ChrisWeigant.com

Will Omicron Wind Up Being Good News?

[ Posted Wednesday, December 22nd, 2021 – 16:08 UTC ]

I know it runs counter to the prevailing storyline out there, and the evidence is in no way complete yet, but I think it's time to get just a wee bit more optimistic about the overall effects of the Omicron mutation of the COVID-19 virus. Because it (or perhaps the next Greek-lettered variant to follow it) could wind up being our way out of this whole pandemic mess.

I realize this could be too rosy-tinted to yet believe. But it also could be true. Two emerging facts stand out: The first is that Omicron seems to have traded being more lethal for being more transmissible. The second is that this is the way most pandemics eventually die out, and become just another subset of "the annual seasonal flu."

Again, all the data are not yet in. But what has been reported, so far, is incredibly encouraging. Yes, the variant is unbelievably transmissible -- far so than any other strain to date. That sounds scary. But what does it mean, in reality? It means that Delta is disappearing fast. It is being out-competed. In two weeks' time, Omicron went from a tiny fraction of the reported cases in America to nearly three-fourths of all new cases (this even goes as high as 90 percent, in some areas). That is astoundingly fast for one variant to kick another one out of circulation. If it continues, within another week or two, Delta will have all but disappeared from the world stage.

That will be a victory. Delta is much deadlier than Omicron, from all reports (again: too soon to say definitively, but it sure looks that way). Eradicating it in favor of a much less lethal variant will mean fewer people die, in the end.

Omicron is not even particularly bad, when comparing the effects on most people who contract it with all the other variants. It causes a milder sickness, fewer hospitalizations, and less death. Among the vaccinated, these beneficial effects become much more pronounced. Among the boosted, even more so. And we're getting a lot closer to the fabled herd immunity than we were when Delta began raging. If you look at the population of people age 12 and up (which includes the first two groups to have been approved for vaccination, 16-plus and then 12-to-15), now a full 71 percent of them have been fully vaccinated, while 83 percent of them have gotten at least their first shots. That's pretty good, although it obviously could be better. But it's a lot better than it was when Delta began.

Next, the news from South Africa, where this variant was first noticed. Here's the key passage of an article containing some very good news:

South Africa's top infectious-disease scientist, who has been leading the country's pandemic response, said Wednesday that the country had rapidly passed the peak of new Omicron cases and, judging by preliminary evidence, he expected "every other country, or almost every other, to follow the same trajectory."

"If previous variants caused waves shaped like Kilimanjaro, omicron's is more like we were scaling the North Face of Everest," Salim Abdool Karim said in an interview, referring to the near-vertical increase in infections that South Africa recorded in the first weeks of December.

"Now we're going down, right back down, the South Face -- and that is the way we think it may work with a variant like Omicron, and perhaps even more broadly what we'll see with subsequent variants at this stage of the pandemic," he said.

If this proves to be true, not just in South Africa but everywhere, then it will be good news indeed. This could mean America could see new cases continue to spike until early January, and then collapse in the latter half of the month. Seeing a wave go down so fast will be a gigantic relief, but it will be an even bigger victory if Omicron wipes out Delta during the spike.

Virus mutations often make the trade of lethality for better transmissibility, historically speaking. This is how the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic ended -- rather abruptly, in fact. A wave came along with a variant that was much more successful at spreading but was nowhere near as lethal as its precursors. So the Spanish Flu wasn't wiped off the face of the Earth, but it did just become one of many different strains of the yearly seasonal flu. Nobody gets specifically vaccinated for the Spanish Flu these days, although many get their annual flu shots. That's how COVID could end, too. If it becomes roughly only as lethal as the normal flu, then the pandemic will essentially be over.

Again, it is far too early to tell whether Omicron will fully accomplish this or not. It may only prove to be an interim variant. We may wind up with the Sigma or Upsilon variant (or whichever Greek letter) being the final one -- or the final one that normal people know about (there may be further mutations which will only interest epidemiologists). Another variant may complete the migration which Omicron has begun -- because it will be even more transmissible than Omicron, but not as deadly or severe as even the relatively-mild Omicron.

This is Darwin's natural selection at work, just at light speed (in terms of the normal speed of mutation of all species). And it can be a good thing. A very good thing. Perhaps Omicron won't be the end of the road, perhaps we'll have to wait for the next wave for that to happen. But if it even gets us closer to that goal, it will be worth celebrating.

This hasn't been the happiest of holiday seasons, and a big reason for that has been the concern over Omicron. But if it turns out to be a paper tiger -- but one that at least kills off Delta -- then all this worry may soon turn to relief. And wouldn't that be a great way to start off the new year?

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

35 Comments on “Will Omicron Wind Up Being Good News?”

  1. [1] 
    John M from Ct. wrote:

    Well, that's an upbeat posting if ever I read one. Thanks very much!

  2. [2] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Hope ain't a strategy that will get us all out of this pandemic, I'm sorry to say.

  3. [3] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    And, we can't boost our way out of it, either, just to be clear.

  4. [4] 
    Mezzomamma wrote:

    The news is not unalloyed good news, but there's room for hope. Yes, it is increasingly likely that covid-19 will become something on the order of winter flu. But even an 'ordinary' winter flu is fatal to some every winter, especially among the very elderly and immuno-compromised. Remember, colds are also corona viruses, though less lethal, and the reason there's no cold vaccine for colds is that they mutate so often and so quickly.

    So widespread prevention measures now and during any future outbreaks are a really good idea, particularly wearing face coverings in enclosed and crowded spaces, reducing crowding, better ventilation in schools, and so on. In parts of Asia, face coverings are routine during flu season.

    Disclosure: my youngest and her husband, both vaccinated but not eligible for the booster in time, both had omicron at the busiest time of the year for musicians. They mostly have to travel to work on crowded public transport, where people had stopped wearing masks until a couple of weeks ago, largely thanks to the bl**dy Tory government. They lost at least a week of work each, but at least weren't seriously ill and have recovered in time for Christmas visits.

    That's nothing, of course, compared to the millions worldwide who were seriously ill over the course of the pandemic and the people who won't be here to spend a holiday with family.

  5. [5] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Let's HOPE that there won't emerge a variant that is both extremely transmissable AND deadly.

    That particular outcome is directly proportional to the fact that three billion people in our world still have no access to vaccines for even their first dose.

    God help us all.

  6. [6] 
    Mezzomamma wrote:

    Indeed, Elizabeth, but the spokesperson I heard this morning (sorry, didn't catch what body) recommended that European countries with high population density and higher numbers of elderly and vulnerable people should provide boosters while supporting first and second doses for unvaccinated parts of the world. We can all help by donating to reliable charities which are enabling vaccine programs in the rest of the world.

  7. [7] 
    Michale wrote:

    The entire COVID debacle has been one BS hysterical fear-mongering after another..

    At first, Democrats hyped it up as a way to attack President Trump. Since the Russia Collusion Delusion totally fell flat and is, even now, being exposed as the Democrat con to rival Global Warming in it's insidiousness and far-reaching implications...

    Democrats were totally bitch-slapped when their Russia Collusion Delusion fell flat and were desperate to open up new lines of attacks to bring down President Trump..

    Along comes a normal cyclical pandemic and Democrats embraced it as manna from heaven..

    Let's take a moment to analyze the established FACTS.. Since multi-link comments are moderated, I will provide supporting links/quotes upon request..

    FACT #1
    According to the CD&GC, only 6% of the total death toll claimed by COVID hysteria'ists actually died from COVID... The other 94% included in the "COVID" death toll actually died of other causes, of which COVID may or may not have contributed.. They listed a motorcycle accident death as a COVID death fer christ's sake!! So the number being batted around today, 700,000 Americans dead from COVID is actually only around 40,000 who ACTUALLY died from COVID... A high casualty count for a cyclical pandemic, to be sure.. But nothing really out of the ordinary.. Especially when compared to # of annual deaths caused by other causes totally un-related to the medical field..

    FACT #2
    According to the WHO, COVID in it's original form was no more lethal than the seasonal flu.. According to the CD&GC, seasonal flu deaths total 50,000+ *EVERY YEAR*... And we are entering the 3rd year of COVID and the actual COVID death toll hasn't even reached ONE year of the seasonal flu..

    So, how do we know that this was all politics by Democrats to attack President Trump??

    When President Trump's team first developed the vaccinations for COVID, both Basement Biden and Horizontal Harris began the Vaccine Hesitancy movement..

    They both slammed and attacked President Trump and stated for the record that they would not take any vaccine developed under President Trump's guidance or any vaccine that President Trump urged everyone to get...

    Prima Facie evidence that COVID was a political agenda to be deployed at will (Ya really gotta feel sorry for poor Will) to swat down political enemies..

    How do we know?? Because when Basement Biden "miraculously" won the election, all of the sudden, Democrats changed their turn on President Trump's vaccine..

    NOW, ALL OF THE SUDDEN the vaccine was a MUST HAVE and Basement Biden created rules to FORCE people to take the vaccine!! They EXACT SAME vaccine that Biden and Harris denigrated and recommended that EVERY AMERICAN should stay as far away from as possible...

    The COVID pandemic is real.. It's a cyclical pandemic that hits the world every few years....

    It's NOTHING worth destroying WHOLE world economies over..

    The COVID pandemic is real..

    The Democrats' response to it and use of it to achieve political ends??

    That's the fakery.. That's the hysterical and baseless fear-mongering..

    THAT's the hoax that President Trump was referring to..

    And, as the facts clearly prove..

    President Trump was, once again, dead on ballz accurate..

  8. [8] 
    Michale wrote:

    Having said all that, let me say this..

    The commentary above is accurate..

    Omicron IS nothing to worry about.. It's symptoms are even milder than Delta which was even milder than the original COVID..

    COVID had a 98%+ survival rate.. Delta had a 99%+ survival rate.. Extrapolating along those lines, it's reasonable to postulate that Omicron has an even HIGHER survival rate, closer to 100% than Delta...

    Speaking of my own experience with COVID x 2...

    The first time, I was sick as sick could be.. The first 24hrs, I thought I was going to die.. Literally.. I remember thinking that I didn't want to go to the hospital because I didn't want to die alone.. The next 36hrs were worse and I WANTED to die.. After that, I got incrementally better until at 2 weeks, I was pretty much back to normal..

    The second time, about a year later, I had mild flu symptoms. So mild in fact, I COULD have gone to work and snowplowed my way thru it.. But I didn't want to get anyone else sick, so I stayed home.. Again, at 2 weeks, literally to the day, I was fine and back to work..

    And other than a loss of smell, I am 100%...

    So, to sum up..

    COVID ain't all that.. Delta is even LESS than ain't all that.. And Omicron?? Jeeze... :eyeroll....

  9. [9] 
    Michale wrote:

    Prima Facie evidence that COVID was a political agenda to be deployed at will (Ya really gotta feel sorry for poor Will) to swat down political enemies..

    More evidence that the COVID hysteria is all political???

    We have had COVID.. Then we had DELTA..

    By scientific progression, the next wave should have been called XI.. But, because that might be offensive to the Chinese leader, a POLITICAL decision was made to skip XI and go to OMICRON...

    Politics over science.. It's the Democrat Party way...

    Every bit of Democrat "science" has started out as Democrat activism...

    Amazing...

  10. [10] 
    Michale wrote:

    Since I have proven beyond ANY doubt that Democrat COVID hysteria and fear-mongering is nothing but a political dis-information campaign very poorly disguised as "science", let's look at MORE ways that Democrats try to lie and dis-inform the American people..

    The Real Disinformation Agents: Watch as NBC News Tells Four Blatant Lies in a Two-Minute Clip
    The same corporate outlets that most vocally profess concern over disinformation are the ones spreading it most casually. NBC's Assange report is the perfect case study.

    https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-real-disinformation-agents-watch

    It's amazing how the likes of Glenn Greenwald (and, to a lesser extent, Bill Maher) have fallen so far from the graces of the Left Wingery..

    Like Donald Trump himself, Greenwald and Maher used to be honored and adored by Democrats far and wide as paragons of virtue and Democrat brilliance..

    But then they all started straying from the Party line to various degrees??? And now they are Mark Pellegrino's Own Spawn...

    This is the disaster that Progressive Democrats have wrought upon this country..

    I miss the liberals of yesteryear.. They were annoying as frak and so accommodating to a fault, but at least they weren't the maniacal blow hards of today's Progressives who are as violent and as bigoted as they accuse others of being..

    Andrew Sullivan said it best..

    Liberalism leaves you alone. {Progressivism} will never let go of you. Liberalism is only concerned with your actions. {Progressivism} is concerned with your mind, your psyche, and the deepest recesses of your soul. Liberalism will let you do your job, and let you keep your politics private. {Progressivism} will force you into a struggle session as a condition for employment.
    -Andrew Sullivan

  11. [11] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Mezzomamma,

    Yes, indeed - both can and should be done!

  12. [12] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Michale,

    These SARS-CoV-2 variants of monitoring, interest and concern are named by the WHO.

    While the WHHO is made up of 194 member states (including the US, Russia, Canada and China) and diplomacy is a big part of how that organization operates, it ain't the Democratic party, I can assure you.

    :-)

  13. [13] 
    Michale wrote:

    While the WHO is made up of 194 member states (including the US, Russia, Canada and China) and diplomacy is a big part of how that organization operates, it ain't the Democratic party, I can assure you.

    I would refute that since I am referring to the US GOVERNMENT, not the Democrat Party.. And the US Government has considerable sway with the WHO.. And the US Government IS the Democrat Party...

    Irregardless of that, it doesn't matter WHO (er.. no pun intended :D) is politicizing COVID..

    The fact is, it IS being politicized and failure to acknowledge that is not staying true to the facts...

  14. [14] 
    C. R. Stucki wrote:

    Michale

    I've said from the beginning that "Pandemic" is a mis-pronunciation. The word is actually Dempanic!

  15. [15] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    812,069 Americans dead from Coronavirus and counting...

    Those who have had COVID twice have no standing on this subject. Example: your facts in [7] are complete and total bullshit. You just make this shit up on the fly?

  16. [16] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Stucki-

    Well in your case a dumbpanic...

  17. [17] 
    Michale wrote:

    CRS,

    I've said from the beginning that "Pandemic" is a mis-pronunciation. The word is actually Dempanic!

    Word.....

  18. [18] 
    Michale wrote:

    Hi Bashi!! :D

    812,069 Americans dead from Coronavirus and counting...

    Not factually accurate..

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

    Only 6% of that total are ACTUAL COVID deaths.. The other 94%, according to the CD&GC, actually died of other causes, of which COVID may or may not have contributed..

    The afore mentioned motorcycle accident victim listed as a COVID death is a prime example of this mislabeling COVID deaths to serve a political agenda..

    Sorry, but the facts prove your claims to be factually not accurate..

    Example: your facts in [7] are complete and total bullshit

    Facts to support??? No?? Of course you don't.. :D

    But it's nice ta see you anyways.. :D

  19. [19] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Pneumonia is a symptom of COVID.

    Facts to support???

    As usual your link provides all the facts to back me up...

  20. [20] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    The afore mentioned motorcycle accident victim listed as a COVID death is a prime example of this mislabeling COVID deaths to serve a political agenda..

    Can you post a link? There are many indirect deaths due to COVID. If you have a heart attack that could easily be saved by quick medical care but can't get an ICU bed for 8 hours because they are taken by COVID patients, what is the real cause of death?

  21. [21] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    What I don't get about the right wing COVID conspiracy is it's a world wide problem. Sure we have the most deaths, yay were number one! But if you think it is some left wing media conspiracy, how about the BBC or DW or Israeli news or Korean news or Canadian news or Indian news et. It's like the right's Occam's razor is as dull as a butter knife...

  22. [22] 
    Michale wrote:

    What I don't get about the right wing COVID conspiracy is it's a world wide problem. Sure we have the most deaths, yay were number one! But if you think it is some left wing media conspiracy, how about the BBC or DW or Israeli news or Korean news or Canadian news or Indian news et. It's like the right's Occam's razor is as dull as a butter knife...

    You don't think those other governments are enjoying unprecedented levels of governmental control over the sheep???

    If you take into account Lord Acton's quote, Occams Razor in this context is sharp as a.. well.. razor...

  23. [23] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    As usual your link provides all the facts to back me up...

    Heh.

  24. [24] 
    Michale wrote:

    As usual your link provides all the facts to back me up...

    Heh.

    Save yer 'heh' til Bashi actually BACKS UP his claim..

    heh :D

  25. [25] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Michale,

    It is endlessly foolish to minimize and otherwise distort the reality of a very deadly pandemic.

  26. [26] 
    Michale wrote:

    Except that I am not minimizing or distorting a VERY deadly pandemic..

    I am relaying the FACTS as put out by the CD&GC and the WHO that proves beyond ANY doubt that COVID ain't all that...

    98%+ survival rate on COVID.. 99%+ survival rate on DELTA.. OMICRON, by WEIGANTIA'S(™michale) *OWN* estimation.. Nothing but a mild flu...

    I have also provided facts that prove that the Democrat response to COVID is *solely* based on a political agenda and not on any estimated seriousness of the pandemic...

    "Just the fact, ma'am."
    -Sgt Joe Friday

  27. [27] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Save yer 'heh' til Bashi actually BACKS UP his claim..

    You backed up my claim for me. I know, I know reading the links you post is beyond you but you might try that site. I masked and am vaxed and boosted and you know what? I've had COVID ZERO times. You seem to be trying hard to complete the trifecta...

  28. [28] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Nothing but a mild flu...

    More like a bad cold. It has mutated to attack the upper respiratory system and lost much of it's ability to attack the lungs...

  29. [29] 
    Michale wrote:

    You backed up my claim for me.

    Not factually accurate...

    Provide the cite within the link that says what you claim it says..

    Until you can do that, you are simply making unfounded and fact-less claims..

    I masked and am vaxed and boosted and you know what? I've had COVID ZERO times.

    Which proves as much as me claiming that the vaccine doesn't work because tens of thousands of people who are vaccinated have come down with COVID..

    Come to think of it, my claim has a lot more factual validity to it then yours does..

    More like a bad cold.

    Not factually accurate.. Did you not read the commentary??? :eyeroll:

  30. [30] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Provide the cite within the link that says what you claim it says..

    See column [1] from your link that says:

    All deaths from COVID-19 [1] = 808,986

    Then look at the footnote for [1]:

    [1] Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1.

    From the "technical notes" link on the bottom of the page to which you posted:

    Coronavirus disease deaths are identified using the ICD–10 code U07.1. Deaths are coded to U07.1 when coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19 are reported as a cause that contributed to death on the death certificate. These can include laboratory confirmed cases, as well as cases without laboratory confirmation. If the certifier suspects COVID-19 or determines it was likely (e.g., the circumstances were compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), they can report COVID-19 as “probable” or “presumed” on the death certificate (5, 6). COVID-19 is listed as the underlying cause on the death certificate in 92% of deaths (see Table 1).

    Which proves as much as me claiming that the vaccine doesn't work because tens of thousands of people who are vaccinated have come down with COVID..

    No, that just proves you have no idea how vaccines work. What was the outcome of those who were vaccinated? How did the disease progress compared to the unvaccinated?

  31. [31] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Not factually accurate.. Did you not read the commentary??? :eyeroll:

    Is the eyeroll a symptom of long covid?

    News report from yesterday:[cbs17.com]

    Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Study app, said “As our latest data shows, omicron symptoms are predominantly cold symptoms, runny nose, headache, sore throat and sneezing, so people should stay at home as it might well be COVID.”

  32. [32] 
    C. R. Stucki wrote:

    BB [16]

    Hey, I totally agree, "Dumbpanic" is almost as accurate as "Dempanic"!

  33. [33] 
    Michale wrote:

    Bashi,

    In other words, the link proves MY point...

    they can report COVID-19 as “probable” or “presumed” on the death certificate (5, 6). COVID-19 is listed as the underlying cause on the death certificate in 92% of deaths (see Table 1).

    92% of those that died did NOT die of COVID, but rather COVID was an underlying cause, not THE cause.

    Thank you for pointing that out..

    I accept your concession. :D

    No, that just proves you have no idea how vaccines work. What was the outcome of those who were vaccinated? How did the disease progress compared to the unvaccinated?

    Once again, you use gobbledy-gook and mis-direction to obfuscate the obvious..

    Tens of thousands of vaccinated people have gotten sick from COVID even though they were vaccinated..

    This is fact..

    From that fact, the logical conclusion is that the vaccine does not work in all people..

    Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Study app, said “As our latest data shows, omicron symptoms are predominantly cold symptoms, runny nose, headache, sore throat and sneezing, so people should stay at home as it might well be COVID.”

    And look... The word "BAD" is not in there whatsoever..

    Once again, you prove my point.. Yer such a mensch.. :D

    So, when you say that Omicron is nothing more than a "BAD cold" you are factually not accurate.. As I said..

    Now, if you want to say that Omicron is rather like a cold than a flu, then I would say that is a toMAYto/toMAAto type comparison..

    But, if it would soothe yer ego (since you have been slapped down so badly here) I'll be the bigger man and agree with you.. :D

  34. [34] 
    Michale wrote:

    CRS,

    Hey, I totally agree, "Dumbpanic" is almost as accurate as "Dempanic"!

    I agree as well.. DEMPANIC = DUMBPANIC

    We all agree..

    Common ground.. A wonderful thing... :D

  35. [35] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    92% of those that died did NOT die of COVID, but rather COVID was an underlying cause, not THE cause.

    Thank you for pointing that out..

    Your welcome. Too bad you still don't understand it. The underlying cause is the cause. That's what they mean by underlying cause. Still don't believe me? Try a dictionary...

    Tens of thousands of vaccinated people have gotten sick from COVID even though they were vaccinated..

    And 50 million have gotten COVID who were not vaccinated. Thanks for proving vaccines work. Good job!

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