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This week, Wall Street figured out something about Donald Trump (that Vladimir Putin has known for quite a while now) and gave it a catchy name: "TACO." This stands for: "Trump Always Chickens Out."
Donald Trump may accomplish one big thing as president, in his second term. He may speed up the judicial process to the point where its decisions are still actually relevant when they are handed down.
I say this after the legal whiplash of the last 24 hours or so, as first two federal courts ruled (independently of each other) that Trump's worldwide tariffs were illegal, and then today an appellate court temporarily halted the injunction (which would have erased all the tariffs Trump announced on "Liberation Day"). So we're now (temporarily, at least) back to where we were before yesterday's rulings, as the appellate court has asked both the plaintiffs and the Trump administration to file their responses in the next two weeks. They could issue a final ruling on the appeal at any time after that. Obviously, no matter which way the appellate court rules, this case seems destined for the Supreme Court in the end, but nobody knows how fast they'll rule on it (if they followed their normal schedule, it'd take at least six months or so for a final ruling, but they may well expedite the case).
There are two basic ways to successfully deal with a bully: you can stand up to him, or you can laugh at him. Wall Street is apparently now taking the second route, as traders openly ridicule Donald Trump.
There's a new acronym making the rounds on Wall Street: "TACO," or (more specifically) the "TACO trade." It stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," and it refers to the resilience of the markets after a cycle which is becoming more frequent in Trump's tariff war. The cycle starts when Trump, in a fit of pique, announces insanely-high tariffs will be levied. The market then tanks. Trump then backs off and announces he will be "pausing" the tariffs, or severely rolling them back. The market then gains back what it had lost.
Donald Trump never admits he's ever been wrong about anything. His narcissistic personality won't allow him to, most likely, but no matter what the psychological reason behind it is, Trump infamously never admits a mistake. This weekend he came about as close to admitting being wrong as he ever has, which was remarkable enough.
Since today is Memorial Day, I'd like to begin with a remembrance of our most forgettable war, the War of 1812. How forgettable was this war? Well, its bicentennial passed by a few years ago, but the country as a whole took little notice. That's pretty forgettable, as these things are measured. In fact, only one event during this war has become what one might call (if one were in the mood for a pun) a "Key" moment, but more on that in due course.
Once again, the Republican Party has laid out its real agenda, in the form of a federal budget. And once again, they have proven what their real priorities are: cutting taxes on the wealthiest Americans no matter what -- no matter who has to pay for it, or how.
Disasters happen. It's a fact of life. Mother Nature occasionally decides to wreak havoc, and there's not a whole lot humanity can do about it. Steps can be taken to mitigate the worst features of a disaster (such as strengthening building codes), people do what they can to cope with disasters when they strike, and then the affected area goes through a phase of recovery and rebuilding after the disaster is over. Natural disasters can't be prevented, but we do everything we can in their aftermath to ameliorate the suffering. That's the way it is supposed to work, in any case.
Donald Trump visited Capitol Hill today, in an attempt to browbeat his fellow Republicans into supporting a budget bill. Speaker Mike Johnson has his own self-imposed deadline of passing the bill this week, before Memorial Day. Whether this plan succeeds or not is still very much in doubt, however.
House Speaker Mike Johnson is trying, once again, to herd his Republican cats. As usual, this comes to the fore in the form of a budget bill. With a razor-thin majority and several competing factions, the question is whether he can assuage all of them enough to drag his bill over the finish line this week before Congress scarpers off on vacation once again.
Donald Trump seems to now be in full retreat on his trade war. Which is good news, since American consumers are the ones who would have paid the price for it all. The strategy for other countries to follow is becoming clear now -- just wait Trump out, and eventually he will cave on his own, due to political and economic pressures increasing on him over time.
This strategy worked wonders for China, as last weekend Trump dropped his tariff levels against the country by a whopping 115 percentage points. This was precisely what China had been demanding he do before any trade negotiations could even begin. All they had to do was wait.