ChrisWeigant.com

The Punditocracy Is Missing Democrats' Real Campaign Focus

[ Posted Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 16:46 UTC ]

Pretty much all year long, there has been a popular parlor game played on the cocktail-party circuit inside the Beltway. It might be called: "Democrats Should Run On Bashing Trump And Impeachment." Both subjects were endlessly debated, and a consensus opinion emerged that this was obviously the best way for Democrats to campaign. Bashing Trump at every turn and using "the I-word" as often as possible would surely be the Democrats' best chance of success in the midterms. It became accepted as conventional inside-the-Beltway wisdom, meaning the punditocracy would ask actual Democrats about the subject whenever they got a chance. The fact that the answers didn't match with the perceived reality was barely even noted. Now, finally, some of them are beginning to take note that Democrats are actually running a very different campaign, out there beyond the Beltway.

In actual fact, Democratic candidates have been running their campaign on what the voters truly care about. And at the top of that list is healthcare. For the first time, Obamacare has become a potent political issue for Democrats. Donald Trump did what Barack Obama couldn't -- he made Obamacare popular. The Republican efforts to repeal Obamacare and replace it with a return to the bad old days when pre-existing conditions meant refusal of health insurance has not been forgotten by the public at large. They now understand what "repeal and replace" actually means, and they are against it. This is why Democrats have so heavily leaned on the issue in their campaigns.

Continue Reading »

Trump's Polling Turns South

[ Posted Wednesday, September 12th, 2018 – 16:03 UTC ]

One of the best indicators of how midterm elections will turn out is the current president's approval rating. If he's got high job approval ratings from the public, his party can be expected to do well; sometimes even breaking historical norms. If, however, the president's job approval rating is low, then his party usually suffers in the midterms. This tracks closer than many other indicators that numbers wonks watch, such as the state of the economy or the "right track/wrong track" generic polling question. In the past two weeks -- and just two months before the 2018 midterms -- President Donald Trump's polling numbers (which were historically very low to begin with) have taken a pretty steep dive downward. Republican candidates for office are reportedly increasingly worried about this new development -- as they well should be.

Watching Trump's polling over the summer has been pretty boring for the most part, because his polling numbers have remained remarkably consistent. Low but steady, in other words. In fact, the last time I saw fit to write about Trump's polling was way back in March. While I couldn't know it at the time, the day I wrote about Trump's polls was a minor inflection point, because while he had just hit a low of 39.8 percent job approval (all numbers, as always, are from the Real Clear Politics rolling daily average page), he then went on to recover from the mini-dip, and his numbers would rise back to the 41-42 percent range. Trump then got a boost at the end of April, when his average approval ticked up to the 43-44 percent range. His numbers would then largely stay the same all summer long. This is why there hasn't been much to comment upon ever since, because since the beginning of May, his numbers have been remarkably steady. Until a few weeks ago, that is.

Continue Reading »

Primary Season's Last Lap

[ Posted Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 16:41 UTC ]

The 2018 primary election season draws to a close this week, with the final three states holding their primaries in back-to-back fashion. Today New Hampshire will vote, tomorrow Rhode Island will weigh in, and then on Thursday New Yorkers will get the final say. This seems fairly late in the year to still be holding primaries, considering that general election races have already been going on in other states for months, but I guess somebody's got to go last.

Continue Reading »

Could Trump And Pelosi Actually Get Some Things Done?

[ Posted Monday, September 10th, 2018 – 16:37 UTC ]

The 2018 midterm elections are less than 60 days away. Today, though, I am going to speculate not on the outcome in November, but on the possible aftermath. In doing so, I'm going to make a few rather large assumptions, just for the purposes of this speculative column. By doing so, I am in no way predicting this as the most possible future, but I'm going to go ahead and assume that Democrats take back control of the House of Representatives, and furthermore they then go on to elect Nancy Pelosi for her second stint as speaker of the House. As I said, those are both pretty large assumptions because while it is the most probable outcome according to many pundits, as we all know the improbable occasionally surprises everyone. If that weren't true, then we'd all be currently speculating whether President Hillary Clinton was about to lose congressional seats in her first midterm.

Interestingly enough, it doesn't really matter to today's thought experiment whether Democrats take control of the Senate, or whether Republicans keep control of the upper chamber. Since the Senate now requires 60 votes to move any important piece of legislation, the only real difference is whether Democrats have to pick up fewer than 10 GOP votes (if they win control and Chuck Schumer is in command) or slightly more than 10 votes, plus Mitch McConnell's support (since McConnell would control what gets voted on should the Republicans retain control in the Senate). Either way, to get anything passed into law is going to require the cooperation of at least some Republican senators, no matter what the actual number turns out to be.

So, assuming for the sake of argument that Nancy Pelosi does become speaker again and that Donald Trump is still president (there's another rather large assumption), the question that occurred to me was whether the two of them could actually work together to pass some decent new laws. Because that's not as unbelievable (or, if you will, downright laughable) a proposal as it might first sound.

Continue Reading »

Friday Talking Points [499] -- The Constitutional Crisis Is Already Here

[ Posted Friday, September 7th, 2018 – 17:55 UTC ]

As we are occasionally wont to do, today's column will be nothing short of a rant. It just seemed like it was time for one, to us. There were two enormous stories in the world of politics this week: the Supreme Court confirmation hearings in the Senate, and the two bombshells about Trump revealed by Bob Woodward and an anonymous senior member of the Trump administration. All other political stories paled in significance.

So, for once, we are not even going to bother running down the political news of the week here in the introduction. We've addressed the Senate hearings in the awards section, and we will focus on the Trump revelations in the talking points, which (as we said) will consist of one long rant rather than discrete talking points for Democrats.

Continue Reading »

The Call Is Coming From Inside The House!

[ Posted Thursday, September 6th, 2018 – 16:51 UTC ]

That title is a classic horror show moment, so first allow me to properly cite it. In the movie When A Stranger Calls (1979), a frightened and terrified woman is told the threatening calls she's been getting are more than just close to home. The actual quote, from a policeman calling her up, is: "Jill, this is sergeant Sacker. Listen to me. We've traced the call... it's coming from inside the house. Now a squad car's coming over there right now, just get out of that house!" Younger readers may recognize it more from the spoof horror film Scream, which paid homage to the original. The horrific aspect of the line is that the danger is very close at hand, obviously. Which is why it is the perfect quote for the center ring of the Trump circus at this particular moment in time.

Yesterday, the New York Times published what will likely go down in history as the most famous anonymous opinion article ever written. "I Am Part Of The Resistance Inside The Trump Administration" is indeed (oxymoronically) an instant classic. A senior Trump administration official felt the need to explain himself (or herself) to the world, in the hopes of gaining some sort of absolution. It was a cry from within the building, but in this case the irony is that the danger is identified as the man in the Oval Office.

Continue Reading »

Democrats Need To Keep Fighting Even If Kavanaugh Is Confirmed

[ Posted Wednesday, September 5th, 2018 – 18:18 UTC ]

I'm writing this while watching the Senate confirmation hearing on Judge Brett Kavanaugh. As usual for Supreme Court confirmation hearings, it is fascinating to watch. However, also as usual, it is likely going to be absolutely meaningless, because Republicans are going to have the votes to confirm him in the end. The Democrats are fighting hard, but they're going to lose this one, to put it more bluntly. It was essentially a done deal before the hearing even began.

Elections have consequences, of course. One of those is the president's power to appoint judges. This is now a turbocharged process. Democrats are on the powerless end of the stick right now, which is why Kavanaugh will be confirmed. Moving forward, there are three big ways to fight back against this situation: vote more Democrats into office, Democrats in office need to champion better laws, and don't be so shy about suggesting amendments to the Constitution. Those are really the only choices, when you look at the big picture.

The first is pretty obvious. Elect more Democrats -- enough to take back the House, the Senate, and (eventually) the White House. If Democrats controlled the Senate, Kavanaugh would not be confirmed. All other Trump judicial nominees would be in peril as well. Elections matter. But Republican voters are much more inclined to consider court appointments when voting than Democrats. This has to change, if Democrats are ever going to win this game.

Conservatives have taken a very long view on judicial appointments. They started this effort back in the 1980s, in fact. That's when the Moral Majority (and groups like them) began to see that one good way to fight Roe v. Wade was to see to it that judges were installed who mirrored their own views on abortion. We may be at the end of this road, with Kavanaugh, but it has been a very long fight for them, one they have been fighting for over three decades. They've seen their fight as a marathon, not a sprint.

Democrats simply don't have the same viewpoint. They don't consider the judicial appointment question all that much when voting. This may be starting to change -- the unprecedented takedown of Merrick Garland certainly woke a lot of people up to how important the issue was, and how far the Republicans were willing to break established precedent to fulfill their aim of getting as many conservatives on the bench as possible.

Equally important (if not more so) is to elect Democratic presidents. After all, that's where the judicial nominations originate from. Don't like the fact that Trump is getting so many judges confirmed? Then replace him in 2020, and elect Democrats for the next two or three terms. That will put the shoe on the other foot -- especially if they have a Democratic Senate to work with.

The political pendulum swings. Eventually, Democrats will get their chance at bat again. When they do, the turbocharged factor is going to help. When I use this term, I am speaking of the two "nuclear options" the Senate has gone through in the past decade. Both parties bear some of the blame (or credit, depending on your point of view) for dropping these nukes. First Harry Reid removed the filibuster from all judicial nominations below the Supreme Court level. Then Mitch McConnell did the same for Supreme Court nominees. If he hadn't, we would likely currently have two vacancies on the Supreme Court, since Democrats would have been in the mood for payback after Merrick Garland's treatment.

Sooner or later, Democrats will get the same opportunity that Republicans are now enjoying. And they'll do precisely what Republicans have been doing under Trump -- rushing as many judicial nominations through the Senate as fast as possible. Trump has set records for the number of judges confirmed, but that is a direct result of the two nukes. The process has been streamlined, which is why it has speeded up. But it'll be just as fast when Democrats eventually get their innings.

The second strategy is, after electing enough Democrats to take back at least one chamber of Congress, to push back on Supreme Court overreach by passing laws directly challenging their decisions. If a decision strikes down a law on technicalities, then go back and fix the technicalities and pass the law again. If they punt on a tiny legal issue, in other words, then force them to deal with the broader question by pressing the case.

It has to be said, this will probably fail, at least at first. But if Democrats can even take back the House, then it will be useful politically, if not successful legislatively. By passing a bill directly challenging a Supreme Court decision Democrats feel was wrongly decided, it will focus attention on the underlying issue. This will cause the Republicans to argue the other side, which may be wildly unpopular. It may even (this works only in rare cases) cause so much embarrassment on their side of the aisle to actually get a bill through the Senate (or even get a Republican president to sign it). The key to such rare victories is to mobilize the public on your side in a major way. But to mobilize them, you've got to have a solid bill to rally around.

The final strategy is also mostly a political one, but it can be used to great effectiveness. If the Supreme Court wrongly decides a case on basic constitutional grounds (rather than just ruling on a technicality), then there is only one real remedy to fix the problem: a constitutional amendment.

The Supreme Court interprets the Constitution. But the text of the Constitution includes every amendment, from the Bill of Rights forward. So if the Supreme Court says "this is not constitutional" then a constitutional amendment which specifically states that it is now the law will completely tie the hands of the court. If it is explicitly stated within the Constitution itself (as an amendment) then the court must decide legal cases based on the new amendment, and not on anything they've previously decided.

So where is the unified Democratic Party push to pass a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United? Small efforts may exist in Congress, but so far the party has not made it a top priority -- despite the fact that most Americans simply do not agree that corporations have personal rights under the Constitution (and the Bill of Rights contained within). That is merely one example of what I'm talking about.

Proposing a constitutional amendment can be a purely political act, even if you would happily love see the amendment ratified. Most amendments are not successfully ratified, because the bar is so high. But that shouldn't stop Democrats from merely proposing them. A simple "corporations are not people" amendment is pretty easy to understand by most people, and would undo the damage done by Citizens United. But that's not the only good example.

How about a privacy amendment, which guarantees every citizen's privacy from both corporate America and the government? I'd bet that would be a pretty popular idea. It also might just help shore up Roe v. Wade. How about an amendment legalizing marijuana and regulating it exactly the same as alcohol? Bet that one would also be wildly popular right about now.

If Democrats don't like Supreme Court decisions, and they think they've got the public squarely on their side, then they should push as hard as they can for a constitutional amendment. Even though most (if not all) of these efforts will ultimately fail, merely bringing the subject up will reap political rewards. The Republicans have known this for a long time, and have wielded this political weapon quite masterfully, at times. Remember the hoo-hah about the anti-flag-burning amendment? Or how about the anti-gay-marriage amendment? Both were used to great effect to turn Republican voters out at the polls and excite their political base. Both, in fact, were so popular (at the time) that they caused Democratic politicians to get on board (see: Dianne Feinstein, flag-burning). The flag-burning amendment got fourteen such Democratic votes in the Senate, one vote short of the two-thirds majority it needed. That's a pretty effective political bludgeon, you have to admit.

Democrats can do the same thing, if they'd only prioritize such efforts. Corporate and dark money in politics is pretty much reviled by everyone, no matter their political bent. A "corporations are not people" amendment could garner wide support among the general public, which would leave Republicans to explain why they were fighting against something a majority of their own voters supported. There are any number of issues that could be amendment proposals, in fact. Protecting equal rights and equal pay in the workplace, for instance. Protecting the rights of people with pre-existing conditions to buy health insurance would be another wildly popular idea. Banning the use of non-disclosure agreements in sexual harassment cases might be another. Pick any issue that the Republicans are going to have to play a very uncomfortable defense on, and boldly propose an amendment to fix the problem.

Or do so in direct response to Supreme Court decisions you disagree with. Citizens United won't be the only one to target in the near future, that much seems certain at this point. Democrats are fighting hard in today's hearing, but they're not going to win this battle. The court will soon have a 5-4 conservative majority, for the foreseeable future. They are quite likely to overreach on some issues. Democrats can fight back against these, and everything they do in this regard will have a serendipitous effect on their other efforts.

Get more Democrats elected. Enthuse Democratic voters by making the courts a major issue. Pass laws to force Republicans to defend things that the public doesn't agree with. If that doesn't work, then propose new amendments that an overwhelming number of people would agree with. This will all have the effect of getting more Democrats elected, eventually. It's a virtuous cycle, in other words.

We're going to lose this confirmation battle. But that doesn't mean we should weep and wail and then do nothing else. This, as the conservatives have proven, is a long game. It's a marathon. Democrats -- the politicians, the party at large, and the voters themselves -- should start acting like it, and gird their loins for an extended political battle. Republicans are already fighting this fight, so it's time to fight back using all the weapons available. That's the only way things are ever going to change for the better.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

Crazytown

[ Posted Tuesday, September 4th, 2018 – 17:04 UTC ]

The Washington Post just unveiled a sneak peek at Bob Woodward's upcoming book about the Trump White House, and so far it looks pretty much exactly the same as every other peek inside the Trump White House. Chaos reigns, Donald Trump is patently unfit to hold the office, and his aides do their best to get important things done while refusing to follow the worst of the unbalanced and angry orders from their boss. As Chief of Staff John Kelly is quoted saying, it is "Crazytown."

Kelly's full quote on Trump is worth repeating, to understand the depth of frustration of the sane adults who surround Trump and try to fend off his worst impulses:

He's an idiot. It's pointless to try to convince him of anything. He's gone off the rails. We're in Crazytown. I don't even know why any of us are here. This is the worst job I've ever had.

Elsewhere, Reince Priebus (the man who used to hold Kelly's job) describes Trump's aides as "natural predators," with a particularly gruesome metaphor: "When you put a snake and a rat and a falcon and a rabbit and a shark and a seal in a zoo without walls, things start getting nasty and bloody." Also, Defense Secretary James Mattis compares Trump to a fifth-grader -- for which he really should apologize immediately... to fifth graders.

Continue Reading »

From The Archives -- Labor's Agenda Should Become Democrats' Top Priorities

[ Posted Monday, September 3rd, 2018 – 16:39 UTC ]

Happy Labor Day, everyone!

I wrote the following column last year, and sadly it still mostly applies. The Democratic Party has made some progress on the following issues, but by and large it has been individual Democratic candidates who have been left to carry this banner forward -- some of whom have done so in remarkable ways. Many pro-Labor and Progressive candidates have now advanced to the general election as Democratic nominees, which is good news. And, it must be said, when you discount all the hand-wringing happening inside the Beltway over what Democrats should be campaigning on, out in the rest of the country, Democrats have been running pretty solid campaigns on precisely the issues voters want addressed in a positive manner: healthcare, education, and lots of pro-Labor pocketbook issues.

Even so, I thought it was worth a reminder of how Labor issues could and should be at the center of the Democratic Party's agenda, because they are issues that could make life better for millions upon millions of Americans, especially those who don't even have the option of joining a Union. We now have a year and a half of Republican rule (House, Senate, and White House), so comparing the record of what they've done for working-class Americans (not much) to what could be achieved with a little political will is a pretty easy (and stark) contrast to make.

So here is last year's column, which would need very little updating to reflect the current situation (other than drawing those contrasts with the Republicans' actual record, really). Enjoy, and hope everyone had a happy Labor Day weekend.

 

Originally published September 4, 2017

Since today is Labor Day, I thought it was time to point out something that seems incredibly obvious to me. If you listen to the inside-the-Beltway chatter, Democrats are currently seen as floundering around, searching for an agenda. This is less true than the cocktail-party-circuit crowd believes, but whatever. Simultaneously, Democrats are urged to try to win back the working-class vote, because Donald Trump supposedly seduced them all away with his empty promises. Again, the answer to this perceived problem is pretty obvious. The Democratic Party needs to rededicate itself to the Labor agenda -- thus giving it a solid agenda to fight for, and also a perfect way to woo back white working-class voters.

Continue Reading »

Friday Talking Points [498] -- Remembering John McCain, Good And Bad

[ Posted Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 17:19 UTC ]

We have to begin today, sadly, by speaking ill of the dead. However, we do so respectfully (unlike some other folks have done this week). We fully realize it is a serious breach of etiquette, but in all the laudatory remarks given this week about the late Senator John McCain, there has been one glaring omission. Because, more than anyone else, John McCain is responsible for regularizing the concept that a know-nothing could be considered presidential. Some might push the blame back further, to George H. W. Bush, who selected Dan Quayle as his vice president, but McCain certainly shoulders the lion's share of this blame for deciding that Sarah Palin was qualified to be president. Anyone listening to her speak for more than two minutes could easily tell how misguided the idea of her running the country truly was, after all. And yet McCain went ahead and selected her anyway.

Palin won't be at John McCain's funeral, since she was on the short list of people "disinvited" by McCain and his family. This list also included President Donald Trump and Steve Schmidt, McCain's former campaign manager. Several other former McCain aides were likewise excluded from the ceremonies. This avoids having any reminder of the McCain/Palin ticket on television screens, but no one should forget that just being a "maverick" isn't always such a good thing. If Palin hadn't been elevated to the national political stage, it is debatable whether Donald Trump would be where he is today. The Republican Party had to go out of its way to defend Palin as a candidate, and by doing so seriously weakened the concept of who should and who should not be considered presidential material by the public. So while we are not detracting from all the good things John McCain accomplished during his extraordinary life of public service, we do feel it necessary to point out that we're still living with the fallout from what was quite possibly his biggest mistake ever.

Continue Reading »