ChrisWeigant.com

2012 Electoral Math -- Obama Solidifies Bounce

[ Posted Wednesday, September 26th, 2012 – 17:21 UTC ]

We last surveyed the electoral math a week and a half ago, but as we get closer to the election, the poll data will stream in faster and faster, meaning we've got to keep up by pacing these columns faster as well.

While the overall split between the candidates hasn't changed a whole lot since last time, the dynamics of the race underlying the overall numbers has indeed shifted for both candidates. The news was slightly better for each candidate in some regards, and slightly worse in others. All around, Barack Obama is holding onto and improving on his post-convention bounce, and Mitt Romney continues to struggle to make any ground, while slightly strengthening his base.

Here's how the election would break down if held today. Obama's electoral votes (or "EV") start from the bottom of the chart and are measured in blue, while Romney's start from the top and are in red, with ties colored white in the middle. As mentioned, this chart has stayed fairly stable:

Electoral Math By Percent

[Click on any of theses graphs to see larger-scale versions.]

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Will Colorado Legalize Pot?

[ Posted Tuesday, September 25th, 2012 – 17:11 UTC ]

Are Colorado voters going to pass Amendment 64 in November, which would legalize recreational (not just medicinal) marijuana use for all adults in the state? The bigger question, should this come to pass, is what is the federal government going to do about it?

Recent polls show a marked lead for the ballot initiative. The most recent put the pro-legalization position at 51 percent, to only 40 percent for the antis. That's an impressive gap, although polling on such a dicey question is notoriously hard to do accurately. California had a vote on a similar issue two years ago, and the polling looked good, but it lost by almost 8 points on election day -- which none of the polls had predicted. So counting chickens beforehand isn't always wise.

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America's Increasing Optimism May Help Obama

[ Posted Monday, September 24th, 2012 – 16:40 UTC ]

The American public, over the past few weeks, seems to have gotten more optimistic about the future. These recent gains have been somewhat modest and still far below a majority of the public being optimistic, but if this trend continues for the next month or so it will likely help President Obama's chances of being re-elected.

While Obama has been enjoying a post-convention "bounce" in polls which ask which candidate Americans plan on voting for (and also in Obama's job approval numbers), there's another question pollsters ask which hasn't been getting as much attention. This question is usually posed as some form of: "Do you think the country is generally heading in the right direction, or have things gotten off on the wrong track?" It's supposed to measure general optimism and pessimism about the country's near future.

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Friday Talking Points [227] -- Smile, Mitt, You're On Candid Camera!

[ Posted Friday, September 21st, 2012 – 15:25 UTC ]

Wouldn't it be amusingly ironic if Mitt Romney only managed to get 47 percent of the national popular vote for president? It would renew my faith that the universe has a sense of humor, that's for sure.

Mitt Romney seems to be in the midst of what could be called an "extended macaca moment," desperately trying to divert people's attention from the video released earlier in the week. To show the level of this desperation, Mitt just did something he really hates to do -- he released another year of tax returns for the public and press to put their grubby little hands all over. When Mitt is releasing tax returns to change the subject, you just know he's in a bad place politically.

It may still be way too early to confidently predict the outcome of this year's election, but it isn't too early to call Mitt Romney's campaign (so far) an unmitigated disaster. Or maybe a "Mitt-igated" disaster, I'll have to check the dictionary. Any doubts as to the truth of this were dispelled today with the news that Mitt's campaign gave out bonuses to all the top staff, just after the Republican National Convention -- to the tune of $192,440. See, Republican politics should be run just like Wall Street -- it doesn't matter how badly you screw things up, you still get a fat bonus to take home when the dust settles. Yay!

Things weren't supposed to go this way, of course. A Democratic president with high unemployment led to a disgruntled public which seemed ready and willing to hand over the Oval Office keys to Any Generic Republican Candidate, a few months back. But then they got a look at Mister Generic himself, Mitt Romney, and have apparently decided that this Barack Obama fellow might deserve a second shot after all.

Republicans are still clinging to their hopes that Mitt Romney is the second coming of Ronald Reagan (no, really -- this is what they've come to), and that the proper electoral model for what is about to happen is 1980. Instead, the election is looking more and more like 2004, with the parties reversed. The rich white guy from Massachusetts who lacks charisma and can't seem to relate to average voters gets beat by a not-as-popular-as-he-once-was incumbent.

But, as we said, it's probably too early to draw such conclusions, as there certainly will be plenty of time for that after the votes are counted.

Let's see, what else is going on this week? The surge in Afghanistan is now officially over, "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" repeal had an anniversary but nobody even noticed, and Occupy tried to hold their own first birthday party. Oh, and the United States Constitution is now officially 225 years old, so join me in saying "Happy birthday, foundational American governmental document!"

 

Most Impressive Democrat of the Week

The most impressive thing this week was the news that more U.S. soldiers have come home from the "graveyard of empires," Afghanistan. The anti-war folks will point out that the surge never should have happened in the first place, and at this point it's hard to argue otherwise, but it's always a good thing to see more soldiers coming home rather than heading out to foreign battlegrounds.

Maxine Waters beat a rap with the House ethics watchdogs, which cleared her name of the insinuation of wrongdoing for personal gain. But just proving your detractors wrong isn't really "impressive," rather more of a vindication. Elizabeth Warren performed well at her debate with Scott Brown, but certainly still has room for improvement in debating on television, so we're going to pass over her as well (Warren has been posting some impressive poll numbers, we should at least mention, though).

Joe Biden deserves at least an Honorable Mention, for posting the highest television ratings of any speaker during the Democratic National Convention. Way to go, Joe!

But our Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week this week is none other than James Earl Carter IV, grandson of ex-president Jimmy. Carter was the one who found the Romney video online, and who ferreted out the person who posted it anonymously -- and then promptly put it in the hands of Mother Jones, and the rest is history. Carter doesn't approve of Romney's characterization of his grandfather's time in office, apparently.

For performing this public service, James Earl Carter IV is our Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week this week. His action certainly set the tone of the campaign, all week long. We even have an amusing photo of the two Carters to share, which had been filed under "Ten Epic Yawns." All I can say is, nobody in the Romney camp is yawning now.

[James Earl Carter IV is a private citizen, and it is our policy not to provide contact information for people not officially in politics.]

 

Most Disappointing Democrat of the Week

We really don't have a Most Disappointing Democrat Of The Week this week. The folks at the Justice Department who were disciplined over Fast and Furious seem far enough down the chain of command not to be political appointees, and we just didn't notice any others who made the scandal sheets this week. Maybe it's because I'm just getting over a cold, so I could have been so befogged with cough syrup earlier that I missed somebody, who knows? Feel free to make suggestions in the comments, as always.

Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper is being hypocritical in his stance against his state's upcoming ballot measure which would legalize marijuana for all adults, but he barely even rises to the level of a (Dis-)Honorable Mention, in our opinion.

 

Friday Talking Points

Volume 227 (9/21/12)

This past week was one of those when instructing Democrats how to frame talking points becomes almost redundant -- both because they just write themselves, and also because Democrats are actually doing a fairly great job of jumping all over Mitt Romney and his disdain for 47 percent of America.

In other words, it's now officially "Shooting Fish In A Barrel Week." Or, at least, 47 percent of them.

I've even got a bonus talking point, because it was so easy to come up with more than seven this week. Remember, back in the Election 2012 Dark Ages... say, a month ago... when Mitt Romney and the Republicans were all whining that President Obama was "being divisive"? It was a big talking point on the right, for some reason. Obama was "dividing" the country up and "setting groups against each other." Remember those halcyon days?

Well, Republicans apparently haven't. So, please, do your best to remind them of the reeking stench of their hypocrisy this week. Unless, of course, they denounce Mitt Romney's "47 percent" remarks, but I wouldn't exactly recommend holding your breath and waiting for that to happen.

 

1
   Say that to their faces, Mitt.

The most odious point should really be the first one you bother to use. All else follows, really.

"So Mitt Romney thinks that wounded war veterans are, to use his term, 'victims.' I cannot tell you how disgusted that mischaracterization makes me feel -- words fail me. These brave men and women who have put their lives on the line for this country -- and are now being supported by a grateful America, as they should be -- have to listen to a man who never wore his country's uniform disparage them and what they have been through. Well, wounded or not, Mr. Romney, I'd like to see you say that to their faces. I think I know what their response would be."

 

2
   Don't forget the seniors

Seniors vote, remember. Especially in places like sunny Florida.

"For all the seniors out there who have worked hard all their lives and contributed to programs like Social Security and Medicare, I would like to say to Mitt Romney how dare you call my parents 'not responsible' and 'victims'! How dare you use such language to speak of someone who lived through the Great Depression, especially considering that you have never wondered where your next meal was coming from for your entire life. The nerve of simply writing off 'The Greatest Generation' in such a fashion is downright offensive -- not just to me, but to all the parents and grandparents out there whose vote Mitt Romney is seeking."

 

3
   Donor regret setting in yet?

This one is too easy a knife to twist.

"Mitt Romney just handed out almost two hundred thousand dollars in bonuses to his campaign team. Boy, if I were a Romney donor, I'd be hopping mad to hear that. The gang who can't shoot straight is being lavished with extra money from Mitt Romney's campaign? And he's supposed to be the one who understands business? Maybe Wall Street banking, where everyone gets a bonus no matter how badly they blow it, but as I said, if I had donated that money, I'd be picking up the phone to the Romney campaign right about now. If not putting a stop payment on the check."

 

4
   Romney wants to expand the 47 percent!

I went into detail on why it is laughably ironic to hear Republicans complain about a result their own policies have largely created earlier this week. But since Mitt released a tax return today, let's hit him on that argument instead.

"Since, by Mitt Romney's figuring, no other taxes than income taxes seem to 'count,' let's look at Mitt Romney's tax burden. Since 'capital gains taxes' are different than 'income taxes' they don't really count towards Mitt's total, which leaves Mitt paying less than one percent in income taxes. Paul Ryan wants to get this down to zero for Mitt and everyone like him -- that's part of his budget. So what Ryan and Romney would do would be to move a whole bunch of millionaires and billionaires into that 47 percent they talk about. They don't hate the 47 percent -- they want to be part of it!"

 

5
   I guess farmers don't count, either

This one should be aimed at every single Republican in the House of Representatives, back home on the campaign trail.

"The Republican House left town without doing its job -- and because of their incompetence, America's farmers have no idea what the federal government will be doing to help them during a year that saw a devastating drought across over half the country. Senate Democrats and Republicans passed a bipartisan farm bill, but the House couldn't get the job done. I guess Republicans have decided it's not their job to worry about the farmers of America, even if they aren't part of the other 47 percent Mitt Romney's ignoring. Hope all those farmers are paying attention to which party is working for them, and which party refuses to do its job."

 

6
   What battlegrounds?

Mitt Romney doesn't seem to be having much luck in the polls these days. Which is, of course, worth pointing out.

"All the pundits talk about the 'battleground states' but according to all the polls I've seen, Barack Obama seems to be leading in just about every single one of them. I just saw Mitt Romney can't even count on North Carolina anymore, which I think was just about the only battleground state he had been polling consistently well in. I realize the media loves to keep all these states labeled 'battlegrounds' to prolong the suspense of the race, but it seems to me in quite a few of these the battle's really already been won."

 

7
   That one looks like a campaign going down in flames, doesn't it?

I saved the best one for last. This is up there with the "trees are the right height" quote from Michigan. When a reporter asked Mitt Romney recently whether he would be campaigning more extensively in the near future, the New York Times reports Mitt's response:

"Ha, ha. We're in the stretch, aren't we?" Mr. Romney said before promptly changing the subject and pointing to the sky. "Look at those clouds. It's beautiful. Look at those things."

-- Chris Weigant

 

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Cross-posted at: Democratic Underground

 

The Non-Story Of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" Repeal's Anniversary

[ Posted Thursday, September 20th, 2012 – 17:03 UTC ]

Today's column is not an actual column, per se, but rather a small collection of random thoughts. The first of these is to congratulate Malcom Fox (whom you all should remember from his cogent and timely reports from the Democratic National Convention here in these pages) for impressing the folks at Huffington Post enough with his writing skills to land a blogger slot in their "Teen" section. We spotted Fox's writing abilities immediately when he asked to blog for us from the convention, and we are pleased to see others second that opinion. So look for Malcom's postings soon in Huffington Post, and we wish him well in his growing writing career!

The second program note to mention is that I am diving back in to the task of finalizing my external writing project, and hence may be taking the odd Tuesday or Thursday off (or, as today, passing off what is clearly not an actual column as scintillating new stuff for you to read). I'm in the home stretch, so hopefully this shouldn't take up too much time.

Thirdly, thanks to everyone for the kind thoughts while ill; I am now once again "better" and running somewhere near 100 percent. Summer colds are a drag. So is flying on commercial airlines. Don't get me started....

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Why Are Republicans Complaining About The 47 Percent?

[ Posted Wednesday, September 19th, 2012 – 15:48 UTC ]

Why are Republicans suddenly complaining about what should, by their logic, be a success story for them? Why have Mitt Romney and all the other GOP pearl-clutchers gotten the vapors over the 47 percent of Americans who do not pay federal income taxes? After all, if you follow Republican dogma all the way through to its logical conclusion, Republicans are supposed to be working hard every day to reduce taxes on everybody, all of the time. "Reducing" taxes is one thing, but the ultimate in reduction is complete elimination, right? Republicans really do believe that America would be better off if everyone's taxes got as close to zero as possible. So why aren't they ecstatic that they've achieved half their goal?

Think about it. At the heart of Mitt Romney's new argument is a complete disconnect with the core, unshakeable tenet of the Republican faith -- "lower taxes for all." What Mitt Romney is arguing, when stripped of heated rhetoric, is that it is a bad thing that 47 percent don't pay federal income taxes, and that it would be a good thing if those people actually did pay federal income taxes -- thus arguing for raising taxes on half of the country. There is no way to escape this -- you are either for raising taxes, or you are for lowering taxes. Mitt Romney is now, apparently, for raising taxes on tens of millions of people. He really can't have it both ways.

One might argue that Mitt Romney and the Republicans are upset over the 47 percent because they're really only about lowering taxes on the very wealthy, and don't really care about anyone else's tax burden. It's certainly a valid argument to attempt.

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Happy 225th!

[ Posted Tuesday, September 18th, 2012 – 17:41 UTC ]

Yesterday was a momentous occasion, but I was steeped in crass horserace politics, and so failed to mention it. Two hundred and twenty-five years ago yesterday, the United States Constitution was adopted by the convention called to create it.

Americans today tend to romanticize the entire Founding Fathers era, and thus tend to think of the Constitution being handed down on stone tablets, complete with the first ten amendments. Instead, it was the product of four months worth of discussion and debate. This debate was closed to the public and the press, but reports which leaked out indicated that many compromises had to be struck to get a majority to support the new governmental structure.

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2012 Electoral Math -- Obama's Bounce

[ Posted Monday, September 17th, 2012 – 15:05 UTC ]

The last time we took a look at the electoral math was just before convention season was about to get underway. Since it's now been over a week since the end of the Democratic National Convention, the effects of both parties' conventions are beginning to show up in the state-level polling. The news for the Obama team is good, almost across the board, as Romney showed little or no "bounce" from his convention, while Obama gained a significant bump after the Democrats' big party.

We'll get to specifics in a minute, but first here's the overview of how the race stands. Obama's electoral votes (henceforth "EV") start from the bottom and are measured in blue, and Romney's start from the top and are in red (ties are white, in the middle). If the polls are correct and the election were held today, here's how it would break down:

Electoral Math By Percent

[Click on any of theses graphs to see larger-scale versions.]

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Friday Talking Points [226] -- Convention Talking Points

[ Posted Friday, September 14th, 2012 – 15:22 UTC ]

OK, I've got a few short things to say up front here, and then we'll get right to a special edition of the talking points.

The first thing worth mentioning is that I'm still running a week behind schedule, due to getting ill at the Democratic National Convention last week. This column, by all rights, really should have run a week ago. Instead, there was no Friday Talking Points column at all, for which we apologize.

The second item of note is that today marks the fifth "birthday" of this column series. September 14, 2007 saw the very first Friday Talking Points column ever (although the name and the column format wouldn't solidify for a few months). Since then, almost every Friday, we've been attempting to provide Democratic talking points for politicians to use to get their point across in a snappy and memorable fashion. How much success we've had doing so is open to interpretation, but we're still here doing it, which tends to indicate that Democrats still have a ways to go to match the Republican ability to keep "on script" during interviews. To put this another way, it's the old Democratic "herding cats" problem.

Finally, before we get to our review of the best talking points from the Democratic National Convention which you may have missed, we do have to apologize for ignoring the main news story of the week, coming out of the Middle East. We could say that we're setting an example for politicians (...cough, cough, Mitt Romney, cough...) to wait a decent amount of time before going off half-cocked on a developing situation, but instead we are just way behind on keeping up with the news, so we're going to resist the urge to "spin" our own backlog into some sort of noble stand. The only thing to say at this point is: defending free speech is easy when everyone agrees with the speech -- it's defending odious and reprehensible speech that is always the harder path. More on this subject next week.

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Inside The Mind Of Malcom -- Closing Thoughts On The Democratic National Convention

[ Posted Thursday, September 13th, 2012 – 16:37 UTC ]

[Program Note: Below is our final piece from our guest reporter for the Democratic National Convention, Malcom Fox. Malcom is 17 years old and approached us "cold" (we had never met or had any contact with him previously) before the convention, with the proposal that we carry his blog postings on our site. We took a chance on him, purely on the strength of his writing abilities and political savviness (both of which are far beyond the abilities of your average high school student, we hasten to point out), and after publishing his "Inside The Mind Of Malcom" article series, we can honestly say we are glad we gave him this opportunity. Below is his final look back on the experience of attending the Democratic National Convention before he was even old enough to cast a vote in a presidential election. Malcom is interested in political science when he gets to college, and we sincerely wish him success in his future endeavors -- and we fully expect to see him on Capitol Hill in some capacity before too long. Please let him know in the comments what you thought of his reporting for the past few weeks. And one final note, to anyone out there wishing to write and get noticed: sometimes the only way such things actually happen is if you take a chance and put yourself out there.]

-- Chris Weigant

 

Closing Thoughts On The Democratic National Convention

Overall: not bad Dems, not bad. The Democratic National Convention, like anything else, had its highs and lows. However, the Democratic National Convention speakers at their best certainly outclassed the speakers from the Republican National Convention and the lows provided by Clint Eastwood were thankfully unmatched. The first night of the convention contained the best collection of speakers. Deval Patrick gave Democrats the adrenaline kick they needed and Julian Castro inspired a host of middle class Americans to chase their dreams. Michelle Obama gave an incredible speech that made the best case for Obama's re-election by identifying him as a middle class man who lived the American dream. Bill Clinton was obviously the highlight of the convention and his speaking abilities lit a liberal flame within anyone at the convention that shall not be quenched until the re-election of Barack Obama. The third night I felt to be a let down by Obama's lack of including physical policy in his speech. He spoke too much about hope without giving Americans evidence to support him.

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