As we enter our third month of what might be called "war by impulse," it's pretty easy to see that Donald Trump is flailing around and grasping at straws. He gets a bee in his bonnet, rants about it on social media for a while and then makes an ill-prepared stab at implementing it, only to change his mind and reverse course when it doesn't work out the way he thought it would. That's been the defining feature of this war from almost the very beginning.

The whole thing has been ad-libbed, from the very start. Israel said they were going to bomb an above-ground meeting of Iran's leaders, and Trump was talked into going along for the ride. A massive campaign of missiles and bombs followed, but Iran proved a lot more resilient than expected, sending their own waves of missiles and drones into neighboring countries (including Israel). The U.S. was forced to use so many of their high-tech interceptors to counter these attacks that the stores of such defensive weapons are now reportedly running low.

Iran then played the card that everyone who had ever studied what a war with them would look like fully expected -- they halted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz by launching attacks on undefended civilian ships. This drove the worldwide price of oil through the roof, which meant a whole lot of global economic pain far from the battlefield. Since then, Trump has alternated between threatening to destroy Iran's very civilization and trying to bluster them into agreeing to some sort of deal that he can tout as "total victory." So far, neither one has worked.

The height of this impulse-driven war strategy was Trump deciding to blockade Iranian ports. So for a while, both sides were bragging that they had shut down the Strait -- which doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

Talks between the two nations have gone precisely nowhere, although even the prospect of cutting a deal did result in a ceasefire that ended the bombing and missile and drone attacks. But now that ceasefire may be on the brink of collapsing, or at least being redefined. As with everything else about this war, this was not part of some grand strategy but instead another knee-jerk reaction on Trump's part.

Trump refuses to admit it, but he has been hurt badly by the rise in gas prices. He has finally met a subject he just can't successfully gaslight his way out of. He can blame everyone else under the sun and swear that gas prices aren't really all that high, but that doesn't change the fact that every American filling up their tank knows full well how bad things have gotten. It can't be ignored -- those prices are prominently displayed on giant signs all over the country. And gasoline isn't some luxury item that people can just "cut back on" for a while, they have to fill up their tanks to get to work and back. Doing so is not optional for most people who need a paycheck.

So today, Trump is trying a new impulsive move -- opening the Strait by naval force. He knows that high gas prices are going to continue (and probably continue to get worse) as long as the Strait is closed. Iran has been so successful at using it as leverage that it has made the American military look weak and ineffective on the world stage, which must enrage Trump.

So a few destroyers went in and escorted a few U.S.-flagged ships through the Strait today. Iran launched a multi-pronged attack in response, sending small boats out to attack the cargo ships and launching cruise missiles and drones. None of the attacks hit the ships being escorted, according to the Pentagon, and all the missiles shot at the destroyers and the cargo ships were shot down. The small boats were blown up. But at least one other cargo ship was hit, and oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates and Oman were struck by missiles and/or drones, sustaining damage.

That's a mixed score, at best. And it took two destroyers to escort two cargo ships through safely. Before the war, over 100 ships went through the Strait each and every day, so you can see that this isn't really going to be a very cost-effective solution to the problem. Trump is begging for all the other ships to just head through the Strait, but so far none appear convinced that it truly is safe for them to do so.

Trump is also begging China to somehow step in and save our bacon by opening the Strait. China buys a lot of Iran's oil, so they do have some leverage, but whether they are interested in bailing out Trump or not remains to be seen (so far the answer looks like "probably not"). A summit meeting is scheduled between the Chinese leader and Trump this month, and it has already had to be rescheduled once because the war was going on longer than Trump thought. If it has to be rescheduled again, America is going to look even weaker.

The strategy of reopening the Strait by force is a new one. It hasn't been tried until now because of the difficulty in doing so. But Trump is now backed into a corner, with the negotiations at a complete stalemate. Trump has obviously decided that more intensive attacks on Iran (such as putting "boots on the ground") aren't worth the risk, so his bluster about doing so without the will to follow through is now seen as an empty threat by Iran.

Where this all heads now is uncertain. Will the ceasefire collapse completely? If so, America will likely begin bombing Iran at will once again, while Iran will start taking potshots at not just ships but also oil facilities around the Gulf. This is almost guaranteed to send the price of oil even higher.

Or is this all just an impulsive show of force that has no real strategy in place behind it? That is probably a safe bet, seeing as how Trump has just been ad-libbing his way through the war from the very start. To adequately provide security for shipping through the Strait would require a huge number of American warships to be in place around the clock. It would require lots of planes and helicopters as well, and all the support ships for all of them. It would be a major military operation that could be derailed every time Iran gets lucky with one of their potshots at an oil tanker or cargo vessel (or even a U.S. warship). And it would not exactly be a good long-term solution to the problem, obviously. How long can the U.S. Navy sustain such an extensive operation? I have no idea what the answer to that is, but it is probably not "forever."

If Trump can succeed in even temporarily opening the Strait it might degrade the leverage Iran holds, though. This is what he's obviously hoping will happen. Up until now, in the negotiations, time has been on Iran's side. They think (and they are probably right) that they can suffer the economic pain of the war better than America and the rest of the world will be able to. So the longer it goes on, the stronger their position gets. Removing or even degrading the leverage of the Strait would change that dynamic in a big way.

But it's hard to see this as some sort of grand military or diplomatic strategy on Trump's part. If this is such a good idea, why wasn't it attempted a month ago? And Trump has actually been honest about the prospects of keeping the Strait open by force, as several times he has admitted that even if the Navy were 99 percent successful, all it would take would be for one ship being escorted to be hit by a cruise missile to make all the other ships' captains think twice about heading through the Strait.

So today's development seems like a trial balloon at best. To truly reopen the Strait in a meaningful way would require not just a couple of destroyers but a whole fleet of ships backed up by air support, operating on a daily basis. So far that has not happened -- but it could be the next step.

It all depends on whatever impulse Trump gets into his head next. Will he see today as a grand success and decide to implement the strategy in a much bigger way? Or will this just be more performative than anything else -- escorting a handful of ships through each day just to prove that it can be done? How serious is Trump about reopening the Strait?

As with everything else about this war, we'll just have to wait and see. If this doesn't work, Trump will doubtlessly get some other idea into his head and the military will follow along as he tries to ad-lib his way to victory.

Meanwhile, the average price of gasoline in America is about to hit $4.50.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant