Archive of Articles in the "2008 Electoral Math" Category

Addendum -- Flood Of New State Polls

[ Posted Thursday, September 18th, 2008 – 23:04 UTC ]

Yesterday, I did a roundup of the state polls and the electoral math outlook for the presidential race. Today, I checked the numbers as I do every morning, and over thirty states had new poll numbers -- an astonishing amount of data for one day. Even Washington, D.C. got polled, for the first time ever in this election cycle. It's easy to see why D.C. doesn't get polled much, since the outcome isn't exactly in doubt -- the spread in this poll is greater than any other state at 82% for Barack Obama and a paltry 13% for John McCain.

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Electoral Math Checkup -- Obama's Low Point?

[ Posted Wednesday, September 17th, 2008 – 15:33 UTC ]

Barack Obama has had a hard few weeks in the polls. In fact, this week's check of how the electoral math plays out may (hopefully) be his lowest point during the campaign.

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Electoral Math -- Obama Sure Could Use A Bump

[ Posted Wednesday, August 20th, 2008 – 15:25 UTC ]

It's time once again to take a look at how the electoral math is shaping up for Barack Obama and John McCain. While the news this time around isn't all that great for Obama, I wanted to take another of these snapshots of the polls -- before the running mates are announced and before the conventions happen -- in order to provide a statistical baseline to see how big a "bump" in the polls either candidate will get in the next few weeks. My analysis in short: while the news isn't dire quite yet, Obama could certainly use such a bump at this point.

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Electoral Math Charts Updated

[ Posted Wednesday, August 6th, 2008 – 16:12 UTC ]

It's time once again to take a look at the Electoral College math from state-level polling. Nationwide polls are not completely meaningless, but they are pretty irrelevant -- because that's not how we elect a president. You have to win enough states to get more than half the electoral votes in the Electoral College. While many would like to change this system, it's what we've got for the 2008 election, and so looking at the state-level polling is much more important to figure out where the race is right now, and what the trends are.

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Charting The Electoral Math Looks Good For Obama

[ Posted Monday, July 21st, 2008 – 14:42 UTC ]

Now, I don't want anyone to be swept up in untimely exuberance, and firmly caution against prematurely popping champagne corks here. There's a lot of time left in this race, and anything can happen. But things are undeniably looking good for Obama's chances of winning versus McCain's.

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Electoral Math, From Knucklebiter To Landslide

[ Posted Monday, June 30th, 2008 – 15:30 UTC ]

For the first time in the general election campaign, I am ready to take a look at the electoral map and do some electoral math. Now, we're still pretty far out from Election Day, so likely any of these guesses will be laughably wrong when it rolls around. But we've got to start somewhere.

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The 269-269 Electoral Tie Scenario

[ Posted Wednesday, June 11th, 2008 – 16:17 UTC ]

Last Sunday on the political talk shows, I noticed an interesting thing. An electoral math scenario for the outcome of the election in the Electoral College is being floated by some pundits: what happens if we get a 269-269 tie? I've noticed it more from right-wing commentators than left, but I think its true appeal is to the political wonk of either stripe -- a "what if" game to make this already exciting election even more so.

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