Housing Bill Chaos
At times, I almost feel sorry for John Thune. This is not a normal thing for me to feel, since he is the Republican Senate majority leader. But watching Donald Trump callously make Thune's job a lot harder than it needs to be almost makes me feel sorry for him.
Almost.
After tanking Thune's plan to pass an extension of a national security bill and confirm a permanent director of national intelligence, Trump followed this up with having a hissy fit and refusing to sign what is probably the most bipartisan piece of legislation this Congress is going to achieve. The bill deals with housing, and is an effort to make building houses easier and buying houses more affordable. It would be a rare achievement for the Republicans, who so far haven't done much of anything to address the affordability problems millions of American families are experiencing.
One of the bill's main authors was Senator Elizabeth Warren, which means there's plenty in it for Democrats to support as well. Which is why it passed both houses of Congress with overwhelming margins -- 358 to 32 in the House, and a whopping 85 to 5 in the Senate.
Because it garnered such widespread support, there was a planned signing ceremony with Donald Trump at the Capitol (Trump was there yesterday to address Republican senators during their lunch). However, at the last minute, Trump cancelled it and refused to sign the bill.
Trump is having an extended tantrum over the fact that a bill that he really wants to see passed is just not going to pass. This bill would change the way elections are administered and it does not even have enough support among Republicans to pass the Senate -- a fact John Thune keeps telling Trump. But Trump's not satisfied with that, and wants to wave some sort of magic wand and get the bill on his desk. So he's doing everything he can to make Thune's life miserable in the meantime.
Hissy fits aside, the question now is where does this leave the housing bill? Trump hasn't come right out and said he's not going to sign it -- he just cancelled the ceremony where that was supposed to happen. At this point, nobody really knows what he's going to do.
The bill won't stay in Limbo forever, though. Over the course of the next few days (and possibly weeks), a number of things could happen. Once the bill is formally presented to the president (which has yet to happen, as House Speaker Mike Johnson is still sitting on it), Trump can do one of three things: sign it, veto it, or just do nothing.
If he signs it, of course, it will become law. However, there are other pathways it could take to become law as well. If Trump vetoes the bill, then both houses of Congress could vote to override his veto. The initial vote count in both houses was far above the two-thirds support necessary to override a presidential veto, so this could actually become the first veto override of Trump's second term. Congress also has the option of just doing nothing -- not holding a veto-override vote -- which would mean the bill will just die. But it's hard to see them doing that (even if Trump cranks up the pressure on them) because the bill has so much support.
If Trump does nothing after he officially receives the bill, then Congress has two options. The first is that it can stay in session for 10 days (not counting Sundays). If this happens, then the bill becomes law even without Trump's signature and without Congress having to hold another vote.
If, however, either chamber does formally adjourn when the 10-day deadline is up, then Trump will have exercised the "pocket veto" and the bill will not become law. Congress cannot override a pocket veto, so that would be the end of it.
This is all very complicated, when the smart thing to do would be for Trump just to sign it -- with or without a bipartisan ceremony. But the bill is not on Trump's personal agenda, and he seems rather ambivalent about it (he's even posted snide insults about Elizabeth Warren and the bill on social media).
Not signing the bill would be a serious political mistake, but Trump may just not care. As mentioned, this is the only thing Republicans in Congress have done to address the affordability issue in any way. And Democrats are already running their midterm campaigns with affordability at the center of their pitch to the voters.
The bill won't make any magical changes that homebuyers will experience before the midterm elections -- it will have a more gradual effect felt over the next few years. But at least it could be something Republicans could point to in order to counter Democratic attacks on them on the affordability issue -- "Look, we did something!"
Trump has yanked the rug out from underneath that effort, though. After all, he's not going to be on the ballot in November, and he just keeps proving over and over again that he really doesn't care enough to lift a finger in any way to help his fellow Republicans' chances in the midterms. He keeps brushing off the affordability crisis as some sort of "hoax" dreamed up by the Democrats that he need not concern himself with. Much to the detriment of those Republicans who will desperately be trying to get re-elected in November.
As of now, everything is still up in the air. Trump is having his little hissy fit, but he may eventually decide signing the bill is the smart thing to do (especially if Thune and Johnson can convince him of this fact). If he doesn't sign the bill, there are other pathways the bill could take to become law. Until Trump clarifies the situation in some way, however, John Thune is left twisting in the wind.
It's almost enough to make me feel sorry for him. Almost... but not quite.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

Leave a Reply
[If you have questions as to how to register or log in, to be able to post comments here, or if you'd like advanced commenting and formatting tips, please visit our "Commenting Tips" page, for further details.]
You must be logged in to post a comment.
If you are a new user, please register so you can post comments here.
[The first time you post a comment (after creating your user name and logging in), it will be held for approval. Please be patient (as it may take awhile). After your first comment has been approved, you will be able to post further comments instantly and automatically.]