ChrisWeigant.com

Obama Poll Watch -- June, 2012

[ Posted Tuesday, July 3rd, 2012 – 16:27 PDT ]

Absolutely even

Before we begin here, a quick program note is in order. Astute readers will note that today is Tuesday. These columns usually run on Mondays or Wednesdays, and are thus posted on Huffington Post and Business Insider as well. But, for the next five months we're phasing out widespread coverage of this column, and phasing in our Electoral Math series in its place. Because the presidential election will be the overwhelming story from now until Election Day, the head-to-head polling between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama will be much more pertinent and newsworthy than our monthly look at how Obama is doing in the "job approval" polling. We don't want to overwhelm and confuse people by running too many charts, to put it another way. During this period, the ObamaPollWatch.com site will host both column series, so you can look there for the most recent of either. And, every month, we'll still be running the Obama Poll Watch columns, it'll just be on Tuesdays and Thursdays, that's all.

With that out of the way, let's take a look at how Barack Obama is doing in the job approval category. For the first time ever, we have an exact tie, at 47.8 percent. Here's the chart:

Obama Approval -- June 2012

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

June, 2012

June was an eventful month for Barack Obama, politically. The unemployment number rose at the beginning of the month, for the first time in a long time. Obama made a big announcement on immigration policy, and he largely won two major Supreme Court battles towards the end of the month. His Attorney General was charged with contempt of Congress (the first cabinet member ever to be thus charged), and the price of gasoline steadily came down, even though it is summer, as the threat of war with Iran fades. At the very end of the month, Obama scored a legislative victory by keeping student loan rates low for another year.

All of this meant virtually nothing for Obama in the polls. There were minor daily fluctuations, but throughout the month Obama's numbers stayed so close to exactly even that the "lead" (whether Obama's daily approval average beat, tied, or was beaten by his daily disapproval average) changed six times. He started the month barely ahead, he ended the month barely ahead, and the fluctuations were tiny throughout the whole month, and centered on the turnover point. To put it another way, a month-long tie.

Obama's monthly average approval rating fell three-tenths of a percent this month, to wind up at 47.8 percent. His monthly average disapproval didn't budge at all, and stayed exactly the same -- also at 47.8 percent. For the first month since taking office, Obama finished the month exactly tied.

 

Overall Trends

I've used the joke before, here, but the last few months of poll watching have reminded me of Steve Martin's character in L.A. Story, a television weatherman for Southern California, who ends one of his reports with: "Our next weather report will be in four days."

The joke, of course, is that Los Angeles doesn't get "weather," but instead has "a climate," making day-to-day tracking pointless.

You can see what I'm talking about in detail, below. I created this chart in Obama's second year in office, because the changes in polling became so tiny, the chart's scale had to be expanded to even see the minute fluctuations. However, I never thought that I'd face the same problem with the detail chart. But just look at the last five months' worth of data:

Obama Detail

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

You can barely see the movement, even on this exploded scale. From February until June, Obama's approval rating stays within a half a percentage point. His disapproval fluctuates less than three-quarters of a point. That is remarkable stability, especially for an election year.

Unfortunately for Obama, it is still over two percentage points shy of having a majority of the American public approve of his job performance -- the magic 50 percent mark that would make his re-election a whole lot easier. Also unfortunately, the trends, tiny though they may be, don't seem especially good. The amount Obama's numbers fell by in June was the same as he had gained the previous month, which puts his back where he was two months ago, while his disapproval number held on to gains made during the same period.

July doesn't seem to have a whole lot of big political news scheduled, except out on the campaign trail perhaps. This Friday's unemployment numbers may indeed set the political tone for the entire month. No huge legislative battles loom which could either help or hurt the president. Which (to end where we began) might mean that the election polling is going to be far more significant next month than Obama's job approval numbers.

 

[Obama Poll Watch Data:]

Sources And Methodology

ObamaPollWatch.com is an admittedly amateur effort, but we do try to stay professional when it comes to revealing our sources and methodology. All our source data comes from RealClearPolitics.com; specifically from their daily presidential approval ratings "poll of polls" graphic page. We take their daily numbers, log them, and then average each month's data into a single number -- which is then shown on our monthly charts here (a "poll of polls of polls," if you will...). You can read a much-more detailed explanation of our source data and methodology on our "About Obama Poll Watch" page, if you're interested.

Questions or comments? Use the Email Chris page to drop me a private note.

 

Column Archives

[Jun 12], [Apr 12], [Mar 12], [Feb 12], [Jan 12], [Dec 11], [Nov 11], [Oct 11], [Sep 11], [Aug 11], [Jul 11], [Jun 11], [May 11], [Apr 11], [Mar 11], [Feb 11], [Jan 11], [Dec 10], [Nov 10], [Oct 10], [Sep 10], [Aug 10], [Jul 10], [Jun 10], [May 10], [Apr 10], [Mar 10], [Feb 10], [Jan 10], [Dec 09], [Nov 09], [Oct 09], [Sep 09], [Aug 09], [Jul 09], [Jun 09], [May 09], [Apr 09], [Mar 09]

 

Obama's All-Time Statistics

Monthly
Highest Monthly Approval -- 2/09 -- 63.4%
Lowest Monthly Approval -- 10/11 -- 43.4%

Highest Monthly Disapproval -- 9/11, 10/11 -- 51.2%
Lowest Monthly Disapproval -- 1/09 -- 19.6%

Daily
Highest Daily Approval -- 2/15/09 -- 65.5%
Lowest Daily Approval -- 10/9/11 -- 42.0%

Highest Daily Disapproval -- 8/30/11 -- 53.2%
Lowest Daily Disapproval -- 1/29/09 -- 19.3%

 

Obama's Raw Monthly Data

[All-time high in bold, all-time low underlined.]

Month -- (Approval / Disapproval / Undecided)
06/12 -- 47.8 / 47.8 / 4.4
05/12 -- 48.1 / 47.8 / 4.1
04/12 -- 47.8 / 47.1 / 5.1
03/12 -- 47.7 / 47.2 / 5.1
02/12 -- 48.2 / 47.2 / 4.6
01/12 -- 46.3 / 48.3 / 5.4
12/11 -- 45.1 / 49.5 / 5.4
11/11 -- 44.4 / 50.2 / 5.4
10/11 -- 43.4 / 51.2 / 5.4
09/11 -- 43.5 / 51.2 / 5.3
08/11 -- 43.8 / 50.7 / 5.5
07/11 -- 46.2 / 47.8 / 6.0
06/11 -- 48.5 / 46.0 / 5.5
05/11 -- 51.4 / 43.1 / 5.5
04/11 -- 46.4 / 48.2 / 5.4
03/11 -- 48.1 / 46.4 / 5.5
02/11 -- 49.4 / 44.5 / 6.1
01/11 -- 48.5 / 45.7 / 5.8
12/10 -- 45.5 / 48.1 / 6.4
11/10 -- 45.5 / 49.0 / 5.5
10/10 -- 45.5 / 49.1 / 5.4
09/10 -- 45.7 / 49.7 / 4.6
08/10 -- 45.3 / 49.5 / 5.2
07/10 -- 46.6 / 47.4 / 6.0
06/10 -- 47.6 / 46.7 / 5.7
05/10 -- 48.1 / 45.5 / 6.4
04/10 -- 47.8 / 46.5 / 5.7
03/10 -- 48.1 / 46.4 / 5.5
02/10 -- 47.9 / 46.1 / 6.0
01/10 -- 49.2 / 45.3 / 5.5
12/09 -- 49.4 / 44.9 / 5.7
11/09 -- 51.1 / 43.5 / 5.4
10/09 -- 52.2 / 41.9 / 5.9
09/09 -- 52.7 / 42.0 / 5.3
08/09 -- 52.8 / 40.8 / 6.4
07/09 -- 56.4 / 38.1 / 5.5
06/09 -- 59.8 / 33.6 / 6.6
05/09 -- 61.4 / 31.6 / 7.0
04/09 -- 61.0 / 30.8 / 8.2
03/09 -- 60.9 / 29.9 / 9.2
02/09 -- 63.4 / 24.4 / 12.2
01/09 -- 63.1 / 19.6 / 17.3

 

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

33 Comments on “Obama Poll Watch -- June, 2012”

  1. [1] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    i do believe i have some quatloos coming my way. fork 'em over guys.

  2. [2] 
    Chris1962 wrote:

    CW: All of this meant virtually nothing for Obama in the polls. There were minor daily fluctuations, but throughout the month Obama's numbers stayed so close to exactly even that the "lead" (whether Obama's daily approval average beat, tied, or was beaten by his daily disapproval average) changed six times. He started the month barely ahead, he ended the month barely ahead, and the fluctuations were tiny throughout the whole month, and centered on the turnover point. To put it another way, a month-long tie.

    Here we are again. No matter what he does, nothing happens to his numbers. No bump for the immigration thing. No meaningful decline for the bad job numbers. No bump for CrapCare (although it's still early). I'll bet we have a long summer of more boring poll numbers. It's so annoying how unreadable this election is.

  3. [3] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    nypoet22 -

    You did indeed call this one right, as I recall.

    Chris1962 -

    What astounded me was how even in the detail chart it's becoming almost impossible to see any movement whatsoever.

    -CW

  4. [4] 
    Chris1962 wrote:

    Isn't that bizarre, only four months before the election? Isn't this entire election season strange as hell? There's nothing even exciting about it. They're running statistically even, with no drama going on anywhere. And even when when you think there's gonna be some drama — gay rights, immigration, CrapCare — nothing happens. Sheesh.

  5. [5] 
    Michale wrote:

    While I'll gladly pay up, I simply have to call foul..

    Not on the analysis, but on the polls themselves...

    On the other hand, to counter all the bad stuff Obama had, he DID have the AZ ruling that was nominally in his favor and, of course, the ObamaCare ruling.....

    So, it's possible that they balanced each other out...

    But, like CB said... "Sheeesh"....

    Michale.....

  6. [6] 
    Michale wrote:

    Joshua,

    i do believe i have some quatloos coming my way. fork 'em over guys.

    Just post your bank account info, including PIN and Login info and I'll make sure those quatloos are transferred forthwith.. :D

    Michale.....

  7. [7] 
    Chris1962 wrote:

    Michale: Not on the analysis, but on the polls themselves...

    Y'know, I'm starting to hear chatter about the polling, i.e., something is "off." Chris Matthews made a comment about it. The Dem PPP polling place admitted, themselves, that they were off by about 16 points (!!!) on the North Carolina gay-marriage/gay-unions vote and didn't know why, but don't trust national polling on the gay issue anymore. The Wisconsin recall election was totally off, calling it a "tight" race (remember how everyone was saying that we might be up all night; THAT'S how close it was going to be?) when it wasn't even anywhere near it.

    Typically, I follow Gallup (registered voters, although half of registered voters don't even vote) and Rasmussen (likely voters), because both do daily polling and 3-day averages, and between the two of them, you can get a decent sense of what the national sentiment is.

    As for the news organizations (CNN, CBS, NBC, New York Times, Fox, Wall St. Journal, AP), I take them with a grain of salt. I've always felt, for years, that they were sloppy with their demographics (e.g., using outdated models; putting too much weight on youths, who are notorious for not turning out; etc.)

    And there's one polling org — Kaiser — that I pay absolutely no attention to anymore. It always sticks out like a sore thumb and reminds me of that polling org that Kos eventually fired, which turned out to be cooking the numbers.

    But, bottom line, something just feels plain "off" with the polling, in general, as Matthews said. And he's an old political war horse, who's been in the game forever. And he said it just as I was thinking the same thing. For starters, it's not normal for Obama NOT to be getting "bumps" for anything.

  8. [8] 
    Michale wrote:

    Because the presidential election will be the overwhelming story from now until Election Day, the head-to-head polling between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama will be much more pertinent and newsworthy than our monthly look at how Obama is doing in the "job approval" polling

    I think, once you start looking at state by state polls, the numbers won't be very pretty for Obama..

    However, in the 15 states CNN calls its battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin — Romney leads Obama, 51 percent to 43 percent. Notably, though, the CNN/ORC International group includes three states thought to be comfortably in the Romney column this cycle: Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri.
    http://news.yahoo.com/poll-romney-claims-slight-edge-15-battleground-states-164545408.html;_ylt=A2KLOzGP5vJPnRUA.Q3QtDMD

  9. [9] 
    Chris1962 wrote:

    I like hearing what the war horses have to say, like Rove and Trippi: http://video.foxnews.com/v/1706651835001/

  10. [10] 
    Michale wrote:

    http://twitchy.com/2012/07/04/shameful-left-celebrates-independence-day-by-slamming-america/

    What is it about elitist Leftists that they always have to cap on America???

    If it's so bad here, why don't they just trip the frak out the door and don't let it hit them on their ass on the way out...

    Tell me.. What's the attraction of slamming down the country that has given them soo much???

    Michale.....

  11. [11] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    Just post your bank account info, including PIN and Login info and I'll make sure those quatloos are transferred forthwith.. :D

    triskelion national, account number U6070WN3D, PIN#1701

    heck, i said approval and disapproval would both be within 3 points of 47.5, but i didn't think they'd be within 3 TENTHS of a point!

    ;)
    JL

  12. [12] 
    Michale wrote:

    triskelion national, account number U6070WN3D, PIN#1701

    Good answer! :D

    heck, i said approval and disapproval would both be within 3 points of 47.5, but i didn't think they'd be within 3 TENTHS of a point!

    When yer good, yer good..

    It's amazing (suspiciously so) that Obama's poll numbers are so steady...

    It's undeniable that he has taken some huge hits this last month or so..

    I wouldn't have thought that the pluses would have compensated, as they were "mixed review" pluses...

    Michale.....

  13. [13] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Chris1962,

    But, bottom line, something just feels plain "off" with the polling, in general...

    That sounds right. Because, taking everything into account about Romney and about how the Republicans have been acting for the last four years, Obama shouldn't have to worry about not getting bumps in his poll numbers ... he should be head and shoulders above his lame Republican challenger.

    But, then, when you think about it some more, the polls are not really a reflection of who the candidates are, neither what they have said nor what they have done.

    No, the polls reflect more upon the electorate, themselves. And, clearly, when 60% of voters who identify themselves as Republican reject the Enlightenment, for God's sake, don't be too surprised when poll results don't look normal!

    And, besides, Americans have been divided politically forever, you know, no matter what. :)

  14. [14] 
    Chris1962 wrote:

    Michale: It's amazing (suspiciously so) that Obama's poll numbers are so steady...

    I think Team-Obama's biggest concern should be that he never manages to get above 50% and stay there. And he's not showing very well in a lot of those battleground states, either, as you had mentioned earlier. I'd be getting nervous, if I were Team Obama, seeing as undecideds generally don't break for the incumbent.

    Hey, no more live camera in your shop? I was keeping an eye on the customers for ya.

  15. [15] 
    Michale wrote:

    Liz,

    he should be head and shoulders above his lame Republican challenger.

    Agreed.. If Romney were as bad as the Left claims him to be and Obama is as good as the Left claims him to be, then Obama should be stomping Romney out of the election..

    So, two possibilities exist.

    1. Romney isn't as bad as the Left thinks..

    OR

    B. Obama is not as good as the Left thinks..

    But, then, when you think about it some more, the polls are not really a reflection of who the candidates are, neither what they have said nor what they have done.

    Exactly..

    It's perception that is all important..

    CB,

    if I were Team Obama, seeing as undecideds generally don't break for the incumbent.

    Elections usually favor the incumbent.. This is conventional wisdom that is based on one thing..

    That the incumbent has a half way decent record to run on...

    Obama doesn't... And that's why he is having so many problems...

    Hey, no more live camera in your shop? I was keeping an eye on the customers for ya.

    I'll have it up for the weekend. On Thu and Fri, I work nekkid.. :D

    Ya'all are too nice to be exposed to that horror.... :D

    Michale.....

  16. [16] 
    Michale wrote:

    http://www.wnd.com/2012/07/obamas-social-security-number-challenged/

    I know, I know... Ya'all will poo poo this away, even thought it's chock full o' facts...

    But Obama ignores this at his own peril...

    Michale.....

  17. [17] 
    Michale wrote:

    "I'll work with anybody who wants to work with me to continue to improve our health care system and our health care laws, but the law I passed is here to stay"
    -President Barack Obama

    The EGO on this guy is simply AMAZING...

    No one had ANYTHING to do with passing ObamaCare..

    It was ALL Obama....

    This guy is not even PRETENDING to be anything but a king....

    Michale......

  18. [18] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    1. Romney isn't as bad as the Left thinks..

    OR

    B. Obama is not as good as the Left thinks..

    as i understand such things, the left tends not to think obama is all that good, nor that romney is all that bad. the far left tends to regard obama as a giant disappointment and romney as a weaselly waste of space. some on the left are planning to vote for obama (mostly due to the make-up of the SCOTUS), but few retain any illusions about him being a genuine ally.

  19. [19] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    I know, I know... Ya'all will poo poo this away, even thought it's chock full o' facts...

    factually, i'm in no position to know. however, the tea partiers have cried wolf so many times on obama's background, in terms of public perception the the actual facts practically don't even matter.

  20. [20] 
    Chris1962 wrote:

    "I'll work with anybody who wants to work with me to continue to improve our health care system and our health care laws, but the law I passed is here to stay"
    -President Barack Obama

    Not if you're a one-termer, O. (Gosh, this guy loves to play the role of dictator. Who wants to break the news to our public servant that We, the People — his bosses — decide if CrapCare is here to stay; not him.)

  21. [21] 
    Michale wrote:

    factually, i'm in no position to know. however, the tea partiers have cried wolf so many times on obama's background, in terms of public perception the the actual facts practically don't even matter.

    Agreed.. When you DO have the facts on your side, no one listens..

    Much like the Bush Bashers of the Bush years. They screamed so much a bout Bush that people just turned them off..

    Looking at it in THAT context, I can understand why ya'all would not be interested in more Obama/Forgery points..

    But ya gotta admit.. The evidence IS compelling.. And the only way to explain it is by Coincidence/Typo/C.A.R.E.....

    But how many of those can one man have in his life before people start wondering???

    CB,

    Who wants to break the news to our public servant that We, the People — his bosses — decide if CrapCare is here to stay; not him.

    This is so dead on ballz accurate, it's scary!! :D

    Michale.....

    Michale....

  22. [22] 
    Michale wrote:

    factually, i'm in no position to know. however, the tea partiers have cried wolf so many times on obama's background, in terms of public perception the the actual facts practically don't even matter.

    Conversely, even the National Enquirer breaks a solid news story now and again... :D

    Belushi and Edwards come to mind....

    Michale.....

  23. [23] 
    Chris1962 wrote:
  24. [24] 
    Michale wrote:

    CB,

    47% Consider Obama’s Political Views Extreme, 31% Say Same of Romney

    Barring any major upheavals, the 2012 election is going to make 2000 look like nothing...

    Michale.....

  25. [25] 
    Chris1962 wrote:

    Michale: Barring any major upheavals

    Trump is saying he's convinced that O is gonna go to war with Iran just to win the election. Maybe that Mayan calendar is right after all. ;D

  26. [26] 
    Michale wrote:

    It wouldn't surprise me..

    NOTHING would surprise me about Obama...

    With his AZ semi win and his ObamaCare "win", I bet Obama feels he has locked in his Base support.

    So, by going after Iran, he is thinking he will bring over some Independents and NPAs...

    Like I said, it wouldn't surprise me.. We have a Nixon Jr in the White House and his own political survival is his SOLE concern...

    Michale.....

  27. [27] 
    Michale wrote:

    PLACE YER BETS!!! PLACE YER BETS!!!

    JOBS numbers will come out about 0830hrs EDT...

    Any wagers???

    I'll wager that the Unemployment goes down .1%, but that the JOBS Created number is dismal...

    Michale.....

  28. [28] 
    Michale wrote:

    Interesting take on the economic issues this country faces...

    http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/07/05/economic-ignorance-gap-between-liberals-and-conservatives/

    Explains it so even a dullard like me can understand it...

    Michale.....

  29. [29] 
    Michale wrote:

    Well, I was half right..

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/48092010

    Unemployment stayed at 8.2, but JOBs creation was dismal. WAY below projections..

    Fun thing is, Obama said that, if we passed the STIMULUS, Unemployment would be about 5.6% right now...

    Michale.....

  30. [30] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    Explains it so even a dullard like me can understand it...

    you're no dullard michale, and i think if you take a second read you'll see Root mirroring the same economic ignorance he sees in others. there is a world outside the US, and the current economic conditions are much more complex than the picture he's presenting. certainly both the left and the right, private businesspeople and public servants alike, all tend not to really understand the challenges that the others face.

    but root is propagating more ignorance with his talking points about how ignorant others are.

  31. [31] 
    Chris1962 wrote:

    Looks like America's first gay president is having a little problem with his African-American constituency: http://washingtonexaminer.com/black-pastors-target-obama/article/2501482

  32. [32] 
    Michale wrote:

    I find it interesting that, once again, Obama is marching to the GOP's tune..

    Last time, Obama claimed that the private sector is "doing fine"... GOP pounced on the line and Obama couldn't backtrack fast enough..

    Today, in an early campaign stop, Obama claimed that the dismal JOBs number was "a step in the right direction".

    The GOP was incredulous... By the afternoon campaign stump, Obama had dropped that line of thought...

    I guess Obama has extended all the bowing to GOP leaders as well.. :D

    Michale.....

  33. [33] 
    Chris1962 wrote:

    Interesting article:

    Southern Bellwether
    The Democratic convention is a national coming-out party for Charlotte. But diverse North Carolina is also a harbinger of how the presidential race could go.
    http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/charlotte-s-coming-out-party-20120628?page=1

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