Pointless Wars
Today America memorializes 250 years of those who gave the ultimate sacrifice in service to their country. Since America is currently at war once again, the question on my mind is how many of these brave Americans died in stupid wars? And which one was the stupidest?
Perhaps that's too harsh. Maybe the question should be what was America's most pointless war? That question (phrased politely or not) certainly is relevant now, with the current conflict right up there in the running for that ignominious award.
Donald Trump's war of choice with Iran is certainly a contender for the most pointless American war ever, but there are others which could also take the prize. The War of 1812 was pretty pointless, especially when you consider that we thought we'd just invade Canada, liberate them from their British overlords, and they'd be so grateful they'd celebrate and decide to join the United States out of sheer gratitude. Obviously, things didn't work out that way, which is why that misguided invasion is emblematic of that entire (and rather pointless) war.
Historians would doubtlessly argue about which of the wars America has fought deserve a nomination for the stupidest one ever. Pretty much every war we've fought since World War II -- from Korea onward -- would probably at least qualify. What was achieved by the Vietnam War, in the end? Or Iraq, or Afghanistan? Precious little.
To be fair, some wars do end up positively, with the situation afterwards improved in some way from the way things were before the war started. With the pointless ones, however, the post-war situation winds up being either exactly the same as before the fighting started, or (at times) even worse. That's the prospect we are now facing in Iran, whether a peace deal is reached soon or later or even not at all.
Trump has this cycle where he trolls Iran and the rest of the world (meaning, for him: the stock and international oil markets). He begins by confidently stating that a deal is on the brink of being signed. Then he goes too far and brags about what Iran "has already agreed to." Iran usually doesn't react immediately to this, doubtlessly because all their leaders are contacting each other and scratching their heads wondering: "Is he serious? Is he just misinformed or outright lying?" They should not feel alone -- this is a common reaction to things Trump says by the entire rest of the world, America included. Eventually, Iran issues denials, stating that: (1) no deal is imminent, and: (2) if one were, it certainly wouldn't include all the things on Trump's list, since they haven't agreed to any of them yet. They then usually put out a draft of their own, with their own outlandish demands. Trump gets annoyed, and loudly proclaims: "The deal's off -- I have ripped up their proposal!" He then threatens to absolutely destroy their civilization, either imminently or real soon or possibly tomorrow. Whenever this self-imposed deadline arrives, Trump decides not to pull the trigger, and instead says something like "negotiations are ongoing and look positive." Then the cycle starts all over again (rinse and repeat).
Sooner or later, all this bluster will assumably turn into a deal of sorts. What that short-term deal will include, and what will be included in any final deal reached, is almost certainly going to closely resemble what the situation was before Trump decided to muck it all up.
Trump wants an iron-clad deal which will prevent Iran from ever developing a nuclear weapon, period. He has given up on the fantasy (sold to him by Benjamin Netanyahu) of the Iranian people rising up and overthrowing their regime, and has "redefined down" the entire concept of "regime change" to now only mean: "Well, some different guys are in control, so the regime changed!" This is laughable, but whatever it takes for Trump to save face.
Iran wants to preserve their ability to (at least in the future) enrich uranium. But they may agree to a period of time when they don't do any of it, and they may agree to give up the half-ton of highly enriched uranium that they currently possess. They will also doubtlessly agree to have inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency monitor their facilities to verify that they are not enriching any uranium.
There are other goals each side has, as well. Trump ideally wants Iran to stop aiding proxy groups in the region (the Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, etc.) and to destroy and stop producing long-range missiles. Iran wants to charge tolls for the use of the Strait of Hormuz. It also wants all the assets that have been seized and frozen to be released to it -- to the tune of over $10 billion. It wants all sanctions to end as well, and it would really like America to pay it war reparations, since it was not threatening to attack American forces or American interests in any way when Trump decided to start bombing. This was a totally unprovoked war, as far as Iran is concerned.
The biggest two issues right now are the ones that will likely be decided in a short-term agreement: the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and the naval blockade of Iranian ports. Ending both of those things (while sitting down to try to hash out a wider and more comprehensive agreement) will, pretty obviously, only return everything to the way it was the day before the war started -- when the Strait was open to all and Iran's ports were also open.
That's pretty pointless, in the grand scheme of things. Especially if Iran is successful at dragging the final negotiations out for years. Trump may have finally met his match at the game of: "Delay, delay, delay." But even if some sort of workable deal is reached with Iran (in 30 days or 60 days or 600 days or whatever...), this also will likely only return everything to where it was before Trump created the whole mess in the first place.
Any deal that Trump strikes with Iran is almost guaranteed to closely resemble the deal which was already in place and working when Trump first took office. Trump can deny this reality until he's blue in the face, but he is not going to fool many people. Trump tore up the deal with Iran solely because it was negotiated by Barack Obama.
When he did tear it up -- which is the real status quo antebellum here, not "how things were before Trump started bombing" -- Iran was completely precluded from working towards a nuclear weapon. They had turned over 97 percent of their enriched uranium, they were not enriching uranium to more than the very low level needed for nuclear reactors, and the I.A.E.A. was monitoring everything and verifying Iran was sticking to the deal. Iran had no highly-enriched uranium when Trump first took office, and it was not producing any. This would have lasted until 2030 -- long after Trump left office. At that point, assumably, a new deal would have to be hashed out with Iran, which they would probably have been willing to at least consider.
But because it was an Obama achievement, the Republicans hated it. They darkly warned that this would "put Iran on a path to obtaining a nuclear weapon!" as if it was going to happen imminently (instead of in 2030 and beyond). Trump denounced Obama's deal in the strongest language possible, insisting that he would force a better deal on the Iranians.
He didn't. He ended his first term having ripped up the Obama deal and replaced it with absolutely nothing. If he had not ripped up the deal, then Iran would not now have that half-ton of uranium enriched to 60 percent. It wouldn't exist. Trump caused the very thing that Republicans said they were so worried about to happen over a decade early.
So any agreement reached with Iran about their nuclear program should really be measured against where we'd all be if Trump hadn't ripped up the Obama deal. Any such deal will almost certainly push the timeline out beyond 2030 -- so hopefully that's face-saving enough for Trump to agree to it -- but it will also likely be very close to what the Iranians agreed to with Obama.
The entire exercise, from beginning to end, is going to wind up being utterly pointless. Which is why Trump's war of choice with Iran may prove to be the stupidest war America has ever fought.
Of course, the soldiers who fight in America's wars -- no matter how pointless they turn out to be -- should still be honored, especially those who gave their lives in them. Even Donald Trump can't take away the real meaning of Memorial Day, because it's not just this one -- plenty of wars America has fought have turned out to be pointless. Which doesn't detract at all from the sacrifices made by those in uniform who have to fight them.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

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