General David Petraeus, testifying before Congress today (in the hopes that they will approve his promotion), may just have thrown a serious monkey wrench into the Republicans' election strategy, by killing one of their best hopes for an "October Surprise."

I wrote about this scenario two months ago in an article titled "Democrats Beware: 'October Surprise' Announced In Advance." The plan was to have Iraq hold its provincial elections this October, one month before our own. Images of Iraqis waving purple fingers and happily voting were to be the order of the day.

However, during a hearing before Congress today, General David Petraeus just shot down that plan. He said the elections would likely be delayed, and would not meet the October deadline.

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Last Thanksgiving, I took a vacation from the blog and (while I was gone) I ran a series of speech transcripts from all eight of the Democratic candidates for president. It was an interesting process, since I had to contact all the campaigns to get their permission to do so, and to get them to select which speech to use. I did it as a public service, something that newspapers used to do back when they were interested in their civic duties as members of a free press (say, the early 1960s, at a guess).

After the series ran, I was contacted by Professor Kenneth Janda, who asked if he could use the speeches as data for his project examining the language of such political stump speeches [PDF of a Chicago Tribune article on the subject]. I told him "sure, go right ahead," since I already had permission from the campaigns to use the speeches publicly.

Since we are about at the halfway point in the 2008 elections -- with the last dust settling from the nomination race and the general election campaign gearing up -- I thought it would be a good time to talk to Janda again. I am not professionally trained in political science (I just pretend to be, on the internet), so I thought it would be interesting to hear from someone who is.

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With a title like that, you might be expecting Marc Antony-like irony ("Brutus is an honorable man"), but I'm actually serious. I like 527s, and wholeheartedly support the concept. Sure, it could use a little more openness, but the basic idea is sound. Three examples from the campaign trail today show why.

But before we get to that, let's start with some definitions. A 527, for those of you who don't already know, is an organization (it's more properly called a "527 group") that raises money and then spends it to further their own political agenda. It is called a 527 because of the section of the IRS rules it exists under. If you want to make a political point -- any political point -- you can form a 527, raise money from donors, and then spend that money on a print, radio, or television advertisement campaign. You find some deep-pocket donor, get him or her to pony up a few million bucks (or raise it from small donors online), and then you air ads on television saying whatever you want. Well, that's not 100% true, as there are limits to what you can say. You can't, for instance, come out and say "vote for Obama," because that puts you in a whole different section of the IRS tax code. But other than advocating for one particular candidate, you can pretty much say whatever you want.

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Guests on Sunday morning talk shows are supposed to follow a few unwritten rules. They're supposed to be party supporters, and put a positive spin on anything which could be damaging to their party, or their party's chances in the next election. They're not supposed to be brutally honest. Which is why, when it happens -- especially when it comes from a Republican -- it's worth noting.

Bob Schieffer on CBS News' Face The Nation this week had Florida Governor Charles Crist and Republican consultant Ed Rollins on the show, to talk about the state of the Republican Party heading into the 2008 election season. Ed Rollins has an absolutely sterling pedigree in Republican politics, since he worked for Ronald Reagan, and ran Reagan's re-election campaign in 1984. When he talks, in other words, Republicans listen.

Rollins is not very upbeat about Republicans in general, George Bush, Republicans' chances in 2008, or indeed the whole future of the Republican Party. He says the party "has kind of lost its way." He bemoans the fact that young people are flocking to the Democratic Party as a "death knell for the long term." George Bush has to realize "he's no longer on the ballot." As for the Bush administration, "the quicker this page is turned by many Americans, including a lot of Republicans, the better." He later returns to this point, and makes it even more forcefully: "This administration is pretty tired right now and I think even the most die-hard Republicans are ready to move on."

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Borah Peak, at 12,662 feet high, is the highest point in Idaho.

[That may sound like a strange place to begin this column, but please bear with me.]

It was named for Senator William Borah, known as "the Lion from Idaho." He had an impressive political career, even running for president at age 71, the first Idahoan ever to do so (of any age). Borah was a progressive, and clashed with his party over his often left-wing stances. He was even friendly toward Russian communists, while he was the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He was also a Republican.

But we speak of Borah today not for his lofty namesake peak, but because he also set the mark for senatorial shame from Idaho. Not even Larry Craig, the sitting (with a wide stance, no doubt) senator from Idaho is a bigger black eye for the state, in one respect. William Borah actually fathered a child with Teddy Roosevelt's daughter -- while they were both married to other people. Top that, Senator Craig!

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It's time to get some laws passed.

The time is now.

I don't know how else to say it. Democrats in Congress have been served up with the goldenest of opportunities to actually get some good bills passed, from now until election day. To their credit, they've had a mighty productive week, doing just that. But they need to redouble their efforts and hammer Republican legislators with vote after vote on issues popular with the American public. Because, while it's always a good campaign tactic in an election year, this year is different because there is an excellent chance of actually passing -- even over Bush's veto -- some good laws.

Because Republican congressional incumbents are scared. They are quite literally quaking in their boots. The Republican Party's complete and utter breakdown -- showing their absolute lack of even having any pretense of new ideas for America -- is happening right out in the open, for all to see. They're so depressed, they actually stole their new slogan "The Change you Deserve" from an anti-depressant drug. I wrote about this fear yesterday, but since then more and more Republicans keep giving quotes to the press about how dismal their chances are this year. Here is just a sampling of what Republicans are saying, selecting quotes only from people named "Tom":

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[Those of you who prefer "all cynicism all the time" should just skip this column, since I'm about to get blisteringly optimistic here. You have been warned.]

Maybe this will be Karl Rove's legacy. One can only hope.

There have been three astounding elections recently which are absolutely terrifying the Republican Party. Because they can see which way the pendulum of American politics is swinging, and it is decidedly not in their direction.

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And so all eyes in the American political world turn to West Virginia -- a state none of the pundits and pontificators know (or care) much about. They certainly never expected to be in a hotel room in Wheeling or Charleston in the middle of May this year. Because the conventional wisdom set in stone -- before anybody actually cast a primary vote -- was that "Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday" (as it was called back then, mercifully shortened now to just "Super Tuesday") was going to be the whole Magilla. On the not-as-super-Wednesday that followed, we would have a Democratic nominee, and could then focus on beating Rudy Giuliani in November.

That this never came to pass is an indictment of following the chattering classes inside the Beltway, and their so-called conventional "wisdom." Because here we sit, months after Super Tuesday, and we're still paying attention to primaries in states that never get mentioned on the national news otherwise (barring spectacular video footage of some natural disaster there). Which begs the question for the next election cycle -- what will the primary calendar look like in 2012?

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With sincere apologies to Bill Maher for stealing his schtick, I have a new rule.

My new rule is for uncommitted Democratic superdelegates. The rule is: you are not allowed to publicly bemoan how "divided" the party currently is, or tut-tut that "the nomination process has gone on too long," or even wish that "it resolve itself soon." In other words, if you're part of the problem, you're not allowed to get all vaporous over the fact that the problem exists. Period.

The remaining 250 (or so) superdelegates who have not "put up" their endorsement publicly need to "shut up." Because these mugwumps can end the race any time they want -- by coming out en masse for one candidate or the other. So they no longer have the right to complain that the race is going on too long.

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Now that that's all over with, can we please focus on beating John McCain?

Virtually everyone (with the possible exception of Hillary Clinton -- I guess nobody told her) now knows that the Democratic candidate for president is going to be Barack Obama. But while the end of this long and winding road is now in sight, Democrats should not just be heaving an enormous sigh of relief -- they should be turning all their energy towards beating John McCain in November.

Because we've already seen what happens when the candidate lets their guard down between becoming presumptive nominee and the convention (can you say "Swift Boat"?). And we definitely don't want that to happen again.

We also want to help Barack Obama with his down-ticket coattails. A stunning thing happened in Louisiana last week, but very few people noticed. There was a special election for a House seat in a district held by Republicans for 33 years, which voted overwhelmingly for Bush last time around. And guess what? The Democratic candidate won. Importantly, he won even after he was smeared by an anti-Obama and anti-Wright ad campaign by his Republican opponent.

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