Trump Backs Down On Farmworkers
Donald Trump bent to reality last week, issuing an order that amounts to a stunning turnaround on his "mass deportation" policy. Instead of rounding up every undocumented immigrant in sight everywhere, ICE will now back off on raiding farms, meatpacking plants, hotels, and restaurants. Because the reality of the situation is that if you removed all the undocumented immigrants from these industries, they would essentially grind to a halt. Which Trump has (thankfully) now finally realized.
In typical Trumpian fashion, this was not a well-thought-out plan which was carefully implemented, it was an off-the-cuff decision Trump made after talking to one person. So it remains to be seen what the impact of it all will be, as the dust settles.
Last week, ICE raids made the news in a big way in Los Angeles, with raids on garment factories and a local Home Depot making the biggest headlines. But ICE also started raiding farms and rounding up farmworkers in Oxnard, an agricultural region up the coast from Los Angeles. Other California counties were also targets of farm raids as well. And the reaction was immediate: "Growers reported that 30 to 60 percent of workers stopped reporting to the fields in the days after the raids." It is estimated that undocumented immigrants make up over 40 percent of the nation's farmworkers, just for reference.
If the raids had continued and spread across all of California's (and the nation's) agricultural regions, then immigrants would have stopped working the fields everywhere, for fear of being rounded up. The labor force would have been cut in half (if not more), which would mean a whole lot of work just would not get done. This would directly lead to crops rotting in the fields, farmers having to plow fields under because they did not have enough labor to harvest the crops, and shortages of produce in the supermarkets (along with skyrocketing prices). This stuff ain't rocket science, folks. It's pretty easy to predict the outcome of such widespread raids, in fact.
Farmers -- most of whom vote Republican -- promptly freaked out. They have reportedly been "bombarding their Senate and congressional offices to voice concerns." Which must have filtered upward to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, who picked up the phone and gave Trump a call:
On Wednesday morning, President Trump took a call from Brooke Rollins, his secretary of agriculture, who relayed a growing sense of alarm from the heartland.
Farmers and agriculture groups, she said, were increasingly uneasy about his immigration crackdown. Federal agents had begun to aggressively target work sites in recent weeks, with the goal of sharply bolstering the number of arrests and deportations of undocumented immigrants.
Farmers rely on immigrants to work long hours, Ms. Rollins said. She told the president that farm groups had been warning her that their employees would stop showing up to work out of fear, potentially crippling the agricultural industry.
Fortunately, she convinced him. Trump posted soon afterwards on social media:
Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace.
He then followed up by telling a reporter:
Our farmers are being hurt badly by, you know, they have very good workers, they have worked for them for 20 years. They're not citizens, but they've turned out to be, you know, great. And we're going to have to do something about that. We can't take farmers and take all their people and send them back because they don't have maybe what they're supposed to have, maybe not.
That's right -- Donald Trump just called undocumented immigrants "great." Not only is he backing down on the policy, he is performing a complete turnaround in his rhetoric as well. He is finally (slowly) realizing that the vast majority of undocumented immigrants work very hard, are good people, and they form the backbone of several important American industries. If you take them away, those industries will not be able to hire Americans to do the same work, period. So the work just will not get done.
An ICE memo went out soon after, telling all the regional ICE offices: "Effective today, please hold on all work site enforcement investigations/operations on agriculture (including aquaculture and meat packing plants), restaurants and operating hotels."
Because the entire policy shift happened so quickly, without any planning or coordination, it caught others in Trump's inner circle by surprise. The "round them all up" faction is reportedly apoplectic about this change in policy, and Trump has even been getting pushback from some of his MAGA followers who were blindsided by Trump backing down in such dramatic fashion. They've been getting a nonstop message that all immigrants are criminals and murderers and rapists and now all of a sudden Trump is calling large groups of them "very good" and "great." You can understand their ideological whiplash at having to process this new shift in Trump's thinking.
ICE still hasn't quite gotten on board with the new policy, as it was reported that farm raids continued in Oxnard on Friday, the day after the new ICE memo went out. But by this week, they'll probably be working within the new guidelines. What this will do to their quest to reach Stephen Miller's announced quota of 3,000 arrests per day is anyone's guess -- farmworkers, meatpacking plants, restaurants and hotels employ a lot of immigrants. If ICE can't raid any of them, they'll have to increase their raids in other areas and economic sectors.
This may lead to a parade of big business owners and industry lobbyists trying to convince Trump to include their own industries in the ICE raid ban. This reportedly already happened, as the restaurant industry saw Trump's comments on farmworkers and reached out to him so quickly and so successfully that Trump included restaurants and hotels in the official order (even though he had not directly referred to these industries in his earlier comments). There are plenty of other industries (construction is a good example) who heavily rely on immigrant labor -- perhaps not to the degree that the agricultural industry does, but still to a significant degree -- that all must be inundating the White House with calls right now, to avoid massive disruptions in their own labor forces. Will we see a steadily-growing list of industries that are exempt from ICE raids, or was this a one-time policy shift that won't change? Nobody knows, at this point.
A better answer would be for Congress to debate and pass an immigration reform bill that addressed the reality of immigrant labor in America in a sane and reasonable way, but I'm not exactly holding my breath waiting for that to happen.
Even so, the shift in rhetoric as Trump is forced to back down is a welcome one, I have to say. Trump has long focused exclusively on the bad apples, never admitting that the vast majority of immigrants are just here to raise a family and make a better life for themselves. Even with their focus on arresting criminals, two-thirds of the people ICE has picked up under Trump have no criminal record at all. That's because most immigrants are not criminals. Most immigrants work hard -- very hard -- doing jobs nobody else will do (certainly not for the pittance they are paid to do it). Now that farmworkers, meatpackers, waitresses, maids, cooks, and dishwashers have been identified as being the essential workers that they are, the door is open for others to be included in the "great" category of undocumented workers.
To tell the truth, I did expect Trump to cave on farmworker raids. The reality of it all is so inescapable -- if undocumented workers are either rounded up or too scared to go to work, then the entire food industry would have been at serious risk of collapsing. Prices would soar, there would be shortages, all while good food rotted in the fields. But I have to say, I was completely surprised at how quickly Trump did back down. I expected the whole thing to take months before Trump admitted defeat and was forced to create some sort of carve-out for farmworkers (let alone restaurant or hotel workers). So I have to applaud the Agriculture secretary for so effectively making the case to Trump that he immediately backed down. Doing so will (hopefully) avoid widespread disruptions in the harvest and the accompanying widespread impact on the food supply. I'm even hopeful that other industries will eventually be added to the list, since immigrants are so vital to the American workforce in so many different areas.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
This is good news, of course. The triumph of sanity over insanity is always good news.
But I am now more curious than ever about the "round them all up" faction of the White House staff that you mention, saying they are "reportedly apoplectic about this change in policy". Who exactly are these people? What did THEY think was going to happen to the American economy, on their president's watch, had they succeeded in rounding all the undocumented immigrants up? What was their plan, their big picture, their long game?
Are these people intelligent in any sense, or are they ideological morons who don't actually think about the world as it really is? Trump, I understand. He sells what he thinks will sell for his own benefit, and he doesn't actually have any beliefs at all - it's just transactional for, again, his own benefit. But his advisers, who he does listen to and who do work out the actual operational orders, legal documents, manpower allocations, and media releases that he has no idea of: where do they come from, and why are they so incredibly, unbelievably stupid about the real world of economics and politics?
TACO. Trump Always Chickens Out. And here he's doing it again. Predictable, as you say about your own instinct on this cruel and often illegal 'deport them all' policy. But the reason he always chickens out is he's getting incredibly bad political and policy advice from ... from whom?
Consistently, over many years now, incredibly bad political and policy advice. From whom?
contrary to popular belief, donald is not stupid. he just plays stupid on TV.
JL,
Yes, he definitely is not. And, to the point,
I've beem thinking that this new war between Israel and Iran opens the door to many possibilities for sustainable peace in the Middle East, at long last. Which would include Trump talking about giving Bibi those bunker-busting bombs (and the bombers) that will in turn give the Iranians something to think about. But, as with most geopolitical crises, it's going to take some pretty deft US leadership of the kind rarely if ever seen in my lifetime.
If Trump is willing and able to provide that kind of leadership and get the region on track to solving the Iranian nuclear threat as well as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, then he may very well get that Nobel peace prize he dreams of. People ...er, presidents have received that particular recognition for a lot less!
In typical Trumpian fashion, this was not a well-thought-out plan which was carefully implemented, it was an off-the-cuff decision Trump made after talking to one person.
Well, if it was a decision that Trump made after talking to only one person (doubtful), I will speculate that it was an individual with the surname "Trump" and definitely was not anyone named "Stephen Miller."
He is finally (slowly) realizing that the vast majority of undocumented immigrants work very hard, are good people, and they form the backbone of several important American industries.
I'm going to take issue with the idea that Trump didn't already know this since he's definitely been exploiting (and attempting to exploit) undocumented immigrants for decades in his several "important American industries," and he obviously claims to hire "only the best people." Trump therefore admitting that the people he hires are "great" isn't exactly a revelation. Yes, there's obviously some sarcasm in that exercise of dot connection.
Because the entire policy shift happened so quickly, without any planning or coordination, it caught others in Trump's inner circle by surprise.
This is the group we are referring to when we make the factual statement that connecting the dots isn't exactly the strong suit of many of the MAGA minions.
The "round them all up" faction is reportedly apoplectic about this change in policy, and Trump has even been getting pushback from some of his MAGA followers who were blindsided by Trump backing down in such dramatic fashion.
How uninformed and/or outright ignorant do you have to be to be "blindsided" that an opportunist who has been exploiting undocumented immigrants for decades would ultimately take your side regarding said issue when the rubber met the proverbial road? Trump will obviously still attempt to take both sides of the issue; meanwhile, it'll be interesting to watch as the so-called "blindsided" MAGAts meet the wheels of the bus going round and round.
To tell the truth, I did expect Trump to cave on farmworker raids.
You think!
Note (by punctuation) that that is definitely not a question; that's a compliment. :)
nypoet22
2
contrary to popular belief, donald is not stupid. he just plays stupid on TV.
Yes, but I would say that depends entirely on what you specifically mean by the term "stupid." There are definitely demonstrable ways in which Trump is infinitely ignorant; he's just definitely not "stupid" regarding the issues of exploitation, manipulation, and pathological fabrication and therefore has no practical need of science and actual factual information because he generally takes both sides of any issue you can name while routinely creating his own reality when it suits him.
He also believes his own totally fabricated bullshit. How stupid is that?
Elizabeth Miller
3
If Trump is willing and able to provide that kind of leadership and get the region on track to solving the Iranian nuclear threat as well as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, then he may very well get that Nobel peace prize he dreams of. People ...er, presidents have received that particular recognition for a lot less!
The Norwegian Nobel Committee handing a Nobel Peace Prize to the guy who actually ripped up the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action a.k.a. Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and actually also repeatedly discussed the idea of Gaza being taken over by the United States and floating the name "Riviera of the Middle East" and describing Gaza's potential as a resort and sharing an AI-generated video on his American Pravda social media depicting "Trump Gaza" (complete with a golden statue of himself) would be interesting as hell but seems highly improbable (in my opinion).
I mean, keep in mind that Trump is still the jerk who routinely speaks of Canada as the potential 51st state of America, covets Greenland and is definitely the moron who started a trade war with generally the entire human world and also islands containing no humans whatsoever but definitely some penguins. Just saying. :)
ICE officials told to resume raids on hotels, restaurants, and farms
Well, that was quick. I guess he is bitter about the whole No Kings being the biggest protest in American history while the military was having too much fun at his underattended birthday parade...
BashiBazouk
7
ICE officials told to resume raids on hotels, restaurants, and farms
Well, that was quick.
Wow, Bash! That really was quick.
What could be the explanation for this rapid complete 180 degree flip-flip on the flip-flip?
Don't tell me. *thinking* It's TACO Tuesday!
I guess he is bitter about the whole No Kings being the biggest protest in American history while the military was having too much fun at his underattended birthday parade...
That too. Is this perchance going to be one of those "immigrants for me but not for thee" type issues? When does ICE raid Trump Winery, hotels, (obviously) Mar-a-Lago, etc.?
I believe that Fat Donny's behavior is often more understandable if you just consider how an old man with Alzheimer's behaves. You can tell him something and maybe he'll sound reasonable for a short while. Before too long, whatever dementia fantasies and hallucinations he has return and dominate his thinking.
The orange one said that stuff about farms and hotels, but if you check the record, he contradicted himself very quickly. Stephen Miller gets the last word and resets gramp's immigrant default setting from "great" to "criminal invader".
ICE raided Delta Downs in Louisiana today. Horse racing is the "sport of kings". You've got to have money to play. Delta Downs is on the lower end, but if they go after this industry's immigrant workers, they will definitely cripple it. A lot of wealthy people will be very unhappy.
ICE raid
JMfC [1] -
Stephen Miller. And his henchmen. That's who I was talking about. They have no long game, they are all about cruelty for cruelty's sake, I think.
and I would check the box of "ideological morons," personally...
-CW
nypoet22 [2] -
OK, now THAT was funny!
:-D
-CW
LizM [3] -
You may be right about the bunker-busters (the rest of the week should answer that question), but I think the Nobel (or "Noble" as he calls it) Peace Prize will be forever out of reach for him, personally. Just my $0.02...
-CW
BashiBazouk [7] -
Yeah, major egg on my face. I mean... you try to write a nice article about Trump... you even avoid using the TACO term... and it all falls apart.
(sigh)
-CW
JFC -
Good point about the old-man thinking. I keep wondering when the media will actually notice this. He has seemed out of touch and very low energy for like the past year or so, at least...
-CW
Chris Weigant
13
nypoet22 [2] -
OK, now THAT was funny!
It was... and I'm standing myself in the corner (again) for apparently not realizing he was joking.
@kick,
to be fair, your explanation was pretty much exactly what i meant.
;)
JL
Chris,
You may be right about the bunker-busters (the rest of the week should answer that question), but I think the Nobel (or "Noble" as he calls it) Peace Prize will be forever out of reach for him, personally. Just my $0.02...
Yes, well, I am not convinced that Trump knows much about the art of the deal nor about how to solve the Iran nuclear issue nor the Israeli-Palestinian conflict nor how to generally put that entire region on a more peaceful track, so I wouldn't bet on Trump receiving a Nobel peace prize, either.
nypoet22
18
to be fair, your explanation was pretty much exactly what i meant.
:)