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As is my wont, I'm going to circle the edges of the political bombshell John Roberts just flung into the arena. Maybe by tomorrow, it'll have percolated through my brain enough to intelligently attack the main issue, but I just haven't reached that point yet, so you'll have to forgive me.
It's time once again to begin seriously taking a look at the electoral math for the upcoming election. I know, I know, everyone else is court-watching this week, but instead I decided to spend some time poll-watching, for those of you who may be getting tired of endless Supreme Court speculation and analysis.
May was not all that exceptional a month for Barack Obama, poll-wise. Both approval and disapproval rates were up slightly, but not significantly. It is a bit odd to have both numbers increase within the same month, but this is mostly due to the fact that the numbers themselves are so close to being even (statistically, this does odd things right around the point where they perfectly balance).
It's hard to predict the outcome of the race, and it's equally hard to say "what it all means" in the grand scheme of things. The winning side will, no doubt, claim the victory as some sort of national mandate to push their agenda, but the outcome may be of limited importance no matter who prevails.
Liberals are apparently being mean to the Supreme Court, which (as we all know) Republicans would never in a million years think of doing... (pause for extended laughing fit)... (wipes eyes)... seriously, you guys just crack me up sometimes.
The thought which keeps flitting through my mind is whether the Republicans are going to face their own "PUMA" problem this fall. For those who don't remember the term from 2008, PUMA stood for "Party Unity, My Ass!" and was the rallying cry of the non-existent hordes of pro-Hillary Democrats who were reportedly going to cause major disruption at the Democratic National Convention, and then throw the election to John McCain in the fall.
For now, I'm just going to go with my gut. Paying little or no attention to actual polling (where it even exists -- it's still mighty early), instead I lay out today the states I'll be watching closely, and how I think the chips will fall in November based only on my gut feelings. If this sort of thing doesn't interest you, well, there's plenty of other stuff on the internet to look at, right?
We're throwing our usual format away today, because this was a momentous and historic week in American politics, and we thought it needed the entire column to address. Call it an extended rant, rather than talking points. There are two parts to this rant. The first is positive. The second is negative. Then, I (hopefully) change it all back to positive at the end.
President Barack Obama had another uneventful month in the polls last month. I realize that's a pretty dull way to start a column, but we do the best with the data we are given, so to speak. Obama's average approval rate and disapproval rate both got better by the slimmest of margins -- one-tenth of a point -- which places him pretty much where he ended the past two months. His approval rating stayed above his disapproval rating, but by a margin of less than a full percentage point.
We begin by saying we certainly hope we can live up to such an exuberant headline. You will have to judge for yourself whether all those exclamation points were justified or not.