Welcome to the last of these Electoral Math columns, at least for the next three and a half years. Today, we're just going to throw caution to the wind, and go ahead and predict the outcome of tomorrow night's returns. Before we get to that, though, a quick rundown of my previous record in the election prediction business, and then (for completeness' sake) the final electoral math graphs for 2012.
Archive of Articles in the "2008 Electoral Math" Category
Are you worried that Frankenstorm will restrict your access to up-to-date polling numbers? Do you know more about the state of the race in places you’ve never been to, but haven’t decided what to do for Hallowe’en yet? Then you have come to the right place! With one week to go before Election Day dawns, the race for president is about as tight as it can get, so let's get right to it.
But the most exciting news is that Al Franken will win a very tight race in Minnesota. Senator Al Franken will take over from Senator Hillary Clinton as the biggest annoyance to Republican peace of mind across the country. Just the fact that Franken will now be in the United States Senate is going to drive some right-wingers clear around the bend (that's my prediction, anyway).
If you detect a certain giddiness here at Electoral Math Central, it is due to the fact that the election is actually drawing nigh, after a seemingly eternal campaign season. It's been a long, long road to where we find ourselves, and we're all feeling the strain. But fear not! Election Day is just around the corner, and just about everything seems to be breaking Obama's way.
Which reminds me, what the heck is John McCain doing in Pennsylvania? He must be counting on one whopping big Bradley Effect there, because almost every poll I've seen says he doesn't stand a chance in the Keystone State.
This week's word is going to be "insurmountable." Look for it coming from the lips and pens of pundits everywhere in the next week. Because while mainstream media journalists are obviously trying to portray this race as a lot closer than it really is (better ratings that way), if Obama can just hold on to the leads he has right now -- not improve them in any way, just hold them -- then Election Day viewing parties nationwide may be over before anyone's even finished their first beer.
I have to admit, that's a pretty provocative title. And enumerating the poultry before they emerge from the ova is always risky... as the saying goes. But it's hard to look at this week's polls without the word "landslide" appearing in your forebrain.
It's time once again for our weekly look at the state polls in the electoral race between John McCain and Barack Obama. Now, a lot has happened since last week's column, including the first debate, the "suspension" of McCain's campaign, Wall Street continuing to crash and burn, and Sarah Palin finally sitting down with Katie Couric (Katie must be beside herself with joy by this point, because she seems to be the only reporter Palin will now talk to). Palin interviews have headlined on CBS' evening news show for four weeknights in a row now. And that's not even mentioning the parody on Saturday Night Live ("I'd like to use my lifeline!").
Since last week's dismal outlook for Obama, there has been an absolute flood of state poll numbers released. One day after last week's column ran, over thirty states released polls on the same day. Whew! They even polled the District of Columbia, for the first time in the entire election season (you can see why they hadn't bothered up until now -- it unsurprisingly came out 82/13 in Obama's favor). But so many state polls are being released so fast, that for the first time every single state has been polled recently -- and not just in the past month, but in the past week. This flood of data is a good thing, though, as it keeps the electoral map a lot closer to the current voter preferences state-by-state.
Yesterday, I did a roundup of the state polls and the electoral math outlook for the presidential race. Today, I checked the numbers as I do every morning, and over thirty states had new poll numbers -- an astonishing amount of data for one day. Even Washington, D.C. got polled, for the first time ever in this election cycle. It's easy to see why D.C. doesn't get polled much, since the outcome isn't exactly in doubt -- the spread in this poll is greater than any other state at 82% for Barack Obama and a paltry 13% for John McCain.