A surprise announcement shook up the Democratic primary for an open Senate seat in Michigan over the holiday weekend, as Mallory McMorrow announced she was suspending her campaign. This leaves the race as a two-person contest, which will pit a favorite of the Democratic Party establishment against an upstart progressive.

The stakes are high, because before Democrats can even consider flipping enough Senate seats to regain control of the chamber in this year's midterms, they first must hold onto the seats they already have. Michigan is key to that effort, being one of a few states where Republicans think they may have a chance of flipping a Democratic seat. The seat is currently held by Senator Gary Peters, who is not running for re-election.

McMorrow is a state senator who vaulted into national prominence after giving a heartfelt speech back in 2022 defending herself from a Republican who had, in a fundraising email, accused her of "grooming and sexualizing children."

It was a powerful speech, as short as it was. Here is the closing portion of her speech, because even though McMorrow is dropping out of the Senate race she still deserves credit for taking her stand when she did:

So who am I? I am a straight, White, Christian, married suburban mom. Who knows that the very notion that learning about slavery or redlining or systemic racism somehow means that children are being taught to feel bad or hate themselves because they are White is absolute nonsense.

No child alive today is responsible for slavery. No one in this room is responsible for slavery. But each and every single one of us bears responsibility for writing the next chapter of history. Each and every single one of us decides what happens next and how we respond to history and the world around us.

We are not responsible for the past. We also cannot change the past. We can't pretend that it didn't happen, or deny people their very right to exist.

I am a straight, White, Christian, married suburban mom. I want my daughter to know that she is loved, supported, and seen for whoever she becomes. I want her to be curious, empathetic, and kind.

People who are different are not the reason that our roads are in bad shape after decades of disinvestment, or that healthcare costs are too high, or that teachers are leaving the profession. I want every child in this state to feel seen, heard, and supported -- not marginalized and targeted because they are not straight, White, and Christian.

We can not let hateful people tell you otherwise to scapegoat and deflect from the fact that they are not doing anything to fix the real issues that impact people's lives. And I know that hate will only win if people like me stand by and let it happen.

So I want to be very clear right now -- call me whatever you want. I hope you brought in a few dollars. I hope it made you sleep good last night. I know who I am. I know what faith and service means and what it calls for in this moment.

We will not late hate win.

McMorrow had positioned herself in the Senate primary race as a sort of compromise candidate, charting a liberal path between the establishment-backed Haley Stevens and the progressive, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed. Last month, in a CNN interview, McMorrow gave her take on the state of the race: "We are being presented right now with what I believe is a false binary choice" between "the status quo in Haley Stevens" and "a candidate who has never won a campaign before."

However, she lost support in the polls after criticizing El-Sayed for appearing with Hasan Piker, who is a left-wing influencer with a history of defending Hamas and calling Israel "an apartheid state." Michigan has a large population of Muslim voters who are not happy with the Democratic Party's stance on Israel -- which may even have cost Kamala Harris the state in 2024 (since she refused to change her stance from Joe Biden's support for Israel). El-Sayed has been endorsed by Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Stevens, on the other hand, is being heavily supported by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. Together with other groups, they have spent over $30 million so far on ads promoting Stevens and attacking El-Sayed. But as of now, El-Sayed is leading in the polls, with an average of 39 percent to 29 percent for Stevens.

McMorrow's support in recent polling had fallen to around 12 or 13 percent. So the big question now is where her supporters will migrate -- because it could prove to be the deciding factor in the race. McMorrow is much more progressive than Stevens, but her supporters may be leery of backing El-Sayed because of fears that he might lose the general election in November.

This is all part of the struggle within the Democratic Party right now between progressives and the establishment. Both sides have their argument to make. The establishment party candidates insist that electability is the biggest factor to concentrate on, and that not scaring crossover or suburban or moderate voters is the most important thing to do. Progressives, however, point to the poor track record of such thinking in the recent past, and instead insist that the most important factor is excitement -- building enthusiasm among voters by taking strong (and anti-corporate) stances to drive up the turnout on Election Day.

Neither argument is universal, it bears mentioning. In some states or districts, a safe, middle-of-the-road Democrat might have a better chance of winning than a fire-breathing Democratic Socialist. In other places, the reverse is true. The big question is which will work the best in Michigan right now -- where the Republican candidate in this race (Mike Rogers) came within a few points of winning a Senate race in 2024.

With McMorrow out, the Michigan Democratic primary will be a clear contest between an establishment candidate and a progressive. There won't be a third candidate siphoning votes away from either one of them. McMorrow did not endorse either of the other two in her announcement that she was suspending her campaign, and both are already making bids to convince McMorrow's supporters to come over to their side.

They've both got roughly a month to make this argument (the Michigan primary will be on August 4th). It will be interesting to watch the next few polls out of Michigan, as the McMorrow voters start to make up their minds. If enough of them flock to either candidate, they could easily be the deciding factor in the race. McMorrow, by dropping out, has preserved her future within the Democratic Party, since nobody can now accuse her of being any kind of "spoiler" in a three-way race. She'll probably try for higher office again in the future, but for now the Michigan Senate race is down to two main contenders on the Democratic side.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant