthly Approval -- 1/13 -- 52.7%
Lowest Monthly Approval -- 11/13 -- 41.4%

Highest Monthly Disapproval -- 12/13 -- 54.0%
Lowest Monthly Disapproval -- 1/13 -- 42.6%

Daily
Highest Daily Approval -- 1/31/13 -- 52.5%
Lowest Daily Approval -- 12/2/13 -- 39.8%

Highest Daily Disapproval -- 12/2/13 -- 55.9%
Lowest Daily Disapproval -- 2/24/13 -- 42.3%

 

Obama's Second Term Raw Monthly Data

[All-time high in bold, all-time low underlined.]

Month -- (Approval / Disapproval / Undecided)
07/16 -- 49.6 / 46.7 / 3.7
06/16 -- 50.0 / 46.2 / 3.8
05/16 -- 48.8 / 47.3 / 3.9
04/16 -- 48.6 / 47.2 / 4.2
03/16 -- 48.4 / 47.4 / 4.2
02/16 -- 46.3 / 49.6 / 4.1
01/16 -- 45.5 / 50.2 / 4.3
12/15 -- 43.7 / 51.6 / 4.7
11/15 -- 44.4 / 51.3 / 4.3
10/15 -- 45.3 / 50.0 / 4.7
09/15 -- 45.6 / 50.3 / 4.1
08/15 -- 44.7 / 50.4 / 4.9
07/15 -- 45.7 / 50.0 / 4.3
06/15 -- 44.6 / 50.7 / 4.7
05/15 -- 45.4 / 50.0 / 4.6
04/15 -- 45.2 / 49.9 / 4.9
03/15 -- 44.9 / 50.8 / 4.3
02/15 -- 45.4 / 50.1 / 4.5
01/15 -- 44.8 / 50.5 / 4.7
12/14 -- 42.4 / 52.8 / 4.8
11/14 -- 42.0 / 53.4 / 4.6
10/14 -- 42.1 / 53.4 / 4.5
09/14 -- 41.5 / 53.5 / 5.0
08/14 -- 41.6 / 53.0 / 5.4
07/14 -- 41.8 / 53.6 / 4.6
06/14 -- 42.4 / 53.4 / 4.2
05/14 -- 44.0 / 51.7 / 4.3
04/14 -- 43.4 / 52.1 / 4.5
03/14 -- 42.9 / 52.8 / 4.3
02/14 -- 43.3 / 52.3 / 4.4
01/14 -- 42.7 / 52.7 / 4.6
12/13 -- 41.9 / 54.0 / 4.1
11/13 -- 41.4 / 53.9 / 4.7
10/13 -- 44.2 / 50.8 / 5.0
09/13 -- 43.9 / 50.8 / 5.3
08/13 -- 44.4 / 50.2 / 5.4
07/13 -- 45.3 / 49.2 / 5.5
06/13 -- 46.5 / 48.5 / 5.0
05/13 -- 48.3 / 46.9 / 4.8
04/13 -- 48.6 / 46.8 / 4.6
03/13 -- 48.5 / 46.3 / 5.2
02/13 -- 51.1 / 43.0 / 5.9
01/13 -- 52.7 / 42.6 / 4.7

 

Second Term Column Archives

[Jun 16], [May 16], [Apr 16], [Mar 16], [Feb 16], [Jan 16], [Dec 15], [Nov 15], [Oct 15], [Sep 15], [Aug 15], [Jul 15], [Jun 15], [May 15], [Apr 15], [Mar 15], [Feb 15], [Jan 15], [Dec 14], [Nov 14], [Oct 14], [Sep 14], [Aug 14], [Jul 14], [Jun 14], [May 14], [Apr 14], [Mar 14], [Feb 14], [Jan 14], Dec 13], [Nov 13], [Oct 13], Sep 13], [Aug 13], [Jul 13], [Jun 13], [May 13], [Apr 13], [Mar 13], [Feb 13], [Jan 13]

 

First Term Data

To save space, the only data and statistics listed above are from Obama's second term. If you'd like to see the data and stats from Obama's first term, including a list of links to the full archives of the Obama Poll Watch column for the first term, we've set up an Obama Poll Watch First Term Data page, for those still interested.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

23 Comments on “Obama Poll Watch -- July, 2016”

  1. [1] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Sorry for the rather abbreviated nature of this month's OPW column, but I'm still getting things back to normal after getting home from the convention.

    -CW

  2. [2] 
    ListenWhenYouHear wrote:

    The dreaded "unpacking"! I usually come back missing one sock, losing my headphones and/or sunglasses, but gaining an extra bath clothe and mini soaps that I will never use.

  3. [3] 
    Michale wrote:

    Obama's Streak Ends

    Last month, President Obama's longest winning streak in job approval polling ended. For the first six months of 2016, Obama improved his monthly average job approval number each and every month. That's a longer streak than he's ever managed, to put it into perspective. His job approval rose a whopping 6.5 points during this period, while his average monthly job disapproval number fell 5.4 points. In July, however, both numbers experienced a mild correction, ending this notable streak.

    Who could have POSSIBLY predicted that!??!!??

    Oh... wait... :D

    So I look for Obama to turn his numbers around in August, and post modest gains.

    Wanna bet?? :D

    Obama's Cash For Hostages ransom he paid is going to drag him down...

    Michale

  4. [4] 
    Michale wrote:

    Obama's Cash For Hostages ransom he paid is going to drag him down...

    OBAMA SPENDS 7 MINUTES DODGING ON WHETHER IRAN WILL USE $400 MILLION TO FUND TERRORISM
    http://ntknetwork.com/obama-spends-7-minutes-dodging-on-whether-iran-will-use-400-million-to-fund-terrorism/

    Michale

  5. [5] 
    Michale wrote:

    On an interesting side note..

    TOP TEN SHOWS REPUBLICANS LIKE
    "Supernatural"
    "The Walking Dead"
    "Scorpion"
    "Arrow"
    "The Flash"
    "The Big Bang Theory"
    "NCIS"
    "Blue Bloods"
    "Grimm"
    "Last Man Standing"

    Listen... That's gotta hurt! :D hehehe

    TOP TEN SHOWS DEMOCRATS LIKE
    "Game of Thrones"
    "The Haves and the Have Nots"
    "Supernatural"
    "The Big Bang Theory"
    "Suits"
    "The Walking Dead"
    "How to Get Away With Murder"
    "Doctor Who"
    "Empire"
    "Nashville"

    Democrats and Republicans agree on 3 shows..

    SUPERNATURAL, WALKING DEAD, BIG BANG THEORY

    I am sure some psychological point can be made from that.. :D

    Michale

  6. [6] 
    John M wrote:

    Michale wrote:

    "Democrats and Republicans agree on 3 shows..

    SUPERNATURAL, WALKING DEAD, BIG BANG THEORY

    I am sure some psychological point can be made from that.."

    Possibly, but I doubt it. What would the supernatural, horror and nerds have in common? Personally, I watch 5 of the shows from the Republican list on a regular basis, and only 2 from the Democratic list, yet if I had to accurately describe myself and pigeonhole me into a specific category, I would say that I am a Liberal Democrat.

  7. [7] 
    Michale wrote:

    Possibly, but I doubt it. What would the supernatural, horror and nerds have in common? Personally, I watch 5 of the shows from the Republican list on a regular basis, and only 2 from the Democratic list, yet if I had to accurately describe myself and pigeonhole me into a specific category, I would say that I am a Liberal Democrat.

    I watch 3 shows from the DEM list (SUPERNATURAL, TBBT and SUITS.. LOVE Suits.. :D) and 5 shows from the GOP list.. We used to watch ARROW, but it just got too weird... Plus what they did to Katie Cassidy from SUPERNATURAL to ARROW is simply a crime against nature... :^/

    Michale

    Michale

  8. [8] 
    Michale wrote:

    CW,

    I have a nomination for MDDOTW award.. :D

    This Virginia Mayor Endorsed Hillary Clinton, Now He’s in Jail for Trying to Buy Sex with Meth

    Fairfax City Mayor R. Scott Silverthorne, a supporter of Hillary Clinton, was arrested Thursday after allegedly giving methamphetamine to an undercover police officer in exchange for sex.

    Silverthorne, who has been mayor of Fairfax since 2012, was announced as a member of “Mayors for Hillary” back in February of this year.
    http://heatst.com/politics/virginia-mayor-sex-meth/

    Heh

    Michale

  9. [9] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    ListenWhenYouHear [2] -

    You got that right. "Where's the phone charger? Ahhh!" Heh.

    Michale [3] -

    Obama's still almost exactly where Reagan was at this point. Oh, and Dubya had sunk below 30% approval at this point, never to see above it again. Just, y'know, to put it in perspective for you.

    :-)

    [5] -

    OK, now that is an interesting list. Particularly BBT. I love the show, but always wondered why it was so popular. The dialog skews very scientific and wonky, which usually turns people off. The actors and the characters are great, maybe that makes up for it. I also always wondered (while also loving the show) why West Wing was so popular, for almost exactly the same reasons.

    John M -

    I watch 3 from each list, but you're right it's a fascinating thing to contemplate. Of course, there's always a big difference between "coincidence" and "causality" -- lists like this aren't very predictive.

    My main message [if I ran the world] to TV executives would be: "Bring back Craig Ferguson on late night! We miss him!"

    But then, that's just me.

    Michale [8] -

    Well, he's a contender, that's for sure. Disappointing enough, true, but pretty minor guy. I usually only award minor guys the prize if nobody else (nobody more prominent) did anything disappointing that week. So I'll have to think about it, but thanks for the suggestion.

    OK, time to hit the keyboard for Friday's column...

    -CW

  10. [10] 
    Michale wrote:

    Obama's still almost exactly where Reagan was at this point. Oh, and Dubya had sunk below 30% approval at this point, never to see above it again. Just, y'know, to put it in perspective for you.

    Thank you for that perspective.. Much appreciated. :D

    Michale

  11. [11] 
    apophis wrote:

    [9]
    Chris Weigant

    The dialog skews very scientific and wonky, which usually turns people off.

    You got me. I do like TBBT for that very reason.

    I also like "The IT Crowd". It appeals to my dry British sense of humor...

  12. [12] 
    Michale wrote:

    My main message [if I ran the world] to TV executives would be: "Bring back Craig Ferguson on late night! We miss him!"

    Who??? :D

    Oh "Late night"... That explains it... I am in bed by 1930hrs.. :D

    Michale

  13. [13] 
    TheStig wrote:

    Hmmmm

    The ONLY show that I've seen (on either list) is Dr. Who, and that was around 1985, old UK re-runs shown on Public Broadcasting. Tom Baker mostly, who is THE Dr. WHO so far as I'm concerned.

    I can't stand commercials!!!!

    I'll get around to Empire and Game Of T. eventually, in binge mode on NetFliz or Amazon.

    Dry humor....as in dry gin? As in gin and tonic? Gin and tonic season runs until Labor Day in my Alcohol Zone (almost the same map as frost zones) at which point I switch back to lighter beers. Always a poignant moment, coming up fast.

  14. [14] 
    Michale wrote:

    I can't stand commercials!!!!

    KODI (AKA XBMC) & torrents...

    Haven't seen any commercials in over a decade.. :D

    Michale

  15. [15] 
    rdnewman wrote:

    The show I still miss is "The Good Guys", staring Brad Whitford and Colin Hanks, which had a one-season run a couple of years ago. Worth watching on Netflix.

  16. [16] 
    apophis wrote:

    [13]
    TheStig

    Tom Baker mostly, who is THE Dr. WHO so far as I'm concerned.

    Right on mate...

  17. [17] 
    neilm wrote:

    TS [13]
    Dr Who = Jon Pertwee for me. Maybe I'm aging myself ;)

    Did "Ripping Yarns" make it over here in the 70's?

  18. [18] 
    neilm wrote:

    According to 538, if the election was held today Hillary would win Arizona and Georgia (in a 368-170 landslide).

    Let the good times roll, at least for 100 more days or so.

  19. [19] 
    TheStig wrote:

    Neilm-17

    Yeah, I used to watch Ripping Yarns on PBS. The parody of Tom Brown's School Days was the best episode IMHO. Not as funny as Python and even fewer episodes, but memorable.

    I liked Faulty Towers better. My father was a huge fan too. Hard to pick a best episode. Maybe Gourmet Night, where he gives the car a good thrashing.

    Imported British TV is still better than domestic. Sherlock! Wolf Hall.

    I'm aging myself....and not a damn thing I can do about it.

  20. [20] 
    Michale wrote:

    According to 538, if the election was held today Hillary would win Arizona and Georgia (in a 368-170 landslide).

    Yea.. And according to 538, Trump had only a 5% chance of being the GOP nominee... :D

    By all means, please keep your heads in the sand.. :D

    Michale

  21. [21] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    my guess is that obama stays stable at 50 through election day, then gets a small uptick for the last 2-3 months.

    i regularly watch two republican shows, two democratic shows, and none of the shows liked by both. NCIS i used to really enjoy, but i got tired of it when it grew spin-offs. Flash and arrow are guilty pleasures, not such good shows but a call-back to my days as a comic-loving teen. suits is outstanding dramedy - serious themes with cute dialogue. doctor who is an institution - the past few seasons have been barely watchable, but after twelve doctors we can't very well quit now.

    JL

  22. [22] 
    Michale wrote:

    NCIS i used to really enjoy, but i got tired of it when it grew spin-offs.

    I know, right??

    We used to love NCIS, but now it's our "standby" show.. Something available in case nothing else is on...

    We're catching up on GRIMM at the moment... Up to the end of Season 4...

    Michale

  23. [23] 
    Michale wrote:

    . doctor who is an institution - the past few seasons have been barely watchable, but after twelve doctors we can't very well quit now.

    I don't know what it is about Brit Sci-Fi shows.. I sat thru a couple seasons of PRIMEVAL and was appalled at the lack of continuity, scientific believability and even logic..

    I came away from that show thinking, "Well, I guess Brit sci-fi geeks aren't too demanding of their shows.."

    I mean, they make SyFy series/movies seem Ellison-esque or Bradbury-esque or Heinlein-esque by comparison...

    And THAT says something...

    The Canadian version of PRIMEVAL was a LOT better than the Brit version...

    Michale

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