In writing about Democratic hopes for a big win in the state of Texas, I have to start with a humorous quote (from Yogi Berra): "It's like déjà vu all over again." Too cynical? Well then how about a rousing Broadway tune instead:

To dream the impossible dream
To fight the unbeatable foe
To bear with unbearable sorrow
To run where the brave dare not go

To right the unrightable wrong
To love, pure and chaste, from afar
To try, when your arms are too weary
To reach the unreachable star

This is a song from the musical Man Of La Mancha. It is sung by Don Quixote, as he explains his reasons for tilting at windmills -- which is now a standard cliché for devoting your time and energy to lost causes.

Which brings us to the Texas Senate race. Democrats nationwide are once again daring to dream the seemingly-impossible dream of "turning Texas blue." This isn't exactly a new thing for them, since they've been dreaming this particular dream for a very long time now. Remember Beto O'Rourke? He's not the only Texas candidate Democrats across the country have gotten very excited over -- only to see him then go on to lose -- but he is the easiest one to remember, looking back.

This time around the hopes and dreams of Democrats rest on the shoulders of James Talarico, who is running against the sitting Texas attorney general, Ken Paxton. Paxton won the Republican nomination after a bruising primary campaign, where he defeated sitting Republican Senator John Cornyn. But Paxton is (to put it mildly) a polarizing figure even within Texas GOP politics, and his primary win was not universally celebrated by Republicans everywhere. In fact, Paxton is such a flawed candidate with so much political and personal baggage that he could actually be defeated by Talarico. That's the dream, at any rate.

The question, as always, is whether it is an achievable dream, as opposed to an impossible one. But the latest poll from Texas is giving Democrats some optimism in this regard, as it showed Talarico with a five-point lead over Paxton (45 percent to 40 percent). That is a very healthy margin for a Texas Democrat, and it is up from the polling firm's last poll (from May), which showed Talarico with only a two-point lead. This is the largest Talarico lead recorded in any poll taken after the primaries were over, it is worth mentioning.

Here is the good news, from the press release from the pollster, Texas Public Opinion Research (emphasis in original):

[James] Talarico continues to post strong margins with voters who self-identify as moderate (+34) and independent (+20).

Talarico’s lead is driven by a strong performance on affordability, which 44% of voters rank as their top priority in this election. Voters say Talarico better understands the economic challenges facing working Texans over Paxton by 7 points, and also trust Talarico to lower costs and improve Texans' financial situations over Paxton by a 9-point margin. Renters and non-college voters trust Talarico on these issues by even wider margins.

And here is more good news from the same poll:

The [Texas Public Opinion Research] poll found Talarico leading heavily among Black and Latino voters, while Paxton maintained a strong lead with white voters. Black voters broke 71% for Talarico and 8% for Paxton, while Latinos preferred Talarico by a 66% to 20% margin.

Paxton led among white voters, 53% to 33%.

Talarico's polling lead owes to his strength with independents and non-college educated voters. The poll found Talarico garnering 43% of independents to Paxton’s 23%; 29% remain undecided. Among self-described moderates, Talarico's lead is even more pronounced, with the Democrat ahead 54% to 20%.

Before anyone gets wildly excited though, a few caveats are in order -- starting with this one: this is just one poll. Various polls taken in June showed the contest tied or Paxton holding a lead of one or two points. And the polling organization which put out the most recent poll does have some ties to Democratic organizations, so conservatives are already scoffing at their results.

Even so... it certainly is interesting to see a Democrat with a five-point lead in Texas, isn't it? That's something that past contenders for the "turn Texas blue" prize haven't ever managed (to the best of my knowledge). Texas Republicans chose a candidate who (astonishingly enough) is even less well-liked by the state's voters than Ted Cruz, which is certainly notable.

Polling isn't even the only reason for optimism among Democrats about this race. While Talarico has been a fundraising juggernaut so far, Paxton's brutal victory over Cornyn (which required a runoff election) has caused so much bad blood among Republican donors that Paxton's campaign is struggling to raise any money at all. The GOP donor class in Texas heavily invested in Cornyn and have so far sat on the sidelines after he was defeated. The New York Times just ran an interesting story on the state of Paxton's money woes:

Mr. [Ken] Paxton finds himself in a unique situation among Senate candidates, according to interviews with a dozen Republicans with ties to his campaign. Republican donors still hold grudges from a bruising primary. The state, with its 18-plus television markets, is an epically expensive setting. And his Democratic opponent, James Talarico, has proved to be a particularly strong fund-raiser.

Perhaps the most striking piece of Mr. Paxton's money woes is the high-stakes game of chicken that two of the Republican Party's biggest money committees, along with their allied donors, are playing.

Both of those groups, the Senate Leadership Fund and MAGA Inc., are not so secretly hoping that the other one swoops in to boost Mr. Paxton with tens of millions in spending, the Republicans said. Neither group has reached for its wallet yet.

. . .

Republicans say that Texas requires around $15 million a week in super PAC advertising to mount a comprehensive paid-media campaign, making Texas more a drain on resources than cheaper states that could also decide the majority.

The amount of Republican spending planned in Texas from now through Election Day, according to AdImpact, a media tracking firm: $0.

Of course, the candidate who spends the most money doesn't always win the race (as Texas Democrats know only too well), but it certainly is a good sign to see Paxton struggling so hard convincing GOP donors to back him.

Taken together, the new poll just out and Paxton's fundraising woes certainly do give rise to a certain degree of Democratic optimism. Which is why we decided to close this article with a different Broadway musical song. This one's from Cabaret and shares its title with this article today -- "Maybe This Time"...

Well, all the odds are, they're in my favor
Something's bound to begin
It's gotta happen, happen sometime
Maybe this time
Maybe this time I'll win

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant