We have now entered the sprint phase of the 2026 midterm election season, with fewer than 100 days left on the calendar until Election Day. While nothing is guaranteed, up until now it has seemed that the Democratic Party has had the wind at its back, heading into the crucial part of the campaign. But there were worrisome reports in the media for both parties lately, so I thought it'd was high time we take a closer look at the state of things.

Let's start with the bad news for the Democrats. A recent story in the New York Times paints a worrisome picture indeed of the national party headquarters. The headline called it the "Troubled, Broke Democratic Party," and the teaser subhead warns that "every week brings paranoia, worries about money and, on occasion, emotional eruptions." That's not exactly confidence-building, obviously.

The story centers on the party's chairman, Ken Martin. He is supposed to lead the Democratic National Committee until 2029, but it seems he's more than a little worried that he'll be ousted long before then (hence the "paranoia" the story references). Putting aside an incident where he reportedly "threw his phone at the desk of a junior aide while upbraiding" them, the main defect in Martin's leadership skills is the stunning fact that the party -- with a little over three months before a big election -- is deep in debt. As the story points out:

But the Democratic Party and its allies are far behind Republicans when it comes to money. Mr. [Donald] Trump controls a $400 million super PAC, and the Republican National Committee is sitting on nearly $130 million. Mr. [Ken] Martin's D.N.C. is $2 million in debt.

The D.N.C. chair is supposed to be the public face of the party, the party's fundraiser-in-chief, and the main political strategist responsible for steering the party towards election victories. Martin seems to be falling down on at least two of those jobs. So far, his biggest splash in the media was the cringeworthy autopsy of the 2024 election, which was an absolute fiasco from start to finish. The document eventually produced was woefully inadequate and incomplete, and it failed to even address some of the bedrock problems Democrats had in their election loss to Trump. Martin entered his chairmanship promising to publicly release this document, then he tried to bury it away before being forced to release the incomplete draft, which was widely panned. Martin has all but disappeared from the airwaves ever since.

He's also falling down on the money-raising front, quite obviously. The D.N.C. is now trying to rely on accounting gimmicks to pay their bills and their debts, instead of distributing millions of dollars in campaign contributions to Democratic candidates for the House, the Senate, and races for state offices.

This doesn't mean all Democratic candidates are struggling for cash, it is worth mentioning. The fundraising landscape has changed dramatically over the past few decades, which has made it a lot easier for individual candidates to directly raise large sums of money (from both big donors and small) nationwide without relying on the central party's committee. State Democratic Party operations also raise money for candidates. But the lack of a well-stocked national campaign chest of donations could hurt Democrats in any number of races this November.

No wonder Martin is paranoid. His record now consists of the autopsy fiasco and a complete failure on the fundraising front. That's enough for the party to consider perhaps putting someone else in charge -- although this likely won't happen until after the midterms (because of a reluctance to change horses midstream, so close to an election).

Democrats also aren't polling tremendously well. They're up in the polls, but perhaps not up far enough. Pollsters regularly ask a generic question to possible voters, about whether they would vote for an unnamed Democrat or Republican if the election were held tomorrow. Democrats have maintained an edge on this question all year, but two recent prominent polls put this edge at only three points. Election experts say that Democrats will need at least a three or four point lead to regain control of the House of Representatives, so three points is only a marginal lead at best. Other polls have put this number higher (as high as a 10-point lead), so perhaps this was just a polling blip. But the two polls are causing some nervousness among Democrats at the moment.

However, there is bad news for Republicans as well, and it might prove to be the deciding factor in November. The Washington Post ran a recent article about the "scary lack of enthusiasm" among Republican voters that must be making Republicans nervous too right now. Here's how this article opens:

Republican pollsters and political groups are raising the alarm that their party faces a listless and demotivated base ahead of November's midterm elections.

A raft of discouraging data from polling, door knocking and focus groups is unsettling Republicans as their party heads into a midterm election season that would be challenging no matter what, given President Donald Trump's low standing in polls and the fact that the party in control in Washington almost always loses seats.

The lack of enthusiasm is reaching deep into Republicans' loyal base, spreading to the party's most consistent voters -- who have shown up to vote in all of the past four primaries and general elections, according to an analysis done by Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative super PAC affiliated with billionaire Charles Koch. This new issue with the base adds to the party's more enduring problem of turning out less-frequent voters who support Trump but often skip midterm elections.

About 1 in 5 reliable Republican base voters are at risk this November, according to Nathan Nascimento, executive director at AFP Action. Those voters in Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Montana, New Hampshire and Michigan are either saying they may stay home or are weighing voting for Democrats, according to their data, which is based on polling and extensive efforts to engage targeted Republican voters by knocking on their doors. The voters are primarily worried about inflation and the economy.

"This is a big chunk," Nascimento said. "This is a scary number."

The article goes on to point out that, despite being only three points ahead on the generic ballot, "Democrats have a 10-percentage-point advantage over Republicans among voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote in November." That is good news indeed for Democrats, if it proves to be true.

It's no surprise that Democratic voters are a lot more enthusiastic about voting this time around. Other than a scattering of special elections (to replace members who resigned or died in office) and a few off-off-year gubernatorial elections (New Jersey and Virginia), this November will be the first time most voters will have to express their opinion of how Donald Trump and the Republican Congress have been doing leading the country. The really good news for Democrats is that in all of the elections that have happened since the start of 2025, Democrats have outperformed astonishingly well. They haven't won every single race, but even in the races they have lost there has been an astounding shift from the voters towards the Democrats. Trump did extremely well with a number of demographic groups that have now soured on him in a big way, according to these results. Latinos, Blacks, and young voters are all disillusioned with the unkept promises from Trump and are now swinging back to the Democratic Party in droves. And that was all true even before Trump started his ill-conceived war of choice with Iran, which has sent gas and diesel prices skyrocketing. Even farmers (who are usually reliable GOP voters) are now moving away from Trump, since his war has caused huge spikes in the prices they have been forced to pay for both diesel and fertilizer.

Trump's approval ratings are at historic lows, which is usually the best indicator of how any president's party is going to fare in the midterms. He doesn't seem interested in even attempting to make the case on the economic front (although he is giving a speech on the subject today in Michigan), which isn't too surprising since he really doesn't have a lot to boast about (prices are up, inflation is still way up, people are feeling the pain). Democrats are centering their campaign around affordability, which is smart since it is currently the number one issue for most voters. If the price of gasoline stays above (or even near) four dollars a gallon for another month or so, then voters are going to carry very sour feelings on the economy all the way into November.

This all leaves Republican voters feeling unenthusiastic, obviously. Trump has made the economy worse, there is no real end in sight to any of it, and Republicans have no new ideas for how to institute any radical changes which could make life better for average hardworking families. Democrats, on the other hand, are offering all sorts of ideas for how things could get better soon.

Economic reasons aside, though, millions of Democratic voters are beyond enthusiastic about being able to send a message to Trump and the Republicans. They're itching to "throw the bums out," which is a typical dynamic for any midterm election. And this dynamic isn't likely to change no matter what the Democratic Party does or doesn't manage to do before Election Day -- it's been building among the Democratic base in a big way ever since Trump got elected.

So the 2026 midterms may just hinge on the enthusiasm factor to the exclusion of all others. If Republican voters have a "Why bother?" attitude towards voting and some of their key demographics have moved sharply away from supporting Trump, while Democrats are ready to crawl over broken glass if they have to in order to cast their anti-Trump ballots, then nothing else any particular candidate says or does in the next three months may matter all that much. As I said, there are no guarantees, but that dynamic seems already baked into the cake, at this point.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant