The text of the "Memorandum Of Understanding" between the U.S. and Iran was finally made public today, and it's pretty easy to see why Donald Trump wanted to keep the whole thing under wraps for as long as possible. The deal is incredibly tilted towards Iran's objectives, while America's objectives are barely mentioned in passing. The inescapable conclusion is that Trump got played. Trump was the one who wound up crying "Uncle," not the other way around.

What is made crystal clear, both from the document itself and Trump's comments on it today, is that he was backed into a corner by economic pressure and needed to announce a deal much more than Iran was pressured to reach any deal. This gave them the upper hand. The high gas prices in America were increasingly becoming a huge political problem for Trump and the oil companies were warning that things were about to get a whole lot worse in the next month or two. So Trump was forced to cave.

And cave he did. There's no other way to put it. Trump got none of his stated objectives for starting the war in the first place -- most of them aren't even mentioned in the M.O.U. document. Iran, meanwhile, didn't just get what they wanted, they will actually emerge from this deal (and a more-permanent one later) in a much stronger position than they were before the war even started.

Parsing the text of the deal makes all of this painfully obvious. The first paragraph seems almost destined to become a big possible reason for the failure of the entire effort. See if you can spot the built-in trap:

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war by signing this M.O.U. declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain [from] the threat or use of force against each other and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.

You will note that Lebanon gets mentioned three times, while nowhere in the entire M.O.U. will you find the word "Israel." This assumes that Israel is nothing more than an American client state, and that any military orders will come from Washington, not from the Israelis themselves. Which is pretty ridiculous. Benjamin Netanyahu will do whatever he thinks is right, even if it annoys Donald Trump and Iran. And Israel is already denouncing this deal in a big way. Israel is not a party to the deal, but it will have the leverage to destroy the deal at any time (by ramping up attacks on Lebanon). This could achieve a huge Iranian objective, if it winds up putting any distance between Israel and America. If Trump and Netanyahu start squabbling, Iran is going to be very happy (to put this another way), and this paragraph almost seems designed to set that situation up.

The deal then goes on to state that neither Iran nor America will interfere in "each other's internal affairs," and that a final deal will be negotiated in the next 60 days. This is going to leave Trump even weaker at the negotiating table, because he is going to desperately want to cut a final deal with Iran before the midterms (60 days from now is the middle of August). If that time period expires and there is no deal, what is Trump going to do? Restart the war? That would send gas prices through the roof again with less than three months before the midterm elections. This will give Iran all kinds of leverage and it will completely defang all of Trump's bluster about bombing them if they don't cut a deal in 60 days.

Then the deal addresses the big issues. The U.S. "will begin the removal of its naval blockade... and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days." The next paragraph lays out what will happen in the Strait of Hormuz:

Upon the signing of this M.O.U., the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran is only committing to allow ships to pass through the Strait "with no charge" for the first 60 days. They obviously have plans to charge fees or tolls after that period, and share the revenue with Oman (who sits on the other side of the Strait). This is a "to be decided later" thing, and the U.S. will assumably forcefully argue against it happening, but what's interesting is that it is an Iranian objective laid out within the M.O.U.'s text. And it's not the only one.

The next paragraph contains another Iranian objective, and it's a doozy:

The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least U.S.D. 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

Remember all the political hay Trump and all the other Republicans made over Barack Obama sending $1.7 billion to Iran? Well, that's about to be dwarfed in a big way. And that's not even the only economic concession in the deal. Skipping ahead a bit, there are three other paragraphs which address the subject, all of which lay out Iran's objectives in the negotiations:

The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, I.A.E.A. Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

. . .

The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., and until the termination of sanctions, U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this M.O.U. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

Iran will immediately be allowed to freely sell its oil on the world market again. And use the world's banking system to facilitate the transactions. And a further $24 billion of Iranian assets will be unfrozen and returned to Iran, while all sanctions against Iran will be dropped. Obama's $1.7 billion is looking like some mighty small potatoes now, isn't it?

But let's go back to the paragraph I skipped over -- the one where the sole U.S. war objective in all of this is addressed:

The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled, enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in Paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the I.A.E.A. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran's nuclear needs, based on the statutory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned, and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiation in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

In other words: "We'll talk about it." That's it. That's all Trump got for his war of choice. "We'll talk about it." Trump will doubtlessly claim that the first sentence is some radical new concession that he has forced the Iranians into making which will change things forever in the Middle East. It's not. In fact, it is not even as strongly-worded as what Iran agreed to in the deal they cut with Barack Obama, which stated: "Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons." Iran has agreed to similarly-worded promises for a half a century now -- it is nothing new at all. And everything else is lumped into the: "We'll talk about it" category.

While the deal does a pretty good job of laying out the laundry list of Iranian objectives, it is completely silent on the stated American objectives for this war, other than that "We'll talk about it" promise on the nuclear issue. Regime change in Iran is not only not mentioned but expressly forbidden (by the promise that neither side will interfere in each other's "internal affairs"). There isn't a single word about missiles or drones in the entire document. Also completely absent is any mention of Iran's support for proxies in the region (such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis). These aren't even brought up as aspirational subjects for the 60-day negotiating phase, which means they won't even be on the table for discussion.

This all adds up to the inescapable conclusion: Trump got played. America lost this war. Iran is going to gain far more than the U.S., no matter how things play out. And we're going to wind up in a worse place than the world was in before Trump ripped up Obama's deal with Iran during his first term in office.

Early on, Trump demanded "unconditional surrender" from Iran as his chief objective in the war. But in the end, it was Trump who cried "Uncle," not Iran. So much for Mr. Art Of The Deal, eh?

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant