Welcome back to TACO Tuesday! Once again, "Trump Always Chickens Out" rules the day....

I shouldn't be so snarky, I suppose. Because in this case, Donald Trump chickening out is a very good thing indeed. As the world waited with baited breath to see whether the two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States was going to end without a deal being reached between the two countries -- which would have assumably meant Trump making good on his threats to bomb every power plant and bridge in Iran -- Trump put out the following message:

Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal. I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.

Iran has not officially responded yet (as of this writing), but they will likely respond by both denouncing the blockade of their ports (and the seizure of their ships) as well as letting the world know that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed for the duration too. This all caps off a very chaotic few days, but will buy some time before the bombs and missiles start flying once again. So as noted, this is a good thing.

Today has been more chaotic than ever. Iran still hadn't confirmed that they would even be attending the talks proposed by Pakistan, while the American team was ready to go. But the U.S. team never got on their planes, in the end. It would have been pretty humiliating if they had flown all the way to Pakistan just to be snubbed by the Iranians, which is why they delayed leaving until they figured out what was going on.

As I wrote yesterday, the chaos surrounding the proposed negotiations was already off the charts. For starters, nobody was even quite sure when the deadline would be reached. Trump initially announced the ceasefire had been agreed to less than two hours before his last deadline (where he had been threatening to wipe out "a whole civilization"), which was two Tuesdays ago. Since it was a two-week agreement, this means it should have run out at the same time today, but somehow the White House redefined this on the fly, stating that the deadline wouldn't be reached until some unspecified point on Wednesday.

Nothing else about the proposed negotiations was clear either. Trump has been contradicting both himself as well as his top aides at a furious pace -- so much so that the mainstream media is even being forced to point out Trump's increasing incoherence. Trump seems either wildly out of his depth -- finally facing a crises he can't just make go away with a few snide or mean tweets -- or perhaps he's just plain losing what marbles he still has left. Your guess is as good as mine, at this point.

The biggest problem Iran faces in this whole Keystone Kops farce is a very basic one indeed. They haven't come right out and said it yet, but they surely must be thinking to themselves: "How can we trust a single thing that Donald Trump says or agrees to?" They have plenty of good reasons for thinking this. They could even extend it by replacing "Donald Trump" in that thought with "America," since what set all of this off was Trump (in his first term) unilaterally ripping up the J.C.P.O.A. nuclear deal Iran had forged with Barack Obama. Trump, at that time, was obsessed with destroying anything and everything that Obama had accomplished as president, and the Iran deal was just one of many things he trashed (or attempted to).

Trump lied his face off when he did rip up Obama's Iran deal. He said that it would allow Iran to do pretty much exactly what they did after the agreement was gone, even though up to that point they hadn't done any of it (and would have been barred from doing any of it right up to the present day). They had gotten rid of their enriched uranium and had ceased their enrichment program and were being inspected regularly by U.N. nuclear inspectors. Once the deal was gone, they quickly reversed course, which led to where they are now -- with 970 pounds of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity and stored in gaseous form (not "nuclear dust," as Trump keeps idiotically calling it). That is one step away from being made into weapons-grade enriched uranium.

In his second term, Trump had entered into negotiations with Iran twice before. Both times, he attacked their country while negotiations were still ongoing. So why should Iran expect anything different to happen this time around? Would you trust a president who had done that to you -- twice, inside of a year's time?

Even if a deal is reached that is somehow acceptable to the Iranians, how do they know that Trump won't just wake up on the wrong side of the bed some future morning and rip that deal up too? Trump has done absolutely nothing to instill a sense of trust in them, and in fact has done pretty much everything he could to prove how untrustworthy he (and, by extension, America) truly is.

In other words: no wonder the Iranians aren't rushing to the table, eager to negotiate.

Both sides are being hurt by the current state of affairs, it bears mentioning. The major pain is economic for both. The blockade means Iran has no way of making any money (through oil sales) and it also cuts off their supply lines from the rest of the world. That is causing real pain to their economy (what is left of it). But the Strait being closed means the price of oil has been on a rollercoaster, and the high price at the pump here in America is becoming a bigger and bigger political problem for both Trump and his fellow Republicans -- many of whom are close to panic when they contemplate their chances in the midterm elections. Continuing the ceasefire is a good thing for the stock market, which is betting that a deal will eventually be reached, but until oil is freely flowing from the Persian Gulf once again gas prices are going to continue to stay artificially high. And high prices are going to spread to the rest of the economy as well, starting with the cost of food. So it's not like Trump doesn't have any pressure on him to cut a deal too.

Assuming there is an eventual deal, people are starting to wonder what it will look like. And the answer seems to be "pretty much exactly what Obama negotiated with Iran, over a decade ago." Here's just one take on this (from today):

One explanation for the bluster on both sides is a need to cover what will be painful compromises. [Donald] Trump seems ready to accept a deal that's modestly better than the 2015 Iran nuclear deal but contains many similar provisions. It appears likely to include a total ban on enrichment, but for a limited time, perhaps as little as 10 years.

Iran will probably agree to remove its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. But, as with the earlier Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, compliance will depend on monitoring and inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency. And a deal is likely to include the release of frozen Iranian assets, as the earlier one did. Trump will insist on at least nominal limits on Iranian missiles and support for proxies. But this will be far from the "unconditional surrender" Trump wanted when the war began.

The Strait of Hormuz will be "open" when the war finally ends -- by negotiation or military force. But Iran has now demonstrated that it can use this navigational version of a nuclear weapon -- and that the world has few good ways to prevent it. If a deal emerges, Trump should include an international supervisory mechanism to oversee freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf. That international flavor isn't his style, but it's essential.

Iran may wind up with the same deal, but they'll be in a much stronger position after proving to the world what cutting off the Strait of Hormuz means. That arrow will now always be in their quiver.

As things stand, both sides increasingly need some sort of deal, but both are insisting that the other side needs it more. So for the very near future, the chaos seems likely to continue. Sooner or later the two sides will likely meet again, this time without a ticking clock hanging over them. Trump blinked -- he chickened out -- but in some ways this was the best outcome that could have happened at the present time. So everyone should truly be celebrating TACO Tuesday this time around.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant