[Program Note: I do realize that bigger news was made this weekend, but I find that I don't really have much to say about it that hasn't already been said -- except to note in passing that the mainstream media haven't really pointed out (at least not to the extent I would expect) that John Hinckley shot Ronald Reagan in front of the same hotel, way back when. That seems an odd omission from the story, but whatever. In any case, perhaps I'll have more to say about it later but just don't feel I have much to add to the discussion at this point. Instead, I chose to talk about the state of the war today.]

Could we be nearing an actual exit ramp in the war of choice Donald Trump started with Iran? It's hard to tell -- these diplomatic negotiations often look completely unproductive right up until both sides agree to some sort of deal, so anything's really possible. This weekend didn't see any tangible progress, as Iran refused to meet face-to-face with the U.S. team in Pakistan, which forced Trump to announce (for the second time in a week) that the U.S. team wouldn't even be flying out to Pakistan at all. This was a pretty big snub by the Iranians, but then again who knows if they had actually agreed to sit down and talk this weekend in the first place? With the best source of information being Donald Trump, you always have to wonder how much is the truth and how much of it is lies and bluster.

But apparently yesterday there were devolopments worth noting. The Iranians proposed a new plan, after Trump rejected the first plan they put on the table (on Saturday):

In the proposal Iran delivered to Pakistan on Saturday, Iran had offered a five-year suspension of its uranium enrichment, followed by five years of very low grade civilian enrichment in labs. It would have diluted its stockpile and kept half of it at home under international inspectors while giving the other half to Russia, an ally.

Trump rejected this as insufficient, so the Iranians came up with their "Plan B," which is to punt on the nuclear issue (and all the others too) and just solve the immediate problem for now, in a way where both sides can at least claim a partial victory:

Iran has offered the United States a new proposal for negotiations that focuses on opening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the U.S. sea blockade on Iran as a way of ending the war and then tackling nuclear negotiations later, according to three Iranian officials.

. . .

In the new proposal made on Sunday, Iran said that it plans to monetize the Strait of Hormuz, once it is open to maritime traffic, by charging a toll or service fees to passing tankers. Some Iranian officials have publicly floated the idea of a $2 million per vessel toll, saying the money would exceed Iran's oil revenues. But Oman, which also shares the southern part of the Strait, and other Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, oppose this idea and have called for unconditional opening of the waterway.

The idea to leave nuclear talks for a later date is an attempt to break the current stalemate, with a fragile cease-fire barely holding. The three Iranian officials said Iran does want to return to the negotiating table with the Americans, recognizing that the current status quo was not tenable, but does not want to do it while under the blockade of the U.S. Navy.

Now, this plan is not likely to survive completely intact either -- Trump and his team will likely press for no tolls on the Strait (just for starters). After all, acquiescing to a brand-new toll structure would mean America would clearly look like the loser to the rest of the world.

However, the idea of punting all the stickiest issues in order to concentrate on the immediate ones may have a certain appeal, and may survive in some form or another. Trump could claim he forced the Iranians to open the Strait with his blockade (and that he squashed their idea of charging tolls for passage), and the Iranians could claim they had forced Trump to end his blockade in order to hold more serious and comprehensive talks, without that threat hanging over them.

Of course, all it would really do would be to bring the whole situation back to the status quo ante bellum, where the Strait was freely open to passage and Iran's ports were likewise open. Neither side would have gained an inch.

But Trump may just be looking for such an offramp, even if it does just leave everything where it was before he started the bombing. After these negotiations were first announced, the average price of gasoline in America hit a high of $4.17 and then actually started coming back down. A little over a week ago, the average price was down to $3.98 -- below the psychological "four bucks a gallon" mark. Since then, however (since the talks fell apart the first time), the price has been heading back upwards once again. As of this writing, it stands at $4.14 per gallon -- only three cents lower than its previous peak. This means that within days (perhaps even by tomorrow) the price could be setting new highs once again. This would add to the nightmares happening in the Republican Party over their electoral chances in the midterm elections (which are now a little more than six months away). Trump will be under enormous pressure -- from within his own party -- to find some sort of way to get oil flowing through the Strait once again.

This would also give the Iranians what they want (and need, domestically) as well. The Iranians are masters at the game of "delay, delay, delay," after all. By holding long and drawn-out negotiations over all the other issues Trump is demanding (giving up their enriched uranium, stopping their enrichment in the future, stopping them from producing so many missiles and drones, and stopping them from financing groups like Hezbollah and Hamas) there would be no real deadline at all for any of it, which is exactly what Iran wants, at this point. As many have been pointing out, the last nuclear deal reached with Iran took a whole two years for Barack Obama and the Iranians to finalize.

Reaching an agreement on the biggest current sticking points would allow the war to end. Both sides would stop firing missiles and dropping bombs and all the rest of it. Eventually (this won't happen overnight) the Strait of Hormuz will be deemed safe to travel for all ships once again. Iran will be able to conduct business through its ports once again (selling oil to and buying stuff from the rest of the world). Both sides can claim (domestically) that they have achieved a great victory, even though the reality will be nothing short of going back to the way things were before the war started. But most Americans probably won't care, because the war itself is so unpopular and at this point anything which brings the price of gas downward will be appreciated.

The offramp is taking shape. The only question now is whether both sides will choose to take it or not. And that -- because it is such a limited sort of plan -- could actually be achieved very quickly.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant