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2012 Electoral Math -- One Week Out

[ Posted Monday, October 29th, 2012 – 16:31 PDT ]

Are you worried that Frankenstorm will restrict your access to up-to-date polling numbers? Do you know more about the state of the race in places you’ve never been to, but haven’t decided what to do for Hallowe’en yet? Then you have come to the right place! With one week to go before Election Day dawns, the race for president is about as tight as it can get, so let's get right to it.

First, a look at the overall state of the electoral math:

Electoral Math By Percent

[Click on any of theses graphs to see larger-scale versions.]

Things stayed pretty close to where they were last week (note: due to the final debate, last week's column ran on Tuesday, so you may have missed it). Barack Obama's overall electoral vote ("EV") total spiked upwards, then fell back, and finished at 280 EV, one down from where he started. Mitt Romney's total spiked way down, but then partially recovered by week's end, to close at 235 EV, down from 244 EV. The number of states perfectly tied stayed high, going from 13 EV to 34 EV, before falling back to 23 EV at the end. Percentage-wise, this left Obama at 52.0 percent of the overall Electoral College, while Romney fell back to 43.7 percent.

Eleven states moved around in the categories this week, which was mostly bad (but not terrible) news for Obama. Obama lost ground, but held onto, two states (Minnesota and New Mexico), while losing two to "Tied" (Iowa and New Hampshire). The only good news for Obama was flipping Colorado from Romney, but Obama only holds a thin lead here which could easily change back. Mitt Romney got good news in two of his states, and bad news in one, as Arizona and Tennessee firmed up and Montana weakened. Tennessee hadn't had a poll in a very long time, though, so this probably doesn't represent any real movement, just a reality that had been there all along. Still, it's good news for Romney who maintained his hold on all three states. Three states moved, but then moved back, leaving them where they started. Wisconsin firmed up for Obama, but then weakened in a subsequent poll; North Carolina slipped from Romney into a tie, but then drifted back; and Virginia briefly went from Tied to Obama, but then fell back again.

Romney's dip, in the chart above, was due to losing North Carolina and Colorado. His partial recovery was picking North Carolina back up again. Obama gained ground by briefly holding Virginia. When he lost it back to Tied, he also lost Iowa, but gained Colorado to partially offset the loss. At the very end, he lost New Hampshire to Tied. There are three states currently in the Tied category, Iowa, Virginia, and New Hampshire, for a total of 23 EV.

Let's take a closer look at the movement for each candidate, starting with Mitt Romney:

Romney Electoral Math

[Definition of terms: "Strong" means 10% or better in the polls,
"Weak" means 5% or better, and "Barely" is under five percent.
]

Mitt Romney showed some strengthening among his base "red" states, but actually lost ground overall this week. Overall, he ended the week down by nine EV due to the loss of Colorado to Obama. Romney had some movement in his "Strong" numbers, as first he lost Montana and then gained Tennessee. This was a net gain for Romney, from 134 EV to 142 EV. Romney's "Weak" numbers also managed to grow over the week, from 46 EV all the way up to 60 EV before falling back to 49 EV. This pushed Romney's critical "Strong Plus Weak" line up to 191 EV, which he hasn't seen since the beginning of this month. Firming up Arizona added the 11 EV Romney gained here over last week.

This puts Romney in good (but not great) shape with one week to go. He has made up the ground he lost among his base over the month, but he still has never broken the barrier of polling ahead in states which add up to 250 EV, much less the 270 EV he needs to win.

Which brings us to how Obama's doing:

Obama 2012 Electoral Math

Overall, Obama stayed about the same, but what must be worrying Team Obama right now is that he seems to be weakening in some of his base "blue" states. That's a bad trend, one week out. For the week, Obama only lost one EV from his total. Obama, however, lost 15 EV from his Strong category, with the weakening of New Mexico and Minnesota. This brought his Strong number down from 210 EV to 195 EV at week's end. Obama was up briefly in Weak with the addition of Wisconsin, until it slipped back to "Barely." At the end, Minnesota also slipped into Barely, completing a one-week slide down from Strong Obama, which, again must be a little disconcerting for Obama fans. As a result, Obama's Strong Plus Weak ended down 10 EV this week to close out at 227 EV. The one bit of good news overall for Obama was capturing Colorado's 9 EV, but he's got a pretty tenuous hold on the state.

This all puts Obama in better shape than Romney, but neither candidate's position could be called "commanding" at this point. Four years ago, when I wrote my penultimate "Electoral Math" column, I subtitled it "Obama Has Closed The Deal." Needless to say, that wasn't a viable option this time around. While I'm usually skeptical of all the "it's going to be a close close race" nonsense from the mainstream media, this time around they may actually be right. The race is one whale of a lot tighter than it was in 2008 at this point, to put it another way.

 

My Picks

Onward to the part of the program where the deciding factor can be not just a poll number, but how my gut feels about a particular state. As always, the categories here are different to avoid confusion with the hard data above. Full lists of states in all my categories are provided at the end, as well.

 

Likely States -- Obama

Safe Obama (18 states, 227 EV)
One state moves into "Safe Obama" this week, while another moves out. Minnesota can't really be seen as Safe anymore, so it's going to move down a bit. But my gut tells me that the race is pretty much in the bag for Obama in Pennsylvania, so I'm going to consider it Safe for now. Because Pennsylvania has twice Minnesota's 10 EV, Obama gains a bit here this week.

Probable Obama (3 states, 26 EV)
While Pennsylvania moves up from "Probable Obama," Minnesota swaps places with it. While Obama has gotten some bad polling of late in Minnesota, I still feel pretty good about his chances there, and so can't really see the state as a tossup yet. Nevada and Wisconsin both stay stable here this week, because I'm still feeling optimistic about both of them.

 

Likely States -- Romney

Safe Romney (21 states, 170 EV)
While the polling doesn't actually merit it, I'm still going to move Georgia up to Safe Romney this week, as I think Romney's going to win in a cakewalk here.

Probable Romney (2 states, 21 EV)
While Georgia moves up to Safe, Arizona moves up to take its place, as it firms up for Romney. Missouri stays put.

 

Tossup States

Lean Obama (3 states, 31 EV)
Two states change places here this week, as Iowa moves down to "Too Close To Call" while Colorado moves up from the same category. This is truly where gut feelings come into play, I should mention. New Hampshire and Ohio stay as "Lean Obama" this week, even though a case could be made that either could be considered a true tossup. I feel good about Obama's chances in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Ohio. I feel less good about his chances in Iowa. We're into tossing darts at the wall here, folks.

Lean Romney (1 state, 15 EV)
Arizona moved up to Probable Romney from this category this week, but I'm moving Florida down to Too Close To Call. I know, Florida has looked like Romney territory all month, but the polls have stayed incredibly tight, so perhaps Obama's response to a hurricane might help him with Floridians, who knows? At least until next week, we're moving Florida to tossup status. North Carolina stays as Lean Romney, although a case could be made that it belongs in Too Close To Call as well.

Too Close To Call (3 states, 48 EV)
Florida moves down from Lean Romney, and Iowa moves down from Lean Obama. To round out Too Close To Call, Virginia stays razor-close, with no clear lead shown by either candidate.

 

Final Tally

This is the last time we're going to provide such an exhaustive look at the polling, we should mention, because next Monday we're going to just dive in and make our predictions for how the 2012 election is going to happen, state by state.

The hard polling numbers show Obama maintaining a lead, but not an overwhelming one. Obama holds 280 EV to Romney's 235 EV, a lead of 45 EV. This is up from last week, when Obama only led Romney by 37 EV. But in Strong Plus Weak, Obama's 227 EV over Romney's 191 EV shows only a 36 EV lead, which is down from last week's 57 EV, and little more than half of Obama's lead from two weeks ago of 67 EV.

The race tightens. Obama, in my estimation, has 21 states with 253 EV comfortably in his column. Mitt Romney has secured 23 states for 191 EV. This shows a healthier lead of 62 EV for Obama, which is down from last week's 73 EV lead.

Still, Obama retains the edge. From the 94 EV in the seven tossup states, Obama only needs 17 EV to be re-inaugurated. Mitt Romney needs 79 EV to win. If Obama wins either Florida or Ohio, the election may essentially be over at that point. Even if Obama loses both large states, he still has multiple paths to victory. Romney pretty much has only one path: a last-minute surge which breaks all the undecideds in almost all of the tossup states his way. The problem for Obama is, this is now looking quite possible instead of ludicrously unlikely.

Frankenstorm Sandy may impact voters' feelings at the last minute, but the real sword of Damocles hanging over the White House right now is this Friday's release of the October unemployment figures. If the numbers are bad, it could give Romney the last-second momentum he needs. If the numbers are good, Obama could waltz to victory. Stay tuned....

 

[Electoral Vote Data:]
(State electoral votes are in parenthesis following each state's name. Washington D.C. is counted as a state. This column series relies on Electoral-Vote.com for state polling data, as we did four years ago.)

Barack Obama Likely Easy Wins -- 21 States -- 253 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 18 States -- 227 Electoral Votes
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington D.C. (3), Washington (12)

Probable States -- 3 States -- 26 Electoral Votes
Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), Wisconsin (10)

 

Mitt Romney Likely Easy Wins -- 23 States -- 191 Electoral Votes:

Safe States -- 21 States -- 170 Electoral Votes
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)

Probable States -- 2 States -- 21 Electoral Votes
Arizona (11), Missouri (10)

 

Tossup States -- 7 States -- 94 Electoral Votes:

Tossup States Leaning Obama -- 3 States -- 31 Electoral Votes
Colorado (9), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18)

Tossup States Leaning Romney -- 1 State -- 15 Electoral Votes
North Carolina (15)

Too Close To Call -- 3 States -- 48 Electoral Votes
Florida (29), Iowa (6), Virginia (13)

 

No polling data since August:
(States which have not been polled since the beginning of September, with the dates of their last poll)

South Carolina (1/13), Alabama (8/16), Vermont (8/21), West Virginia (8/25)

No polling data at all, yet:
(States which have not been polled so far this year)

Alaska, Delaware, Kansas, Mississippi, Wyoming

 

Electoral Math Column Series Archive:

[Oct 23] [Oct 15] [Oct 08] [Sep 26] [Sep 17] [Aug 22] [Aug 8] [Jul 18] [Jun 25]

 

-- Chris Weigant

 

Cross-posted at Business Insider
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

48 Comments on “2012 Electoral Math -- One Week Out”

  1. [1] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    the real sword of Damocles hanging over the White House right now is this Friday's release of the October unemployment figures.

    if i were romney right now i'd be telling all my business buddies to start firing people right away.

    if i were obama right now i'd be pulling every favor with the labor bureau to get them to fudge the statistics.

  2. [2] 
    Michale wrote:

    Romney pretty much has only one path: a last-minute surge which breaks all the undecideds in almost all of the tossup states his way. The problem for Obama is, this is now looking quite possible instead of ludicrously unlikely.

    Exactly....

    Especially when one considers that, historically speaking, last minute undecided voters usually go for the challenger, rather than the incumbent...

    I am confident of this that I'll re-iterate my challenge to Weigantians...

    If Obama wins, I will up my per comment donation from .50 to $1 per comment during the Annual Weigantia Holiday Fundraiser...

    If Romney wins, everyone who does 100% matching donations will match my total for 200%....

    Who's in??? :D

    Michale.....

  3. [3] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Michale,

    You can count me in! Chris takes installments, right?

  4. [4] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Based on polls and reports from early voting, it looks like Florida and North Carolina are the 2 battleground States Obama is most likely to lose (although his early voting numbers in NC are very strong). It will take something unforeseen happening for him to lose the other battlegrounds (Virginia and Colorado are close but trending O in the past week).

    I am going to stick with my earlier prediction that Romney will win NC but lose Florida and lose every other battleground. I may change this nearer the election (either way for both NC and Florida), will see ;)

    The Senate is looking very good and that Democrats might actually increase their lead there. Tea-party Senate candidates were not a good idea for the Republicans...

  5. [5] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    michty6 -

    Obama charted one fairly good poll in NC recently. It was probably an outlier, but I'm keeping a close eye on it. Virginia is the most interesting one, to me at least, because if O wins there, it could go reliably "blue" for the foreseeable future. Which is astounding to me, but then I haven't been in VA in quite a while.

    VA stunned me in 2008 -- the state with the Confederate capital going for a black candidate. How times have changed...

    Dems might increase in the Senate? Really? Haven't been paying as much attention to that, I should check it out...

    -CW

  6. [6] 
    Michale wrote:

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx

    Very interesting to note..

    In the early votes, Romney is up by 7 points. 52% Romney, 45% Obama..

    Keep in mind, this is NOT polling, this is FACT....

    It's doubly devastating for Obama because, normally, early voters swing Left, not Right. That's why Dems are so worried about Hurricane Sandy..

    If Obama is ALREADY in trouble in the EARLY voting, the he doesn't stand a chance in the regular election...

    Michale.....

  7. [7] 
    Michale wrote:

    But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.

    Obama is toast...

    Michale

  8. [8] 
    Michale wrote:

    Liz,

    Sounds great! :D

    Either way, it's going to be a banner crop for Weigantia... :D

    Michale.....

  9. [9] 
    Michale wrote:

    Obama accepts 'Osama bin Laden' donations
    http://www.wnd.com/2012/10/obama-accepts-osama-bin-laden-donations/

    How hilarious...

    What would have made the story more effective is if (tortured syntax?? :D) WND would have tried the same ploy with Camp Romney... :D

    Michale.......

  10. [10] 
    Michale wrote:

    if i were obama right now i'd be pulling every favor with the labor bureau to get them to fudge the statistics.

    Obama is already working on that. He is trying to get his Labor Department to delay release of the new numbers until after the election..

    Michale.....

  11. [11] 
    Michale wrote:

    http://www.caintv.com/ShockerDesMoinesRegisterendors-647

    For Obama, the hits just keep on comin'!!

    Michale....

  12. [12] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Michale,

    I wouldn't rely too much on Gallup (or, for that matter, favour 1 pollster over another). When you having 20 pollsters saying X and 1 saying Y it is pretty clear which is the outlier.

    I get that both sides are trying to push the 'we have the lead' card but right-wing media are skewing everything so badly that it is going to leave a lot of angry people on Nov 7th after weeks of 'we're winning' and it turns out they lose...

  13. [13] 
    michty6 wrote:

    VA stunned me in 2008

    Obama is polling very strongly there now but it is close. Last 5 polls (from TPM):
    O+3, O+4, Tie, Tie, Tied.

    Pretty much the only polls to put Romney up in Virginia recently are the Fox and Rasmussen ones.

    But obviously VA was hit hard last night and today - this will obviously impact Obama more

    Dems might increase in the Senate? Really?

    Yeh you use electoral-vote.com for your predictions right? Just now they show D 53, 1 tie and GOP 46. If you click on the Rasmussen-free maps it gets better - D 54 with 1 tie!

  14. [14] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Also it seems like Chris Christie formally kicked off his 2016 Presidential campaign today...

  15. [15] 
    Michale wrote:

    I wouldn't rely too much on Gallup (or, for that matter, favour 1 pollster over another). When you having 20 pollsters saying X and 1 saying Y it is pretty clear which is the outlier.

    Which is exactly my point...

    20 polls (including the Poll Of Polls) say Romney has the advantage and one poll says that Obama has the advantage...

    It's a moot point since all polls are shit anyways...

    In early voting (which usually favors Dems), Romney is ahead by 7%...

    That's not a poll... That's a fact...

    Michale.....

  16. [16] 
    michty6 wrote:

    In early voting (which usually favors Dems), Romney is ahead by 7%...
    That's not a poll... That's a fact..

    Lol you are joking right? Your use of the word 'fact' gets more and more stretched with every post on here!

  17. [17] 
    Michale wrote:

    Lol you are joking right? Your use of the word 'fact' gets more and more stretched with every post on here!

    People were asked how the VOTED, not how they are GOING to vote..

    That's the difference that makes ALL the difference...

    I know it's hard for you to accept, but Obama is not going to win re-election....

    Michale.....

  18. [18] 
    Michale wrote:

    http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/30/michael-moore-moveon-org-video-features-dirty-mouthed-old-people-lambasting-republicans-romney/

    What IS it about the Left that they think such antics are appropriate???

    First we have Obama saying that Romney is a "bullshitter" and now this load of garbage...

    I thought the Left was all about diversity and respect for differing opinions???

    What gives???

    Michale.....

  19. [19] 
    Michale wrote:

    "Please stay inside and keep watch on ready.gov for the latest."
    -President Barack Obama

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/83024.html?hp=l10

    Poor planning on the part of Obama's FEMA....

    Michale

  20. [20] 
    michty6 wrote:

    People were asked how the VOTED, not how they are GOING to vote.

    Yes indeed, they were POLLED on how they voted. And all polls show Obama is ahead in early voters by a big margin - Gallup is (once more) an outlier in this regard.

    I just thought it was funny that you stated that Romney was ahead 7% was a 'fact', as if Gallup had opened all the ballots themselves to verify this lol.

    I thought the Left was all about diversity and respect for differing opinions?

    Yeh I guess people get pretty angry when you try to take away their constitutional rights. I don't think anyone anywhere on the left has respect for people trying to rig elections. That isn't anything to do with 'diversity' or 'respect'.

    Poor planning on the part of Obama's FEMA

    Lol here we go again. Another desperate Benghazi-like Fox news story is brewing...

  21. [21] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Btw Michale what do you make of Romney's 'kitchen-sink' Jeep lie in Ohio? I think it's time for him to pull out of there as what slim chance he had he just threw away. Someone with a credibility issue who runs this advert has basically just given Obama a free-be. If I was Obama I'd pull out of there, it's in the bag now, Romney self-destructed on this one. Imo obviously.

  22. [22] 
    Michale wrote:

    Yes indeed, they were POLLED on how they voted. And all polls show Obama is ahead in early voters by a big margin - Gallup is (once more) an outlier in this regard.

    I posted the link that shows Romney ahead in early voting..

    Where's your link that shows Obama ahead??

    Yeh I guess people get pretty angry when you try to take away their constitutional rights. I don't think anyone anywhere on the left has respect for people trying to rig elections. That isn't anything to do with 'diversity' or 'respect'.

    It has EVERYTHING to do with diversity and respect..

    The fact that you mis-characterize it as taking away people's rights simply proves my point..

    Especially coming from you, who is on record as wanting to take away people's freedom of speech.. :D

    Lol here we go again. Another desperate Benghazi-like Fox news story is brewing...

    Yep, the same type of Fox News Benghazi NO PROTEST story that was dead on balls accurate, a fact you simply CANNOT deny...

    How else would YOU characterize Obama telling people without power to log onto ready.gov for information???

    But, speaking of Benghazi... Contrast Obama's timid lack of response to American's being killed to Reagan's gutsy call in Grenada in 1983....

    Now THAT was leadership....

    Michale.....

  23. [23] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Michale,
    I posted the link that shows Romney ahead in early voting..
    Where's your link that shows Obama ahead?

    Well I can't post more than one link but here are a couple of the latest national pollsters on early voting:
    PPP: 59-41 Obama
    Reuters/Ipsos: 58-39 Obama

    If you look inside the State pollsters you can find them. eg. today's SurveryUSA Florida poll = 57-42 Obama.

    I've mentioned this so many times, just favouring one pollster and one set of data (that coincidentally supports the view of the election that you want) is statistical suicide. The info is out there if you're not too lazy to find it ;)

    How else would YOU characterize Obama telling people without power to log onto ready.gov for information?

    I don't know, maybe I'd say a 'President who lives in the 21st century and knows that people have these things called 'cell phones' that can be used for internet communications when all other lines of communications are down' lol

  24. [24] 
    Michale wrote:

    No matter how you try to spin it, Obama screwed up on Benghazi..

    There were DOZENS of options Obama could have done...

    The ONE *WORST* possible option was to do nothing and let Americans die..

    And THAT's the option that Obama chose...

    ALL partisanship aside, Obama screwed up...

    Period...

    No other logical conclusion is possible...

    Michale.....

  25. [25] 
    Michale wrote:

    I don't know, maybe I'd say a 'President who lives in the 21st century and knows that people have these things called 'cell phones' that can be used for internet communications when all other lines of communications are down' lol

    Cell towers have been destroyed....

    You DO understand the severity of a Hurricane, right??

    Well, yer not alone..

    Apparently, Obama doesn't understand it either...

    Michale.....

  26. [26] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Btw by most accounts (polls etc) the only battlegrounds Romney is (was) ahead of Obama in early voting were Colorado and Florida. Colorado is close but I think Romney is probably still marginally ahead.

    Florida, however, moved to Obama when in-person voting began Monday Democrats wiped out the absentee voting GOP lead in Florida in 2 days (in 2008 it took them 7). This is a right-leaning paper btw, you can tell by the language that they are trying to put the best spin on this they can:

    http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/with-22m-floridians-having-voted-a-quarter-of-electorate-dems-lead-reps-by-more-than-31000-ballots.html

  27. [27] 
    Michale wrote:

    I've mentioned this so many times, just favouring one pollster and one set of data (that coincidentally supports the view of the election that you want) is statistical suicide. The info is out there if you're not too lazy to find it ;)

    And yet, Romney is going to win...

    When that comes to pass, will you admit you were wrong?? :D

    Yea... When monkees fly outta my butt... :D

    Michale....

  28. [28] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Hey Michale you skipped [21]

  29. [29] 
    michty6 wrote:

    PS. If you don't know what I'm talking about in [21] since I doubt it's covered in right-wing land here is the story: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57542594/chrysler-ceo-jeep-not-moving-to-china/

    Chrysler CEO:
    "Jeep assembly lines will remain in operation in the United States and will constitute the backbone of the brand.

    It is inaccurate to suggest anything different."

    At least he was kind enough to use the term 'inaccurate' and not something like 'flat out lie' or 'complete made up bullshit' which I would've been tempted to do if I were as pissed off as he probably is by this Romney lie...

  30. [30] 
    Michale wrote:

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/30/hurricane-puts-race-in-holding-pattern/

    Ya gotta hand it to FNC..

    If one actually CONSIDERS their words, rather than just write them off as partisan BS, FNC makes a LOT of sense to everyday Americans..

    Michale.....

  31. [31] 
    Michale wrote:

    Hey Michale you skipped [21]

    Here's a thought.. JUST a thought, mind you...

    Why don't we dispense with the whose right/whose wrong debate until a week from right now...

    Then, it will be obvious as to who is right and who is wrong... :D

    Michale.....

  32. [32] 
    Michale wrote:

    http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2012/10/30/msnbc-trashes-romney-collecting-food-and-supplies-sandy-victims#ixzz2Aoy9BldZ

    Ahhhhhhh Ya gotta love the "unbiased" MSM, eh?? :D

    It would be so comical, if it wasn't so tragic and sad...

    Michale..

  33. [33] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Well Romney did, by many accounts, run a campaign event pretending it was a hurricane relief effort. Yes it wasn't a normal campaign event but they did far too many things that you could just call it a relief event.

    Btw I think Romney will move out of Ohio now. From reports I've seen he is targeting Pennsylvania instead - even he is perhaps smart enough to realise how much he just blew Ohio (last 5 OH polls: O+3, O+3, O+3, O+5, O+5). PA is his best change of getting the 18 EV he completely threw out the window, although Super-Pacs will have wasted a lot of money with ad buys in OH!

  34. [34] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Btw this: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html is a good page to look at early voting.

    I'll save you some time: Democrats are ahead in voter registration numbers for early voting everywhere except Colorado. Republicans reduced the lead yesterday but not by much. Here is where Democrats are in comparison to 2008:

    NC - D+18% (2008 - 16.4%)
    NV - D+7.1% (2008 - 8%)
    IA - D+12.1% (2008 - 12.7%)
    FL - D+1.4% (2008 - R+1.4%!)
    CO - R+2.8% (2008 - R+1%)

    So NV and IA are running below 2008 numbers in D early voting; NC above; FL waaaay above as is CO. Based on this data, FL is almost certainly in play and CO is in play for Republicans.

    OH you have to go through by county. If anyone knows a site where they are doing this please put it here!

  35. [35] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Expect to see Romney et al campaigning hard in Florida soon. It is very much in play and without it Romney is toast.

  36. [36] 
    michty6 wrote:

    (5 most recent Florida polls: O+1, O+1, R+1, O+1, O+2 - ruh roh!)

  37. [37] 
    michty6 wrote:

    GM Spokesman: At this stage, we're looking at Hubble telescope-length distances between campaign ads and reality.

    Oh. Snap.

  38. [38] 
    Michale wrote:

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/petraeus-and-panetta-speak-not-president_659902.html

    Obama is not going to be re-elected..

    It's that simple...

    Michale.....

  39. [39] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    In the early votes, Romney is up by 7 points. 52% Romney, 45% Obama..

    Keep in mind, this is NOT polling, this is FACT....

    It's doubly devastating for Obama because, normally, early voters swing Left, not Right.

    while romney may yet prevail, it is unlikely that this particular statistic would cause obama any concern whatsoever. of the thirty or so states that have early voting, about two thirds of them are solidly red, while only california, illinois and maine are blue. all the other solidly blue states don't have in-person early voting.

    therefore, although it is not surprising at all that a majority of early voters overall would be republican, that figure may not be as meaningful as you think. the early voting results that might be more indicative of the outcome of the race are the state-by-state figures in ohio, florida, nevada, colorado, iowa, new hampshire and north carolina.

    ~joshua

  40. [40] 
    Michale wrote:

    while romney may yet prevail, it is unlikely that this particular statistic would cause obama any concern whatsoever. of the thirty or so states that have early voting, about two thirds of them are solidly red, while only california, illinois and maine are blue. all the other solidly blue states don't have in-person early voting.

    Yet DEMOCRAT early voting is down 70% from 2008...

    Now, if you don't believe that THAT is causing Obama some sleepless nights, I have some swampland in Florida I wanna sell you.. :D

    Michale.....

  41. [41] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    Yet DEMOCRAT early voting is down 70% from 2008...

    again, i'd warn you against being overenthusiastic about whichever statistic you're interpreting. in 2008 the enthusiasm for obama was staggeringly high, so a big drop-off may not necessarily signal a losing election, just a much closer one. my perception is that romney has more of an electoral chance than some polls may anticipate, but it's not going to be a blow-out either way.

    ~joshua

  42. [42] 
    Michale wrote:

    again, i'd warn you against being overenthusiastic about whichever statistic you're interpreting. in 2008 the enthusiasm for obama was staggeringly high, so a big drop-off may not necessarily signal a losing election, just a much closer one. my perception is that romney has more of an electoral chance than some polls may anticipate, but it's not going to be a blow-out either way.

    True... But regardless, it STILL has to have Obama worried regarding the precipitous drop in DEM enthusiasm...

    Remember, Obama is in a bubble, where all his advisors are telling him things are "peachy keen wonderful".. As my lovely wife would say.. :D

    Michale...

  43. [43] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Michale

    I mean this discussion is just another example of you cherry picking polls while claiming you don't believe in polls.

    On that note, today was probably the worst batch of polls Romney has seen in a long time. He is back to pre-debate-1 levels of polling.

    I wonder if Republicans will blame Hurricane Sandy for the loss. I could actually see that coming: 'Obama was saved by Hurricane Sandy! The lies and incompetence of Romney were nothing to do with it...'

  44. [44] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Also, while on the subject of pollsters, in before Rasmussen goes with something between 'Tied' to 'Obama + 2' on election night to protect their credibility (at least in national polls, their State polls were about 5% out last time and they don't have any credibility in those)...

  45. [45] 
    michty6 wrote:

    PS. One last comment on Gallup's trackers. They also currently say that the unemployment rate in America is 7.1%. LOL.

    Ironically, if this were what was announced on Friday their Presidential polls would turn out to be even more considerably wrong that they are just now...

  46. [46] 
    Michale wrote:

    Michty,

    My polls opinion has always been consistent throughout the 6+ years I have been here..

    The only reason it *appears* that I "cherry-pick" polls is because I always bring up the polls that YA'ALL ignore...

    Mainly, the polls that you don't agree with...

    It's really nothing more nefarious than that... :D

    Michale.....

  47. [47] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Lol that is precisely cherry picking polls Michale! You wait until a poll says something that you like then post it on here. I don't ignore any polls, I believe aggregating polls is the best way of dealing with them instead of focussing on 1 poll. So Gallup is included (even now I believe) in the aggregated polls showing Obama winning comfortably...

  48. [48] 
    Michale wrote:

    You wait until a poll says something that you like then post it on here.

    On the contrary..

    I wait to see if ya'all are going to post polls that ya don't like..

    When ya don't, I do it for ya.. :D

    Michale.....

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