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Republicans Fail To Make Major Gains In The House

[ Posted Tuesday, November 19th, 2024 – 16:17 UTC ]

The 2024 election is not yet over. Well, the ballots have all been cast -- the act of voting in the election is over -- but we're still waiting for the final results in a handful of districts in the House of Representatives. And right now, it is looking like the election didn't change the makeup of the House one bit. This could slightly change, but only by a small number. That's fairly remarkable in an election where the Republicans gained seats in the Senate and took back the White House.

As of this writing, there are five districts still outstanding -- two in California, one each in Iowa and Ohio, and the at-large Alaska seat. As things stand, Republicans are ahead in three of these races while Democrats lead in the other two. If that winds up being the final result, then the makeup of the House will not have changed by a single seat.

The Washington Post is still tracking the 43 House districts that were competitive this time around. Of the Democratic-held districts, Republicans have (so far) picked up four seats, but Democrats flipped five of the Republican-held districts -- leaving Democrats at plus-one for the election. With only five outstanding races, either the Republicans will wind up with exactly the same number of seats or very close to it.

This means that the balance of power will still wind up being either exactly or almost exactly what it is now. This is rather rare, by historical standards. Normally when one party does well in an election cycle, they wind up flipping a whole bunch of House seats and creating a strong majority. Of course, these days more House districts are so gerrymandered that they aren't even remotely competitive. Even so, an election that winds up with no change at all (or very little) is highly unusual. Especially when one party does well elsewhere (as the Republicans did this time around).

If all the outstanding districts do wind up as they stand now then Republicans will hold 221 seats in the incoming House while Democrats will hold 214. That only leaves the GOP with an effective three-vote majority, since all it would take is four of them to cross the aisle for any bill or measure to fail in a floor vote. Which is razor-thin, and makes it extremely hard for the speaker to get much of anything done.

When all it takes is four votes to derail anything, it empowers tiny factions within the Republican caucus to use their leverage to a maximum degree. Which we've all seen play out for the past two years. Either the radicals or the centrists balk, and the speaker is forced to cancel the vote or see the measure fail. Which has been happening on a regular basis for two years (and counting).

Of course, the overall dynamic in Washington will change. Up until this point, the contentious issues in the House have been pretty meaningless, since the Senate and the White House were in Democratic hands. The Republican-controlled House knew full well (the ones who were realistic, at the very least) that passing some budget measure or another wasn't going to change much of anything. Whether they passed an ultra-extreme budget or a not-quite-as-extreme budget, it would be completely ignored in the Senate. That will no longer be true.

The factional arguments in the House will, once the new Congress is sworn in, be newly meaningful. They won't be passing endless "messaging" bills -- they will be passing bills that stand a chance of making it through the Senate and being signed into law by the president. That is a whole new dynamic, but it actually might make things worse, in terms of how smoothly the House operates.

When GOP moderates balked at some extremist notion in a bill, it was because they were afraid their vote would be used against them by their next Democratic opponent. But either way -- whether the extremist measure passed or not -- they knew it wouldn't actually become reality, because it all would get stripped out by the Democratic Senate. That is no longer going to be true.

Moving forward, if an extremist idea makes it into a budget bill (or any other bill), it could actually become law. And that's a much more potent thing for a political opponent to point out in a campaign ad. It won't be: "Representative Smith voted for [radical idea]," instead it will be: "Representative Smith made [radical idea] become reality."

Meanwhile, the extremists will be emboldened. No longer will they have to face the fact that their ideas are never going to make it into the final bill. Instead, they will gleefully want to see all their ideas become real, with the help of a Republican Senate and president. So both the extremist faction and the centrist faction will be playing for much higher stakes.

At this point, it looks like Speaker Mike Johnson's leadership job is safe. So we won't be subject to the three-ring circus of a speaker battle for days on end this time around. But his job's going to get a lot tougher, because the radicals will be riding high and pushing their agenda as hard as they can. But not all GOP House members come from safe gerrymandered districts, and the midterms will be constantly on the minds of those who come from truly competitive districts. So the factional infighting will continue, most likely.

What will have changed is that there won't be any Democrats to blame for the failure of any one particular agenda item. The excuse of: "It doesn't matter, the Democratic Senate won't pass it" will no longer be operative. Radical ideas will now have the possibility of becoming reality.

The pressure on the moderates is going to greatly increase, of course. While they worry about their own re-election chances the entire rest of the Republican Party will be urging them to vote for all the extremist ideas. And if Trump weighs in the pressure could become absolutely unbearable. If they defy Trump, not only will centrists be worried about beating a Democrat in the midterms, they'll also likely face a full-on MAGA candidate in the primaries as well. Trump has a pretty good track record of taking out House Republicans who don't bend to his will, so this will be a real threat.

Will the razor-thin House GOP majority be the brake on the MAGA train, slowing it down and moderating their wildest impulses? Or will the moderates just jump on board and go along for the ride? The answer to all of this could be critical over the next two years. Because once again a "red wave" did not materialize in the House, which would have given the speaker a comfortable-enough margin to truly set the agenda in his chamber. Instead, he's going to have to do the same balancing act he's been doing for the past two years, trying to simultaneously please all of the smallest factions within his caucus at the same time.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

17 Comments on “Republicans Fail To Make Major Gains In The House”

  1. [1] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Will the razor-thin House GOP majority be the brake on the MAGA train, slowing it down and moderating their wildest impulses? Or will the moderates just jump on board and go along for the ride?

    Do you want me to answer that?

    Heheheheheheheheheheheheheheh.

  2. [2] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Sheeeeeeeee-it.

  3. [3] 
    Kick wrote:

    If all the outstanding districts do wind up as they stand now then Republicans will hold 221 seats in the incoming House while Democrats will hold 214.

    Keep in mind that Sexual Predator Gaetz has resigned the 118th Congress and those moronic sexual predator-supporting Floridians have also reelected him to the 119th Congress. Florida law requires a special election to fill his seat in the solidly gerrymandered Republican district... so until it's held, that margin is even thinner, but (still) nothing is likely to pass either the current or future Congress without the help of the de facto "Decider of the House" known as Hakeem Jeffries (D).

    CURRENT FACT: Nothing passes in the House if Hakeem Jeffries doesn't want it to pass, and that is because Republicans have proven time and time again that they cannot govern without the help of Democrats.

  4. [4] 
    Kick wrote:

    Remember that time Marjorie Taylor Greene filed her previously threatened motion to vacate against Mike Johnson over his support of a bipartisan $1.2 trillion government funding deal that passed with mostly Democratic votes, but then Hakeem Jeffries had it swiftly beat to a merciful death as a prearranged exchange for Johnson's cooperation in passing foreign aid to Ukraine et alia? Rhetorical question.

    Nothing passes in the House if Hakeem Jeffries doesn't want it to pass, and he is quite literally Mike Johnson's metaphorical landlord.

  5. [5] 
    Michale wrote:

    Are you REALLY that much of a moron!!??

    You seem to ignore a few minor details of the case against Gaetz — the girl was a minor when he was having sex with her.

    There are NO FACTS to support the claim that Gaetz was having sex with ANY minor, let alone this hooker.

    The ONLY evidence to support the claim is this hookers word. And, has been PROVEN in court, this hooker's word can be purchased by the highest bidder..

    What part of ZERO CREDIBILITY do you not understand?? I mean, ya'all should understand intimately, the concept of ZERO CREDIBILITY, eh??

    It's a way of life ya'all share with this 2-bit hooker..

    You simply have ZERO FACTS to support ANY of your hysterical accusations against Gaetz..

    The facts of this case PROVE it's nothing but a political vendetta. Just like ya'all's political vendetta against President Trump..

    And it will be JUST as effective as well.. Namely.. NOT AT ALL.. :D

    You people lost.. You people will continue to lose.. :D

    Either Matt Gaetz will be the next US AG... Or President Trump will out-maneuver the Demon'rats and get someone in as AG that Demon'rats hate more.. :D

    And, as is the norm these days, Demon'rats will be left holding their dicks in their hands.. :D

  6. [6] 
    Michale wrote:

    2-Brain Cell Kick Troll

    Nothing passes in the House if Hakeem Jeffries doesn't want it to pass, and he is quite literally Mike Johnson's metaphorical landlord.

    Whatever you have to tell yourself to make it thru your sad and pathetic LUSER existence.. :D

  7. [7] 
    Michale wrote:

    JL,

    enjoy the feeling, you've waited a long time for it and you're entitled to crow.

    Thanx.. It means a lot to me that I have your blessing.. :D

    but when it comes to folks like gaetz, RFK Jr or Gabbard, be careful what you wish for.

    But I am GETTING what I wish for.. :D My Demon'rat pets here in Weigantia are tearing themselves apart with hysterical doomsday fear-mongering and it's VERY entertaining. :D Puts a big smile on my face every time they get more and more hysterical..

    It's ESPECIALLY telling that these Demon'rat Weigantians keep wishing for more and more destruction of America, JUST so they can blame it on President ELECT Trump..

    How sad and pathetic is that??

    Since you are really the ONLY one there that can actually be rational and comment without hysterical nonsense (well, you and Liz) let me ask you this, JL...

    Ignoring all the lawfare persecutions, ignoring all the fact-less and total BS accusations from hookers and bimbos, ignoring that there is not a SINGLE SOLITARY provable FACT against these nominations, ignoring all the OHMIGOD HE or SHE IS HITLER!!!!! claims against Gaetz, Tabbard or RFK....

    What exactly is your beef against them??

    Remember, no hysterics, no innuendos, no rumors... Just the cold hard PROVABLE facts..

    Whatcha got against them?? Other than they support President ELECT Trump and they are patriotic Americans??

    I await your response..

  8. [8] 
    Michale wrote:

    You Demon'rats have absolutely ZERO foundation to complain about President ELECT Trump's picks...

    http://mfccfl.us/BidenPick.jpg

  9. [9] 
    Michale wrote:

    Haw bad is it for Demon'rats that the ONLY good thing (for them) they can find to say about Uber Demon'rat Decimation 2024 is that their position in the House didn't get any worse..

    BBBBBWWAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    :D

  10. [10] 
    Kick wrote:

    Michale
    5

    There are NO FACTS to support the claim that Gaetz was having sex with ANY minor, let alone this hooker.

    Only if you discount her birth certificate, her sworn testimony, the sworn testimony of eyewitnesses, the Venmo receipts, and Statutory Rapist Gaetz waiting until she was 18 before he had sexual relations with her again.

    Interesting, sickening, and infinitely pathetic and creepy to watch you repeatedly cheer on a child sexual predator who paid young girls for sex for the mere fact he's Democrat Donald's choice for United States Attorney General.

    You do realize there is a code of conduct for members of Congress? Rhetorical question:

    https://ethics.house.gov/publications/code-official-conduct

    The ONLY evidence to support the claim is this hookers word. And, has been PROVEN in court, this hooker's word can be purchased by the highest bidder..

    So apparently Gaetz was the "highest bidder" because they have the Venmo receipts, the sworn testimony, and the fact Gaetz bragged to his constituents about it. The investigation into Gaetz's sex trafficking was initiated during the Trump administration under AG Barr, and multiple persons have testified under oath that Gaetz also sought a pardon from Trump, particularly through the office of Mark Meadows. Accepting a pardon is an acknowledgement of guilt, and Gaetz was definitely there for it.

    What part of ZERO CREDIBILITY do you not understand?? I mean, ya'all should understand intimately, the concept of ZERO CREDIBILITY, eh??

    Anyone who reads your myriad of bullshit claims definitely understands the concept of zero credibility along with your terminal PTDS: President Trump's Dick Sucker.

    You simply have ZERO FACTS to support ANY of your hysterical accusations against Gaetz..

    The House Ethics Committee has the FACTS that Your Worship Democrat Donald does not want released and for which Gaetz recently resigned Congress in order to avoid the release of the FACTS and tangible receipts.

    The facts of this case PROVE it's nothing but a political vendetta. Just like ya'all's political vendetta against President Trump..

    I'd call this another one of your false equivalencies but for the FACT that Trump is a convicted felon and an adjudicated rapist in a court of law who owes hundreds of millions of dollars to his victim for being found liable in multiple courts of law for sexual assault deemed adjudicated rape and subsequent repeated defamation.

    And it will be JUST as effective as well.. Namely.. NOT AT ALL.. :D

    Like I said, you cheering on sexual predator is creepy... not at all unusual for you, obviously, but definitely pathetic.

    Either Matt Gaetz will be the next US AG... Or President Trump will out-maneuver the Demon'rats and get someone in as AG that Demon'rats hate more.. :D

    I don't think anyone hates Gaetz with the possible exception of his Republican constituents in the House since Gaetz is apparently just as popular in the House as Ted Cruz is in the Senate. Regardless all that, Gaetz is just infinitely not qualified to hold the position of "top cop" of the United States for multiple reasons.

    And, as is the norm these days, Demon'rats will be left holding their dicks in their hands.. :D

    Said the sycophantic troll cheering on sexual predators while holding Democrat Donald's dick in his mouth.

    I wonder how many more Democrats the Republicans will allow to crash their Party, and will you be sucking all their dicks? Rhetorical question.

  11. [11] 
    Kick wrote:

    Michale
    6

    Whatever you have to tell yourself to make it thru your sad and pathetic LUSER existence.. :D

    This is the response that commenters routinely receive from Michale troll when he's literally got nothing... and as the blog is archived for decades, he has demonstrably literally got one hell of a whole lot of absolutely nothing on a right regular basis to the point of ad nauseam.

  12. [12] 
    Michale wrote:

    I gave ya'all a couple hours and ya'all STILL haven't come up with a SINGLE SOLITARY FACT from a reliable source that supports ya'all's Trump/America hate and PTDS...

    Not a SINGLE SOLITARY FACT...

    Funny how that is ALWAYS the case..

    Oh yea.. Howz that POPULAR VOTE thing working out for Token DEI Hire Headboard Has Been Hooker Harris???

    BBBBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

  13. [13] 
    Michale wrote:

    I mean, how utterly DEVESTATED must you Demon'rats feel...

    Your Token DEI Hire of a candidate had EVERY ADVANTAGE.. Over a BILLION DOLLARS!!!

    A compliant Media that gave Has Been Hooker Harris every opportunity imaginable!!

    And not only did your Token DEI Hire LOSE the Electoral Election, she ALSO LOST the POPULAR VOTE by a CONSIDERABLY GREAT MARGIN!!!

    BBBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Oh, the SHAME ya'all must feel by backing such a COMPLETE and UTTER LOSER!!! :D

    If ONLY there had been someone to warn you that your lame no-talent candidate COULDN'T POSSIBLY win!!!

    Oh.. wait... THERE WAS!!! :D

    Ya'all have NO ONE but yerselves to blame... :D

  14. [14] 
    Michale wrote:

    And now that President ELECT Trump is going to get all the nominees he wants in the positions he wants them in, it's gonna be OPEN SEASON on Trump/America hating Demon'rats who have done all they can to run America into the dirt the last 4 years...

    JAIL TERMs for all, starting with Basement Biden and Hunter Biden... Since Demon'rats have established the precedence that lawfare against political opponents is perfectly acceptable, it's going to be FUN to see Demon'rats thrown in jail left and right!! :D

  15. [15] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    I'm thinking someone should have taken his meds before posting...

  16. [16] 
    Michale wrote:

    Says the troll who has been **WRONG** about everything!!

    BBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Face reality, Bashi Troll.. You have ZERO credibility.. You and your fellow Demon'rats have **EVERY** advantage..

    And President Trump STILL wiped the floor with you!!! :D

    Now all you have is impotent whinings and cryings and screaming to the sky...

    Ya'all are so pathetic... :D

  17. [17] 
    Kick wrote:

    BashiBazouk
    15

    I'm thinking someone should have taken his meds before posting...

    I'm thinking you're absolutely correct, but I'm also thinking his mouth was obviously way too busy with all the PTDS to have taken any meds per os. He should therefore give his meds to Trump and await the so-called "trickle down." :)

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