Happy Thursday, everyone!

We are turning over the podium to a guest author today, for perhaps the final installment of our "let the commenters write columns" experiment. The reason is good news, however, as I will be starting to write again on Tuesdays and Thursdays from now on (or until further notice), as I have reached the milestone on my writing project that was the goal for this month already. Woo hoo!

Anyway, we got the following column submission from "michty6" a while back, but didn't even have time to do the formatting required until now. Sorry for the delay! When submitted, the article was preceded by a cartoon which I couldn't use for copyright reasons -- but, thankfully, we had the perfect C.W. Cunningham cartoon to use instead.

Without further ado, I now turn the soapbox over to "michty6" for the day.

-- Chris Weigant

About the Cartoonist | Reprint Policy

Trickle Down, Trickle Out, And Trickle Up

I can't imagine how the rich and wealthy persuaded Reagan to become the biggest advocate for trickle down economics or where they even got the idea from. Personally I imagine a meeting with Mr. Burns and Count Fudge-ula (from the Simpsons) with many other wealthy people up in his castle, sitting 'round the table:

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As we approach the "convention season" in the race for the presidency, it behooves us to take another look at how the electoral math currently stands. Mitt Romney chose to announce his running mate rather early, which is just beginning to be reflected in the polling. But, starting next week, each party will likely get a noticeable "convention bump" in the polls. Because the two conventions are happening right after one another, this should stir the big data pot well into September. Which is why now is a good time to look at the state of the race, to establish a baseline to measure all this expected frenzied movement.

We only have time for a short column today, so we're only going to look at two charts this time around, and then quickly wrap up with my picks. I promise next time around we'll take a deeper look at what is going on. Let's begin with Mitt Romney's chart (click on either of these charts to see a bigger copy):

[Definition of terms: Strong means 10% or better in the polls, Weak means 5% or better, and Barely is under five percent.]

The last time we took a look at the math was two weeks ago (the vertical lines in the charts show the dates of these columns). In that time period, Romney showed some positive movement, which was dampened by some weakening. How much of this was due to the selection of Paul Ryan is anyone's guess, really.

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Today we present an article written by one of ChrisWeigant.com's most prolific commenters, "Michale." When I called for article submissions for this month, I said I would not limit the point of view presented, so (to put it mildly) this is not exactly an article I would have written myself. But it is indeed the type of article I'd write (from a very different viewpoint, of course) -- an analysis of the upcoming election and how outside events might change it, for better or worse. So, without further ado, I will turn the CW.com soapbox over to Michale for today.

-- Chris Weigant

The Middle East And The Upcoming U.S. Election

I have been reading a lot that some Israeli leaders are concerned that an attack on Iran might actually strengthen Obama's re-election chances.

If this were true, I would imagine y'all would be hoping and praying for an Israeli attack on Iran. [Editorial note: "smiley" omitted here...]

But seriously, I don't see that happening. While it's true that some Independents and NPAs ("No Party Affiliation") would rally behind Obama if he jumps to Israel's defense (which is by NO means assured) I don't think the number would be large. Reason being that Obama has burned too many bridges with Independents and NPAs for us to switch our vote based on one incident.

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[Program Note: I wrote the following column last November, when a political storm was breaking over Herman Cain. Sadly, what I wrote back then is just as applicable now that the Republican candidate for Senate in Missouri has exposed to the world his inner thoughts on rape victims. This story seems to be growing, seeing as how Paul Ryan has worked with Todd Akin on anti-abortion bills which reflect this extremist viewpoint. The new "mainstream" Republican position has been slowly shifting towards being in favor of outlawing abortion in all cases -- no exceptions for rape victims, incest victims, or even the life of the mother. Democrats would do well to point out that this extremism would have serious consequences if ever enacted. Follow the logic through to the end. Put it in as blunt language as possible. This is what the Republican Party now stands for. Point it out.]

Originally published November 2, 2011

Championing fatherhood rights for rapists would seem, at first glance, to be a politically suicidal position for any candidate for office in America. After all, who would champion any rights for rapists? Rapists aren't exactly a powerful political lobby in Washington, one would think. But this year's Republican nomination race seems to be testing this, in a big way. Maybe they're trying to get out the rapist vote, or something.

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Before we begin -- We Have A Winner!

Way back in April, in FTP [208] we ran a "Call the Veepstakes" contest. In reviewing the entries, we at first thought that nobody correctly guessed who Mitt's Veep would turn out to be. If this had been the case (because that would have qualified it as a "tie"), the winner would have been Michale, who commented at my site and picked Condoleezza Rice... but got closest to the actual date with his guess of "3 weeks before Tampa."

But we then looked closer and found one entrant had indeed correctly (if unenthusiastically) picked Paul Ryan. So, the winner of our Veepstakes contest is none other than Rescisco, who posted his comment at the Huffington Post. He or she failed to guess a date, but it didn't matter because nobody else selected Ryan as their choice. So -- congratulations to Rescisco, who is hereby awarded bragging rights in the comments today. Well done!

Moving right along, normally our Friday columns open with a bit of lighthearted news roundup, which is where I'd point out things like what Donald Trump is up to (always good for a laugh), and then move on to mutant butterflies in Japan due to radioactivity from their power plant disaster, which would end with a joke about Mothra.

But this week has been anything but lighthearted, and nuclear accident jokes are pretty borderline to begin with, so instead I'd like to highlight two excellent articles worth reading, both on the subject of Mitt Romney's campaign and plans for the future.

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[Program Note: As many of you are aware, I've been spending time this month finishing up a book proposal I've been writing (for quite some time now). Many have asked "How's it going?" so I'm happy to update everyone. I'm within days of the final review draft of the first three chapters being finished. This is a notable milestone, and after completing it I will be swept up in the preparations for the Democratic National Convention. Because I spent today working on it, I'm running the following column repeat, which first appeared in August of 2008, during the last presidential election cycle. It's a good reminder for everyone who gets too close to politics at times. Opus's advice still stands the test of time, I should point out.]

Originally published August 11, 2008.

If you're sick of politics, and don't want to read another single thing about it before Election Day, then you should just skip this column. I recommend taking Opus' advice in this situation, personally.

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Mitt Romney's selection of Paul Ryan for his running mate is already worrying some in Republican circles. These unnamed sources (most of them refused to publicly put their name to such worries) aren't just concerned that Mitt Romney may lose the election to Barack Obama, they are also raising the possibility that Ryan's choice may put at risk many "down-ballot" seats in the House of Representatives. Which leads to the obvious question: if their fears are true, could it mean Democrats have a much better chance at taking the House back in the upcoming elections? To put it another way, will we see "Speaker Nancy Pelosi" again next year?

Admittedly, it'll be tough to accurately say, even after the election returns are in. It's impossible to tease from the exit polling data such nuances, even when you know the results of the election. So the entire matter is one for nothing but speculation, and will be even after the dust settles in November.

But that doesn't mean some Republicans are getting worried. One of the few who spoke on the record (to Politico) was Mark McKinnon, a former senior advisor to President George W. Bush, who had this to say about the selection of Ryan:

I think it’s a very bold choice. And an exciting and interesting pick. It’s going to elevate the campaign into a debate over big ideas. It means Romney-Ryan can run on principles and provide some real direction and vision for the Republican Party. And probably lose. Maybe big.

That's not exactly a vote of confidence. Those who weren't bold enough to go on record had similar things to say: Ryan may hurt down-ballot Republican chances, mostly due to his Medicare plan. Republicans, amusingly enough, have spent roughly the last two years whining about how Democrats run "Mediscare" ads to frighten seniors away from voting Republican, but this time around it was the Romney/Ryan camp who rolled out the first "Mediscare" ad of the 2012 campaign season. Meaning the campaign itself is worried about how the subject is going to play in the election.

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This didn't get much response when I ran it last week, so I am rebranding it as a "trivia game" rather than the "Q-word" in the hopes a few other people will respond. Also, I am lazy. Well, actually, I'm busy today and had no time to write or edit a new column.

Anyway, the bar to try for is currently a score of 35. This is both the high-water mark and the low-water mark, since we've only had one reported score so far. Surely you can do better than that! Since I wrote this last week, it has an "Olympic" sort of feel to it, so if you're sick of that sort of thing, just concentrate on the questions themselves.

There are a whole bunch of questions here, so I would strongly advise everyone to number and write down your answers, as it'll be impossible to keep track otherwise. The answers will be provided via a link at the end of the column, so you don't have to worry about "spoilers" as you scroll down.

Looking at any map, globe, or any other reference (electronic or not) is verboten. You've got to keep the spirit of the game by seeing how many of these you know off the top of your head. All of these questions are about the entire United States of America (territories and possessions excluded), unless otherwise specified.

Ready? Here we go...

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The announcement of Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney's running mate late last Friday sent a shockwave through the political and media world. The snap judgment of what passes for conventional wisdom among the chattering class is that the Ryan pick was bold (as opposed to safe), and that the election will henceforth be all about wonky details from the Ryan budget plan. "A campaign of Big Ideas!" the pundits excitedly gasped. "Just what we've always wanted!"

Well, we'll see, won't we? I tend to think that -- even given the opportunity -- most of the media will quickly get tired of actual budgetary issues and return to what they do best: shallow speculation about the horse-race aspect of the contest, focusing on meaningless trifles and shiny distractions because they are so much more fun to "report" on than digging through budgets and doing actual math. Perhaps I'm being too cynical, though. Maybe they'll surprise me.

Cynicism aside, Ryan's choice is going to make for an interesting election dynamic. Mitt Romney really has three choices now: run on the Ryan budget, come up with his own just-as-detailed budget, or try to have things both ways by running away from Ryan's budget while refusing to say what he would do differently as president. Right now it appears Romney really would like to take that third route, but my guess is that the first option is going to be forced upon him by default. Ryan's budget is now going to be (Democrats are already leaning hard on this phrase) "the Romney/Ryan budget."

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From time to time, here in these pages, we take the opportunity to pre-empt our usual talking points and instead offer up a rant. These rants are usually pretty feisty, and are fun for the whole family (so to speak). This week, we don't precisely know what to call what we've done in the talking points segment, since we don't know what the opposite of a "rant" is (maybe "snooze-fest"?). It may be boring, mostly because the subject matter is how boring the election season has so far been. If that doesn't sound like fun (for any member of the family), then I wouldn't blame you if you decided to take a nap rather than read it.

With that "fair warning" out of the way, there are two highly amusing talking points coming from the Republican camp this week. If your irony-detector is as acute as mine, you'll appreciate the GOP completely and utterly destroying two of their bedrock positions just to score a few cheap political points. I don't know about you, but I find this sort of thing to be one of the more enjoyable forms of political entertainment around.

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