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A Race For Second Place In The Democratic Field

[ Posted Tuesday, July 16th, 2019 – 17:23 UTC ]

As I continue to recover from my Netroots Nation trip, I thought I'd ease back into writing columns with another look at the Democratic horserace. Enough time has now passed from the first debate round that the polling has caught up to people's reactions, and the candidates have all just announced their second-quarter fundraising totals, so it seems like a good time to check in once again.

 

Campaign News

Astonishingly, since the last time we wrote a full rundown of the field (over a month ago), we've had some more movement into the race and the movement out of the race has also now begun.

Joe Sestak decided, for some unfathomable reason, that the Democratic field just wasn't quite wide enough, and so he threw his own hat into the already-crowded ring right before the first debates. The media barely noticed, which is what you get when you are a minor Democrat and wait until long after everyone else jumped in, I suppose. Sestak didn't qualify for the first debates, and chances are very good that he won't qualify for the second round of debates either, so this may be the last time I even have to type his name.

Billionaire Tom Steyer also decided that pushing from the sidelines for impeachment wasn't personally fulfilling enough, so he threw his own chapeau into the ring. Democrats weren't very impressed, although a number of them did express relief that Steyer chose to run for the Democratic nomination rather than threatening to launch an independent presidential campaign (which the Starbucks guy is still making noises about doing, by the way, even after firing all his "campaign" staff). Steyer's money means he'll be able to stay in the race as long as he wants, unlike most of the other candidates, so he may be around for awhile even if the voters don't flock to his banner.

Also, the second Democratic candidate of the election cycle has officially bowed out of the race, as Eric Swalwell decided that he had absolutely no chance of winning the nomination. Kudos to him for realizing this, which is a painful thing for any politician to do. He's likely to run for his House seat again and may have fractionally improved his chances for re-election with his quixotic presidential run.

This leaves the total field of all Democrats who are running or have run for president this time around at a whopping 27 candidates, which has to be a historical record. Two have now dropped out (Swalwell and Richard Ojeda), leaving the current field at 25. This means that five of them will not be appearing at the second debate round, since the total will be limited to 20 (10 each over two nights).

The big dropoff in the size of the field is going to happen around the third debate, though. Note the use of the singular, there -- "debate," because the criteria for entry will be raised and it is very likely that this will shrink the number on stage to single digits, meaning they can hold just one debate rather than having to split the field over two nights. Candidates who aren't doing well enough to make this debate will have to take a long, hard look at their viability, and the more realistic of them will conclude that it is time to exit the race. Also, over the next few weeks many of the minor candidates are going to be feeling a huge financial pinch, since most of them haven't raised even enough money to even continue to travel to Iowa and New Hampshire. So by the end of September, the Democratic field will likely become a lot more manageable.

The dynamic of the race has changed in a profound way as a result of the first debates. The candidates are beginning to take on each other, attacking the various plans and positions their rivals hold. Some of these attacks fall flat, and some of them have been more effective than expected. This jockeying is only going to continue for the foreseeable future, especially since so many candidates will see the second round of debates as their last chance to make any kind of impression on the voters. This jockeying has taken two forms -- minor candidates attacking all the frontrunners en masse, and the major players taking direct aim at each other.

 

First Tier

The first tier of candidates is now up to four, as Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris join Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders in the "above double digits" category. Warren had seen a polling rise that started in the weeks leading up to the first debate rounds, and Harris of course had the biggest breakout moment during either debate when she went after Joe Biden's past history.

Biden, however, cannot be counted out, as some are already doing (for some bizarre reason). He may have had a shaky moment during the first debates, but the era when one bad gaffe would kill a candidates' chances are over (Donald Trump proved this beyond a shadow of a doubt, in fact). This will help Biden over the course of the whole campaign, most likely.

Biden is still the clear frontrunner of the race, polling over 10 points higher than his closest competitors. That's still an enormous lead in such a crowded race, it bears mentioning. His lead is down from the heights he achieved right after he announced, but it is still daunting for all the other candidates. Biden is currently at a polling average (from Real Clear Politics) of 27.8 percent, which is down roughly five points since the debate. But once his numbers sank a bit, they then held at the lower level -- Biden isn't on a trendline that's still heading down, in other words, it has flattened out. Biden is still seen as the best chance Democrats have of beating Trump, a perception that is reinforced with every head-to-head poll that comes out -- all of which show Biden with a bigger lead over Trump than any other Democratic candidate. Biden also had a respectable second quarter, raising $21.5 million.

However, while Biden still remains firmly ensconced in front of the pack, there is now a real race for second place. Up until right before the first debates, Bernie Sanders had pretty much owned second place since the contest began. This is no longer true.

Here are the numbers for the three candidates currently vying for second: Bernie Sanders (15.0 percent), Elizabeth Warren (15.0), and Kamala Harris (13.4). Bernie dropped a few points after the debate, but then stabilized at the lower edge of the high-teens range he's been in since May. So his floor is still largely holding.

However, he's now being challenged by both Warren and Harris. Warren's trendline is a steady upward movement that began before the first debates, and she's currently tied with Bernie (after being up to over 16 percent a few days ago, which beat Bernie). Tellingly, Warren raised more money than Bernie in the second quarter as well. It was fairly close, but Warren raised $19 million to Bernie's $18 million. This is significant since the two are competing for the same ideological wing of the party. So progressive donors have a choice, and more of them ponied up for Warren than Sanders last time around.

Harris was the clear winner of the first debate round, as judged by polling before and afterwards. She saw a sharp upward spike and has mostly hung onto this newfound popularity. Harris has been neck and neck with both Bernie and Warren for second place, although she had a few disappointing polls in the past few days which slipped her slightly below where the other two now are. This, however, is likely just a statistical blip, so all three should be seen as essentially tied at the moment for who will be the one to directly take on Biden. Harris didn't have her breakout moment until far into the quarter, so while she was able to reap the benefits she only had a limited time to do so before the quarter ended. She raised $12 million -- less than Bernie and Warren, but still quite respectable.

The draw for the second debate will be important when it comes to sorting among the top four candidates. CNN has not said exactly how they will be choosing who appears on which night, although they are plugging the heck out of their "live draw" event this week, so if you're that big a wonk you can tune in to see how the selection process goes.

 

Second Tier

Choosing the second tier is kind of tough, because it's hard to know where to really draw the line. We could draw it above two percent in the polls, but this would only mean two candidates would qualify. So in the spirit of the second debate, we're going to instead draw the line at only one percent, which lets in a bigger second-tier pack.

The two that are unquestionably leading the second tier are Pete Buttigieg and Beto O'Rourke, both of whom are polling above two percent (4.8 percent for Mayor Pete and 2.6 percent for Beto).

Both of these candidates have been somewhat of a disappointment for their hardcore supporters, because both of them have seen fairly impressive announcement bumps in the polling fade slowly away over time, as they both have failed to generate the excitement that some predicted they would.

Buttigieg has been sliding for a while, and the debates did nothing to arrest this, even though his debate performance was widely seen as one of the better ones. However, he does deserve credit for one astonishing achievement, since he outraised the entire rest of the field last quarter, pulling in a whopping $24.8 million. That's over three million bucks more than Joe Biden managed to raise, which is rather astonishing considering his low polling and his fifth-place standing. Buttigieg's average in the polls sank to under five percent during this period, which is a worrisome trend indeed. Money alone doesn't win campaigns -- the candidate has to do that, no matter how well financed. Having that huge a pot of money will almost guarantee that Buttigieg will be able to compete strongly in the first four states, though, and it may be enough to propel him through Super Tuesday as well. But until his polling improves significantly, he has to be seen as leading the second tier rather than in the mix with the frontrunners.

Beto O'Rourke also caught fire very early on only to fade as time goes on. His slide is even more pronounced than Buttigieg's, and his fundraising sank to a dangerously low level last quarter, as O'Rourke only raised $3.6 million. All those Democratic donors who shovelled money into his Senate bid against Ted Cruz have mostly turned out to be fickle in their loyalty, and their money has shifted to other presidential candidates. At his current 2.6 percent in the polls, Beto will likely still make it into the third debate, but only barely.

There are five others in the second tier, all polling below two percent. They are: Cory Booker (1.6 percent), Andrew Yang (1.6), Tulsi Gabbard (1.4), Amy Klobuchar (1.0), and Julián Castro (1.0). Of this pack, only three raised a significant amount of money in the third quarter, with Booker pulling in the most at $4.5 million (more than Beto managed, please note), Amy Klobuchar raising $3.9 million (also more than Beto), and Andrew Yang raking in $2.8 million.

Booker, like Beto and Mayor Pete, has seen a slow downward slide to his polling numbers, but it hasn't been as pronounced as the other two -- for the simple reason that his announcement spike never got anywhere near the level the other two managed. He didn't go up as far, so he had less room to fall, in other words. But his polling used to be in the range that Buttigieg and O'Rourke are now in.

Julián Castro had a solid debate performance, but so far this hasn't translated into actual voter support. Amy Klobuchar still has some loyal donors, but she also has failed to rise much.

The fight among the second tier is going to get brutal in the second debates, as these are the only candidates with any real hope of generating enough support to survive to the third debate, at least at the moment. So these are the seven candidates who will be striving the hardest to make a good impression at the end of the month when they all gather to debate again.

 

Third Tier

Even with drawing very lax criteria for the second tier, we still wind up with a whopping 14 candidates running for last place. This pack includes several politicians with prominent jobs (U.S. senator or governor) who have failed to make any sort of name for themselves as possible presidential contenders. A few of them had some interesting debate performances, but it didn't budge their numbers at all. All 14 candidates (which I'm not even going to bother listing, see Wikipedia for the full list, if you wish) are now polling below a single percentage point, and some of them are polling at zero percent (some polls don't even bother listing all of them, which contributes to this effect).

Only three of them had marginally impressive second quarter fundraising worth noting: Jay Inslee raised $3 million, Michael Bennet was close behind with $2.8 million, and Kirsten Gillibrand raised $2.3 million.

One can only hope that a second disappointing debate cycle for these candidates causes a large number of them to reassess their chances and face the reality that they are simply not who the Democratic Party is looking for to take on Donald Trump.

 

Conclusions

As it's still fairly early in the calendar, we don't have a lot of solid conclusions to draw quite yet. One general conclusion is that a really standout debate performance can indeed be capitalized upon in the polling, as Kamala Harris proved. But it's no guarantee -- others turned in fairly solid debate performances without seeing any spike in the polls afterwards.

Because Harris gained her newfound prominence in the race by taking on Joe Biden directly, this will probably spur other Democrats to attempt the same thing in the second debates. This will be largely limited to those on stage with Biden, however, so the results of the draft will be important. Attacking Biden without him standing there ready to respond isn't going to resonate the way the Harris/Biden dustup did, in other words.

This holds true for both the minor candidates desperate for attention and the frontrunners chasing Biden, it should be noted. Of particular interest will be which of those tied for second right now (Harris, Sanders, and Warren) will appear with him on the same debate night. All three are looking to break away from the other two and be anointed the sole second place candidate in the race. All of them have been signaling to some extent that they are going to make the attempt to take Biden down a peg or two in the second debate go-round.

Biden may be more aggressive in the second debates, after disappointing so many with his responses in the first. He now knows beyond the shadow of a doubt that he has a big fat target painted on him and that he is the one all the other candidates will be looking to beat. So he may be a whole different Biden in the second debates as a result. It wouldn't surprise me if he is feistier and more willing to punch back at his fellow Democrats next time around.

Biden, however much he's been maligned in the press since the debates, is still firmly holding onto first place. This will likely remain true as long as he continues to dominate the head-to-head polling against Trump. If the voters see Biden as their best chance of taking the White House away from Trump, then they'll continue to get behind Biden, whether he is a perfect match of these voters' ideologies or not. Winning is the most important thing this time around, not which Democrat manages to do so. And Biden is still reaping the rewards of the perception that he is indeed the best shot the Democrats will have in 2020 of beating Donald Trump. Unless the other candidates manage to raise questions among the primary electorate in this regard, my guess is that Biden will continue to hold this lead.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

67 Comments on “A Race For Second Place In The Democratic Field”

  1. [1] 
    Paula wrote:

    Someone I know saw Joe Biden on Morning Joe today or yesterday being interviewed by Mika B. He said Joe appeared to be sundowning - looked like the interview had been taped from later in the previous day. He said Joe was confused at points, couldn't find words etc. I didn't see it so don't know.

    I don't want JB to be the nominee but I also don't particularly want to see him embarrassed, etc. I've seen moments here and there where I thought Joe was not looking well/all there - but they were brief. I guess if he's really starting that sort of decline we'll probably see it. There's still months of slogging ahead and multiple debates and as the front-runner he's going to be under a lot of pressure.

    We'll see.

  2. [2] 
    Balthasar wrote:

    Funny. I saw that interview, and thought that it went fine. Oh well, the race is on.

    What Michale doesn't understand is that even if the nominee is Mr. Potatohead, democrats will get behind and vote for him/her.

    So sorry, all of your vile racism is for naught.

  3. [3] 
    Michale wrote:

    What Michale doesn't understand is that even if the nominee is Mr. Potatohead, democrats will get behind and vote for him/her.

    Since I have this space in your head, do you mind if I redecorate?? It's pretty drab and life-less in here.. :D

    What YOU don't understand is that it DOESN'T matter one whit if Democrats get behind him or her and vote for him or her..

    Him or her will need to attract Independents and NPAs **AND** Trump Voters to win..

    And THAT is simply an impossibility, considering the stances and position that ALL the candidates have taken..

    So, you lose.. THEY lose.. The entire Democrat/Incest Party loses..

    And America wins.. :D

    So sorry, all of your vile racism is for naught.

    What racism would that be?? Can you point it out???

    No, you can't.. Because it only exists in your head..

  4. [4] 
    Michale wrote:

    Somebody want to tell me again that Republicans are condemning President Trump??

    Tell me AGAIN how President Trump's support is waning??

    Because, it's funny...

    Republican support for Trump rises after racially charged tweets: Reuters/Ipsos poll
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-poll/republican-support-for-trump-rises-after-racially-charged-tweets-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKCN1UB2UD

    All the FACTS seem to indicate the opposite?? :D

  5. [5] 
    Michale wrote:

    Looks like Occasional Cortex is going to get to have to fight for her seat.. :D

    Ocasio-Cortez gets new 2020 challenger: a Republican immigrant from Jamaica

    EXCLUSIVE -- Scherie Murray, a New York businesswoman who immigrated from Jamaica as a child and is active in state Republican politics, is launching a campaign Wednesday for the congressional seat held by Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Fox News has learned.

    In a phone interview, Murray, 38, confirmed her intention to run for the New York congressional seat as a Republican.

    “There is a crisis in Queens, and it’s called AOC,” Murray told Fox News. “And instead of focusing on us, she’s focusing on being famous. Mainly rolling back progress and authoring the job-killing Green New Deal and killing the Amazon New York deal.”

    Murray, who was born in Jamaica and moved to the United States when she was 9, is officially launching her campaign Wednesday with an introductory video that takes sharp jabs at the 29-year-old Ocasio-Cortez.
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ocasio-cortez-gets-new-2020-challenger

    And anyone who doesn't support this candidate is nothing but a misogynist racist...

  6. [6] 
    Michale wrote:

    Looks like Trump has more work to do to unify the Democrat Party..

    'The Squad' revives feud with Pelosi: Be aware when you 'single us out' that we're 'women of color'
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/the-squad-revives-their-feud-with-pelosi-be-aware-when-you-single-us-out-that-were-women-of-color

    So.. Being women of "color" somehow makes them special???

    Makes them bitches, maybe... Special?? Not so much...

  7. [7] 
    Michale wrote:

    Funny thing about the word "bitch"..

    It has a lot of different meanings and usages..

    one of the most versatile words in the english language; it is used to express a multitude of emotions; anger, anticipation, despair, endearment, envy, excitement, fear, horror, joy, shock, surprise, warning; all achieved by one's enunciation and intonation.
    Endearment: Hey bitch!
    Joy: Oh my god, bitch!
    Anticipation: Bitch, guess what?
    Shock/Pain: Stubs toe Ah, bitch!
    Envy: She's SUCH a BITCH.
    Fear: Bitch. What was that noise?
    Surprise: BITCH!
    Warning: Bitch. Don't try me.
    Despair: Biiiitch.

    Not a SINGLE thing to do with race or racism...

    Unless, of course, yer part of the Democrat/Incest/Racist Party..

    Then EVERYTHING has EVERYTHING to do with race and racism..

    This definition applies to my current usage of the word "bitch"..

    A bitch is just a bully in a skirt.
    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=bitch

    So, "bitch" certainly applies to these 4 Congresscritters, because that's all they are.. Bullies.. Foul-mouthed and disgusting and perverted America hating bullies..

    In other words, bitches...

  8. [8] 
    Michale wrote:

    Donald Trump’s stupid smart attack on ‘the Squad’

    All he needs to do is push the Democrats left of the American mainstream
    https://spectator.us/trump-stupid-smart-attack-squad/

    This is the beauty of President Trump's play...

    If it's successful, it unites the Democrat Party around the far FAR Left "squad"....

    If it's NOT successful, it's STILL successful, because it opens up the fissures of hate within the Democrat Party to MORE public scrutiny...

    So, even when President Trump loses, he wins!!

    THAT is genius.. To devise a plan over and over and over again, that is WIN-WIN..

    No matter WHAT the Democrats do or don't do, President Trump (and the American people incidentally) STILL win...

    Amazing... Uncanny... Genius...

  9. [9] 
    Michale wrote:

    In Face Of Massive Border Crisis, Democrats Tell Americans Citizenship Means Nothing

    A left-wing mob tore down an American flag and replaced it with a Mexican flag. A gunman attacked an ICE facility. Democrats said nothing.

    A series of remarkable things happened over the weekend—all of them overshadowed by unfortunate tweets from President Trump and the hysterical overreactions they provoked. But these overshadowed events tell us much more about the state of the country than the controversy over Trump’s tweets, and what they reveal isn’t good.

    On Friday night, a mob of protestors tore down an American flag outside a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement facility in Aurora, Colo., and replaced it with a Mexican flag. Local police stood by and did nothing.

    The next day, a gunman reportedly associated with Antifa attacked an ICE detention center in Tacoma, Wash., throwing Molotov cocktails and attempting to set fire to a propane tank. He was reportedly killed by police in a gunfight.

    The attack in Tacoma coincided with left-wing protests at ICE facilities all over the country, prompted by nationwide ICE raids targeting Central American families whom immigration judges have ordered to be deported after reviewing their claims.
    https://thefederalist.com/2019/07/16/face-massive-border-crisis-democrats-tell-americans-citizenship-means-nothing/

    Remind me again how Democrats are NOT America hating terrorist scumbags???

    I seem to have forgotten what with all the FACTS to the contrary???

  10. [10] 
    Michale wrote:

    This is CNN? Network apparently recently glorified ICE detention center attacker

    The self-proclaimed Antifa militant who was killed Saturday by Washington state police as he attacked a local Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention center was seen in a recent CNN program that critics say glorified a radical, left-wing movement.

    Willem Van Spronsen, 69, sent a manifesto to friends the day before the assault in which he wrote, "I am Antifa," and now he is lionized by members of the leftwing group as a "martyr."

    He also appears to have been part of a May 5 episode of CNN’s “United Shades of America” with W. Kamau Bell.

    The heavily promoted CNN show featured Bell explaining the “Redneck Revolt,” which he identified as gun-toting liberals who defend the Second Amendment and seek to battle the “alt-right” and neo-Nazis.

    Bell called them “good guys,” going to a gun range with members and even questioning why “more white people” don’t share their viewpoints.

    One of the men featured on the CNN special appears to be Van Spronsen -- who was armed with a rifle and incendiary devices when he launched his assault on the Northwest Detention Center in Tacoma around 4 a.m. Saturday, according to the Tacoma Police Department.
    https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/cnn-antifa-ice-glorified

    Where is the condemnation of this terrorist attack by the Democrat Party's militant wing, AntiFa???

    Non-existent..

    Ya'all claim to hate violence yet don't seem to mind it when it's against the "RIGHT" people.. :^/

    Willem Van Spronsen, 69, sent a manifesto to friends the day before the assault in which he wrote, "I am Antifa," and now he is lionized by members of the leftwing group as a "martyr."

    Just like the AntiFa member who was killed in Charlottesville..

  11. [11] 
    Michale wrote:

    ‘Don’t open the door,’ immigrants are warned as family deportation roundup continues

    Reporting from Houston — More than a hundred immigrants, mostly Central American families, were detained in a handful of states through the weekend in a federal effort to deport those who recently entered the country and stayed illegally, according to officials and advocates.

    As part of the operation, 121 people were taken into custody -- primarily in Georgia, North Carolina and Texas -- and are being processed for deportation.

    Advocates said immigrants were also detained in Maryland, New York and the Midwest, but immigration officials said those may be unrelated or not immigration-enforcement actions. Areas targeted for the sweeps appear to be among those with the highest number of immigrants who have been ordered deported, advocates said.

    “This should come as no surprise,” President Trump said of the roundup. “I have said publicly for months that individuals who constitute enforcement priorities, including families and unaccompanied children, will be removed.”

    What part of ILLEGAL immigrant criminals is unclear to ya'all??

  12. [12] 
    Michale wrote:

    Remember how Democrats and Trump/America haters ( I know.. That's redundant) said that President Trump's gambit with tariffs and Mexico would never work??

    Trump's immigration deal with Mexico is working

    After just four weeks, though, we now have concrete proof that Trump knew what he was doing all along. Thanks to Mexico’s deployment of National Guard troops to intercept migrants on their way to the U.S. border, the number of illegal immigrants apprehended at the border declined significantly in June after remaining at abnormally high levels throughout the first half of the year. According to the latest figures from Homeland Security, the number of border apprehensions declined from 132,880 in May to 94,897 in June, a 29% drop in the space of just a few weeks. The improvement was even more dramatic for family units and unaccompanied minors, two categories that have accounted for an unusually large share of the recent flood of illegal immigrants.

    Meanwhile, the expanded “Remain in Mexico” policy that was put in place under the agreement is easing the pressure on our immigration enforcement agencies, which have been overwhelmed by the sheer number of people caught illegally crossing the border.

    Before Trump negotiated the deal with Mexico, Homeland Security had to release more than 1,200 illegal immigrants into the U.S. interior every single day because Congress had not allocated enough resources to process and care for the huge number of detainees in custody. Now that asylum-seekers have to wait in Mexico until their cases are adjudicated, rather than being released into American communities to await their hearings, fewer than 200 illegal immigrants are being released each day, an 85% decrease.

    In truth, the Democrats have only themselves to blame for underestimating Trump’s border security deal with Mexico. Their radicalism clouded their judgment, just as it has throughout the Trump presidency, and they’ve offered no indication that they’re ready to start accepting reality any time soon.
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/trumps-immigration-deal-with-mexico-is-working

    Once again.. The FACTS on the ground paint a completely different picture..

    Once again.. President Trump rules... Democrats drool... :D

  13. [13] 
    Michale wrote:

    Threats against members increasing, Capitol Police chief says

    Rep. Bennie Thompson calls for police to reexamine safety following Trump attacks on Democrats

    House Homeland Security Chairman Bennie Thompson sent a letter to Senate Sergeant-at-Arms Michael C. Stenger, who chairs the Capitol Police Board. The Mississippi Democrat requested Stenger to hold an emergency meeting to reexamine the board’s approach to analyzing the risk environment, setting thresholds for enhanced security for certain targeted members and evaluating threat streams with law enforcement partners in member districts.

    “On Sunday, July 14, 2019, President Trump used social media to directly attack four members of Congress,” Thompson wrote. “To date, Trump continues to use social media to vilify these four members.”

    Thompson also pointed out that “the president’s rhetoric may insinuate more attacks on members of Congress.”
    https://www.rollcall.com/news/congress/threats-against-members-increasing-capitol-police-chief-sund-says

    Of course, this Democrat scumbag ignores all the times that members of Congress has used social media to vilify and attack President Trump and President Trump's family in the most profane, perverse and disgusting manner..

    One is left to wonder how many threats do DEMOCRATS cause against President Trump and the First Family??

    Hay Thompson.. How about telling BOTH sides of the story? ASS....

  14. [14] 
    Michale wrote:

    Lest ya'all believe I CAN'T be on-topic.. :D

    He may have had a shaky moment during the first debates, but the era when one bad gaffe would kill a candidates' chances are over (Donald Trump proved this beyond a shadow of a doubt, in fact).

    I know Donald Trump. Donald Trump is a friend of mine. Joe Biden is no Donald Trump.. :D

    You are making the mistake that what applies to President Trump applies to all candidates..

    You are in error.. :D

    However, while Biden still remains firmly ensconced in front of the pack, there is now a real race for second place. Up until right before the first debates, Bernie Sanders had pretty much owned second place since the contest began. This is no longer true.

    Sanders is Bern'ed out... You can stick a fork in him. He's done..

    The two that are unquestionably leading the second tier are Pete Buttigieg and Beto O'Rourke, both of whom are polling above two percent (4.8 percent for Mayor Pete and 2.6 percent for Beto).

    Beto poll'ed *0%* in New Hampshire...

    "{Beto} is gone. There is no {Beto}."
    -Captain 'Smilin' Jack Ross, A FEW GOOD MEN

    Booker, like Beto and Mayor Pete, has seen a slow downward slide to his polling numbers,

    Likely because of his faux-outrage over Biden's innocent comments..

    Harris faked outrage MUCH BETTER than Booker did..

    Attacking Biden without him standing there ready to respond isn't going to resonate the way the Harris/Biden dustup did, in other words.

    And would actually be kinda a chicken-shit thing to do...

    Which is why I fully expect that Dem candidates will stoop to it..

    It wouldn't surprise me if he is feistier and more willing to punch back at his fellow Democrats next time around.

    But... But.... But...

    We are able to have differing opinions on how we best solve problems without having to resort to name calling and insults.

    :D

    Biden, however much he's been maligned in the press since the debates, is still firmly holding onto first place. This will likely remain true as long as he continues to dominate the head-to-head polling against Trump. If the voters see Biden as their best chance of taking the White House away from Trump, then they'll continue to get behind Biden, whether he is a perfect match of these voters' ideologies or not.

    Won't happen..

    Party purity is reasserting itself as the Number #1 priority for the Dem Party candidate..

    Biden just doesn't fit the Party Purity mode..

    Unless the other candidates manage to raise questions among the primary electorate in this regard, my guess is that Biden will continue to hold this lead.

    Questions are already being raised about Biden's "electability"... Hay, don't kill the messenger.. These are DEMOCRATS who are raising these questions..

    :D

    Did ya ever think, in your wildest dreams, that you would have to assess the viability of **TWENTY SEVEN** different Democrat Presidential candidates??? :D

  15. [15] 
    Michale wrote:

    Trump’s harsh attacks produce the debate he wants, on Socialist Democrats

    House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said yesterday he does not believe the Trump attacks are racist. “I believe this is about ideology. … This is all about politics,” he said.

    Newt Gingrich said Trump believes “the more he can get the country to look at the so-called squad, the more he can get them to realize how radical they are, and how fundamentally anti-American their views are; in the long run, the better off he is.”

    Maryland GOP congressman Andy Harris said the tweets are “obviously not racist,” but “when anyone disagrees with someone now, the default is you call them a racist and this is no exception.”

    He said Trump “could’ve meant go back to the district that they came from or the neighborhood they came from,” though the president has specifically talked about Ilhan Omar and Somalia.

    Fox News’ Jesse Watters said while his mother views the tweets as racist, “Mom’s not going to scare me off. These were not racist. This was about patriotism. When did ‘Love it or leave it?’ become racist? Not only leave it, hey, come back and help us fix our problems.”

    And the president himself tweeted yesterday that “I don’t have a Racist bone in my body!”, adding: “The Democrat Congresswomen have been spewing some of the most vile, hateful, and disgusting things ever said by a politician in the House or Senate, & yet they get a free pass and a big embrace from the Democrat Party. … Why isn’t the House voting to rebuke the filthy and hate laced things they have said?”

    What the Republican Party now wants—or is forced to want, since most members believe it’s political suicide to take on Trump—is to blur the debate.

    In this view, it’s not about Trump saying the women should “go back” to where they came from before returning, it’s about the left-wing extremism of AOC, Omar, Ayanna Pressley and Rashida Tlaib.

    This, I believe, was Trump’s strategy all along, to create enough of a firestorm that they become the face of the Democratic Party and his own initial attacks become beside the point.

    That’s what Lindsey Graham did in mildly suggesting that his golfing buddy “aim higher” while trashing the freshmen: “We all know that AOC and this crowd are a bunch of communists. They hate Israel, they hate our own country.”
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trumps-harsh-attacks-produce-the-debate-he-wants-on-socialist-democrats

    Yep.. That was President Trump's plan all along..

    Make the socialist bitches the FACE of the Democrat Party..

    Prior to President Trumps AMERICA LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT tweets, the Democrat Party was rallying around Nancy Pelosi and condemning the racist socialist America Hating Israel Hating bitches..

    NOW the entirety of the Democrat Party INCLUDING Pelosi, is rallying around the racist socialist "squad"...

    President Trump's plan worked flawlessly..

    And, as Captain Ed Mercer points out:

    "We (Democrats) ALWAYS fall for it"

    Hooked 'em good, Mr President!!! Now reel them in..

    "Roger, and I'll clean 'em and fry 'em Yeeeehaaawwww!!"
    -Goose, TOP GUN

    :D

  16. [16] 
    Michale wrote:

    HAMMER: How Hard Can It Possibly Be For Democrats To Denounce Antifa?

    If an elected Republican refused to properly condemn a vile group of domestic terrorists that bears the faintest trace of purported relation to the political Right, one is left to ponder just how scathing and pervasive the media onslaught against the elected official would be.
    Actually, one is not left to merely ponder. Just ask President Donald Trump how the media treated him after his initially lukewarm, generic condemnation of the fatal white nationalist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia in August 2017.

    There is no reason whatsoever why the situation ought to be any different for an elected Democrat who refuses to properly condemn a vile group of domestic terrorists that bears more than a faint trace of relation to fringe swaths of the political Left. But for the Democrats' new "It" girl, radical socialist and Jew-hatred apologist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) — the John Lennon of the America-hating "Squad" who promotes outrageous Nazi comparisons in lieu of dulcet utopian songwriting — the normal rules seem to infrequently apply.
    https://www.dailywire.com/news/49569/hammer-how-hard-can-it-possibly-be-democrats-josh-hammer

    Sad how we can't get ANY condemnation from AntiFa's terrorism from ANY Democrat...

    Why is that??

  17. [17] 
    Michale wrote:

    The Left's Broad, Bigoted Politics of Vilification

    The iconic late poet Maya Angelou once said, “When people show you who they are, believe them.” That simple advice seems especially relevant regarding the American left in 2019. Both politicians and activists of the Democratic media complex scurry to charge racism against President Trump and our nationalist movement, when in reality they themselves employ brutally divisive political strategies buttressed by their own increasingly bigoted thinking.

    For example, I appeared on CNN Monday night to discuss the firestorm over the president’s caustic tweets last weekend criticizing the four most progressive members of the House of Representatives. I deemed the tweets illogical and shrill, and said so on Twitter and on Anderson Cooper’s show. I also pointed out that the overreaction from Democratic politicians and their media allies revealed a hysterical attempt to castigate the president as prejudiced. I cited the incredibly incendiary accusation of my CNN colleague Wajahat Ali who retweeted an article and its headline: “Trump is a racist. If you still support him, so are you.”
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/07/17/the_lefts_broad_bigoted_politics_of_vilification_140798.html

    It's the Left who is racist and bigoted...

  18. [18] 
    Michale wrote:

    The Trump Steamroller

    As he piles up successes (and gaffes), the Democrats implode
    As we settle into high summer and the period of maximum difficulty in finding anything to fill in hours of television news, especially 24/7 news television, two well-established political trends are emerging in this pre-electoral period: The president’s opponents continue to dig themselves into foxholes that they will not be able to escape, and the president’s tactical victories continue to be compromised by his verbal sloppiness. In completely nonpartisan terms, both phenomena are disappointing. The process of the president’s leaving verbal lapses for his enemies to exploit, and of the Democrats and national media doing so excessively, is more complicated than it seems. The initial shock at the success of this blunt and volcanic man who attacked all factions of both parties and assaulted almost every element of OBushinton political correctness and conventional wisdom, whose inaugural address was described at once by George W. Bush to Hillary Clinton as “some weird s***,” has mutated into a fear that Trump presages a Dark Age of dictatorship, official thuggery, and oppressive know-nothingism.

    They are failing to make the distinction between Trump’s policies and his mannerisms. No serious person can dispute the president’s economic successes (especially the virtual elimination of unemployment and energy imports), his revival of a viable policy of nuclear nonproliferation, taking serious measures to stop mass illegal immigration, moving decisively to address dangerous disadvantages in some trading relationships, and shaping up the Western alliance from an association of freeloading beneficiaries of an American military guaranty. He is the first businessman to be president, and he engaged in a policy form of zero-based budgeting. The underlying premise for climate policy is unproved and almost certainly largely false; he scrapped it. The notion that the U.S. performed a service for international development and world harmonization by allowing the Mexicans, Chinese, and others to pick America’s pockets and export unemployment to the United States was false. He is scrapping that. The idea, cherished by Democratic politicians and Republican employers of low-skilled workers, that masses of people could swarm into the country undocumented, be exploited in the labor market, and not be counted anywhere, but still vote (Democratic) and use the welfare and education systems is an outrage. Trump is scrapping that, too. The country is tired of spending billions more every year on education to destroy freedom of expression in the university and produce ever-less-well-educated students in the unionized state school systems. He is attacking those problems, too.

    The enemies of the status quo that Trump was attacking in 2016 were barely numerous enough to put him in the White House, but the number of those who are starting to appreciate the progress that is being achieved in critical policy areas is growing. Last week I wrote that the Democrats, who had been counting on the fatuity of treasonous Trump–Russia collusion, were now reduced to snobbery and myth-making, since they had no substantive arguments to make. That is true, but not the whole truth. Tens of millions of people in both parties loved the OBushinton declinism, both the randomly militaristic version of George W. Bush and the feckless cult of national self-doubt of Obama. It worked for them, and since it was a bipartisan arrangement, they had no idea how vulnerable it was. The Trump victory and his success in office have profoundly shaken those dependent on the sluggish, state-dependent ethos that gradually took hold between the Reagan and Trump presidencies, and have won Trump a creeping rise in the polls. The confidence that he could be evicted from office, if not in midterm, at least after one term, is evaporating; the fear and hostility of his enemies (and most of them are enemies, not merely opponents) is genuine, if not creditable, and it drives them to their own extremes of hyperbole.
    https://tinyurl.com/y5mlkh6u

    This is the point that Democrats and Trump/America haters can't fathom...

    Despite his uncouth and brash and arrogant persona, President Trump gets things done.. Things that are GOOD for the country...

    I would respect the argument of the Trump/America haters a lot more if they were more in tune with reality..

    Condemn the bad and acknowledge the good..

    But they can't.. They are mere caricatures of political operators...

    Shrill and monotonous, they are fast becoming irrelevant..

  19. [19] 
    Michale wrote:

    Democrats Are One Hundred Percent Wrong about Racism

    To say that the Democrats are obsessed with race these days is the equivalent of saying the sky is blue.

    I'm a racist. You're a racist. Donald Trump's a racist. Nancy Pelosi was a racist until she attacked Trump for racism. Your neighbor's a racist. Your insurance broker's a racist. Your dentist's a racist as well as your periodontist. All white males are racist. Some white females are racists, especially those married to white males. Everywhere a racist.

    Never mind that many of those people have no history of racism. It doesn't matter. Never mind that their families came here in 1923 to flee the Armenian Holocaust or mass starvation in Ukraine, they owe reparations for slavery. It's all about racism—yours.

    The Dems' presidential campaigns are based around proving the other man or woman is more of a racist and vice versa, or about showing you're not so racist as people say you are, even if you are or even if you pretended to be a race you weren't. And don't you dare criticize Ilhan Omar or you're a triple-racist even if her ideas are more racist than anyone else's. Got it?
    https://pjmedia.com/rogerlsimon/democrats-one-hundred-percent-wrong-about-racism/

    To Democrats, everyone and everything is racist..

    And if everything and everyone is racist then NOTHING and NO ONE is racist..

  20. [20] 
    Michale wrote:

    They just killed my son again: Eric Garner’s mother Gwen Carr says the Department of Justice has failed her family

    Five years ago, my son said “I can’t breathe” 11 times as officers placed him in a banned chokehold and killed him. After patiently waiting, following the rules, hoping for accountability and closure, we now learn that the Department of Justice has decided not to bring federal charges against Officer Daniel Pantaleo.

    The DOJ has killed Eric all over again, and today we are the ones who are finding it difficult to breathe.
    https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-they-just-killed-my-son-again-20190717-vmjrnmhzdncefpffyy3xeau3wq-story.html

    With sincere condolences, ma'am, I must point out that the DOJ nor the NYPD killed your son..

    Your son died because he was obese and resisted a legal and lawful arrest...

    I am sure the 5.9 million dollars you got from New York City makes things easier for you to handle...

  21. [21] 
    Michale wrote:

    Remember yesterday, Neil spewed some bullshit about how the FBI found Christopher Steele "believable"??

    Neil, of course, would not substantiate his claims at all..

    Now we know why..

    Because they claims came from "anonymous sources" at WaPoop and Politico...

    But NOW we know the FACTS...

    FBI's spreadsheet puts a stake through the heart of Steele's dossier
    https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/453384-fbis-spreadsheet-puts-a-stake-through-the-heart-of-steeles-dossier

    NOW we know that Steele is a scumbag liar and not a single solitary RELEVANT portion of his "dossier" was validated...

    So, as usual.. Neil spews hysterical bullshit and refuses to source it or substantiate it..

    And I have the FACTS...

    "And so it goes... And so it goes..
    And so will you soon I suppose...."

    -Billy Joel

    :D

  22. [22] 
    Michale wrote:

    The Man Who Fell to Earth

    Joe Biden hoped to guard his frontrunner status and stay above the 2020 campaign fray. Now he'll have to run to keep up with the pack.

    For most of this year, Joe Biden has strutted across stages in New Hampshire and Iowa, and at swanky fundraisers in New York and California, as if he were already the Democratic nominee. Questions about attacks from his rivals were, more often than not, met with a toothy grin—and a politician’s version of “I don’t know her.” Biden was employing a Rose Garden strategy, albeit without anything even resembling a Rose Garden. He was the frontrunner and he knew it. All he had to do, it seemed, was project confidence and calm and the delegates would fall into his lap.

    That strategy blew up in the first Democratic debate, when Senator Kamala Harris tore into Biden’s shameful history on school integration. Targeting—and personalizing—Biden’s controversial record, Harris exposed the sizable baggage the former vice president was lugging around. Highlighting Biden’s work with Democratic segregationists in the Senate, Harris zeroed in on busing, which the then-senator opposed (at least in its court-ordered form) in the 1970s. “There was a little girl in California who was part of the second class to integrate her public schools and was bused to school every day. And that little girl was me,” Harris said. Biden responded like a deer in headlights, as if he was surprised to be criticized while running for president.
    https://newrepublic.com/article/154484/biden-losing-2020-frontrunner-status

    As I said... Democrats are questioning Biden's viability..

    Don't kill the messenger.. :D

  23. [23] 
    Michale wrote:

    ‘Trump’s Going to Get Re-elected, Isn’t He?’

    Voters have reason to worry.

    Patriotic Americans have reason to celebrate.. :D

    I’m struck at how many people have come up to me recently and said, “Trump’s going to get re-elected, isn’t he?” And in each case, when I drilled down to ask why, I bumped into the Democratic presidential debates in June. I think a lot of Americans were shocked by some of the things they heard there. I was.

    I was shocked that so many candidates in the party whose nominee I was planning to support want to get rid of the private health insurance covering some 250 million Americans and have “Medicare for all” instead. I think we should strengthen Obamacare and eventually add a public option.

    I was shocked that so many were ready to decriminalize illegal entry into our country. I think people should have to ring the doorbell before they enter my house or my country.

    I was shocked at all those hands raised in support of providing comprehensive health coverage to undocumented immigrants. I think promises we’ve made to our fellow Americans should take priority, like to veterans in need of better health care.

    Yep.. exactly... The Dem candidates all support positions that are completely anathema to everyday Americans.. And they did so in such a public and unequivocal manner that there is no back-pedaling or flip-flopping in the General..

    They are toast in the General..

    Dear Democrats: This is not complicated! Just nominate a decent, sane person, one committed to reunifying the country and creating more good jobs, a person who can gain the support of the independents, moderate Republicans and suburban women who abandoned Donald Trump in the midterms and thus swung the House of Representatives to the Democrats and could do the same for the presidency. And that candidate can win!

    But please, spare me the revolution! It can wait. Win the presidency, hold the House and narrow the spread in the Senate, and a lot of good things still can be accomplished. “No,” you say, “the left wants a revolution now!” O.K., I’ll give the left a revolution now: four more years of Donald Trump.

    Yep, exactly...

    Democrats are their own worst enemies...

    As I have said.. The BEST course of action would be for Democrats to concede 2020 to President Trump and prepare for 2024 where they won't have to face President Trump.. They face Vice President Pence.. :D

  24. [24] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    It's bad enough that Democrats will vote for big money corporate candidates- but Mr. Potatohead?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v-teRaRJRBvq0

  25. [25] 
    Don Harris wrote:
  26. [26] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    That really is the Dems strategy- Go back to sleep.

  27. [27] 
    Michale wrote:

    It's bad enough that Democrats will vote for big money corporate candidates- but Mr. Potatohead?

    Democrats would vote for a cross of Adolph Hitler and Joseph Stalin just to make sure President Trump would lose..

    That tells you all you need to know about Democrats...

    They value winning above all else.. Except Party Purity..

    And to them, Adolph Stalin is pure enough for the Democrat Party...

  28. [28] 
    Michale wrote:

    GUARDIANS OF A FALLACY

    Chris Pratt called a 'white supremacist' over Gadsden flag T-shirt
    https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/chris-pratt-gadsden-flag-white-supremacist-reaction

    This is why it's IMPOSSIBLE to take Democrats and Trump/America haters seriously...

  29. [29] 
    TheStig wrote:

    CW-

    It's great to have you back in near real time! My morning coffee doesn't taste as good without a freshly brewed CW.com column.

    I think it's worth pointing out that while "Traditionalist Democrat" Biden polls a far higher percentage (27.8%) than any of his three nearest rivals, the combined total of the 3 strongest "Socially Progressive Democrats" E. Warren, K.Harris and B. Sanders is 43.3%, with each claiming roughly 1/3 of this block.

    There is clearly a strong progressive wing this cycle, but unless two of candidates from the above triad can unite around the strongest, Biden ought to be able to tack a bit more progressive and wrap this thing up. Biden being famously gaffe prone, (and the press being more than willing to point this out) I could see this not happening, and the resulting brawl among progressives resulting in the worst case outcome of President For Life Trump on electoral college points.

    One casual comment is this column bothered just me a bit. "This, however, is likely just a statistical blip." Yes, but statistical inference is all about dealing with blips. If there aren't any blips, you don't have any uncertainty and their is no need inferential statistics.

  30. [30] 
    Michale wrote:

    19 MS-13 gang members indicted in 'medieval-style' California slayings were in country illegally, officials say
    https://www.foxnews.com/us/ms-13-gang-members-indicted-california-slayings-illegal-immigrants-killings

    Democrats LOVE illegal immigrants.. They are hard working GOOD people just looking for a better life.. :eyeroll:

  31. [31] 
    Michale wrote:

    How the Democratic Netroots Died

    Only 15 years ago, liberal bloggers like Markos Moulitsas were a powerful force in presidential politics. What happened?

    Twelve years ago, progressive political bloggers were so influential that nearly every 2008 Democratic presidential candidate attended the Yearly Kos convention—a gathering of liberal online activists named after Markos Moulitsas’ popular Daily Kos website.

    This year, that same event, now called Netroots Nation, attracted a measly four of the 24 Democratic candidates. Only one of them, Elizabeth Warren, even polls in double digits. Rather than attend the event, the Bernie Sanders campaign engaged in a Twitter spat with Moulitsas.

    What happened? Not all that long ago, liberal bloggers had genuine achievements to point to: Only a year before the 2007 Yearly Kos, Ned Lamont, a wealthy but little known Connecticut businessman, beat Joe Lieberman—the incumbent and a former vice presidential nominee of the Democratic Party—in a U.S. Senate primary by embracing the “blogosphere,” a ridiculous word for a not-ridiculous force: progressive online activists who could drive discourse, cultivate small donors and legitimize outsider politicians. Lamont made common cause with bloggers to punish Lieberman for his vote to authorize the Iraq War. Thirteen years later, now-Governor Lamont has endorsed the only presidential candidate who cast the same vote: Joe Biden.

    Moultisas chalked up the lack of presidential attendance at this year’s forum to “fear.” But the opposite appears to be true. Democrats do not fear offending the blogger stars of yore because the attempt to turn armchair pontificating into organized political power has failed.
    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/07/17/democratic-netroots-markos-moulitsas-227363

    It's easy to realize why KOS/Netroots Nation died..

    It only appeals to the Hate America crowd...

    And, fortunately, that crowd gets smaller and smaller..

  32. [32] 
    Michale wrote:

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez owes Kansas Rep. Sharice Davids an apology for staffer’s tweet

    U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s chief of staff sucker punched U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids of Kansas with an indefensible tweet saying she casts votes that “enable a racist system.”

    Saikat Chakrabarti’s Twitter attack rightly has prompted a storm of criticism from other Democrats. Many stated the obvious: Even hinting that Davids is racist, or enables racism, is offensive and shockingly misguided.

    Ocasio-Cortez, a fellow Democrat who is from New York, should publicly apologize for her staffer’s tweet, and Chakrabarti should consider another line of work.
    https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article232685017.html

    Being an America hating socialist bitch means never having to say yer sorry...

  33. [33] 
    Paula wrote:

    This is good - explains how E. Warren comes up with her plans:

    “It looks like we’re trying to solve a lot of different problems, but we’re only trying to solve one problem,” said Jon Donenberg, who is now the policy director for Warren’s presidential campaign. “It’s the rigged system; it’s the corrupt government and economy that only benefits those at the top. Every solution flows from that.”

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/elizabeth-warren-has-a-plan-for-that_n_5d279e9ee4b0060b11e9a22e?fbclid=IwAR22LB8Q0I8naoKDHIRlRsg2eSr2PMd-97VsF8PakRBXM3oYQp7GmZGVIgs

  34. [34] 
    Michale wrote:

    “It looks like we’re trying to solve a lot of different problems, but we’re only trying to solve one problem,” said Jon Donenberg, who is now the policy director for Warren’s presidential campaign. “It’s the rigged system; it’s the corrupt government and economy that only benefits those at the top. Every solution flows from that.”

    The problem is that it's the Democrats who had a hand in creating the system...

    And it's the Democrats who fight to PRESERVE the system...

    And YOU think a Democrat is going to fix it!!!???

    You must live in a state that has legalized marijuana.. :D Because yer high if you think that a Democrat is going to do ANYTHING to upset the status quo...

  35. [35] 
    Michale wrote:

    Once again..

    Supporters of President Donald Trump began lining up early for his 2020 re-election campaign rally in

    Greenville, North Carolina, set for Wednesday evening, according to local reports.

    WNCT 9 reports Trump supporters started gathering in the parking lot of Greenville’s Minges Coliseum on East Carolina University’s campus — the site where the rally will be held — at 4:00 a.m. EST. Minges has a capacity of 8,000 seats and those working the rally told WINT that they not only anticipate a sold-out crowd, but some eager to hear the president’s speech will be turned away. WITN reports roughly 100 people were lined up at 5:30 a.m. EST.

    The Trump campaign said it expects the president will receive a rockstar welcome in the Tar Heel State.
    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/07/17/watch-trump-supporters-line-up-at-400-am-for-greenville-nc-rally/

    Remind me again how President Trump's support is "waning"???

    I seem to have forgotten what with all the FACTS to the contrary...

    :eyeroll:

  36. [36] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    Don't kill the messenger.. :D

    it is not the message, it is the junk mail ;P

    i prefer it to no michale at all, but if i had a choice you'd be more selective in your sources.

    JL

  37. [37] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    And to them, Adolph Stalin is pure enough for the Democrat Party...

    and if you want to go all Godwin on us, there's plenty on the other side of that coin.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/expert-on-nazism-explains-the-shocking-similarities-between-trump-and-hitlers-propaganda-tactics/

  38. [38] 
    Michale wrote:

    it is not the message, it is the junk mail ;P

    heh

    i prefer it to no michale at all, but if i had a choice you'd be more selective in your sources.

    I'm sure... :D

    and if you want to go all Godwin on us, there's plenty on the other side of that coin.

    It was Godwin himself who totally negated the effectiveness of the Godwin on the altar of Party slavery...

    So Godwin is no longer a thing..

    https://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/expert-on-nazism-explains-the-shocking-similarities-between-trump-and-hitlers-propaganda-tactics/

    So, another Trump hater makes a comparison.. Big woop..

    That's about as meaningful as a religious Trump supporter who is an expert on theology making a claim of "shocking similarities" between Trump and Jesus Christ..

    Both are fools ruled by their emotions and their fanaticism..

  39. [39] 
    Michale wrote:

    but if i had a choice you'd be more selective in your sources.

    Which sources would you prefer that give the message of facts and reality that I want to convey???

  40. [40] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    So, another Trump hater makes a comparison.. Big woop..

    not so. read the article.

    "Nothing Trump does or says remotely justifies a serious comparison with the author of the Third Reich. "

  41. [41] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    Which sources would you prefer that give the message of facts and reality that I want to convey???

    Preferably the ones that aren't fictional.

  42. [42] 
    Michale wrote:

    Preferably the ones that aren't fictional.

    Hokay, great.. Then we're good.. :D

    Because all the sources I use are factual.. :D

  43. [43] 
    Michale wrote:

    Allow me to rephrase that to say, all sources I use for FACTS are factual..

    There are opinion sources as well.. :D

  44. [44] 
    Michale wrote:

    For example..

    The Best Day Of Joe Biden's Presidential Campaign Was The First One

    And other things you can learn from new data on how many donors Democratic presidential campaigns got each day this year.
    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/mattberman/2020-democratic-primary-donors

    Here's one of those OPINION sources that is backed up by facts..

  45. [45] 
    Kick wrote:

    Michale

    Somebody want to tell me again that Republicans are condemning President Trump??

    Four Republicans and Justin Amash voted for the Resolution yesterday, while the rest of the spineless GOP cowered in the corner afraid that the bully president might tweet out something mean about them.

    Tell me AGAIN how President Trump's support is waning??

    Because, it's funny...

    Republican support for Trump rises after racially charged tweets: Reuters/Ipsos poll

    Well now, this really is funny, but it takes a special kind of stupid to post a poll wherein you're bragging about the results that show 72% net approval of Republicans for the president, which is up 5% from last week but where the poll has a margin of error of 5%... meaning, when you factor in the MOE, support for Trump may not have changed at all. Besides, if the net approval actually is up 5% from last week, that actually proves that support for Trump has been waning as recently as last week. Also, it hasn't even been a year since the last real poll in November 2018 where Trump lost 40 seats in the House, many of those seats where Trump won by huge 20+ point margins.

    Tell me AGAIN how President Trump's support is waning??

    All the FACTS seem to indicate the opposite?? :D

    Okay, since you asked nicely, I'll tell you. If you actually look at the poll you posted and "all the FACTS," here's what it shows:

    Trump, who is seeking re-election next year, has lost support, however, with Democrats and independents since the Sunday tweetstorm.

    Among independents, about three out of 10 said they approved of Trump, down from four out of 10 a week ago. His net approval - the percentage who approve minus the percentage who disapprove - dropped by 2 points among Democrats in the poll.

    Trump’s overall approval remained unchanged over the past week. According to the poll, 41% of the U.S. public said they approved of his performance in office, while 55% disapproved.

    https://tinyurl.com/yxt855rf

    So this poll you're so excited about shows Trump yanking the strings of only his little puppets while losing Independents and Democrats. In the last real poll in 2018, Independents overwhelmingly favored Democrats and flipped the House even in states with heavily gerrymandered districts. Trump is losing Independents, particularly educated females in the suburbs, and has been for quite awhile now... this poll showing only 3 in 10 Independents supporting Trump and that trend continuing.

    Trump is basically tripling down on running yet another race where he's decided to try to divide and conquer using "fear and smear," red baiting, and race baiting, but this time he's referring to voters he needs to win as "un American."

    In my opinion, it's an ignorant strategy to refer to a large number of voters as "un American" and expect to receive their vote... ranks even higher on the "Stupid Meter" than referring to voters as "deplorables." Dumb strategy.

  46. [46] 
    Michale wrote:

    Oh wow...

    One of the last of the old school journalists has died..

    Wes Pruden...

    I, for one, will miss him...

  47. [47] 
    Michale wrote:

    DEMOCRAT SHOOTS WIFE THEN SELF
    Mississippi state House candidate kills wife, self in murder-suicide, police say

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/mississippi-candidate-murder-suicide-police-say

    Nothing but facts...

  48. [48] 
    Michale wrote:

    Trump team hails closure of Cohen hush-money case, as documents set for release

    President Trump’s legal team is declaring victory, as a federal judge said in a court order Wednesday that the investigation of hush-money payments arranged by Michael Cohen – which Cohen claims were at Trump’s direction – has come to an end.

    Judge William H. Pauley III announced that prosecutors in the Southern District of New York revealed this development to the court in a status report, as media companies including The New York Times, Associated Press, CNN, and Dow Jones & Co. have pushed to unseal the search warrant materials related to the case. The end of the investigation likely means no additional charges will be filed against anyone, including the president.

    “We are pleased that the investigation surrounding these ridiculous campaign finance allegations is now closed,” Trump’s attorney Jay Sekulow said in a statement. “We have maintained from the outset that the President never engaged in any campaign finance violation.”
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-team-hails-closure-of-cohen-hush-money-case-as-documents-set-for-release

    Democrats LOSE.... AGAIN....

    Again.. Nothing but the facts..

  49. [49] 
    Michale wrote:

    The white supremacy phantom

    Does Donald Trump’s habit of tweaking the commentariat mean he must be impeached?

    Well la-dee-dah. The House votes to condemn ‘President Trump for his “racist comments” about four Democratic congresswomen of color.’

    First, I am glad that ‘racist comments’ was in scare quotes. Why? Because there was nothing racist about the president’s tweets inviting creeps like Somali-born Rep. Ilhan Omar to leave the United States if she doesn’t like it here.

    Second, I wish people would give the phrase ‘people of color’ a rest. Everyone is a color — even, I suppose, Albinos (is that ‘racist’ now, too?). I, for example, am a pleasing pink.

    But the fact that someone is dark-skinned imparts to him no special virtue, just as the fact that someone is Caucasian saddles him with no special liability.

    Except, alas, that it does. At least in the racist court of identity politics.
    https://spectator.us/white-supremacy-phantom/

    If Democrats didn't have the race card, they would have no cards at all... :eyeroll:

  50. [50] 
    Kick wrote:

    So.. Being women of "color" somehow makes them special???

    Makes them bitches, maybe... Special?? Not so much... ~ Michale

    So being women of color makes them bitches, maybe? This type statement says so much more about Michael Worley than it does anyone else.

    Since the fake cop Michael Worley is back to posting my pseudonym because I posted it, I'm following Michael's lead now and feeling free to repost any information he's posted. This is fun. :)

  51. [51] 
    Michale wrote:

    And since Victoria is back to DOXing me, I guess no holds are barred anymore..

    What else is there to expect from a crack whore welfare bitch...

    Cue Victoria's attacks on my wife, my children and my grandchildren..

    That's par for the course for this bitch...

  52. [52] 
    Michale wrote:

    Sorry Liz.. You tried...

    But Victoria couldn't handle me ignoring her and she had to start spewing her crap and bile again...

  53. [53] 
    Kick wrote:

    Trump's immigration deal with Mexico is working

    Oh, FFS! This is nothing more than partisan drivel. It is a well-known fact that border apprehensions always drop as temperatures change.

    https://tinyurl.com/y26h8ytq

    It's predictable that this would happen yet again and exactly why Trump timed his "deal with Mexico" to coincide with the statistical norms. No one but the gullible rubes and easily conned of the Trump cult are the least bit surprised that record heat slows down migration because it always has.

  54. [54] 
    Kick wrote:

    Everyone

    This morning, I came to read the forum and found that the board troll had begun posting my name again after I have asked him not to do that.

    http://www.chrisweigant.com/2019/07/15/trump-unites-democrats/#comment-139769

    His reasoning then was that I had posted it so he would do so whenever he wanted to do it whether I liked it or not. Well, following his lead, shouldn't everyone else be able to repost his information whether he likes it or not?

    FACT: Michael doxed himself multiple times.
    FACT: Michael doxed his wife multiple times.
    FACT: Michael doxed his grandchild.
    FACT: Michael doxed his children multiple times.
    FACT: All of this occurred long before I ever posted a single comment on this forum.

    And Michael keeps falsely claiming that I doxed him.

    I wish I could say I was surprised. That is bullshit. I'm simply reposting the information he already supplied to the entire world long before I began posting here.

    Why should the troll expect any different treatment than he's dishing out? Sounds to me like the whiney little bitch can't stand the heat. Boo-effing-hoo! :D

  55. [55] 
    Kick wrote:

    Michale
    51

    And since Victoria is back to DOXing me, I guess no holds are barred anymore..

    You doxed yourself, fake cop. :D

  56. [56] 
    Michale wrote:

    Everyone

    I have been working hard at ignoring Victoria... No matter what bullshit she posted, no matter how aggressive she got in her personal attacks I ignored that..

    That all stopped yesterday when she worked with Steedo to DOX the info on myself and my family.. Steedo used that info to threaten me in real life...

    At that point, she had lost all deference I was willing to give her...

    I hope CW will do the responsible thing and delete her posts that expose my real full name...

    Regardless, she has lost all semblance of tolerance on my part..

  57. [57] 
    Kick wrote:

    Michale

    Sorry Liz.. You tried...

    Liz, help me, Liz! Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!

    But Victoria couldn't handle me ignoring her and she had to start spewing her crap and bile again...

    I have no problem with you ignoring me. In fact, I prefer it, fake cop, but since you reposted my pseudonym again, then why on Earth shouldn't I be able to repost your name or anything else you've supplied on this forum in the same manner? You repost my information, and I'll naturally repost yours. Seems fair to me.

    You seem to be needing some attention right now, Michael, seem to be lashing out with vicious attacks towards people on this board, but you also seem to not be able to handle the heat in the kitchen where you're simply receiving the same treatment you are giving. This whiney little bitch aspect of your personality is unbecoming of a law enforcement officer but more indicative of a fake cop. :D

  58. [58] 
    Michale wrote:

    And yes.. Back when we were close knit and really good friends, yes.. I posted pictures of my wife and children and grandchildren..

    But only a FUCKING ASSHOLE would take THAT as tacit approval to attack them in the most vile and disgusting manner..

    I know Liz's real name.. I know Joshua's real name and have his email... Joshua even posted a youtube of himself..

    Does that mean I have the right to use one of those FIND OUT ANYTHING ABOUT ANYBODY websites and dox them and attack them or their family!!

    Of course not!!!! And THEY know that I would NEVER be such a depraved asshole and do that..

    CW has posted pics and the name of his wife.. Does that mean, just because we differ politically!??? OF COURSE NOT!!!

    Only the most depraved of assholes and morons would think that simply posting family shots warrants that attacks on family and children and grand children..

    ONLY THE MOST DEPRAVED ASSHOLES WOULD THINK LIKE THAT..

    Enter Victoria....

    The most depraved asshole on the Internet.. And THAT says something...

  59. [59] 
    Kick wrote:

    Michale
    56

    I have been working hard at ignoring Victoria... No matter what bullshit she posted, no matter how aggressive she got in her personal attacks I ignored that..

    Bullshit.

    That all stopped yesterday when she worked with Steedo to DOX the info on myself and my family.. Steedo used that info to threaten me in real life...

    More bullshit. I don't even know who Steedo is. No one worked with anyone. I simply posted a link in a comment to Steedo that led to a prior post of yours where you doxed yourself. Let it "sink in" to your tiny little brain that no one here has doxed you except yourself. You posted your own information on this forum... multiple times: Your name, your wife's name, your grandchild's name, etc. I have not doxed you! You did that to yourself, shitty cop!

    At that point, she had lost all deference I was willing to give her...

    I posted a link to your own comment and "lost all deference" you were willing to give me? Do you realize how stupid you sound? You're so full of shit if you think anyone here is going to blame me for YOU posting your own information all over this blog!? No one else here besides you is that ignorant!

    I hope CW will do the responsible thing and delete her posts that expose my real full name...

    You exposed your own real full name and tons of information all over this forum. The "responsible thing" would have been for you not to be ignorant enough to post all that information all over this forum. Is that the kind of hard-hitting law enforcement "intelligence" they're teaching at Trump Fake Cop University?

    Regardless, she has lost all semblance of tolerance on my part..

    Tolerance!?

    BWWAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

  60. [60] 
    Michale wrote:

    You exposed your own real full name and tons of information all over this forum.

    So???

    Does that give you the RIGHT to attack my family and pass it on to OTHER fucking assholes so they can threaten me in real life??

    What kind of fucking crack whore welfare monster are you!!???

    No wonder yer single..

  61. [61] 
    Kick wrote:

    Michale
    58

    And yes.. Back when we were close knit and really good friends, yes.. I posted pictures of my wife and children and grandchildren..

    Thank you for that admission, but everyone here already knew that you doxed yourself. You didn't just post pictures, Mike. You posted everyone's name and all kinds of other information, and you know it and everyone here already knows it.

    But only a FUCKING ASSHOLE would take THAT as tacit approval to attack them in the most vile and disgusting manner..

    Now is that part where you lie and pretend that I attacked your wife and children when the FACT is that you made attacks on me, and I simply made statements along the lines of "but enough about your wife" in response to names you were calling me.

    Those are the facts, Mike.

    I know Liz's real name.. I know Joshua's real name and have his email... Joshua even posted a youtube of himself..

    Me too, Mike, but show a little love for Don Harris since he posted a youtube also.

    Does that mean I have the right to use one of those FIND OUT ANYTHING ABOUT ANYBODY websites and dox them and attack them or their family!!

    You're full of shit, Mike. I already told you how I got the information about you; it was you who posted it. No website was used, and it's the height of ignorance and a standard display of your regular gaslighting bullshit to claim anything otherwise. You're a liar of the highest order, and claiming that I attacked your family in vile ways is bullshit. You would post something you thought was really nasty but was really other rather childish, and then I would make a comment like: "I thought we had agreed to stop talking about your family."

    Of course not!!!! And THEY know that I would NEVER be such a depraved asshole and do that..

    Don't sell yourself short, Mike... you are one "depraved asshole" if there ever was one!

    CW has posted pics and the name of his wife.. Does that mean, just because we differ politically!??? OF COURSE NOT!!!

    Yes, very nice pictures too. I particularly liked the pictures of CW in Arkansas with the Tommy gun, but I digress. What do CW's pictures have to do with the fact that you doxed yourself?

    Only the most depraved of assholes and morons would think that simply posting family shots warrants that attacks on family and children and grand children..

    Like I said, you're full of shit. Russ made a comment one time that he hoped no one ever treated your grandchild the way you were gleefully excited about those children being treated at the border. You then turned around and accused him of attacking your grandchild when that never happened. Now you're accusing me of attacking your grandchild when that never happened either.

    ONLY THE MOST DEPRAVED ASSHOLES WOULD THINK LIKE THAT..
    Enter Victoria....

    Life I said, Mike, don't sell yourself short, it takes a special kind of depraved asshole to claim to know what someone else thinks, and that's your modus operandi on this entire board... that and your fake quotes and claiming that people here said things that they never said. You just make the shit up, and off you go. Yes, sir, it takes a depraved asshole to accuse Russ (and now me) of attacking your grandchild when no one on this board has ever done that to my knowledge. That's all a fantasy in your own mind. Seek help.

    The most depraved asshole on the Internet.. And THAT says something...

    Well, posting boatloads of your own information on a forum and then blaming someone else for simply linking to your own ignorant. You posted your own email too... even after we'd had multiple conversations about you doxing yourself, you remained determined to keep doing it by posting your own email. Yep. It takes a special kind of "depraved asshole," but there you are... and THAT does say something that you'd blame anyone but yourself. You did it to yourself, fake shitty cop. :)

  62. [62] 
    Kick wrote:

    Michale
    60

    So???

    Thank you for your confession that you posted your own information all over this forum. Nice to have that cleared up. The only two things I have posted about you personally were your first and last name, but they're all over this board, and you have yourself to thank for it so you can stop with the whiney little bitchy routine where you blame me. That ship has now sailed... thank you.

    Does that give you the RIGHT to attack my family and pass it on to OTHER fucking assholes so they can threaten me in real life??

    Oh. Come. On! This is pathetic, Mike, even for you. What did he do? Threaten to grab you by the pussy? No big deal, according to you. He seemed to be joking, Mike, and then you threatened him with guns. You do that a lot on this board. Did he repeatedly ask you to kill yourself, Mike? Oh, wait... that was also you.

    What kind of fucking crack whore welfare monster are you!!???

    I thought we had agreed to stop talking about your family. :D

    No wonder yer single..

    Yeah, about that, Mike: I'm not single. :D

  63. [63] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    oh ffs!

  64. [64] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    "Like sands through the hourglass, so are the days of our lives."
    -Socrates
    Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure

  65. [65] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    [1],

    I wonder if you realize, Paula, that what you said sounds an awful lot like President Trump.

  66. [66] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    [63],

    Indeed!

  67. [67] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Paula,

    Jon Donenberg should try to come up with talking points that don't sound like they came straight out of Trump's playbook.

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