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The two prevailing views so far seem to be: "Good news for Republicans!" and, alternatively, "Good news for Democrats!" It is possible that neither are true, and yet neither entirely false. There was certainly some interesting news, but it's tough to read amongst all the spin.
The day before I cast my vote for Barack Obama, I wrote a column titled "Barack Obama Is Smarter Than Us." By "us," I meant the legions of us lefty bloggers out here, who second-guessed his campaign on a daily basis for nigh on two years. I included myself in that "us" as well -- because, I fully admit, I got incredibly frustrated during Obama's campaign when he didn't do what I really, really wanted him to. Or didn't do it fast enough to suit me.
I know I'm supposed to be talking about the off-year (or even "off-off-year") elections happening today, but I really don't think it's worth the effort. I recently heard a pundit on a talk show give the most honest answer I've ever heard to the question: "Do off-year elections reflect upon the president, or the party in power, or national trends?" The pundit answered, with a grin on his face: "Depends on who wins."
Much like Sherlock Holmes' non-barking nocturnal canine, the remarkable thing about President Barack Obama's poll numbers last month was that nothing remarkable happened. Both trendlines were pretty flat for the month, which was the second month in a row of little movement. Things are not getting much better for Obama's approval rate, but then neither are they getting much worse.
The Lieberman story will run its course, no matter what the outcome. But it is my guess that even if Lieberman is dragged back into the fold, that there are a few other senators who would also enjoy a little national media attention by appearing to be on the fence. Lieberman is currently out there dancing around whether he will be the Democrats' 60th senator or not. But he's not going to be the last one to occupy that particular spotlight before we're done. The only question in my mind is how many of the fence-sitters and mugwumps will take advantage of this opportunity to be a media darling for a few days. Or weeks.
Idealistically, this means that politicians will do the best possible job to further their constituents' interests in Congress, in the hopes of riding a wave of approval during their next election. Cynically, this means that politicians will do the absolute minimum necessary for "The People," while keeping their deep-pocket donors happy by doing what they're told to do in Congress -- and hoping that "The People" don't notice.
OK, people, that was a good half. We made some mistakes, we took some hits, but at the end of the half, we put five field goals up on the board. That's good enough for a first half, but we've got to score some touchdowns in the second half, or we're just not going to win this thing.
While the passage of a healthcare reform bill through Max Baucus' Senate Finance Committee is the big news today, the even bigger news is that Republican Senator Olympia Snowe voted for it, the only Republican so far to cross the aisle in support of Democratic efforts to pass a bill this year. While Snowe warned today that just because she's voting "yea" today, she might not do so on the final bill, depending on what it looks like. While this may not even matter in terms of getting a bill through, Snowe will now be known as Senator Bipartisan, since with her vote the claim can be made that it is "bipartisan legislation," but if Democrats lose her they won't be able to make this claim. But while courting Snowe for her vote on the Senate floor is the only way to accomplish this, Democrats should also consider courting Snowe on an even more important front: switching parties.
I say this because Obama has stopped his slide in the polls. The downward slope of his approval numbers came to a screeching halt, and instead began hovering above (but never dipping below) the 50 percent mark. Since then, they have wavered in the 50-55 point range -- not trending clearly upwards, but at least not trending clearly downwards, either. Better news for Obama fans is the fact that his disapproval numbers did actually reverse course, after hitting a mid-month peak, and have settled downwards from that point on.
Democrats may be blindsided by the whole debate, unless they start thinking about it now. Because they can be out there saying "things are great!" but unless they prepare for an onslaught of a perennial Republican refrain ("tax-and-spend Democrats!"), then Democrats run the risk of appearing all over the map on the tax issue at precisely the time when voters are making up their minds whether to send them back to Washington or not. The smartest thing they can do, at this point, is to keep calling them the "Bush" tax cuts, to remind everyone of what they did to the economy. But next year, whether they like it or not, Democrats are going to actually have to take a stand on higher taxes for rich people. If they don't figure that out now, they're in for a rude surprise next year.