Congress is back in Washington this week, and they'll soon be starting to put some actual numbers in their aspirational budget. This is going to involve a whole lot of intraparty struggles for Republicans, as different factions draw red lines on different issues. They've set an optimistic timeline for finishing, but it remains to be seen whether Republicans will be able to agree on all of the details in time to meet that schedule.

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Let's start with some good news today, shall we?

Donald Trump's second-term honeymoon phase now seems to officially be over. As new polling continues to roll in (in advance of his 100-day mark next week), it seems to all be telling pretty much the same story. Trump is now in a neck-and-neck race for "fastest slide into disapproval ever" -- with himself. Only one other president in modern times has seen his job approval numbers with the public go underwater this fast, and his name was also Donald Trump (in his first term). It depends on the poll, but in some he's already worse than he was at this point in 2017. No other president was even in negative territory at this point, it bears mentioning.

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There's a new poll out from the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania which has some interesting data -- interesting both for what the data says about American public opinion as well as interesting because of the specific questions that were asked. Most public opinion surveys limit themselves to a few key indicators (presidential job approval being the biggest one), but this poll seemed designed to address some pertinent current issues in much more depth.

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The Pentagon, under the "leadership" of Pete Hegseth, seems to be in meltdown mode. That specific word was used by several different people to describe it, I should mention, lest I be accused of being hyperbolic. This news kind of surprised me, because while I fully did expect there to be Pentagon-meltdown stories before now, I expected them to come from a different direction entirely. I thought Elon Musk and his minions would have taken the chainsaw to the entire Pentagon structure and procurement process and it would have blown up in their faces (much like many of their other efforts has) and thus be a big scandal. But so far, that hasn't happened in a big way. Maybe Musk has been told "hands off the Pentagon" or something? At this point, it's hard to tell.

But getting back to the actual scandal (rather than my expectations of a scandal), Pete Hegseth seems once again to be teetering on the edge of becoming more trouble than he is worth to the White House. What's more, this seems to be the result of a power struggle not between Hegseth's own personal minions and the entrenched bureaucracy at the Pentagon (as might have been expected), but it seems to be coming entirely from within Hegseth's inner circle itself. Which is also kind of surprising.

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This weekend will mark the end of the third month of Donald Trump's second term in office. Only 45 more fun-filled months to go!

Sorry if that's a bit disheartening, but at this point it's hard to find much in the way of optimism in the political world. And we're certainly not alone in this view.

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American politics, for better or worse, is built on a two-party system that is occasionally challenged by independent third parties, who never have much in the way of notable successes. How many members of Congress are there from the Green Party? How many did H. Ross Perot get elected when he launched the most successful third-party bid for the White House in a generation? The answer to both is, of course, "zero." Third parties can change the political conversation in major ways (and occasionally even move the "Overton Window" in a big way), but so far none of them has built up enough success to truly challenge the dominance of the Republican/Democratic dichotomy. Instead, what is much more common is one (or both) of the two major parties being dramatically changed from within.

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James Carville's famous political maxim ("It's the economy, stupid") needs updating. As we all ride out the Trump Slump in various ways, what we've got now is: "It's the stupid economy." The people running things are stupid. They are making stupid decisions. They have no clue whatsoever what they are doing, and it shows. Stupid is as stupid does. Welcome to The Stupid Economy, folks.

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Senator Ted Cruz is attempting to tackle a problem, but I for one don't expect to see the problem solved any time soon. That "any time" was a joke, actually, because the intractable problem is none other than time itself. The Senate Commerce Committee (which Cruz chairs) just held a hearing on whether they should (as they're now calling it) "lock the clock" and finally be done with the twice-yearly hour shift in the clock to either start or end Daylight Saving Time.

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What exactly is the point of the Trump trade war? Asking this question to different people in the White House gets you different answers, and Trump himself (as usual) contradicts himself almost daily, attempting to have things both ways. The clueless nature of the entire exercise is becoming more and more apparent as the first week of the Trump trade war draws to a close.

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Well, not really, not yet -- not enough to justify that particular word, but hey, we couldn't resist....

While it doesn't rise to the level of a "revolt" quite yet, there is already a significant pushback on the Trump tariff war coming from within the ranks of his own party. One Senate bill to rein in the tariffs already passed with four Republican votes, and that number has now grown to seven GOP senators who are cosponsoring an even wider clawback of the constitutional power of levying taxes from the White House. Significantly, now a House Republican has said he's going to introduce a companion bill in the House.

This isn't enough -- not yet, at any rate. But it is rather surprising to see happen so quickly. But then this whole self-inflicted economic crisis has been moving rather swiftly all around, so perhaps it's not that surprising to see.

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