Donald Trump's war of choice with Iran ground to a stalemate this week, and it doesn't seem like progress will be made any time soon. One week ago, Iran announced (as a goodwill gesture, most likely) that the Strait of Hormuz was open once again. Trump then made a slew of sweeping announcements of his own (as a bad-will gesture) and refused to drop his blockade of Iranian ports.

Trump is attempting to define the war the way he usually does, by gaslighting and openly lying, in the hopes that everyone will start believing his lies rather than paying attention to reality. Or just by constantly contradicting himself, showing he doesn't really have a clue as to what is really going on. The Iranians, however, aren't playing his game. They responded with a withering: "The President of the United States made seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false. They did not win the war with these lies, and they will certainly not get anywhere in negotiations either." Iran then promptly closed the Strait back down and attacked two ships (to show they were serious). So the U.S. attacked an Iranian ship and seized it by force. The Iranians responded by seizing a few ships by force in the Strait.

Meanwhile, the negotiations completely fell apart. Tuesday was supposed to be the big deadline for the ceasefire, but after Trump insulted them they refused to even send a delegation to Pakistan to negotiate. Trump had to cancel the American team's travel plans at the last second as well, to avoid the embarrassment of showing up when the other side didn't.

Tellingly, Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely. For all his bluster and sturm und drang, Trump doesn't seem all that big on the idea of restarting the war or escalating it in any way. This is probably the smartest thing he's done during this whole misadventure, since any escalation is probably going to be condemned both worldwide and domestically here at home.

Instead, we're now in a waiting game. Call it a game of economic "chicken." Each side is hoping the other will feel so much pain from the damage to their economy that they'll blink. So far, neither side has.

The damage to the Iranian economy is pretty obvious, but the damage to the American economy is growing. The average price of gasoline had reached a peak and was edging back down below $4 a gallon, but ever since the talks fell apart and the stalemate began it's been heading back upward again (it stands at $4.06 as of this writing). The price of diesel fuel has gone up even more drastically than gasoline, and that's already starting to affect the broader economy. Food prices are going to rise as well, as farmers are being squeezed by high diesel prices and high fertilizer prices. And prices on everything which travels by truck or airplane or ship (which is pretty much everything) will be going up as well, to cover the increased fuel costs.

Even if the war ends tomorrow (spoiler alert: it's not going to), its ripple effect through the American economy is likely to last all through the summer and beyond. Which is already a huge political headache for Trump and his fellow Republicans. More on that in a moment.

Last weekend, Energy Secretary Chris Wright got caught in a Kinsley gaffe (when a politician accidentally reveals the truth), as he admitted that the price of gasoline could stay above $3 a gallon well into next year. This contradicted the rosy-tinted view of the White House that prices would fall "within weeks" of the war's end. Later in the week, both Wright and other cabinet members refused to give any predictions about when the price of gas would fall (or how far). Perhaps this was because they were testifying under oath to Congress, instead of just repeating the Dear Leader's propaganda? Also revealed to Congress this week was the Pentagon's estimate that it could take six months to clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines.

Meanwhile, the war is now costing America a flat billion dollars per day, and our stockpiles of high-tech missiles is getting a lot smaller. So of course, it was time to fire the secretary of the Navy, right? There actually was some good news from the war this week, as Lebanon and Israel agreed to a three-week extension of their own ceasefire, but their ceasefire has been breached by both sides repeatedly, so there's no guarantee it's going to hold.

Today the White House announced that talks would resume in Pakistan over the weekend, but that JD Vance wasn't going to attend, because they're just low-level talks. That doesn't exactly inspire confidence that a deal will be within reach any time soon, does it?

The truly humiliating thing that is possibly ahead for Trump is that any deal the Iranians agree to seems highly likely to closely resemble the deal they struck with Barack Obama -- the deal that Trump personally ripped up during his first term in office. So from him backing out of that agreement through the current war, the end result is probably going to be exactly what would have happened if Trump had just kept to Obama's deal in the first place. Except that the price of gas wouldn't have skyrocketed under that scenario, of course.

Politically, this war has been an absolute disaster for Trump. His poll numbers are sinking lower than they've ever been in his second term, as even his own loyal supporters are turning against him. One poll asked whether the House should impeach Trump and a majority of Americans now support the idea (one pundit described the poll as Trump being in "Nixon resignation territory").

Americans also disapprove of Trump's war in a big way as well. His polling on inflation is even worse -- he is now a stunning 42 points underwater on the issue. And for the first time since 2010 (in the midst of the Great Recession), more Americans trust Democrats to handle the economy than Republicans.

Republicans are getting close to panic mode when they contemplate their chances in the midterm elections this year, and they are right to be scared. Even before Trump's disastrous war it was looking like Democrats were going to see a blue wave in November, but now it is almost guaranteed.

Of course, Republicans had a master plan to win the midterms -- just gerrymander a whole bunch of new safe GOP districts in the red states they control. However, this is now blowing up in their own faces, as blue states continue to fight back. This week, the voters in Virginia approved a new redistricting map that will add four more Democratic districts. This follows California doing the same thing and adding five districts. When you tally up how the two sides are doing, it now looks like Democrats have redrawn more safe districts for their side than Republicans have managed. This could change -- Florida has yet to make a move -- but no matter who winds up on top it's going to be by just a couple of seats, at best. The whole plan spectacularly backfired on the Republicans, and it might even get worse for them. Especially in Texas, they drew their new "safe" Republican districts using voting data from the 2024 election. But the voters have shifted -- most notably, Latino voters. So some of those "safe red" districts might just wind up electing Democrats. Notably, some Republicans are now realizing the whole mid-decade redistricting plan isn't working out and probably should never have even been attempted.

Trump had a third cabinet member resign this week, as the secretary of Labor stepped down under a cloud. Sexual misconduct was alleged not just about her but also about both her husband and her father. With three top Trump administration officials gone now, the new Washington game is trying to pick who will be thrown under the bus next. Will it be Kash Patel? He seems like an obvious choice, after an article appeared in The Atlantic chock-full of horror stories about his incompetence and drunkenness. Patel immediately sued the magazine for $250 million, but Trump doesn't like to see any of his underlings in the headlines in this way, so it'd be understandable if Patel is the next to be defenestrated. Tulsi Gabbard is apparently on thin ice as well, or perhaps the next on the chopping block will be Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick? Your guess is as good as ours -- if we had our way, we'd nominate Pete Hegseth to go next, just on general principles, but who knows what Trump will do?

And we'd like to close today by actually (are you sitting down?) praising Donald Trump for doing something good this week. In fact, Trump actually (gasp!) did two good things this week. The first was to sign an executive order expediting federal reviews of psychedelic drugs (L.S.D., psilocybin or "magic mushrooms," etc.). It has long been known that these drugs can have medicinal value (all the way back to Timothy Leary, in fact), but they have been barred from even being studied, for the most part.

There is speculation that Trump made this move in an attempt to get one of his previous supporters to stop saying bad things about him, though:

At the signing on Saturday, Trump was surrounded by the typical coterie of administration officials, such as Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a longtime proponent of psychedelics. But one guest stood out from the crowd: podcaster Joe Rogan, who buoyed Trump in the 2024 election and has long supported right-wing causes and figures, but also has a long, documented interest in psychedelics.

The initial reporting, from Axios, suggested that the order from Trump was an olive branch to Rogan, who has recently become critical of the administration over the conduct of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, as well as the president's war against Iran. Trump's treatment of Rogan also stands out from his attitude toward other right-wing podcasters, like Candace Owens and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, whom Trump has attacked relentlessly for criticizing his foreign adventurism.

Rogan later revealed on his podcast that he had been texting with the president prior to the event, saying that he brought up the issue to Trump himself.

"The text message came back: 'Sounds great. Do you want FDA approval? Let's do it," Rogan said.

People can do good things for the wrong reason, but we find we simply don't care why Trump made this move. We were further convinced when, later in the week, Trump rescheduled medicinal marijuana, moving it from Schedule I to Schedule III. This only solves half the problem, since recreational marijuana remains Schedule I (even though they are the same substance). The real solution -- the real final end to the War On Weed -- will be to deschedule marijuana and hand control and enforcement over to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, where it so obviously belongs.

Still, this is the biggest step the federal government has taken in the right direction on marijuana since the War On Weed began, over half a century ago. Recreational weed may also be rescheduled to Schedule III later this year, according to Trump.

Again, whatever his reasons, we have to say that (for once) Donald Trump actually did something worthwhile as president (hey, we warned you to sit down!).

 

The most impressive development for Democrats this week was the referendum in Virginia. And although you might expect us to hand the Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week to the state's governor, instead we are awarding it to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

Governor Abigail Spanberger was not out in front of this issue, and that's putting it mildly. She didn't run on redistricting, she ran as a moderate who would reach across the aisle to Republicans. So she only reluctantly supported the redistricting ballot measure, mostly because the Democrats in her legislature essentially forced the issue upon her. But unlike California's Gavin Newsom, she didn't lead the "vote Yes!" effort or personally make it her own in any way.

Hakeem Jeffries, however, seems to have been the driving force behind the referendum:

Tuesday's vote was the culmination of months of lobbying from [Hakeem] Jeffries to counter the mid-decade redistricting push launched by Trump and his allies in Texas. He barnstormed the country, pressing Democratic state legislators to match the GOP blow-for-blow.

Not all of his entreaties were successful, but he found partners in the Virginia state house who were willing to tee up a plan that would turn the Commonwealth's 6-5 Democratic map into a 10-1 advantage. Jeffries backed the effort with $38 million in funding from a leadership-aligned group, House Majority Forward -- the biggest single expenditure in the fight.

"Donald Trump and Republicans launched this gerrymandering war," Jeffries told reporters Wednesday. "And we've made clear as Democrats that we're going to finish it."

Now that his bet has paid off, Jeffries has concrete proof of his political savvy -- and muscle -- as he moves to secure the speaker's gavel in November.

Jeffries has had a problem with some Democrats in Congress who complain that he's not fighting back hard enough against Donald Trump. His cautious nature frustrates Democrats who want to see more fire-breathing out of their leaders. But he seems to have taken a big step towards improving this image with the Virginia redistricting fight. Not only did he champion the cause but he also put up a lot of money to make sure it passed. Talk is cheap, but Jeffries put his campaign cash behind his talk, which turned out to be crucial (the initiative barely passed, with only a three-point margin) especially since the national Republican Party didn't get behind the "No" effort in a similar way.

It has been nothing short of spectacular, seeing Democrats fight back, using the same tactics as Republicans have deployed against them. Instead of being down by eight or more seats (that Republicans have redrawn in red states), Democrats have either pulled even or are as many as two seats out in the lead in this fight. That is truly heartening to see.

Hakeem Jeffries deserves the most credit for the Virginia win this week. He put his money where his mouth was, and by so doing he improves his own chances of becoming speaker after the midterms. Which is why we are awarding this week's Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

[Congratulate House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on his House contact page, to let him know you appreciate his efforts.]

 

This is an easy call, this week. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned her House seat this week, mere minutes before the House Ethics Committee voted on what punishment it was going to recommend for her to the full House. The expectation was that they were going to recommend expelling her from the chamber.

Unlike the two members of Congress forced to resign last week, Cherfilus-McCormick had already been subjected to an Ethics Committee review of her actions. Here's the whole story:

Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, the Florida Democrat charged with embezzling $5 million in federal disaster aid and using it for her campaign, announced her resignation from Congress on Tuesday, just minutes before the House Ethics Committee had been set to vote on whether to recommend that the House expel her.

Ms. Cherfilus-McCormick, 47, was indicted in November on charges of stealing Federal Emergency Management Agency money and funneling some of it to her 2021 congressional campaign. The ethics panel had been investigating the matter for more than two years, reviewing tens of thousands of documents related to accusations that the Republican chairman, Representative Michael Guest of Mississippi, described on Tuesday as "extremely serious and extremely complicated."

The committee, which last month found Ms. Cherfilus-McCormick guilty of 25 violations including campaign finance infractions and false financial disclosures, had been preparing to vote on whether to recommend a sentence of expulsion to the full House. Such a penalty, which requires a two-thirds majority vote to oust a colleague, is an extremely rare occurrence that has happened only six times in the history of the chamber.

Instead, Ms. Cherfilus-McCormick pre-empted the action, issuing a fiery statement that said she was resigning, about 20 minutes before the panel had been set to meet. When the committee convened, her brief official resignation letter was read into the record and the session was abruptly adjourned because the committee no longer had jurisdiction.

Cherfilus-McCormick has not been convicted in a court of law, and professes her innocence. She faces an upcoming trial where she is facing a maximum sentence of 53 years in jail.

But in this case, the Ethics Committee completed their own investigation and found her guilty of House ethics violations. So it wasn't like this case was a rush to judgment (as some argued Eric Swalwell had faced). And this season of purging members isn't over yet, as another Republican (Cory Mills) is also facing a motion to expel him.

Embezzling COVID disaster aid is a serious thing. Money that was supposed to help Americans weather the storm was redirected into a political campaign. That's beyond disappointing, which is why we're handing former Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick a Most Disappointing Democrat Of The Week award as she makes her exit from politics.

[Because she resigned, Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick is now just a private citizen, and it is our blanket policy not to provide contact information for such persons.]

 

Volume 838 (4/24/26)

Most of our talking points deal with the war this week, since Donald Trump's incompetence is becoming more and more obvious for everyone to see. Democrats need to keep his feet to the fire by constantly reminding people how stupid this whole war was (and is), and how it is making life more expensive for everyone.

 

   How pointless was this?

We wrote about this earlier, if anyone's interested.

"In the future, historians will argue not whether Donald Trump's war of choice with Iran was pointless, they will instead argue about how pointless it all was. Is this war just one of the most pointless wars America has ever fought, or is it in fact the most pointless war America has ever fought? Because that's the only thing that is still in question."

 

   No clue

The longer this all drags on, the worse it gets for Trump. So point it out!

"Donald Trump quite obviously has no clue what to do about Iran. He had no clue as to why he started this war, and he definitely is clueless about how to end it. Remember when we were going to help the people of Iran overthrow their government? That's why Trump got interested in attacking Iran, but that is just not going to happen. Trump keeps lying about how the war's going, how the negotiations to end it are going, and what will constitute a victory for the United States. The man simply has no clue what to do, and we're all paying the price for his incompetence."

 

   Every time you fill your tank

This phrase should be used by Democrats from now right up to November.

"You are paying the price for Donald Trump's idiotic war every time you fill up your gas tank. You are paying a premium because Trump is so clueless. And it isn't even going to end there, either. Inflation is going to go back up across the board as the high price of gas, diesel, and fertilizer start to push prices for everything up for the rest of the year. We are all paying a very high price for Trump's war, and you can see it right in front of your eyes every time you fill your tank."

 

   A billion dollars a day

This is another handy phrase to toss around.

"Trump's war is now costing America a flat billion dollars a day. That's stunning. Imagine what this country could be doing with all that money if Trump hadn't started his own Middle East quagmire. Who voted for this? I don't remember Trump promising to spend a billion of your tax dollars each and every day on a pointless war, do you? This insanity has to end -- we simply can't afford it."

 

   Right back where we started from

This is going to become a bigger issue when the parameters of any deal are made public.

"And all for what? What are we going to get out of this war? Right now, it sounds like Trump is going to have to accept pretty much the same deal that Barack Obama got from Iran. You know -- the deal that Trump ripped up in his first term? So this entire exercise in futility is going to end with us right back where we started from. What a pointless waste of lives, money, and time."

 

   Thanks, Thom

We rarely urge Democrats to praise Republicans in our talking points, but this one seemed worthy.

"I'd like to thank Republican Senator Thom Tillis for standing up to Donald Trump and forcing him to back down. Tillis had the courage to say 'no' to Trump -- which is a rare quality indeed among Republicans these days. When Trump sicced the Justice Department on the chair of the Federal Reserve, Tillis told Trump he would block anyone Trump nominated to the Fed. Because his vote on the committee was enough to successfully stop any nominations, today the Justice Department had to back down and call off its witch hunt against Jerome Powell, the current Fed chair. Trump rarely backs down like this, because most Republicans don't have the spinal fortitude to stand up to him. So I'd like to thank Thom Tillis for preserving the neutrality of the Fed by refusing to go along with Trump's partisan weaponization of the Justice Department. I just wish more Republicans had this much courage."

 

   Cry me a river

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had perhaps the best response to Republican complaints about Virginia redistricting their House map this week. She had a snarky answer and a serious answer. Here's her serious answer:

Listen, Democrats have attempted and asked Republicans for 10 years to ban partisan gerrymandering. And for 10 years, Republicans have said no. Republicans have fought for partisan gerrymanders across the United States of America, and these are the rules that they have set. They have been accustomed to a Democratic Party that rolls over, doesn't fight, and takes everything sitting down. Now the Republican Party doesn't like the fact that they are fighting against someone who actually will stand up for the American people.

We have the bill right here to end this all today. But they don't want to because they like pursuing and continuing to enact an unfair electoral landscape. And so we have an obligation to defend ourselves.

That is all put very well. But it was her initial response that caught our eye, and is our final talking point today. Because A.O.C. started with a taunt to Republicans:

Wah, wah, wah!

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

Cross-posted at: Democratic Underground