Obviously, Democrats need to do something different over the next year if they're going to have any chance at all in the midterm elections. That was the overwhelming message from last night's dismal election returns. Because what they just tried pretty obviously didn't work. At least, on a small scale. The off-off-year elections which always follow a presidential year only include two statewide races, in New Jersey and Virginia. That is a very small slice of America, but it's all the data we have to work with, so the natural inclination is to draw national political lessons from it all. Some will wind up being correct, some won't. After reading some other people's opinions about last night, here are the ones I'm inclined to believe right now:

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I'm not usually that a big fan of (or any kind of rosy-tinted optimist about) legislative compromises. Or incrementalism, in general. But the deal Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced today on prescription drug relief doesn't actually sound all that bad. It certainly has its drawbacks -- parts of it are incredibly limited, for one -- but it also will fundamentally change things to the point where improving upon the basic idea will only require a little future number-tweaking. Which seems good enough, at this point (and with this Congress). So I have to say: this is not too bad for "half a loaf."

Prescription drug pricing reform is complicated -- there are a lot of ideas how to achieve it and a lot of things that could be done to rein in the worst excesses of the pharmaceutical industry (of which there are legion). This bill won't attempt them all, but it will do enough of them to build a solid base that can be later improved upon.

Here's a quick rundown of three of the biggest features of the announced deal:

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All eyes in the political world today are on Virginia. Whatever happens in tomorrow's gubernatorial election is going to, in large part, drive the entire political narrative for at least the next 3-to-6 months. If the Democrat wins, it will be seen as a sign that Republicans should worry that they may be permanently losing the suburban voters who defected from their party under Trump -- even without Trump on the ballot. If the Republican wins, it will be seen as a sign of a possible giant red wave in the midterm elections next year, and the triumph of Trumpism even when Trump isn't on the ballot. Neither of these storylines will be completely accurate -- voters' motivations are a lot more complicated than pundits like to imagine -- but these storylines will still dominate the political strategizing as we head into the midterm season. Which is why everyone is metaphorically holding their breath waiting to see the Virginia results.

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After being too despondent last year to write a Hallowe'en column (which is understandable, since the reality of the situation -- with Trump possibly about to win a second term -- was so horrendously scary I found I just couldn't top it), we return this year with our slate of annual tales of horror, for those on both the right and the left.

So sit down, imagine me holding a flashlight under my chin in a darkened room or campsite somewhere, and let me terrify you right down to your toes.

One technical note before we begin, I thought the Jack O'Lanterns turned out decently this year, although for the first one, I could obviously have chosen a different subject matter (from the title alone, really). But that would have meant it couldn't have turned out "decently," so I chose a map of Virginia instead. The second one is pretty self-evident, though.

So again, sit back, relax, and prepare to be horrified and frightened half out of your wits (by my two spine-chilling scenarios to make people on both sides of the aisle go screaming into the night).

And I hope everyone has a safe and happy Hallowe'en this weekend!

Democratic Nightmare -- Team S & M

Senators Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin simply cannot be budged in the negotiations over the Build Back Better bill. They keep making more and more new demands, slashing everything worthwhile in the bill to the absolute bone (or jettisoning them altogether) until it gets to the point that even Joe Biden gives up on "compromise." The sad reality is that what the tabloid papers start calling "Team S & M" has never been interested in seeing this bill pass in any form, which they finally make clear to everyone.

Because the Build Back Better bill collapses, the progressives take their own revenge by tanking the bipartisan infrastructure bill that Sinema was instrumental in negotiating. Which means congressional Democrats have spent roughly the past six or eight months accomplishing absolutely nothing.

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Program Note: As I mentioned yesterday, today I was busy getting my booster shot and dealing with pumpkins. So today here's a column from yesteryear (2007, to be exact).

It's pretty frightening, and although it hasn't completely come true, what with the supply chain problems we've had and the pandemic and all, I thought it was definitely time to run this one again. The scariest thing in it? "Perhaps there is a huge epidemic which comes out of China." Certainly sent a shiver up my spine when I re-read that part. Anyway, enjoy and check back tomorrow for this year's installment of spooky stories (and pumpkins!).

Originally published October 31, 2007

I boarded the train in one of those Eastern European capitals that make you feel like you've stepped back about a century in time. The train car itself did nothing to dispel this notion, as the windows looked like they had last been cleaned promptly after World War I... and forgotten ever since. The upholstery on the seats was worn and threadbare, but when I sat down in one, I found that at least they were well-padded and comfortable. I settled in and looked around at my fellow travelers.

There were a few groups of people strung out throughout the train car, who all ignored me completely. They looked like tired commuters on their way home, and this proved to be the case, as they all got off at the first dozen or so stops on the outskirts of the city. I thought I would be alone for the rest of the journey, but at the last suburban stop a very old woman got on and sat down across from me. She looked a little spooky, with an eyepatch over one eye, and a bandanna tied over her hair. A mystical perfume which hinted at far-off bazaars wafted its way over to me. Her wizened visage examined me critically, and I was surprised to see a small smirk develop on her face as she did so.

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I don't know about any of the rest of you, but at this point I'm getting pretty sick and tired of reading the output of the rumor-mill each morning. Especially since most of the rumors seem to have come true, and each and every one of them involves yet another ambitious campaign promise made by Joe Biden which has now fallen by the wayside solely because Senators Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin keep shifting their ideological demands about what agenda items are worthy for inclusion in what was supposed to be the flagship of Biden's entire domestic legacy. That flagship has shrunk from being a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to now more resembling a medium-sized Coast Guard cutter. Don't get me wrong, a Coast Guard cutter is a fine ship and all, but it (obviously) can do far less than a flattop.

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For whatever reason, New Jersey and Virginia set themselves up as political harbinger states. They hold their gubernatorial elections the year after presidential elections, and since they're the only two such races in the country in these off years, they almost always get plenty of national attention. The question now (as always) is: "What are the chances for the party in power in next year's midterm elections?" The fact that these two races don't always accurately predict much of anything when it comes to midterms is always conveniently ignored, as the pundits spend months dissecting both the build-up and the aftermath of the two state contests. This year is no different, and all eyes are on Virginia (since New Jersey seems safely in the Democratic column, this time around).

At this point, nobody has any idea of the outcome. There are a lot of factors at play, some of which could change by Election Day. There are two strains of conventional big-picture wisdom competing for attention in the punditocracy which contradict each other. Depending on the outcome, one will become ascendant afterwards as a frame to explain the election.

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If Joe Biden only had one recalcitrant senator to deal with on his Build Back Better agenda, this wouldn't all be ending in so much disappointment. If it was just one of them (or even two who were united in their objections), then the horse-trading would have been a lot easier. As it stands though, the tag team of Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are ripping so much out of Biden's overall plan that it is almost guaranteed to be disappointing to most of the Democratic voters who heard Biden campaigning for president. Some might be disappointed that tuition-free community college is not going to happen, while others will be disappointed that there will be no significant reduction in prescription drug prices. Still others will become disillusioned at all the cutbacks the Child Tax Credit seems to be undergoing. The number of issues where the reality of any deal is now going to fall far shorter than the promises means a whole bunch of single-issue (or even "major-issue") voters are going to feel let down. And that could be crucial for the Democratic Party's chances in the next few elections (including Biden's himself, if he chooses to run for re-election).

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This week, the House of Representatives declared that Steve Bannon was contemptible. Well, that's not strictly legally accurate -- they actually officially held him in contempt of Congress, but it's more fun to say it the other way. Because he so obviously is, of course.

Democrats were patting themselves on the back for "moving quickly" on the issue, which is kind of a joke -- it is now almost ten months after the January 6th insurrectionist attack on the Capitol, and the select committee investigating it has only now gotten around to attempting to call their first contentious and politically-charged witness. This Congress only lasts until January of 2023, which is only 15 months away. If the committee hasn't finished by that point, it will be disbanded (if Republicans win back control of the chamber). In other words, time's a-wastin'.

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So we're now really down to: "Build Back Smaller." Once again, Democrats have taken what could have been monumentally historic change and watered it down to the point where many Democratic voters are going to actually wind up disappointed, even if a deal is struck and something passes Congress and is signed into law by President Joe Biden. Whatever passes will still be historic legislation, just as Obamacare was (and still is), but a lot of Democratic voters will inevitably be left with a strong sense of "what might have been."

As with the passage of Obamacare, no doubt some progressives (including Biden himself -- after all, this is his agenda, that he explicitly ran on in his presidential campaign) will promise to revisit all the things which got left out (or are going to get left out, before we're done). I have two words in response to this, before I ever even hear it: "public option." Still waiting for that one, guys....

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