I had intended to write a column today to take an overview of all the close races for Senate seats. Every so often, I like to take a look at what the chances are for both parties to make gains in November (or, this year, to see whether the Republicans are going to gain a majority, realistically). Instead, after seeing the recent news from the New York Times, what is now called for is kissing goodbye any chances that the Montana Senate seat up for grabs will stay Democratic. To be blunt: there is now exactly zero chance of that happening, and we should all chalk up one guaranteed Republican gain in the Senate. The revelations that John Walsh plagiarized a major paper in college have now completely torpedoed his chances for retaining the seat. To be fair, there was little chance that Walsh was going to win in any case. But the difference between "little chance" and "no chance" can be measured in hope. There is now no hope for Democrats in Montana, this year.

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President Obama faces a dilemma on immigration reform, and it goes beyond the current problem of children at the border. If he sticks to his announced timetable, Obama will act in some way on immigration reform in the next month or so. The Republican House has already signaled that it not only won't vote on the bipartisan plan passed by the Senate last year, but also that it won't hold any votes on immigration reform at all in the foreseeable future (before the midterm election, in other words). This means if anything is going to happen, Obama will have to make it happen on his own. Obama's real dilemma is that no matter what he does, it's not going to satisfy everyone. In fact, it may not satisfy much of anyone. But it is sure to annoy and even enrage certain groups.

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The biggest political event of the week (for Democrats, at any rate) was Nancy Pelosi and the House Democrats rolling out a new campaign agenda -- the "Middle Class Jumpstart" -- in the tradition of Newt Gingrich's "Contract With America." But we'll have much more on this later, as we're turning over the whole talking points portion of the program to this rollout.

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Speaker of the House John Boehner now seems pretty committed to his effort to bring a lawsuit against President Obama. This is ridiculous on a number of different levels, and a majority of the American people already see it as nothing more than a political stunt (which is good to hear, since that is exactly what it is). If Boehner keeps to the timetable he's set out, this sentiment may even grow right before the midterm election. The Republicans believe that suing Obama will excite and turn out their base voters, and they're betting that this benefit will be larger than any political blowback (which would excite and turn out Democrats and Independents to the polls to vote against Republicans). Whether they're right in this political calculation or not remains to be seen. But what is undeniable is that, so far, this lawsuit is nothing short of laughable.

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Speaker of the House John Boehner seems to be in need of a refresher course in how legislation is supposed to happen in the American system of government. Over the course of the past year, Boehner has gone from confidently touting his and his fellow House Republicans' upcoming leadership on the issue of immigration (and border security, in specific), to now doing nothing more than groveling for President Obama to solve the problem using his executive authority -- which is an ironic enough stance for a Republican to take, these days. The House is obviously incapable of action, Boehner is now all but admitting. That's a pretty stunning turnaround, politically.

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Plenty of stuff happened in the past two weeks in the political world, but we'll get to all of that in a minute, because first we'd like to highlight (pun intended, of course) what is being billed as "the first marijuana television commercial." It's not on the air yet, but Canadian company Crop King Seeds has released this first look at their ad (they do admit that they'll likely have to edit out one bit of profanity before the ad airs). Without further ado, here is their ad (used with full permission, as they would really like the ad to go viral):

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Not so very long ago, Republican candidates foresaw a single-issue campaign for the 2014 midterms. The race would be won, they assured themselves, on stoking the public's seething hatred of Obamacare. Republicans didn't need to do anything else this year (something House Republicans excel at: doing nothing), and in fact they didn't want to hold votes on any other contentious issue (like immigration reform), since all that would do is distract people away from the single campaign issue of Obamacare.

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In all the fulminating going on about the children in the current border "crisis," there is one problem I have yet to hear addressed, by either side in the debate. Mostly, I suspect, because it would cost a lot of money to fix. Americans who are unfamiliar with the problems immigrants face and who have never personally had to deal with an immigrant can be excused for not even being aware this problem exists. Conjuring up gauzy images of Ellis Island, such Americans wonder: "Why don't the immigrants follow the law and come in legally?" One of the big answers to that question is the monumental backlog they face. A backlog it would take a lot of political effort -- and a whole lot of money -- to fix.

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Believe it or not, this is the current obsession of the inside-the-Beltway chattering classes. Of course, the statement can be read in more than one way, can't it? The literal interpretation is the main one being obsessed over -- the relative wealth of Hillary Clinton, and how it relates to her possible run for the presidency. This is inane on a number of levels, to be sure. But there's also a second reading, which might be better expressed by doubling the first word: "Poor, poor Hillary Clinton." Expressing pity for Clinton for one reason or another (the media making inane attacks, the fact that she has to put up with such nonsense, or maybe the inaccurate storyline "Clinton's book tour goes disastrously wrong!") is a secondary topic of this conversation, mostly put forth by her defenders. Neither interpretation makes much sense, though, which is why I went with the mocking use of a question mark: "Poor Hillary?" -- as in: "Are you people kidding me?"

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President Barack Obama's poll numbers took a serious downturn in June, which essentially wiped out the progress he's made in the public's opinion since the beginning of the year. There's no real way to sugarcoat it: Obama had a bad month last month. About the only positive thing that can be said is that it wasn't his worst month ever -- but that's not really saying much, is it?

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