After another 24 hours of rapidly-unfolding developments, we thought it was worth taking another look at where things stand. Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement yesterday between Iran and Israel, and after a shaky start (with both sides accusing the other of breaking the ceasefire) it seems to be holding for now. It also seems that Iran will not retaliate further against the United States, after a rather pro forma attack on a U.S. base in Qatar. And today, details leaked of an intelligence assessment that shows the result of the American attack on Iran's nuclear program may not have been "obliteration" (as Trump and others have claimed), but rather just "set back by months."

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We stand at a turning point, but as is common at such a juncture, nobody knows exactly what is going to come next. By bombing Iran's nuclear facilities, the United States is now at war, but what that will mean going forward is really anyone's guess right now.

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Maybe Donald Trump missed his calling in life. Maybe he secretly dreams of running a car dealership lot. Previously, he turned the White House lawn into a showroom for Teslas (as he showed his tenuous grasp of the English language, saying: "It's all computer!"). Now he has erected two very tall flagpoles on the White House grounds, complete with the sort of giant flag one usually sees from a highway to signify an auto dealership. Which means our title this week pretty much had to be based on the maxim: "Let's run it up the flagpole and see who salutes!"

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Next month, America will celebrate its 249th birthday on July 4th. But the rest of the world will be much more concerned with what happens five days later, on July 9th. That is the deadline for Donald Trump's 90-day "pause" in what he calls his "reciprocal tariffs" on the rest of the world. Either countries have a new trade deal in place with the U.S. by that date, or else steep tariffs will once again be imposed upon them.

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Today Donald Trump was asked whether he had made the decision to attack Iran's nuclear sites or not. He answered with perhaps the truest words he has ever spoken: "You don't seriously think I'm going to answer that question. You don't know that I'm going to even do it. You know, I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do." It's hard to disagree with that, really.

But the subject deserves more than just snark, since it is a serious decision Trump has to make -- and it would be an equally tough decision for any U.S. president to have to make. Entering the country into a war is always a serious decision, and it should be treated as such by all concerned.

The stakes are high. There are valid arguments to be made on both sides of the issue. Whatever Trump decides, it will come with some degree of risk -- both for the country and for him politically.

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Donald Trump, once again, seems to be experiencing a case of "crowd size envy" in a big way. Or perhaps "in a little way" would be more appropriate? The White House confidently reported that 250,000 people showed up to view the Dear Leader's birthday military extravaganza, but the only way you can believe that figure is if you avoid seeing any of the actual photos of the crowd.

If this all sounds familiar, it should. It was in fact the premiere bit of idiocy from Trump's first term, when he claimed that a record crowd of a bazillion people (or whatever it was, I am too lazy to look it up, sorry) attended his inauguration when the photos showed one of the lightest inauguration turnouts in modern history. Thus began the "Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?" theme that continues to this day from Trump.

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Donald Trump bent to reality last week, issuing an order that amounts to a stunning turnaround on his "mass deportation" policy. Instead of rounding up every undocumented immigrant in sight everywhere, ICE will now back off on raiding farms, meatpacking plants, hotels, and restaurants. Because the reality of the situation is that if you removed all the undocumented immigrants from these industries, they would essentially grind to a halt. Which Trump has (thankfully) now finally realized.

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It has been a week of dangerous precedents being set -- and it's not over yet.

One precedent that didn't get much media attention (but which is truly disturbing) was Donald Trump giving a nakedly political speech to American soldiers in uniform, where he pre-screened the crowd for both looks and ideology. One memo sent out before Trump arrived specified: "No fat soldiers." Another stated: "if soldiers have political views that are in opposition to the current administration and they don't want to be in the audience, then they need to speak with their leadership and get swapped out."

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The most important battle over immigration policy isn't being fought on the streets of Los Angeles right now, but rather over the airwaves. This is the fight for public opinion, and it could go either way. If the public largely sides with Trump's immigration tactics, it will strengthen his hand. But if the public decides the tactics go too far then it will weaken him in the long run. How the events of this week are ultimately seen by the public could be the deciding factor. Is Donald Trump and his administration doing what the voters elected him to do, or is he vastly overreaching in a dictatorial fashion? That's the entire rhetorical battle in a nutshell.

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We seem to be quickly headed for a confluence of events that is going to produce a rather shocking split-screen moment next weekend. We could be simultaneously watching a parade that is ostensibly being given for the celebration of the U.S. Army's 250th anniversary, while we also watch the national military being deployed on the streets of American cities. That's a jarring contrast, you have to admit.

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