It's pretty easy to see who won Donald Trump's war of choice with Iran -- and who lost. All you have to do is look at the deal both sides just signed, which is obviously heavily tilted in Iran's favor. In fact, it is pretty much impossible to claim otherwise -- to claim that somehow the U.S. won a resounding victory and forced a defeated foe to the bargaining table, where the U.S. would dictate terms of the surrender. In fact, it looks a lot more like exactly the opposite happened.

Donald Trump showed the world how a superpower can quickly lose a war even against a foe that isn't even close to superpower status. In doing so, the world is continuing to learn a very basic lesson: war has changed. The way wars are fought has drastically shifted. War is not static -- the tactics and strategies for waging wars is always changing, and never more than now with new technologies changing the battlefield.

The heart of Trump's problem was that he got conned at the start of the war. There's really no other way to put it. Benjamin Netanyahu met with Trump and painted a very rosy picture of what would happen. They'd bomb Iran's leadership and destroy it, the Iranian people would rise up and overthrow the regime, and Iran wouldn't retaliate much at all -- and they certainly would never actually close the Strait of Hormuz or anything. The whole war would be over very quickly -- a matter of days, or at the most, a few weeks. Trump bought into this fantasy hook, line, and sinker, with no real "Plan B" if things didn't follow this rosy prediction.

Once the war began, the U.S. and all their allies in the region began learning the lesson that both Ukraine and Russia have learned already. Trump and Pete Hegseth thought that American military power was so awesome and overpowering that we simply couldn't be defeated in any way. But Iran largely did, with much cheaper drones and ballistic missiles.

Some simple math shows why. Our own intelligence services estimate that Iran still has 70 percent of their ballistic missiles. They still have thousands of drones, too. Meanwhile, America's stockpiles of interceptor missiles are at dangerously low levels now -- with some of these systems only at about 50 percent of what we had before the war. So Iran launched 30 percent of its arsenal (somewhat less, actually, since the U.S. did take out many of their missiles on the ground) while the U.S. burned through half of its stockpiles of interceptor missiles defending against Iranian attacks.

No wonder Trump eagerly accepted a ceasefire when one was on the table. Trump's hands were tied, because if the exchanges of missiles and drones and interceptors continued much longer, we would soon run dangerously low on our own stockpiles -- and those missiles have to serve as a deterrent for other countries too. We can't just use them all up against Iran, because then that would leave us wide open if China or Russia decided the time was right to launch their own wars of aggression. And interceptor missiles can't be quickly cranked out on an assembly line the way America did in World War II (with battleships, aircraft carriers, fighters, bombers, and all the rest). It will take years for us to rebuild our interceptor stockpiles back to where they were on the day before we attacked Iran.

The math, as I said, is stark. Sooner or later, America would either completely run out of interceptor missiles or would be forced to decide not to use any more against Iran (so we'd still have some as a deterrent to other countries). Iran, at this point, could attack at will and targets would be left undefended. Which is why everyone stopped believing Trump's blustery threats of more bombing weeks ago.

Trump's hands were also tied because he didn't dare send in "boots on the ground" -- American troops -- to attempt a ground invasion of Iran. The American public was not behind this war from the start, and the outcry if we did invade would have been deafening. The death toll for American soldiers would have climbed a lot higher than 13, and few Americans would think it was worth it. This was also pretty obvious many weeks ago, and it undercut Trump's threats to do so (because nobody, including Iran, believed he would actually take that step).

So we got a ceasefire and America was shown to be a paper tiger. We couldn't keep burning through multimillion-dollar interceptors to destroy drones that only cost $30,000 or so, and we were just not going to escalate and turn the war into a boots-on-the-ground invasion. Iran knew all of this.

Trump, meanwhile, got more and more worried about the price of gasoline Americans were being forced to pay. The longer the prices stayed high, the worse the chances Republicans would have in the midterm elections. This put enormous pressure on Trump to cut a deal -- any deal -- as soon as possible. The Iranians knew this, too.

To use one of Trump's favorite metaphors, Iran held all the cards. Because they did -- because they had much more powerful leverage than we did -- they were able to dictate the terms of the Memorandum Of Understanding. This document is breathtaking in its scope. It is quite possibly the worst war-ending document America has ever signed. Iran gets pretty much everything they wanted -- some of it up front, merely for signing the M.O.U. -- while America gets nothing it wanted except for a return to the status quo antebellum in the Strait of Hormuz. But even that is pretty pathetic, since Iran only pledged to allow shipping through the Strait toll-free for 60 days. After that point, they clearly intend to start charging fees or tolls to every ship passing through.

As for the nuclear issue, the only thing Iran really promised is: "We'll talk about it." They even snuck in a clause that rubs Trump's nose in the fact that this is a far weaker deal than the one Obama negotiated, since Iran is only committing to un-enriching the uranium they possess (watering down the purity, in effect), whereas in Obama's deal they had to ship 97 percent of their uranium to Russia.

Comparing Obama's deal to the M.O.U. is absolutely laughable. Maybe Trump will be able to come to some sort of deal (in the 60-day period) that might be comparable to Obama's deal, but that's a very wide open question. Even the "60 days" is an open question, since Iran knows full well that Trump's hands will be completely tied until at least the first week in November, when the midterm elections take place. Iran is masterful in the tactic of delay, which is ironically fitting because Trump is also quite good at using endless delays to make problems go away. This time, though, Iran's going to use it against him, and there's nothing really he can do about it in the meantime.

Nothing shows how Iran has the upper hand more than what just happened today. Initially, today was supposed to have a ceremonial signing ceremony for the M.O.U., with Iranian leaders and Vice President JD Vance all in attendance. But then the Iranians said they weren't going to hold such a ceremony, because it was unnecessary (the document was "electronically signed" by both sides earlier in the week). So then today's meeting morphed into the opening round of the 60-day negotiation period, where the two sides would meet and begin talks. Except Israel and Hezbollah kept launching attacks on each other, which caused the Iranians to completely pull out of today's planned meeting.

This more than anything shows that they hold all the cards. They are the ones calling the tune here, not Trump or the U.S. Since Israel and Hezbollah are quite likely to continue attacking each other (no matter what sort of ceasefire agreements they announce), this could completely undercut any negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. And we're not in control of this dynamic, since Netanyahu's not going to dance to Trump's tune anymore. If we can't control Israel then the entire deal could just completely fall apart. And the bigger the wedge gets between Israel and the U.S., the more Iran is just going to sit back and laugh and laugh.

So, yeah, it is pretty easy to see who won this war and who lost it. The New York Times ran an editorial this week that made this point crystal-clear: "President Trump Lost This War."

The rest of the world, meanwhile, is watching:

In the end, the United States did not bring about the "unconditional surrender" that Mr. Trump demanded from Iran a week into the war, but rather a conditions-based, fragile truce. Along the way, the conflict exposed fundamental shortcomings in the U.S. military-industrial base, a vulnerability that analysts inside and outside the administration worry will embolden adversaries to act more aggressively. The unresolved issue of Iran's near bomb-grade uranium, which the regime still controls, leaves American national security interests even further exposed.

. . .

Iran's successful defiance has also raised new questions about the abilities of the U.S. military to sustain a prolonged fight. Yes, the wonder weapons that American industry cranks out, like cruise missiles and air-defense interceptors, have proven impressive on the battlefield. But the war has exposed the underlying weaknesses of depending on weaponry that's extremely expensive and time-consuming to deliver. During an April 30 congressional hearing, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth estimated it could take "months and years" to replenish the stocks that had been used in the war.

For Beijing and Moscow, this evidence of America's military industrial weakness may catalyze decisions to move forward on their own strategic interests. Becca Wasser, a lead defense analyst with Bloomberg Economics, said the sheer amount of munitions used -- particularly long-range missiles -- has weakened U.S. military readiness and left the nation underprepared to deter and defend against, if needed, a more advanced adversary like Beijing. "China is definitely looking at U.S. munitions depth and the coming global crunch for air defense interceptors," she said. "It may not be a today problem, but it's definitely a tomorrow problem."

Trump's initial war goals are now in tatters. He started off the whole thing by prophesying regime change -- the Iranian people would rise up and overthrow their government. We have now signed an agreement that promises we won't even make the attempt to do this in the future, while the same Islamic regime remains in control of Iran. Trump's other goals also remain unmet. Rather than swearing to destroy all of Iran's missiles (and get them to agree not to build any more of them), Trump is now defending Iran's need for missiles. Here was his extraordinary statement on the matter:

They [the Iranians] have to have some [ballistic missiles], because other people have some. Am I going to let Saudi Arabia have missiles, but [Iran] can't have them?... It doesn't work that way. Missiles aren't the problem. Missiles, they hurt a little location, but they don't blow up the planet.

Left completely unspoken is a big goal that Israel had at the start of the war: end forever Iran's ability to fund and arm terrorist groups throughout the region (such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis). That's no longer even on the table for discussion, apparently. The Iranians even added a clause to one of the paragraphs in the M.O.U. specifying that money that they receive can be used on anything -- even funding their proxies, if they so choose.

The nuclear issue is the only one of Trump's war goals that is left, and all the Iranians have promised on this front is to enter into further negotiations. Their statement that they wouldn't develop or acquire nuclear weapons was actually weaker in the M.O.U. than the statement that was included in Obama's deal with them.

This entire war was pretty much a fiasco from start to finish. Trump had no idea what he was doing, he was unprepared for the most obvious moves Iran could have made, he was outgunned by cheap drones (which forced the U.S. to actually abandon military bases in the region), he was unwilling to use U.S. troops, and the might of the U.S. military couldn't keep the Strait open. Trump was left begging the Iranians for a deal -- any deal -- and now that the world has seen what is in it, it's obvious that Iran won all sorts of concessions while the only thing we achieved was to get the Strait back to where it was before the war began. This could go down in history as the stupidest war America ever fought (and that's really saying something).

Trump is losing support back here at home, which shouldn't come as much of a shock. His numbers are down among blue-collar White voters, and they're sinking even faster among rural voters:

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll found that Trump's approval rating among his base rural voters is now at 50%, down from 60% in February, with a disapproval rating of 48%, up from 34%. That voting bloc that went for Trump by 40 points in the 2024 election, but are now feeling the pinch of tariffs, high gas prices and the soaring cost of living in general. They're not too happy about the Iran war either, whether there's a "deal" or not.

A new Fox News poll has similar findings. Trump's approval rating among his white rural base is now all the way down to 44%, a startling 33 points lower than at the beginning of his term. Only 16% of respondents said their financial situation had improved in the last two years, while 49% said they are worse off. Almost two-thirds of those polled, or 64%, said the cost of living is the most important economic problem they face, and fewer than one-third (30%) said they thought Trump was handling the issue. And there wasn't much faith that he's likely to make things better: While 49% said Trump's policies will hurt the country in the long run, only 39% said they were more likely to help. Maybe these folks should have paid more attention when he fatuously declared that he could solve all problems with tariffs and we'd see "growth" on the first day.

Newsweek created a map this week to show Trump's approval levels in all 50 states (for his birthday). It's pretty stark -- Trump is only above water in polling in 14 states (with one additional one tied), and in three out of those 14 Trump is only up by two percentage points or less.

Here's some good news (to end on today): While Trump's numbers continue to go down, Democrats have the wind at their backs. Heading into the midterm campaign season, the Senate map is looking extraordinarily good for them:

Suddenly, Trump's extreme unpopularity, coupled with generally strong Democratic recruitment, means that Republicans are the ones with a hill to climb.

Right now, polls show Democrats leading or statistically tied in all of the [Senate] seats they need to retain. They also lead or are statistically tied in six GOP-held states: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. And there could be one more to add to that list: A Democratic polling firm in May showed the expected Democratic nominee in Florida, retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, ahead of appointed senator Ashley Moody as well.

And Democrats only need to win four of those seats to regain control of the Senate in November.

 

We have to start with an Honorable Mention award this week. Janeese Lewis George, a Democratic Socialist, won her primary in Washington D.C. this week, which almost guarantees that she will become the city's next mayor. This continues a string of victories for Democratic Socialist mayors in cities across the country, which is a heartening thing to see indeed.

But this week's Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week was former president Barack Obama, who held a concert to celebrate the opening of his presidential library in Chicago.

The library itself -- and its very people-friendly grounds -- are impressive in their own right. But the best thing about it was the list of people who showed up to help Obama celebrate. All of America's living former presidents (including George W. Bush) showed up. Donald Trump didn't, but then he wasn't invited.

But the thing that has to be getting under Trump's skin is while he had to cancel a planned concert later this month in D.C. because all the artists involved pulled out when they realized it would be no more than a political rally for Trump, Obama had an all-star lineup at his library opening.

Here's the lineup from the concert: Stevie Wonder, Bruce Springsteen, Christina Aguilera, Bono and The Edge from U2, Eddie Vedder, John Legend, Jennifer Hudson, The Roots, Marc Anthony, and Tems.

None of whom would ever agree to perform at any event Trump held. Trump's got to make do with Vanilla Ice and Kid Rock, while Obama parties with some real music legends.

That lineup alone was worth this week's Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week, as was the newly-opened Obama presidential library. Remember when America was proud of the man who led the country? Good times....

[Congratulate President Barack Obama via his new library's official contact page, to let him know you appreciate his efforts.]

 

Happily, it was one of those rare weeks when we found we were not disappointed by any prominent Democrat all week long. It's no surprise, really, since all Democrats had to do this week was stand back and watch Trump get humiliated on the world stage. Republicans were doing a fine job of ripping into Trump's pathetic deal with Iran, so Democrats barely even had to join in the chorus.

So we're putting the Most Disappointing Democrat Of The Week award back on the shelf for another week.

 

Volume 846 (6/19/26)

The first of this week's crop of talking points is all about the deal -- and what a bad deal it truly is. Then at the end there are a few random things tossed in for good measure. Enjoy!

 

   That's a laugh...

A short and sweet commentary that needs no further explanation. Democrats should use this whenever the Iran deal is being discussed.

"So Trump was supposed to be Mister 'Art Of The Deal'? Yeah, that's a laugh...."

 

   Frame the question right

This one's pretty obvious too.

"The real question with the Memorandum Of Understanding isn't: 'What did America get out of the deal?' but instead: 'What didn't Iran get?' We didn't get anything we didn't already have when the war started, but the Iranians are going to get all the sanctions against them dropped, the ability to sell oil freely on the world market, access to Western banks, tens of billions of dollars unfrozen and returned to them, hundreds of billions of dollars in investment money, and they'll probably even wind up charging tolls to use the Strait of Hormuz. Iran got pretty much everything it wanted, while the U.S. got diddly-squat."

 

   Americans paid billions

Always remind people of the costs versus the benefits.

"American consumers have been forced to pay billions of dollars more for their gasoline, and for what? What exactly did all this sacrifice accomplish? We're still paying high prices not only for filling the car up but for groceries and airfare and shipping and everything else as inflation heads upwards. And for what, exactly? The real losers of this war were American families who had to foot the bill in so many different ways."

 

   How much?

Another short and sweet one that needs to be asked of any random Republican.

"Excuse me, but how much money is Iran going to get out of this deal? How many billions of dollars? How many hundreds of billions of dollars? Are you kidding me?"

 

   Trump's three-billion-dime lie

Speaking of money going down a hole....

"Donald Trump has been lying and lying and lying about the costs of his ballroom project. And he's also been lying about who is going to pay for it, too. First it was supposed to be $200 million, then $300 million, then $400 million, and now the price has been hiked up to a whopping $600 million. But that's not the worst part -- the worst part is that after lying over and over again that the taxpayers wouldn't be paying 'one thin dime' to fund the project, it turns out that over half the costs -- that's three billion dimes, folks -- will be paid for out of our taxes. It should come as no surprise that Trump's been lying about all of this from the very start -- the Secret Service even paid millions just to tear down the old East Wing. By the time Trump finishes the job -- if he ever does -- the price tag will no doubt have gone way up and the taxpayers will be on the hook for most of it."

 

   Stop with the petulance!

Our toddler-in-chief strikes again.

"Last weekend, due to a court order, Donald Trump's name was finally removed from the Kennedy Center's outer wall. But Trump apparently threw a temper tantrum at this judicial rebuke and so even though a crowd of people had gathered and patiently waited until the middle of the night to watch, after the workers built a scaffold to remove the letters they put up a giant tarp to hide it all from public view. And then they just left the tarp up. I'd bet that they're going to leave that tarp up until after all the July 4th celebrations take place in D.C., all because Trump's ego is so fragile that he can't bear to see the rightful name restored to honor once again. I call on Trump to stop with the petulance! Let us see the Kennedy Center's proud name once again! The public deserves it!"

 

   Pond scum

And you just know we saved the best for last....

"Donald Trump wasted a bunch more taxpayer money painting the bottom of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool blue, in time for July 4th. But as with just about everything Trump touches, it has now turned into a fiasco. Painting the bottom of the Reflecting Pool dark blue meant the water would get hotter, which has caused a gigantic algae bloom to turn the waters puke green. And now -- mere days after they filled it back up -- the new paint is peeling off the bottom in huge sheets. So now all the Independence Day tourists will get a closeup look at Trump's sheer incompetence. He promised to make it beautiful and instead we got a huge pool filled with pond scum. That's about par for Trump's course, really."

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

Cross-posted at: Democratic Underground