ChrisWeigant.com

Final Electoral Math -- My 2012 Election Picks

[ Posted Monday, November 5th, 2012 – 16:18 PST ]

Welcome to the last of these Electoral Math columns, at least for the next three and a half years. Today, we're just going to throw caution to the wind, and go ahead and predict the outcome of tomorrow night's returns. Before we get to that, though, a quick rundown of my previous record in the election prediction business, and then (for completeness' sake) the final electoral math graphs for 2012.

The 2008 election was the first one I publicly published my own prognostications on a presidential election. How did I do? Well, it depends on how you measure it. In the final 2008 Electoral Math column, I called 49 out of 51 Electoral College entities correctly. There are 51, of course, because Washington, D.C. is treated as a state in our presidential elections. So 49 out of 51 ain't too bad.

The two states I called wrong -- calling both erroneously for Obama -- were Missouri and Georgia. Now, Missouri is defensible, since it turned out to actually be the closest state in the entire election. John McCain only won the state by 3,903 votes out of over 2.9 million cast. So while I turned out to be wrong, at least it was inside the realm of possibility that Obama would win Missouri.

Georgia, well, that's not so defensible, is it? McCain won by over five percent, after all. Chalk it up to irrational exuberance for Obama. The day before the election of 2008, it was apparent to all that Obama was riding a gigantic wave into office, and the only real question was how far up the shore that wave would break. I got a little optimistic, and called one state that was clearly just too far.

But, overall, 49 out of 51 isn't too bad. Although it looks worse when considered as electoral votes (or "EV"). Back in 2008, Missouri had 11 EV and Georgia had 15 EV. So I got 26 EV wrong out of 538 EV -- which is almost five percent wrong. I called 390 EV for Obama, and he wound up with 364 EV. However you want to measure things, that's my previous record.

Moving on to this year, we're going to just quickly run through the charts and then get on to making my predictions for 2012. I should mention that the data for these charts comes from Electoral-Vote.com, whom I have relied upon since I first started writing these columns four years ago. It's a great site, so check it out if you have any questions. Here is the overall picture as it currently stands:

Electoral Math By Percent

[Click on any of theses graphs to see larger-scale versions.]

Again, we're just going to do a quick summary here of the movement since last week's column. Here are the two candidates' individual charts, starting with Mitt Romney:

Romney Electoral Math

And here's how the numbers stack up for Barack Obama:

Obama 2012 Electoral Math

[Definition of terms: "Strong" means 10% or better in the polls,
"Weak" means 5% or better, and "Barely" is under five percent.
]

There was movement between the categories in eleven states this week. Obama got good news in four of his states, and bad news in three. Mitt Romney got bad news in two of his states, and good news in none. Two states wobbled between the categories, but wound up where they had started the week.

Mitt Romney saw South Dakota weaken this week, but it's still pretty safe territory for him. More troubling, he saw North Carolina move to "Tied" at the last minute. Is there a late surge for Obama in North Carolina? Or is it just an outlier poll or two?

Barack Obama saw Michigan get weaker, moving from "Strong" down to "Weak," and saw Pennsylvania weaken even more alarmingly, from Weak down to "Barely." But the worst news for Obama came from Colorado, where the state went from Barely Obama all the way to Barely Romney, only to settle back to Tied at the end.

This all was countered by the good news for Obama, where Minnesota firmed up from Barely to Weak. Obama's best news was seeing three critical states move from Tied to Barely Obama -- Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia.

Two states wobbled, but then wobbled right back again. Wisconsin went from Barely Obama to Weak Obama, but then dropped back by week's end. Florida went from Barely Romney to Tied, but then back into Romney's column at the end.

So what does it all mean? Your guess is as good as mine. Feel free to share your guesses in the comments. Here are my state-by-state picks for the 2012 election, beginning with the lists of states that pretty much everyone agrees upon at this point.

 

Safe Obama States -- 16 States -- 191 Electoral Votes
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington D.C. (3), Washington (12)

Safe Romney States -- 21 States -- 170 Electoral Votes
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)

 

You'll notice that this time around, we've set the bar pretty high for "safe" states, for both candidates. This is so we can individually address all the states that have even been slightly close during this race. Many of these are either the pipe dreams of campaign spinmeisters, or the ravings of a mainstream media which requires every single election to be a "close race," because it boosts their ratings. Which is why it's such a long list. Here are the fourteen states we'll all be looking at tomorrow night, to some degree or another, and my picks for each of them. Electoral vote totals are given for each state (in parenthesis). These are presented in roughly in the order that I am confident of my own pick. The states at the top I'm surest of, and the states at the bottom are where we get into gut feelings and coin-flipping, to put it another way.

 

Close States

Michigan (16)
Mitt Romney will lose the state he was born in, and the state his father was governor of. Detroit remembers who saved them, and who would have stood by while the auto industry collapsed. Michigan goes comfortably for Obama.

Pennsylvania (20)
Mitt Romney's team has convinced themselves that there's a giant wave of Pennsylvanians which will put this state in his column tomorrow night. They are wrong. Pennsylvania goes strongly for Obama.

Minnesota (10)
This is another one that both the media and the Romney team have been desperately trying to pull the wool over our eyes on, but it will comfortably vote for President Obama.

Arizona (11)
Arizona, due to a contentious Senate race, almost looked like it was heading into Obama's territory for a while there, but in the end it will vote for Mitt Romney. The Latino vote will be bigger than expected, but it won't be enough to put Obama over the top here.

Nevada (6)
Nevada will also have a much bigger Latino turnout than expected, and will wind up being a comfortable win for Obama. Latino polling in Nevada has been underrepresented, and this shows up in the bigger-than-expected Obama margin tomorrow night.

Missouri (10)
Missouri, also due to a wild Senate race, looked extremely weak for Romney, right after Akin's infamous comments on rape, pregnancy, and abortion. But in the end, the state will be a solid win for Romney.

Wisconsin (10)
Wisconsin actually has a "favorite son" on the ballot, but Paul Ryan will be denied a victory here. Wisconsin will be closer than expected, but in the end will indeed be part of a "Midwestern firewall" for Barack Obama.

Iowa (6)
Iowa will go solidly for Obama, in a bigger margin than is now predicted. Iowa is the second brick in Obama's Midwestern firewall, and it will hold firm for him in the end.

North Carolina (15)
North Carolina is where the entire rest of this list gets a whole lot harder to call. Mitt Romney seemed to have sewn the state up roughly two weeks ago, and has been doing well in the polling. However, a last-minute wave seems to have emerged for Obama, and he's been doing a lot better in the polls from the last week or so. In the end, however, I think Obama's wave here is going to fall short. I predict this will be a closer race than the Romney team expects, but that Romney wins it by a slim margin in the end.

New Hampshire (4)
New Hampshire is a tough one to call, since the polls have been all over the map of late. But when the dust settles, I think Obama will win the Granite State, and by a healthier margin than the polls have indicated. This is mostly just a gut feeling, I should admit.

Ohio (18)
Ohio is supposed to be the hardest state to call, because it is the state which has gotten the most media attention in the past month. However, I find that Ohio is not the last state on my own list, in terms of confidence in the outcome. Barack Obama will win Ohio, for the same reason he's going to win Michigan -- saving Detroit. When one in eight jobs in the state depend on a healthy auto industry, the people remember the bailout with gratitude. Ohio will garner the most media attention tomorrow night, but I predict it'll actually be called fairly early in the evening.

Virginia (13)
Virginia is going to be closer than Ohio, I think. Obama held an early advantage here, but Mitt Romney made up the ground after the first debate, and the state pulled into a tie for weeks. But Obama has seen a last-minute surge here, and my prediction is that, unlike North Carolina, this surge will be enough to put Obama over the top. Virginia going for Obama may be the earliest big shock to the mainstream media pundits on election night, and the first indication of the wave of momentum breaking in Obama's favor.

Florida (29)
But Virginia won't be the biggest shock to the media tomorrow night -- that will occur when Florida goes for Obama. Yes, you heard me right -- Obama will defy expectations, and win the Sunshine State in a very close victory. Now, perhaps this is Obama bias or excessive exuberance on my part, but then again perhaps not. Obama's been seeing some better poll numbers here, since (and this is crucial) Hurricane Sandy hit. Federal response to hurricanes is a big deal in Florida, since the state's highest elevation is less than 350 feet, and Florida stands in the direct path of so many hurricanes. To put it another way, Chris Christie may have put Florida into Obama's column. Now, I admit that I'm pretty far out on a limb calling Florida for Obama, but maybe it's just because I want to see all the jaws drop on all the pundits in the media when everyone realizes that by losing Florida, the election is essentially over for Mitt Romney, and we can all just go to bed early tomorrow night. For whatever reason, though, I'm going to stick my neck out and call a very narrow edge in Florida for Barack Obama.

Colorado (9)
The closest race in the country, however, will be none other than Colorado. Obama really should have this state sewn up by now, but the polls have been almost perfectly tied for a solid month here. I think the ballot initiative to legalize recreational use of marijuana is going to have an odd effect on the Colorado presidential race. The conventional ways of looking at this may in fact be wrong. The first of these is that pro-weed voters are libertarian, and therefore they will steal votes from Romney. The second of these conventional attitudes is that pro-weed voters are young, therefore they will break for Obama. Both of these may be true to some extent, but there's a third way of looking at it that I think is more correct: the pro-weed people are young and libertarian, but they are most decidedly not in Obama's corner, because of the hostility the Obama Justice Department has shown towards medical marijuana in the state (and elsewhere). Therefore, the pro-weed vote is going to break for Gary Johnson. Colorado is truly the coin-flippiest of states this year, and it is anybody's guess how it'll vote. The only confidence I have is to predict it'll be one of the closest -- if not the closest -- state races tomorrow night. We may not even know who won until Wednesday morning, in fact. But in the end, by a razor-thin margin, I'm going to go ahead and say Obama ekes out his smallest victory of the night here.

 

My Electoral College Prediction

Adding up what could prove to be my rash and exuberant predictions above, the final Electoral College tally will be:

Barack Obama -- 332 Electoral Votes

Mitt Romney -- 206 Electoral Votes

I could be wrong, but those are my 2012 election picks. What are yours? Let me know in the comments, which I'll be checking tomorrow night as well. Everyone ready? Let the ballot-counting begin!

 

Electoral Math Column Series Archive:

[Oct 29] [Oct 23] [Oct 15] [Oct 08] [Sep 26] [Sep 17] [Aug 22] [Aug 8] [Jul 18] [Jun 25]

-- Chris Weigant

 

Cross-posted at Business Insider
Cross-posted at The Huffington Post

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

59 Comments on “Final Electoral Math -- My 2012 Election Picks”

  1. [1] 
    Michale wrote:

    http://politicker.com/2012/11/obama-campaign-to-supporters-dont-panic-over-early-exit-polls/

    When a campaign tells it's supporters to NOT PANIC....

    It's time for those supporters to panic... :D

    Gods, tomorrow is going to be like Mardi Gras!! :D

    I am going to go with the UoC study....

    Romney..... 330 EVs...

    Obama...... Whatever Leftovers are available..

    Michale.....

  2. [2] 
    Michale wrote:

    As my parting (for the night) gift, a little humor.

    What happens when you pull down the Pillsbury DoughBoy's pants??

    You see his dough nuts....

    :D

    Michale....

  3. [3] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    the real wild card here is the fallout from sandy. for example, my native new jersey may seem solid blue, but when there's no electricity to power the voting machines, the cities (i.e. democratic strongholds) may underperform dramatically.

  4. [4] 
    michael hassan wrote:

    You are going to be pretty darn close. I think NC may swing to the President and FL has a slight chance of going to Romney, mainly due to Voldemort Scott's poll closing monkey business. However if someone held a gun to my head and said "PICK: I'd have to say FL still goes to the Prez. I think VA. WI, IA, CO, NH, NV and of course OH all go to the President as well. He will sweep the swing states or worst case win the lion's share.

    The voter supression BS attempted by Republican partisians is going to have backfired in a big way. Memo to PA House Speaker and OH Secy of State: You gentlemen are buffoons.

  5. [5] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Michale,
    When a campaign tells it's supporters to NOT PANIC....

    It's time for those supporters to panic... :D

    Lol once again you failed to read and jump to the conclusions you want to hear. They are saying not to panic because early exit polls are going to be showing Obama losing. This is what happens on voting day when you have a massive early voting lead. For example, 2-1 in Ohio. Everybody knows Obama is going to win Ohio 66-33. So it is clear he will lose voting day there. Simples. Now to my predictions...

  6. [6] 
    michty6 wrote:

    I created my own mini prediction model! Let's see how it does. I will explain the methodology but I doubt anyone is interested.

    SAFE STATES
    Obama - 201 EV
    Romney - 191 EV

    Minnesota is included in here. The idea that it will be close is silly. It will be as close as Arizona, Georgia or Missouri for Romney. Maine CD2 and Oregon also in there for Obama.

    SOLID STATES
    I include those which the candidate is over 2% in my model.

    Obama - 80 EV
    Romney - 0 EV

    These are enough to send Obama over the top. This is why the idea that the election is 'close' is just a media invention. Any of these flipping would be a huge shock, never-mind more than 1 of them:
    - Michigan (16) +5.65%
    - PA (20) +4.15%
    - Wisconsin (10) +4.8%
    - Ohio (18) +4.95%
    - Iowa (6) +3.3%
    - Nevada (6) +5.05%
    - New Hampshire (4) +2.7%

    TOSS-UP STATES
    These are closer than 2% so a flip the other way wouldn't be totally out of order.

    Obama - 51 EV
    Romney - 15 EV

    - Colorado (9) +1.95%
    - Virginia (13) +1.85%
    - North Carolina (15) -1.95%
    - Florida (29) +0.00%

    Florida actually came out 0.00% with no manipulation! It was +0.1% Obama yesterday. I predict that:
    (1) If the election isn't close, it will go Obama by a tiny, tiny margin with no re-count
    (2) If the election is close, it will go to re-count and the Republican Governor will magically pull a Romney victory out ala 2000.

    Scenario (2) is pretty unlikely though, Romney has too much ground to make up elsewhere.

    TOTALS

    Obama - 332 EV (62%)
    Romney - 206 EV (38%)

    Same as CW! Obama wins by 24%. Pretty 'close. ;)

  7. [7] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Also I think Democrats will not only hold the Senate but there is a good change they will increase their majority there because of the nut-job candidates fielded by Republicans.

  8. [8] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    my prediction is that romney sweeps the genuine toss-ups, but obama holds the lead where he has one.

    Obama - Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio

    Romney - Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire

    totals:

    Obama 271
    Romney 267

    for better or worse, i think the president will have a second term.
    ~joshua

  9. [9] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Michale -

    Can't resist:

    "Don't Panic!"
    - from the cover of The Hitchiker's Guide To The Galaxy

    Heh.

    I think the Romney team is the one experiencing panic, right about now...

    nypoet22 -

    Sandy may have an effect on the national vote, but I can't see it affecting any state votes -- those are all some pretty blue states, up there. But nationally, Sandy could mean higher chances for Romney winning the popular vote while Obama wins the Electoral College. There's a lot of voters in the NYC metro area... a LOT of voters...

    michael hassan -

    I wanted to believe NC was going O again, but I just can't do it. It's a bridge too far. I hope I'm wrong, though.

    I wrote about the seniors getting annoyed at voter suppression back in July. I, too, wonder how it'll all play out.

    Voter suppression is seen as a brilliant short-term tactic by Republicans. But in the long term, they may be digging their own grave.

    michty6 -

    Great minds think alike. Heh.

    Also, more on down-ballot races in tomorrow's column, promise!

    nypoet22 -

    Man, if you're right, we're in for a nail-biter! I hope I'm right and you're wrong, just for the sake of my sanity.

    :-)

    - CW

  10. [10] 
    Michale wrote:

    Michty,

    They are saying not to panic because early exit polls are going to be showing Obama losing.

    And there is a reason for that.. :D It will be because Obama *WILL* be losing.. :D

    Everybody knows Obama is going to win Ohio 66-33.

    You KNOW I am going to quote you on that tomorrow.. :D

    Also I think Democrats will not only hold the Senate but there is a good change they will increase their majority there because of the nut-job candidates fielded by Republicans

    Now I KNOW you are completely delusional..

    It's common knowledge that Democrats will actually lose MORE House seats.... :D

    CW,

    I think the Romney team is the one experiencing panic, right about now...

    And yet, it's only TEAM OBAMA who is articulating the Panic :D

    Especially when Obama couldn't fill up his final speech venue.. Even with Jay-Z (whoever that is) and The Boss doing concerts...

    Further, compare the crowd sizes to Obama campaign stops (a couple thousand at most) and the crowd sizes to Romney campaign stops (tens of thousands) recently...

    Obama has very good reason to panic..

    Joshua,

    You are correct on Florida.. Local headlines around these here parts clearly show Florida is going Romney..

    The fact that anyone disputes this shows the amount of Kool-Aid in their system. :D

    Voter suppression is seen as a brilliant short-term tactic by Republicans. But in the long term, they may be digging their own grave.

    Of course you are assuming it WAS voter suppression and not a desire to make sure illegals don't vote.

    Another way to say it would be:

    Vote Integrity is seen as a brilliant short-term tactic by Republicans. But in the long term, they may be serving the public good even more..

    Yea, that works too... :D It's all in the spin...

    My way is just as factually accurate as your way... :D

    "Now that I hear it out loud, I like your way better."
    -Woody The Coroner, PSYCH

    :D

    Michale....

  11. [11] 
    Michale wrote:

    Michty,

    Also I think Democrats will not only hold the Senate but there is a good change they will increase their majority there because of the nut-job candidates fielded by Republicans

    Now I KNOW you are completely delusional..

    It's common knowledge that Democrats will actually lose MORE House seats.... :D

    Disregard this..

    I misread your initial comment..

    My bust...

    Michale.....

  12. [12] 
    Michale wrote:
  13. [13] 
    Michale wrote:

    Remember...

    We're going to accept the will of the people as expressed by our system of voting, unless there is unequivocal evidence of fraud that would have swayed the election..

    Right???

    Michale.....

  14. [14] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Michale,
    Everybody knows Obama is going to win Ohio 66-33.

    You KNOW I am going to quote you on that tomorrow.. :D

    Hahaha to avoid making sure I don't sound like one of those crazies predicting massive landslides, I want to clarify: I meant he is NOT going to win Ohio 66-33, that's why he IS going to lose the election day vote. 46% is enough for him on election day with how he crushed early voting. I expect him to get close 50% and thus win by around 5...

    compare the crowd sizes to Obama campaign stops (a couple thousand at most) and the crowd sizes to Romney campaign stops (tens of thousands) recently.

    The crowd sizes are very comparable. The only reason you think they are not is because you live in the right-wing echo chamber...

    But I like how 'crowd sizes' is a valid measure of the potential election outcome but actual scientific polls aren't in your world!

  15. [15] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Anyone know where to watch exit polls online? CNN?

  16. [16] 
    Michale wrote:

    The crowd sizes are very comparable. The only reason you think they are not is because you live in the right-wing echo chamber...

    But I like how 'crowd sizes' is a valid measure of the potential election outcome but actual scientific polls aren't in your world!

    "And, of course, you can PROVE that, right?? Oh yea, I forgot. You were absent the day they taught law at Law School!!"
    -Tom Cruise, A FEW GOOD MEN

    Like I said, we'll likely know tonight who is right and who ain't...

    Prepare the Crow Feast!! :D

    Michale....

  17. [17] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Michale,
    If you have some cash to burn you should be on non In-Trade markets. Romney is actually over-priced on In-Trade. Try some other ones (eg. Betfair) where is elss than 20% to win, you'll get OVER 5 to 1 on your money!

    Although you might not be able to get money on those sites from America because your freedom loving Republican party banned that a few years back...

  18. [18] 
    michty6 wrote:

    CW,
    Great minds think alike. Heh.

    Yeh I have basically only seen 3 predictions coming out of models:
    - 290 (O loses VA, FL)
    - 303 (O wins VA, loses FL)
    - 332 (Ours where he wins both)

    Any of these will be good, I get the feeling the result might fall in the middle but Florida is so close just now you might as well just flip a coin! I don't see him losing VA but with around only a 1-2% lead it wouldn't be a huge shock (McCain had a 1.4% lead in Indiana in 2008 and O edged this)

  19. [19] 
    Michale wrote:

    Although you might not be able to get money on those sites from America because your freedom loving Republican party banned that a few years back...

    Ahhhh Ignorance is bliss..

    It was actually Democrats who pushed/supported such legislation, as they said minorities were unfairly hurt by the practice...

    But, nice try.. :D

    Michale....

  20. [20] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Ahhhh Ignorance is bliss..

    It was actually Democrats who pushed/supported such legislation, as they said minorities were unfairly hurt by the practice...

    Lol I don't think so. You are talking about a piece of legislation which I am incredibly familiar with and have been following for year.

    It was absolutely nothing to do with Democrats. It was snuck through by Republicans during the lame duck period, attached to the 'Safe Ports Act'. It was written by Jim Leech (R) and Robert Goodlatte (R) then pushed in the Senate by Jim Leach (R)and Jon Kyl (R). Signed into law by George Bush (R). The sort of piece of crappy legislation that gets pushed through a lame duck because there isn't a chance in hell it would get passed any other time.

    Democrats have tried many times in the last years to try and counter this over-the-top bill. Barney Frank tried for years to garner support to overturn it. The latest version is a Reid/Kyl bill to loosen it (Reid persuaded Kyl that the piece of crap bill he helped create was a piece of crap) which still might be passed in this years lame duck. Obama also said he wanted to repeal parts of it (Obama was an avid poker player back in the day and still talks about the game a lot), but it wasn't a priority (obviously).

    So yeh you might want to research the FACTS before claiming someone else is ignorant on a subject they know more than you about... ;)

  21. [21] 
    Michale wrote:

    Where are your facts???

    All I see is your opinion..

    You claim I am wrong??

    Prove it. :D

    Michale.....

  22. [22] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Google/Wikipedia: UIGEA. Read.

  23. [23] 
    LeaningBlue wrote:

    Three thoughts, not of which are a prediction; I have nothing to add to the consensus here.

    First, Nate Silver is to pundits as Craig's List is to print classified ads. He went all in last night on Colbert, saying in a head-to-head match of Pundit vs. Ebola, he'd vote Ebola. I, like his statistics, have every confidence he'll win this one.

    Second, I'm delighted to see the live blog roll of voting irregularities. It means shenanigans, which have been practiced by both parties since forever, are not going unobserved, un-Tweeted, and uncorrected.

    I don't know what's going on with that software court case in Ohio; if anyone knows if the judge has decided, please post it here.

    Third, I think it's time for internet voting. Yeah, it's not without problems, but it would be the best thing to happen to participation rates and fraud reduction ever. Paper trails, audit trails, and an environment with which the banks, credit card companies, and increasing proportion of commerce feels comfortable against evil-doing is something whose time is just about here.

    People say they think pot's going to make it in CO. I'm still not so sure, but if it does, watch the libertarian draw -from both sides.

  24. [24] 
    Michale wrote:

    Michty,

    If you don't have the proof, why not just say so...

    David whacks my wee-wee when I just give him google links...

    Be specific.. If the facts are on your side, that shouldn't be difficult... :D

    Michale.....

  25. [25] 
    Michale wrote:

    Second, I'm delighted to see the live blog roll of voting irregularities. It means shenanigans, which have been practiced by both parties since forever, are not going unobserved, un-Tweeted, and uncorrected.

    Here here... Although I would argue the "un-corrected" part...

    A lot of them are problems that were uncovered in 2010..

    Michale

  26. [26] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Ok Michale. An abbreviated history:

    Right-nut-tea-party-crazies backed by the religious right in the Republican party wanted on-line gambling banned (evil, against God etc). They tried to pass a bill - it obviously fell flat on it's face. Time was running out, as their hold over the House was ending, it was late 2006. So they decided to attach a version of the bill to the 'Safe Ports Act', a universally supported Bill to curb terrorist acts at US Ports and snuck it through this during the lame duck session. It wasn't debated, discussed or even mentioned during the passing of the Safe Ports Act.

    It was poorly written and almost unenforceable because it was so vague (for example, it is called the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act but doesn't define 'gambling' lolol). Banks and financial institutions, as a result, are scared to process anything that might look like it is going to a 'gambling' site - thus Neteller, Moneybookers and the like have insane security procedures to get money on-line.

    Of course, being Republican created, it had opt outs for the largest lobbying groups (NFL, for example got an opt-out for fantasy sports leagues; horse racing got an opt-out too).

    Since then the WTO has filed a trade complaint against America regarding the legislation, Barney Frank had a bill to regulate internet gambling that was shot down by House Republicans in 2010 and now Reid/Kyl (backed by Vegas) have a similar bill to regulate internet gambling. It is estimated regulating and taxing this market is worth $40b in income. But Republicans, being the prudent fiscal party (LOL), are blocking it at every step.

    UK and Canadian citizens continue to be allowed to gamble unfettered by their Governments (and, in many cases, tax free :)). Welcome to life in the LAND OF THE FREE!

  27. [27] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Haha I just read a great term on another blog. The 'religious Bradley effect' referring to right-wing evangelicals who say they will vote Romney but don't actually because they can't find it in themselves to vote for a Mormon! I don't really believe it but I thought the term was pretty funny!

  28. [28] 
    Michale wrote:

    Ok Michale. An abbreviated history:

    That's a great story, michty...

    But, since you have absolutely NO corroborating evidence, that is all it is..

    A story...

    Michale.....

  29. [29] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    I'll go for the million to one $2 trifecta.

    Electoral college tied. Democrats miraculously take the house but lose the senate and we end up with Obama president and Ryan Vice President...

  30. [30] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Lol Michale, I know you don't like the liberally-biased Google but you wanted the details and I gave you them. You can verify any of them. Here is the wiki on UIGEA, most of the details are in there.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unlawful_Internet_Gambling_Enforcement_Act_of_2006

    But yes go on denying that a Republican written, Republican sponsored bill signed into law by a Republican President is the fault of the Democrats lol.

  31. [31] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Oh yeh I forgot the fact that the bill doesn't actually ban online gambling (LOL). It only bans banks from processing transactions that might be used in online gambling. This drove people trying to put money online into the hands of less scrupulous actors - another awful offset of this horrendous piece of legislation. This is, of course, covered in the 'criticisms' section of the wiki piece...

  32. [32] 
    michty6 wrote:
  33. [33] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Virginia Board of Elections just announced: turnout higher than 2008.

  34. [34] 
    Michale wrote:

    Bashi,

    I'll go for the million to one $2 trifecta.

    Electoral college tied. Democrats miraculously take the house but lose the senate and we end up with Obama president and Ryan Vice President...

    Now THAT's creative! :D

    Michale.....

  35. [35] 
    Michale wrote:

    Virginia Board of Elections just announced: turnout higher than 2008.

    NEW RULE:

    If you don't link it, it doesn't exist...

    :D

    Michale.....

  36. [36] 
    Michale wrote:

    The best tagline on the election so far...

    If you voted for Obama to prove you weren't racist, vote now for Romney to prove you're not an idiot.

    Now THAT's funny!!! :D

    Anyone line up a CHAT forum yet???

    Michale.....

  37. [37] 
    michty6 wrote:

    Early exit polls with non-voting data out.

    This does not bode well for Romney:

    Fifty-two percent say Romney's policies favor the rich. Thirty-six percent say he favors the middle class, while just 2 percent say he favors the poor.

    Only 10 percent say Mr. Obama favors the rich. Forty-three percent say he favors the middle class, while 31 percent say he favors the poor.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57546031/early-exit-polls-60-percent-say-economy-top-issue/

  38. [38] 
    dsws wrote:

    I'm feeling more optimistic than I was a couple days ago. I'll guess

    Obama 281

    California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington D.C. (3), Washington (12), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18)

    Romney 257

    Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3), Arizona (11), Missouri (10), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Florida (29), Colorado (9)

    The popular vote will be so close that Republicans in the blogosphere will insist they really won, based on some wild estimates of military absentee ballots and fantasies about ACORN. Republican office-holders won't believe it, but they'll dog-whistle it consistently.

  39. [39] 
    Michale wrote:

    Interesting..

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-election-results/

    POPULAR VOTE

    OBAMA 43,447

    ROMNEY 74,514

    It's gonna be a rout!!!!!! :D

    Michale

  40. [40] 
    Michale wrote:

    Now we know why Team Obama advised supporters not to panic! :D

    Michale.....

  41. [41] 
    Michale wrote:

    The popular vote will be so close

    Really????

    Because what I am seeing, it looks like Romney is DOUBLING Obama's popular vote and increasing by the minute.....

    Boy, are you guys in for a kool-aid hangover tomorrow!!! :D

    Michale.....

  42. [42] 
    Michale wrote:

    Barack Obama 3 EV

    Mitt Romney 33 EV

    Woot!!!!! :D

    Michale.....

  43. [43] 
    Michale wrote:

    With 1% of the vote counted in Ohio, Romney votes nearly doubles Obama votes

  44. [44] 
    Michale wrote:

    Romney still has the edge in the POP vote..

    Apologies to dsws.. Looks like the POP vote *IS* going to be close... :D

    Michale.....

  45. [45] 
    Michale wrote:

    http://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/11/06/obama-i-have-a-concession-speech-ready/

    Looks like Obama is not as confident as ya'all are... :D

    Michale....

  46. [46] 
    Michale wrote:

    It's gonna hit the fan in about 5 minutes.. :D

    Michale.....

  47. [47] 
    Michale wrote:

    Romney just took GA...

    Obama 3 EV

    Romney 49 EV

    If anyone wants to change their story, now would be a good time... :D

    Michale.....

  48. [48] 
    Michale wrote:

    GOP beating DEM in both HOUSE and SENATE numbers as well...

    I was thinking about hittin' the sack as I have to be up at 0300 EDT...

    But this is too good a show to pass up.. :D

    Michale....

  49. [49] 
    Michale wrote:

    George Allen is beating Tom... er... TIM Kaine...

    THAT'S gotta hurt.. :D

    Michale.....

  50. [50] 
    Michale wrote:

    Looks like OBAMA just picked up a bunch...

    Obama 79
    Romney 71

  51. [51] 
    Michale wrote:

    Romney increasing his lead in the POP vote...

    Which, I know, means absolutely NOTHING... :D

    Michale.....

  52. [52] 
    Michale wrote:

    Obama won Indiana in 2008..

    It's completely Romney now...

  53. [53] 
    Michale wrote:

    Romney's increasing his POP vote total..

    MS and AL went Romney

  54. [54] 
    Michale wrote:

    Romney is decimating Obama in VA...

  55. [55] 
    Michale wrote:

    Romney is killing Obama in TN, but looks like Obama might take NC

  56. [56] 
    Michale wrote:

    Romney just pulled ahead in FL....

    Looks like FL is a Romney state... I called that one.. :D

  57. [57] 
    Michale wrote:

    Romney 82 EV

    Obama 79 EV

  58. [58] 
    dsws wrote:

    Yay, I was wrong.

  59. [59] 
    michty6 wrote:

    These quotes are an excellent time stamp of history. I especially liked:

    Really????

    Because what I am seeing, it looks like Romney is DOUBLING Obama's popular vote and increasing by the minute.....

    Boy, are you guys in for a kool-aid hangover tomorrow!!! :D

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