ChrisWeigant.com

Obama Poll Watch -- July, 2012

[ Posted Thursday, August 2nd, 2012 – 15:59 PDT ]

Obama drops back

I have to begin today with two reminders. To regular readers of this column, you'll note that it is appearing on Thursdays and Tuesdays from now until the election, in a more abbreviated form. If Obama loses, then it'll probably continue on Tuesdays and Thursdays until next January, for completeness' sake. If Obama wins, this column will return to its prominent spot on the first possible Monday or Wednesday after the end of each month, and I'll likely have to come up with some better graphics after January.

For everyone, a reminder that what we examine in this column is Barack Obama's job approval rating as president. This is only tangentially related to the 2012 election. Mitt Romney is not mentioned in this poll at all, it's a simple "Do you approve of the way the president is doing his job?" question. For the election itself, we have begun our Electoral Math column series, and we should be getting another one of these out some time next week, if all goes well.

OK, with caveats firmly in place, let's take a look at how Obama did in July:

Obama Approval -- July 2012

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

July, 2012

Barack Obama's worst time of year is the dog days of summer, and this year is proving no different. He had the worst month, overall, since last August, as his approval rate fell 0.6 percent to end the month at 47.2 percent average approval. His disapproval rate rose 0.3 percent, to end the month at 48.1 percent. This put Obama almost a full point "underwater" -- for the first time since January.

 

Overall Trends

To put this into some perspective, however, Obama's net approval/disapproval rating changed 0.9 percent this month for the worse. But Obama's always had a tough time of it in the summer. Last July, Obama lost a net of 4.1 percent (2.3 down on approval, 1.8 rise in disapproval). The July before that, Obama lost 1.7 percent, and in July of 2009 he lost a whopping 7.9 percent, as his initial "honeymoon" numbers fell back to Earth. Taken in comparison, Obama just had the best July he's ever had.

But this is a pretty thin silver lining for Obama fans. Here's a closer look at where the trends are pointing:

Obama Detail

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

That is not exactly a happy picture for the Obama campaign. No president wants to see a graph like that with less than 100 days to go before an election.

Obama's daily trends throughout the month weren't much better. He never managed to get his approval rating above water all month, although at the end of the month he managed to tie disapproval at 47.5 percent for one day. Obama's approval rating was actually remarkably stable all month long, swinging only 1.1 percent during the entire month (tying a record for least-volatile month), but his disapproval numbers were slightly more active. Another thin reed of good news for Obama was that his disapproval numbers were on a pretty solid (if gentle) downward trend all month.

This may help Obama as he enters August, but then again it may not. Why July's numbers were down for Obama is anyone's guess, really, but I'm going to pin a large part of it on the disappointing employment figures announced last month. Tomorrow's announcement of the numbers for July may do more to set the trend for August than any other single influencing factor.

Historically, however, August has been even less kind to Obama than July. So we may see another drop in his numbers next month as well. This drop in job approval hasn't significantly bled over into the election polling yet, but another month of a downward trend may start showing up in the "Who are you going to vote for?" polls. We'll have to wait and see.

 

[Obama Poll Watch Data:]

Sources And Methodology

ObamaPollWatch.com is an admittedly amateur effort, but we do try to stay professional when it comes to revealing our sources and methodology. All our source data comes from RealClearPolitics.com; specifically from their daily presidential approval ratings "poll of polls" graphic page. We take their daily numbers, log them, and then average each month's data into a single number -- which is then shown on our monthly charts here (a "poll of polls of polls," if you will...). You can read a much-more detailed explanation of our source data and methodology on our "About Obama Poll Watch" page, if you're interested.

Questions or comments? Use the Email Chris page to drop me a private note.

 

Column Archives

[Jul 12], [Jun 12], [Apr 12], [Mar 12], [Feb 12], [Jan 12], [Dec 11], [Nov 11], [Oct 11], [Sep 11], [Aug 11], [Jul 11], [Jun 11], [May 11], [Apr 11], [Mar 11], [Feb 11], [Jan 11], [Dec 10], [Nov 10], [Oct 10], [Sep 10], [Aug 10], [Jul 10], [Jun 10], [May 10], [Apr 10], [Mar 10], [Feb 10], [Jan 10], [Dec 09], [Nov 09], [Oct 09], [Sep 09], [Aug 09], [Jul 09], [Jun 09], [May 09], [Apr 09], [Mar 09]

 

Obama's All-Time Statistics

Monthly
Highest Monthly Approval -- 2/09 -- 63.4%
Lowest Monthly Approval -- 10/11 -- 43.4%

Highest Monthly Disapproval -- 9/11, 10/11 -- 51.2%
Lowest Monthly Disapproval -- 1/09 -- 19.6%

Daily
Highest Daily Approval -- 2/15/09 -- 65.5%
Lowest Daily Approval -- 10/9/11 -- 42.0%

Highest Daily Disapproval -- 8/30/11 -- 53.2%
Lowest Daily Disapproval -- 1/29/09 -- 19.3%

 

Obama's Raw Monthly Data

[All-time high in bold, all-time low underlined.]

Month -- (Approval / Disapproval / Undecided)
07/12 -- 47.2 / 48.1 / 4.7
06/12 -- 47.8 / 47.8 / 4.4
05/12 -- 48.1 / 47.8 / 4.1
04/12 -- 47.8 / 47.1 / 5.1
03/12 -- 47.7 / 47.2 / 5.1
02/12 -- 48.2 / 47.2 / 4.6
01/12 -- 46.3 / 48.3 / 5.4
12/11 -- 45.1 / 49.5 / 5.4
11/11 -- 44.4 / 50.2 / 5.4
10/11 -- 43.4 / 51.2 / 5.4
09/11 -- 43.5 / 51.2 / 5.3
08/11 -- 43.8 / 50.7 / 5.5
07/11 -- 46.2 / 47.8 / 6.0
06/11 -- 48.5 / 46.0 / 5.5
05/11 -- 51.4 / 43.1 / 5.5
04/11 -- 46.4 / 48.2 / 5.4
03/11 -- 48.1 / 46.4 / 5.5
02/11 -- 49.4 / 44.5 / 6.1
01/11 -- 48.5 / 45.7 / 5.8
12/10 -- 45.5 / 48.1 / 6.4
11/10 -- 45.5 / 49.0 / 5.5
10/10 -- 45.5 / 49.1 / 5.4
09/10 -- 45.7 / 49.7 / 4.6
08/10 -- 45.3 / 49.5 / 5.2
07/10 -- 46.6 / 47.4 / 6.0
06/10 -- 47.6 / 46.7 / 5.7
05/10 -- 48.1 / 45.5 / 6.4
04/10 -- 47.8 / 46.5 / 5.7
03/10 -- 48.1 / 46.4 / 5.5
02/10 -- 47.9 / 46.1 / 6.0
01/10 -- 49.2 / 45.3 / 5.5
12/09 -- 49.4 / 44.9 / 5.7
11/09 -- 51.1 / 43.5 / 5.4
10/09 -- 52.2 / 41.9 / 5.9
09/09 -- 52.7 / 42.0 / 5.3
08/09 -- 52.8 / 40.8 / 6.4
07/09 -- 56.4 / 38.1 / 5.5
06/09 -- 59.8 / 33.6 / 6.6
05/09 -- 61.4 / 31.6 / 7.0
04/09 -- 61.0 / 30.8 / 8.2
03/09 -- 60.9 / 29.9 / 9.2
02/09 -- 63.4 / 24.4 / 12.2
01/09 -- 63.1 / 19.6 / 17.3

 

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

19 Comments on “Obama Poll Watch -- July, 2012”

  1. [1] 
    Chris1962 wrote:

    Why July's numbers were down for Obama is anyone's guess, really, but I'm going to pin a large part of it on the disappointing employment figures announced last month.

    I'd say that's a safe bet, although one always has to wonder if the opponent's advertising, or O's "going negative," has anything to do with it. True, his average is 47%, but both Gallup's and Rasmussen's daily tracking have him at 45.

  2. [2] 
    Chris1962 wrote:

    I don't know if you've seen the last couple of polls, but I'll say again what I said before: With all the polling orgs out there, I'd love to know why they're not conducting clean surverys.

    "...Whoa there! This [Pew] poll is far, far out of line of other national surveys. Emily Schultheis at Politico writes that "the 10-point lead for Obama here is bigger than any of the other recent polling we've seen, which have tended to show a fairly static race." The Real Clear Politics' RCP Average of recent polls currently has Obama up by 3 points. In Talking Points Memo poll average, the divide is only 1.8 percent. Over at Business Insider, Brett LoGiurato is calling out the poll for bias: "Pew surveyed 1,956 registered voters. Of those, 42 percent were Democrats and just 23 percent were Republicans. We can't remember a poll being that imbalanced."
    http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/08/obama-really-leading-10-points/55354/

    How the heck is anybody supposed to know what's actually going on with voters out there? This reminds me of the Wisconsin recall, with everybody having convinced themselves that the race was gonna be squeaky-tight and that ballot counting might take until morning. And all this speculation had been based upon what turned out to be utterly faulty polling. And now here we are with Pew — a reputable polling org (or at least they used to be) — putting out a ridiculously over-sampled result.

    WHY they're even over-sampling, to begin with, is a whole other question. But I'd really love to know how much of the polling out there is even accurate and trustworthy these days.

  3. [3] 
    Michale wrote:

    Obama is not underwater (above 50%) in only 13 states and DC...

    Which is to say that Obama's job approval is BELOW 50% in 36 states, INCLUDING *ALL BATTLEGROUND STATES*

    If I recall correctly (CW??) even CARTER was in a better place at this point in his re-election than Obama is today...

    It don't look good for Team Obama...

    Michale.....

  4. [4] 
    Michale wrote:

    CB,

    WHY they're even over-sampling, to begin with, is a whole other question. But I'd really love to know how much of the polling out there is even accurate and trustworthy these days.

    Oh that's easy...

    All the polling that puts Obama in a good light and Romney in a bad light is dead on ballz accurate... :D

    The polls that show Obama losing and Romney winning...

    Not so much... :D

    Michale....

  5. [5] 
    Michale wrote:

    Speaking of Polls..

    It will be interesting to see how the Left Wing MSM covers the Chick Fil A "Kiss In"...

    The Leftist MSM all but ignored the massive outpouring of support from Chick Fil A...

    My guess is, the "Kiss In" will get front page exposure for days...

    Michale.....

  6. [6] 
    Chris1962 wrote:

    The Leftist MSM all but ignored the massive outpouring of support from Chick Fil A...

    Of course. Nothing new there. Meanwhile, unemployment is up to 8.3%. http://www.cnbc.com/id/48480887

  7. [7] 
    Michale wrote:

    8.3%

    If Obama wants to win re-election, the Unemployment is going the wrong way...

    It's actually even worse..

    The REAL Unemployment Number, the U-6 makes the Unemployment rate at about 15%, nationwide. Higher in some places.. California & Nevada have a U-6 Unemployment Rate of over 20%...

    Obama's chances are sinking...

    Michale.....

  8. [8] 
    Michale wrote:

    Reuters: Labor market slowed sharply after strong gains in winter, spelling trouble for Obama...

    AP: Stronger job creation could help Obama's re-election hopes...

    Ahhhh You just GOTS to love our media, eh?? :D

    Michale.....

  9. [9] 
    Chris1962 wrote:

    Good article explaining over-sampling basics: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-are-polls-skewed-toward-obama_648770.html?page=1

    It doesn't excuse the likes of Pew's poll being so ridiculously over the top, though.

  10. [10] 
    Michale wrote:

    "If you have a business, you didn't build that!"
    -President Barack Obama

    How ironic that those words will likely become the defining aspect of the Obama Presidency..

    I have a response to that..

    "8.3% U-3 Unemployment...
    15% U-6 Unemployment...
    Mr President???
    You *DID* build that!!"

    Michale....

  11. [11] 
    Michale wrote:

    WTH??

    Is everyone sobbing in their Cheerios???

    "Brian!! Look!!!! My Alpha Bets are talking to me!!! They're saying 'OOOOOOOoooooooooo' "
    "Those are Cheerios, Peter."

    -Family Guy

    :D

    Michale.....

  12. [12] 
    Chris1962 wrote:

    Did you see the White House's attempt to spin it?

    Obama adviser: Jobless rate is really 8.254%
    http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2012/08/wh-adviser-jobless-rate-is-really-8254/1#.UBwtV0RTdDT

    LOL!

  13. [13] 
    Michale wrote:

    Did you see the White House's attempt to spin it?

    Obama adviser: Jobless rate is really 8.254%
    http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2012/08/wh-adviser-jobless-rate-is-really-8254/1#.UBwtV0RTdDT

    LOL!

    Yea, I saw that...

    Does Team Obama SERIOUSLY think anyone but their base will buy that!???

    Come on, Weigantians... Admit it.. Some of you rolled your eyes a little when ya read that...

    :D

    Michale.....

  14. [14] 
    Michale wrote:

    Apropos of absolutely nothing..

    WHAT TO DO WHEN THE INTERNET IS DOWN
    http://thumbnails.visually.netdna-cdn.com/WhatToDoWhenTheInternetisDown_4f99cdd2240ea_w587.jpg

    Ironically enough, when I am doing hardware repairs, I am at my most predictive when the 'Net IS down.. :D

    Michale.....

  15. [15] 
    Michale wrote:

    http://newsbusters.org/blogs/scott-whitlock/2012/08/02/networks-fawned-over-obamas-world-tour-mock-romneys-international-bl

    Once again, it's simply AMAZING that there are still people who believe that the MSM is NOT in the bag for Obama...

    Michale.....

  16. [16] 
    Chris1962 wrote:

    Mainstream Media Blacks Out Chick-fil-A Story?

    Mainstream Media Blacks Out Chick-fil-A Story?
    http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/mainstream-media-blacks-out-chick-fil-story_649234.html

  17. [17] 
    Michale wrote:

    Mainstream Media Blacks Out Chick-fil-A Story?

    And, of course, the vandalism committed by the allegedly "tolerant" group goes unreported..

    It's amazing to me that a group who, to the point of violence and criminal activity, demands "tolerance" from everyone else is so intolerant...

    The hypocrisy is so thick you can cut it with a knife..

    Michale.....

  18. [18] 
    Chris1962 wrote:

    GALLUP Election Matters: Obama swing state status and Romney's hidden advantage
    http://www.gallup.com/fvideo.aspx?i=sWBWGL.mO9k88cb3hxprTwaa

  19. [19] 
    Chris1962 wrote:
Comments for this article are closed.