ChrisWeigant.com

Crisis? What Crisis?

[ Posted Wednesday, August 9th, 2017 – 18:30 PDT ]

So I take a few days off to do some tourist stuff, and suddenly we're almost at war with North Korea? I guess with Donald Trump running things you can't afford to ignore the news for even a few days.

Maybe it's just being on vacation, though, but for some reason I don't think the current crisis is really going to live up to the hype in the media. Even hotels in the backwoods still have cable television, so I have seen them going bonkers over the situation -- portraying it as the most serious international standoff since the Cuban missile crisis.

Somehow, I kind of doubt that is true, though. Perhaps it's just having had cable TV as my main news source for the past two days. I tend to pay much more attention at home to print and online news, and only sample broadcast television news just to see how the stories I've already read are being presented. While cable news is much more excitable, millions more Americans regularly get their information about the world and politics through broadcast news, so I have to at least pay attention to their spin, while mostly ignoring cable altogether.

Which is why I reached back to a very old Supertramp album title to headline this article. Crisis? Really? Well, maybe... but then again maybe not. North Korea, after all, issues bellicose statements towards us with regularity, and for the most part the United States (from the president on down) just largely ignores them. Such bellicosity is really intended for for the North Korean people, to keep them whipped into a state of perpetual frenzy over the supposed imminent attack from the U.S. (that never seems to materialize, but whatever). Watching even 30 seconds of the woman who regularly delivers such alarmist statements on North Korean state television (from just about any recent period of time) proves this beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Which is another reason why I found it so surprising that the American cable news media seemed to be equally as frenetic about the recent exchange of military taunting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un. Aren't we supposed to be a little better than them in this regard? Well, perhaps not. Again, this is the reason why I largely shun cable news altogether, because I prefer sober discussion to emotional manipulation.

Maybe I'm just not being alarmist enough, but even when Trump responded to North Korea in the same style that Kim Jong Un prefers, I just don't see World War III breaking out by next Tuesday. Or even Korean War II, for that matter. I wouldn't go as far as to say Trump is just bluffing, but I would say his recent statements fall into the category of bluster rather than a well-thought-out military or diplomatic strategy.

I've written about this multiple times, the first over a month before he took office. Trump is taking a page from Richard Nixon's playbook, and executing the "Madman Theory" of international relations (and warfare). After all, if even the American media isn't quite sure whether Trump really is getting ready to launch a few nukes of our own, then foreign leaders can't have any certainty themselves. But, as I wrote later (specifically about North Korea), even Nixon never gamed out what a "Madman-Versus-Madman Theory" would look like. We've got two world leaders who are both (perhaps) bluffing, more to pump themselves up for their own respective domestic audiences than anything else. By doing so, they're daring the other to figure out precisely how mad the other one is, in essence. Madness squared, in other words.

Of course, the open question now is whether either of them will eventually be goaded into making good on their bluster. I, for one, don't really believe this will happen on either end. I could be being too Pollyannaish here, and things could indeed explode into military action at any time. But at this point I truly think this will all fizzle.

I don't think anything America is willing to do is going to halt the North Korean march towards being a full nuclear state. The price is just too high, and I think that the saner minds in the West Wing will eventually convince Trump that this is true. On this one, no matter what Trump tweets, "his generals" are going to sit him down at some point and make it crystal clear just how many lives are at stake. The only thing that has a prayer of actually working is the new sanctions regime the United Nations just approved. But I think Kim Jong Un will accept these sanctions as the price for becoming a full nuclear state (with intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads capable of re-entry) and that he won't sit down to negotiate with anyone until he reaches that goal. Again, this may prove to be wildly optimistic, but even with all the fulminating on cable television, I think this is the most likely outcome.

In other words: Crisis? What crisis?

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

65 Comments on “Crisis? What Crisis?”

  1. [1] 
    altohone wrote:

    Hey CW

    I suspect and hope you are correct.

    One veteran Korea journalist noted that the (likely authorized) leak from the DIA about N Korea successfully miniaturizing a warhead was unusual.

    The timing to coincide with these events, and the absence of the usual analysis that would accompany such a report was considered odd, and may just reflect the view of an individual rather than the consensus of the intelligence analysts...

    ... and may have been designed for our domestic consumption because frenzy and "fire and fury" are preferable for Trump to what would otherwise be under discussion... his sinking poll numbers among them.

    A

  2. [2] 
    altohone wrote:
  3. [3] 
    altohone wrote:

    Here's the link about Israel setting up an "Israel friendly" zone 6 miles deep and 12 miles long inside Syria cited in the article above.

    https://www.newsdeeply.com/syria/articles/2017/06/15/long-read-israels-quiet-campaign-to-gain-a-foothold-in-southern-syria

    There's nothing like our "ally" providing military support to the group that attacked us on 9/11 in an effort to claim permanent control of illegally occupied and colonized Golan.

    One of the more interesting aspects is that the UN peacekeepers are doing nothing about the Israeli activities or the jihadis operating in their zone.

    A

    PS- for anybody who doesn't know the history, the comparable Israeli effort in southern Lebanon didn't work out as planned... we're all paying for them to be trying it again... and the corporate media doesn't seem the slightest bit interested in letting Americans know about it.

  4. [4] 
    LeaningBlue wrote:

    altohone,

    I replied to you on the previous thread.

  5. [5] 
    LeaningBlue wrote:

    CW -

    Yeah, I think you nailed this. Authoritarian-state rhetoric is well matched with identical type counter-rhetoric.

    Some of this President's words and all of his implication is verbatim from President Truman's August, 1945, warning of the imminent deployment of atomic bombs on Japan.

    It's a coincidence that this day in 1945, an atomic bomb was detonated over Nagasaki.

    It could be another coincidence that the other atomic target, Hiroshima, was the port from which sailed the fleet that attacked the US Pacific fleet at Pearl Harbor in 1941. Nagasaki was the port from which sailed the fleet that attacked the Russian fleet at anchor at Dutch Harbor in (iirc) 1905.

    Of course, only a conspiracy theorist would think that those are anything other than coincidences.

  6. [6] 
    LeaningBlue wrote:

    Corrections: The year the Russian fleet was attacked at anchor was 1904, not 1905. Also, it was Port Arthur, not Dutch Harbor. (see, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Port_Arthur )

  7. [7] 
    Michale wrote:

    Maybe it's just being on vacation, though, but for some reason I don't think the current crisis is really going to live up to the hype in the media.

    Ya think???

    When has **ANY** Trump Related crisis **EVER* lived up to the hype that the media gave it???

    :D

    Well, maybe... but then again maybe not. North Korea, after all, issues bellicose statements towards us with regularity, and for the most part the United States (from the president on down) just largely ignores them

    Which is why North Korea is still a problem..

    Which is another reason why I found it so surprising that the American cable news media seemed to be equally as frenetic about the recent exchange of military taunting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un. Aren't we supposed to be a little better than them in this regard?

    And what has that gotten us???

    A nuclear armed NK with the capability to strike the US...

    I am not saying President Trump's actions are the correct way to go. But it DOES have the virtue of never being tried...

    Odumbo's way sure made things worse...

    I don't think anything America is willing to do is going to halt the North Korean march towards being a full nuclear state. The price is just too high,

    Have you considered what the price is of NOT stopping NK would be??

    The only thing that has a prayer of actually working is the new sanctions regime the United Nations just approved.

    Oh yes. Cuz the UN has been just DANDY on everything it has touched in the past, eh? :^/

    That was sarcasm in case it was to subtle.. :D

  8. [8] 
    Michale wrote:

    The timing to coincide with these events, and the absence of the usual analysis that would accompany such a report was considered odd, and may just reflect the view of an individual rather than the consensus of the intelligence analysts...

    ... and may have been designed for our domestic consumption because frenzy and "fire and fury" are preferable for Trump to what would otherwise be under discussion... his sinking poll numbers among them.

    Or....

    You could be putting out total bullshit as you normally do because you don't like President Trump..

    Unless you can cite your source, it's complete bullshit..

    That's the rule.. :D

  9. [9] 
    Michale wrote:
  10. [10] 
    Michale wrote:

    "The reaction to this is not wholly rational. A lot of people are caught up on Trump the character - and he is erratic - without thinking about whether there's historical precedent for this kind of language. I'm actually a little relieved that Trump is crawling inside the North Koreans' helmets. I would not have chosen those words, but he did put the fear of God into them."
    -Former Nuclear Launch Officer Who Opposed President Trump

    If ya'all could get past your Anti-Trump hysteria, you would see the logic in what President Trump is doing..

    Kim Runt Un is a bully.. And you know that bullies will escalate their bullying if they think they can get away with it..

    And the *ONLY* thing that stops a bully from bullying, short of killing them, is to slap them down hard.. Bloody their nose...

    Odumbo's way of ignoring the problem and hope it goes away didn't work..

    It's time to take the bullying to the bully...

    Which ya'all would COMPLETELY support if Odumbo had actually had the leadership skills to do it..

  11. [11] 
    Michale wrote:

    Yet the White House was quick to issue assurances that, as press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said, although Trump's "words were his own . . . the tone and strength of the message were discussed beforehand" by Chief of Staff John Kelly and others on the National Security Council.

    So much for ya'all's claim that General Kelly wasn't in the loop.. :D

    Don't ya'all EVER get tired of being wrong about all things President Trump?? :D

  12. [12] 
    Michale wrote:

    U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on Wednesday told North Korea it must stop any action that would "lead to the end of its regime" and "stand down" in its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

    OHMYGODS!!!!!

    General 'Mad Dog' Mattis is being mean to North Korea!!!

    Liberals unite!!!! Get together for one big cry!!

    Ya'all will feel better..

    {/sarcasm}

    :D

    Ya'all just don't get it...

    Thar's a new sheriff in town..

    The days of hiding under the bed sheets and hope the problems go away are over...

    We now have REAL leaders in DC who know how to get things done...

  13. [13] 
    Michale wrote:

    Ya know what's REALLY funny in a sad and pathetic sort of way??

    North Korea has minituriazed nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them to more than half the United States..

    And the hysterical Left's *ONLY* concern??

    President Trump's words...

    Thereby proving once again beyond any doubt...

    With the Left, it's PARTY UBER ALLES

  14. [14] 
    Michale wrote:

    I am not saying President Trump's actions are the correct way to go. But it DOES have the virtue of never being tried...

    "The Kobayashi Maru scenario frequently wreaks havoc on students and equipment. As I recall you took the test three times yourself. Your final solution was, shall we say, unique?"
    "It had the virtue of never having been tried."

    -STAR TREK II, THE WRATH OF KHAN

    :D

  15. [15] 
    Michale wrote:

    This latest Anti-Trump hysterical fear-mongering proves one thing beyond any doubt at all..

    The Dumbocrats' "Better Deal" crap was nothing but smoke and mirrors..

    Dumbocrats are going to run SOLELY on a "WE HATE TRUMP" platform in 2018...

    And will promptly get their asses handed to them..

    AGAIN... :D

    You heard it here first.. :D

  16. [16] 
    Michale wrote:

    Basically the strategy of the Trump administration is to show China and Russia that a REAL threat of a REAL war on the Korean Peninsula is now a VERY real possibility...

    And, after a successive series of Presidents have just stuck their thumbs up their asses and did nothing, the pro-active approach is VERY welcome and refreshing..

  17. [17] 
    Michale wrote:

    If it doesn't work???

    "It is better to attack at your convenience than to defend at your enemy's."
    -Sun Tzu

    "Forget Sun Tzu. I googled him. It turned out that China lost a lot of wars after he wrote his books."
    -Ed Azanti, LAST MAN STANDING

    :D

  18. [18] 
    Michale wrote:

    The only way to change China's calculus is to convince it the alternatives are worse. That means:

    Making the threat of war on the peninsula credible.

    Threatening real harm to China's economy by cutting off its banking access to the West.

    Raising the possibility Japan could go nuclear if North Korea is capable of annihilating it.

    To call those “hard tasks” is an understatement. George W. Bush couldn't make the military threat convincing because he was bogged down in two other wars. Barack Obama couldn't because he no sentient human believed he would risk a major war. Obama’s policy of "strategic patience" amounted to nap time, and Pyongyang used the lull to move full-steam-ahead on its nuclear and missile programs. Obama also made things worse by killing Moammar Gaddafi and destroying his regime after Gaddafi gave up his weapons of mass destruction. The message was clear, if inadvertent: Your life and your regime are in more danger if you give up your weapons than if you keep them. The U.S. sent a similar message in Ukraine, which gave up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons in return for promises of Western defense, promises that were abandoned when Russia invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/08/10/4_questions_3_answers_about_the_north_korea_crisis_134713.html

    The "vaunted" foreign policy of Barack Hussein Odumbo...

    Made things infinitely harder and infinitely more dangerous for this country..

  19. [19] 
    Michale wrote:

    Did ya'all WANT to talk about military options vis a vis North Korea???

    Or were ya'all just making chit chat.??

    :D

    "We may catch a break and have that blizzard blow by us.
    All this moisture coming up out of the south will probably push on east of us.
    At high altitudes it will crystallize and give us what we call snow. Probably will be some accumulation... but here in Punxsutawney our high will be about 30 today, teens tonight. Chance of precipitation about 20 percent today and 20 percent tomorrow.
    Did you WANT to talk about the weather??? Or were you just making chit chat??"
    "Um...... Just chit chat..."

    GROUNDHOG DAY

    :D

  20. [20] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    CW-
    Watching the Netroots conference on C-Span. There is no picture of you here that I can find so I can find you in the room.
    Maybe you should try to talk to Jim Keady while you are there for a possible future article about him.

  21. [21] 
    TheStig wrote:

    Trump's White House nickname is reportedly "Two Minute Man." Apparently a reference to his attention span...although Melania has reportedly been heard to mutter sarcastically:

    "I vish, I vish ....nohhh, not wrreally."

  22. [22] 
    Michale wrote:

    Trump's White House nickname is reportedly "Two Minute Man."

    Apparently a reference to his attention span...although Melania has reportedly been heard to mutter sarcastically:

    Cite????

    Jeeze.. Look who I'm asking.. :^/

  23. [23] 
    altohone wrote:

    8

    So, you're claiming to have seen the usual analysis that accompanies these threat assessments?

    Or, did you just not notice it was missing?

    Or, you want to treat as fact something without substantiation because both sides of your mouth found it convenient?

    Here's the link for the interview with Tim Shorrock who has covered Korea extensively and who noted the absence of the accompanying analysis in the threat assessment on warhead miniaturization leaked to the Washington Post... who, it should be noted, you are choosing to believe this time despite the lack of evidence and your endless rants about them.

    http://therealnews.com/t2/story:19731:Has-Trump-Threatened-Nuclear-War-on-North-Korea%3F

    A

  24. [24] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Don Harris [20] -

    I've learned something from conferences and conventions. Wear a distinctive hat, people will remember you.

    Look for an Orioles baseball cap. Bright orange brim, black hat with orange bird on it. If you see it, that's me!

    :-)

    -CW

    PS. Go O's! Well, maybe not this year, but still... heh...

  25. [25] 
    altohone wrote:

    LB
    4

    OK, well, there isn't a consensus on McPherson's ten year timeline or "human extinction during this century", and I wouldn't characterize rejection after consideration as suppression.
    I'd seen his work criticized, and he was indeed one of those relegated to the fringe, so thank you for the apology, but he is one of the ones I was referencing, so it's possible I'll owe you an apology... not that I was personally participating in the effort.

    No doubt, there is a tendency to doubt outliers in the scientific community, but criticisms of his conclusions and methodology have been made in the typical peer reviewed fashion.

    "Only now is that dispute being given mainstream consideration, because even casual empiricism is proving them far, far, too conservative, and even scientists have some sense of shame."

    So, just because the models have been too conservative it doesn't mean the most dire predictions are now accurate... and if the scientific community is reassessing due to the evidence, the issue seems to be resolving itself.
    I've certainly seen the issues those scientists raised being considered, and the shortcomings of the models acknowledged, so even if the predictions are exaggerations, maybe it's helping push the debate in the right direction.
    But I still don't think we should give up trying to do something based on a claim of inevitable doom.

    In any case, given the inaction or insufficient action globally, it looks like we are likely to find out if the ten year prediction is accurate... and I hope it isn't.

    There should be measurable impacts that let us know sooner rather than later.

    A

  26. [26] 
    Michale wrote:

    Or, did you just not notice it was missing?

    No.. I just notice you claim a lot of anti-Trump conspiracy theories with little to no sourcing..

    And the little sourcing you DO have is alter- websites and fake-news crap..

    Here's the link for the interview with Tim Shorrock who has covered Korea extensively and who noted the absence of the accompanying analysis in the threat assessment on warhead miniaturization leaked to the Washington Post...

    The miniaturizaton of nuclear weapons by NK was long-known to the Odumbo administration...

  27. [27] 
    altohone wrote:

    9

    The facts on the ground don't change just because you stick your head in the sand.
    Denial isn't an effective counterargument.

    And plenty of other outlets have corroborated the claims from the AlterNet article.
    The buffer zone inside Syria along the border with Golan is a reality.
    Jordan did indeed shut their border to these radicals.
    Israel is indeed providing weapons and supplies to jihadis including al Qaida fighting the Syrian government to maintain that buffer zone.
    Bibi is indeed lobbying foreign governments to recognize the illegal Israeli claim to the Golan Heights using the war in Syria to justify it.

    If you decide to debate the significance of what is happening instead of serving the corrupt establishment by pretending it isn't happening, let me know.

    Jeez.
    Trump cut off US support for the "rebels".
    I'd think you'd support his call and question why our allies aren't following his leadership.
    Why are you putting the establishment before Trump?
    If Trump is wrong, aren't you supposed to be calling him out as promised?

    A

  28. [28] 
    altohone wrote:

    26

    Three dodges.
    No logic or substantiation.

    Typical.

    A

  29. [29] 
    Michale wrote:

    The facts on the ground don't change just because you stick your head in the sand.

    Let me know when you have any facts..

    No logic or substantiation.

    Says the guy who is ALL about conspiracy theories and NEVER has any substantiation.. :D

  30. [30] 
    Balthasar wrote:

    While you guys are bickering about nonsense, there's a lot of news happening out there. For instance:

    Anthony Scaramucci compared Ryan Lizza's taping of his conversation with the Mooch, to Linda Tripp's taping of Monica Lewinsky. So that makes him...Monica?

    Lewinsky, for her part, tweeted a surprised emoji.

    The editor of Breitbart got upset about...the cover of Vogue Magazine. Seems that for their 125th anniversary, they shot four different covers, all featuring actress Jennifer Lawrence. One of those features JLaw in a flowing red dress, photographed in front of the Statue of Liberty. Editor John Carney didn't see "American Beauty" as the caption suggests, he saw 'leftist conspiracy'. He tweeted: "... the Opposition Media can't even do fashion without attacking us." Apparently he thinks of it as an intrusion into the immigration debate, or some such, because the right has lately been busily trying to separate the statue from the Emma Lazarus poem attached to its base ('Give us your poor, your tired..', etc.) following Stephen Miller's attack on it last week. Considering the photoshoot was done last June, he's accusing the mag of forecasting political debate as well. Carney's outrage is laugh out loud stupid, but did inspire a fun hastag: #BreitbartFashion.

    The ACLU, one of Breitbart's fav targets, will be representing former Breitbart editor and internet troll Milo Yiannopoulos in a lawsuit filed against DC's Metropolitan Area Transit Authority for not letting him promote his new book with ads on subway trains. “The ACLU condemns many of the values he espouses (and he, of course, condemns many of the values the ACLU espouses),” wrote the ACLU, adding, "..if he comes down, so do we all.” That's really scary, considering how often Milo goes down.

  31. [31] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    CW-
    I bet people would REALLY remember you if you wore a hat that said "Make America Great Again".

  32. [32] 
    LeaningBlue wrote:

    [25] - he is one of the ones I was referencing, so it's possible I'll owe you an apology...

    None, of course, is required in any case, and certainly not where we crossed because of the way positions were getting defined.

    I get a sense that you're wonky enough for me to make a book recommendation. And, yes, it's certainly a title for the era of Trump. But the author is associated with Santa Fe Institute, and they have been known to be a little full of themselves, as well as of other organic material.

    The title is Scale: The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, and the Pace of Life in Organisms, Cities, Economies, and Companies

    It's a discussion of complexity and how processes self replicate to arbitrary size. In a tangential way, some of what is discussed supports some of McPhearson's positions.

    Most people center their criticism of McP by focusing on his identified feedback loops, questioning whether they are actually self reinforcing to levels that reach some sort of "tipping point."

    What McP really brought to climate risk analysis was annunciating a linkage between localized heat and water conditions and loss of habitat. For humans, of course, loss of habitat means disruption in crop yield rates.

    That's not why I'm recommending the book; I don't believe McP's predictions because they are predicated on chaotic behavior of a system out of equilibrium. Chaotic response when a system loses its equilibrium doesn't ensure the worst case; chaotic systems can go on for a long time.

    Rather, I'm recommending the book because it lays out a good narrative of a broad band of applications of current complex-system concepts.

  33. [33] 
    Michale wrote:

    Anthony Scaramucci compared Ryan Lizza's taping of his conversation with the Mooch, to Linda Tripp's taping of Monica Lewinsky. So that makes him...Monica?

    Yea... That is SO MUCH MORE interesting and relevant than a possible nuclear exchange with NK...

    PTDS... Definitely PTDS...

  34. [34] 
    Michale wrote:

    LB,

    At this point in time, I absolutely agree.

    Finally!!!!

    Oh my gods, I could kiss you right now!!!

    We have been having this debate for over a decade here in Weigantia..

    And you are the FIRST person, they VERY first person in over a decade to acknowledge this fact...

    It's awesome to finally have this discussion with someone who has some semblance of common sense and is not just parroting the Party line...

    There was an original Star Trek where Scotty kept saying the ship didn't "feel right," and kept checking everything but nothing appeared wrong. It turned out that -I don't remember exactly - they were in a parallel universe or something.

    THAT WHICH SURVIVES

    It wasn't a parallel universe. The Enterprise had been thrust a long long ways away and was put back slightly out of phase.. Think of it as a transporter accident. Scotty had to reverse the polarity of the magnetic probe he was using to re-align the mis-match..

    Did you WANT to know all that?? :D

    That said, I'd encourage you to click back to that nullschool link I posted before, every so often. Keep an eye on that gyre just west of the Pole. If that doesn't disappear soon, there won't be any multi-year ice left among the islands when the sun goes down in September.

    That's been the prediction since Al Gore said that the Arctic would be ice free by 2014....

    Here it is 2017 and not only is the Arctic NOT ice-free, it has the same thickness of ice it had in 1940...

    I understand your affinity for the Arctic and I can see your pain at the idea that it would disappear..

    I also acknowledge that you have scientific data up the wazoo that supports your predictions..

    But what you don't seem to understand is that there are ALSO real scientists out there that have real data and they are saying the exact opposite...

    Put it another way..

    The pro human caused global warming group is Bele and the anti human caused global warming group is Lokai.. The pro group is black on the right side and white on the left side.. The anti group is white on the right side and black on the left side..

    Each group has their own facts that are perfectly valid and each group sits atop their high pedestal, assured in the superiority of their position?

    Me?? I am Captain James T Kirk and I look at them both and say, "Yer both fraked up!!"

    :D

    If that happens, my friend, a few months from now, when the citrus freezes or the shuffleboard courts close due to high temperatures, trust that I'll be the first to say I told you so.

    And if it DOESN'T happen???

    Will you be the first to concede that you were wrong and that the "deniers" were right??

    Because, to date, there has NEVER been an accurate prediction or model from the human caused global warming crowd.. NEVER....

    If your prediction DOES come true, I will be the first to congratulate you and concede you were right..

    Could you repost that link you want me to monitor??? I will bookmark it and definitely keep my eye on it..

  35. [35] 
    Michale wrote:

    Al,

    This link's for you... :D

    Why Some U.S. Ex-Spies Don't Buy the Russia Story
    Evidence that undermines the "election hack" narrative should get more attention.

    VIPS instead surmises that, after WikiLeaks' Julian Assange announced on June 12, 2016 his intention to publish Hillary Clinton-related emails, the DNC rushed to fabricate evidence that it had been hacked by Russia to defuse any potential WikiLeaks disclosures. To this end, the theory goes, the DNC used the Guccifer 2.0 online persona to release mostly harmless DNC data. Guccifer 2.0 was later loosely linked to Russia because of Russian metadata in his files and his use of a Russia-based virtual private network.

    The VIPS theory relies on forensic findings by independent researchers who go by the pseudonyms "Forensicator" and "Adam Carter." The former found that 1,976 MB of Guccifer's files were copied from a DNC server on July 5 in just 87 seconds, implying a transfer rate of 22.6 megabytes per second -- or, converted to a measure most people use, about 180 megabits per second, a speed not commonly available from U.S. internet providers. Downloading such files this quickly over the internet, especially over a VPN (most hackers would use one), would have been all but impossible because the network infrastructure through which the traffic would have to pass would further slow the traffic. However, as Forensicator has pointed out, the files could have been copied to a thumb drive -- something only an insider could have done -- at about that speed.

    Adam Carter, the pseudonym for the other analyst, showed that the content of the Guccifer files was at some point cut and pasted into Microsoft Word templates that used the Russian language. Carter laid out all the available evidence and his answers to numerous critics in a long post earlier this month.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-10/why-some-u-s-ex-spies-don-t-buy-the-russia-story

  36. [36] 
    Michale wrote:

    Liberalism’s Summer of ’17
    Liberals whine about being governed by Trump. Pity those governed by them.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/liberalisms-summer-of-17-1502320215

    Liberalism is a disease...

    President Trump is the cure.. ;D

  37. [37] 
    Michale wrote:

    Is California Cracking Up

    Corporate profits at California-based transnational corporations such as Apple, Facebook and Google are hitting record highs.

    California housing prices from La Jolla to Berkeley along the Pacific Coast can top $1,000 a square foot.

    It seems as if all of China is willing to pay premium prices to get their children degreed at Caltech, Berkeley, Stanford, UCLA or USC.

    Yet California -- after raising its top income tax rate to 13.3 percent and receiving record revenues -- is still facing a budget deficit of more than $1 billion. There is a much more foreboding state crisis of unfunded liabilities and pension obligations of nearly $1 trillion.
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/08/10/is_california_cracking_up_134705.html

    Remind me again how AWESOME California is again??

    I seem to have forgotten, what with all the facts to the contrary.. :D

  38. [38] 
    Michale wrote:

    I bet people would REALLY remember you if you wore a hat that said "Make America Great Again".

    Per chance, to dream... :D

    That WOULD be fun!! :D

  39. [39] 
    Michale wrote:

    But getting back to North Korea...

    “What the president is doing is sending a strong message to North Korea in language that [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Un can understand, because he doesn’t seem to understand diplomatic language.”
    -SecState Tillerson

    You see, this is what you people don't get..

    The Administration is one when it comes to facing down the little runt in NK...

    Your claims that President Trump went off script and General Kelly is failing is just so much wishful thinking again..

    Ya'all are scared to death that President Trump might actually be the President that actually gets things done...

    Ya'all are petrified.... And so out comes the hysterical anti-Trump predictions.. :D

  40. [40] 
    Michale wrote:

    So, let me get this straight..

    China will remain neutral if it's satellite, NK attacks first..

    But China will join in the fight if the US makes a pre-emptive strike..

    Hmmmmmmmmm

    Fine... Then any pre-emptive strike should include neutralizing any Chinese assets that would assist NK...

    You see, that is the entire point of President Trump's plan...

    To show China what they will face if they don't reign in the little runt..

    "Disease.. Horror... Death... Destruction.. That is what war is all about, Anaan... THAT is what makes it a thing to be avoided..."
    -Captain James T. Kirk, A TASTE OF ARMAGEDDON,

  41. [41] 
    Michale wrote:

    "US military is locked and loaded should North Korea act unwisely."
    -President Trump

    Now THAT is what **I** am talking about.."
    -GRU, DESPICABLE ME

    :D

  42. [42] 
    Michale wrote:

    John Bel Edwards declares state of emergency over New Orleans flooding concerns
    http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flood_emergency.html

    Hmmmmmmm Seems to me that if the Dumbocrats in NOLA would worry less about Confederate Statues and more about the people of New Orleans, they wouldn't be in this predicament... :^/

    Morons....

  43. [43] 
    Michale wrote:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-liberal-crackup-1502456857

    So dead on ballz accurate, its' scary...

  44. [44] 
    Michale wrote:

    Black Lives Matter is a textbook example of how not to build solidarity. By publicizing and protesting police mistreatment of African-Americans, the movement delivered a wake-up call to every American with a conscience. But its decision to use this mistreatment to build a general indictment of American society and demand a confession of white sins and public penitence only played into the hands of the Republican right.

    I am not a black male motorist and will never know what it is like to be one. If I am going to be affected by his experience, I need some way to identify with him, and citizenship is the only thing I know that we share. The more the differences between us are emphasized, the less likely I will be to feel outrage at his mistreatment.

    The politics of identity has done nothing but strengthen the grip of the American right on our institutions. It is the gift that keeps on taking. Now is the time for liberals to do an immediate about-face and return to articulating their core principles of solidarity and equal protection for all. Never has the country needed it more.

    That is exactly what I have been saying for a decade...

    If ya'all REALLY want to make progress, it's better to emphasize our commonalities.. Then it becomes easier (and much more pleasant) to work on where we differ...

    But by and large, the Hysterical Left Wingery doesn't want to hear ANYTHING about commonalities and common ground..

    It's either their way or the highway...

    And *THAT* is why we have President Trump... Because patriotic Americans chose the highway...

    And left the hysterical Left Wingery in the dust...

  45. [45] 
    LeaningBlue wrote:

    Australian PM Turnbull said Thursday night, of the US confrontation with NK that, between Aus. and US, that an attack on one is an attack on the other.
    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/08/11/turnbull-says-australia-will-enter-conflict-if-north-korea-attacks-us

    I was just doing some flight planning, and thought I'd pull the flight distances to some cities. Using ICN (Seoul) at the starting point, these are the statute mile great circle distances to some cities, in order of distance:

    Aust. (MEL) - 5302 --
    London (LHR) - 5520 --
    San Fran (SFO) - 5659 --
    Los Ang. (LAX) - 5996 --
    NYC (JFK) - 6906 --
    Wash. (WAS) - 6970 --

    Those are all long distances, particularly for a unmanned missile that would have to be using somebody else's gps-type guidance. That means they have to have designed, built, and tested on-board inertial guidance. Unlike the PRC, which was probably able to steal Soviet and US secrets about hardening those systems, it's unlikely NK has been able to do that.

    Remember, too, that those routes require atmospheric re-entry, a requirement for those missiles which NK has yet to test.

    Have a good weekend.

  46. [46] 
    Michale wrote:

    Australian PM Turnbull said Thursday night, of the US confrontation with NK that, between Aus. and US, that an attack on one is an attack on the other.

    So much for the claim that President Trump is pissing off US Allies... :D

    Those are all long distances, particularly for a unmanned missile that would have to be using somebody else's gps-type guidance. That means they have to have designed, built, and tested on-board inertial guidance. Unlike the PRC, which was probably able to steal Soviet and US secrets about hardening those systems, it's unlikely NK has been able to do that.

    The DPRK has been way ahead of the curve on EMP weapons..

    A near miss is a direct hit with those weapons..

    Ever read ONE SECOND AFTER??

    Or play HOMEFRONT?? :D

  47. [47] 
    Balthasar wrote:

    That is SO MUCH MORE interesting and relevant than a possible nuclear exchange with NK...

    No, but it's much more interesting than the bickering exchange you were having up to that point.

    Yet California -- after raising its top income tax rate to 13.3 percent and receiving record revenues -- is still facing a budget deficit of more than $1 billion.

    Which is WAY down from its peak of $40 billion under Schwarzenegger in 2008. Republicans are either really bad at math, or so tied to tax cut dogma that they refuse to do basic math...

    But China will join in the fight if the US makes a pre-emptive strike... Then any pre-emptive strike should include neutralizing any Chinese assets that would assist NK...

    ...or read basic history. This isn't some game of Risk, there are tens of millions of lives at stake. I have zero faith that Trump understands that.

    By publicizing and protesting police mistreatment of African-Americans, [Black Lives Matter] delivered a wake-up call to every American with a conscience. But its decision to use this mistreatment to build a general indictment of American society and demand a confession of white sins and public penitence only played into the hands of the Republican right.

    Translation: we understand your plight, but asking us to actually DO anything about it is a bridge too far. Sessions has already cancelled many of the agreements that Holder made to address the problem. So sleep easy, white man!

  48. [48] 
    Michale wrote:

    No, but it's much more interesting than the bickering exchange you were having up to that point.

    You mean, the lively discussion and debate??

    Well, to each there own, I spose... :D

    Which is WAY down from its peak of $40 billion under Schwarzenegger in 2008. Republicans are either really bad at math, or so tied to tax cut dogma that they refuse to do basic math...

    Yes, I grant you, 1 billion down is better than 40 billion down..

    But it STILL doesn't qualify as the grand Liberal utopia ya'all claim it is..

    ESPECIALLY when California is mired in a deficit of close to one TRILLION dollars when you consider the unfunded liabilities and pension obligations that California has..

    ...or read basic history. This isn't some game of Risk, there are tens of millions of lives at stake. I have zero faith that Trump understands that.

    But yer "faith" is skewed by your Party zealotry..

    The fact is, China is NOT going to allow a war to happen.. They have WAY more to lose than the US, ROK or any other actor in the region...

    Translation: we understand your plight, but asking us to actually DO anything about it is a bridge too far. Sessions has already cancelled many of the agreements that Holder made to address the problem. So sleep easy, white man!

    Thank you for proving EXACTLY why you Left Wingers continue to lose elections...

    Ya'all would rather fight than compromise... Would rather emphasize differences than find common ground...

    With that attitude, ya'all will continue to lose...

    So, by all means... Take the low violent road... I double dog dare ya... :D

  49. [49] 
    Michale wrote:

    I have zero faith that Trump understands that.

    As opposed to Odumbo who thought Strategic Nappy Time was the best way to go??

    Yea... THAT worked out well, didn't it?? :^/

  50. [50] 
    Balthasar wrote:

    California is mired in a deficit of close to one TRILLION dollars when you consider the unfunded liabilities and pension obligations that California has..

    Which has been grossly exaggerated by Brown's political opponents. I'm not enough of an expert to get into details, but that liability has come down under Brown. CalPERS, the state pension system, has a $243 Billion shortfall, which is being addressed.

    But it STILL doesn't qualify as the grand Liberal utopia ya'all claim it is..

    I'd leave that to those that live there. Kansas isn't the conservative utopia that Brownback envisioned either.

    The fact is, China is NOT going to allow a war to happen.

    So I should pin my hopes on China being the adult in the room? Man, you guys just don't get the whole 'world leader' thing, do you?

    Ya'all would rather fight than compromise... Would rather emphasize differences than find common ground..

    I'll give you credit for this: you wrote that without a hint of irony. See: healthcare.

  51. [51] 
    Michale wrote:

    Which has been grossly exaggerated by Brown's political opponents.

    Yes.. That's one possible explanation.. Do you have any facts to support it??

    CalPERS, the state pension system, has a $243 Billion shortfall, which is being addressed.

    OK, so you admit there is a short fall... How do you reconcile this hundreds of billions of dollar shortfall to ya'all's claim that California is a liberal's utopia???

    You see your problem?? You are so enslaved by Party ideology, you can't even ADMIT that there are problems..

    I'd leave that to those that live there. Kansas isn't the conservative utopia that Brownback envisioned either.

    And we can talk about that once you admit that Liberals are just as bad...

    Then we can move on to Chicago, Baltimore and the rest of the liberal Left Wing hell holes.. :D

    So I should pin my hopes on China being the adult in the room? Man, you guys just don't get the whole 'world leader' thing, do you?

    WHich you have denied President Trump is..

    SO, NOW, because it suits yer agenda and ideology, NOW President Trump is the world leader..

    Is that yer claim now??

    But what "world leader" has brought us to this point??

    Yea... Yer guy, Odumbo who figured that thrusting his head in the sand was a MUCH better idea than actually addressing the problem...

    So, NOW... Because YOUR guy was a total douchebag, President Trump has to take us to the edge of the abyss...

    I'll give you credit for this: you wrote that without a hint of irony. See: healthcare.

    And I wish I could give you credit for actually addressing the point, rather than going with a dodge...

    But, alas.. I cannot..

  52. [52] 
    Michale wrote:

    So, NOW... Because YOUR guy was a total douchebag, President Trump has to take us to the edge of the abyss...

    STARGATE ATLANTIS: The Game
    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0902891/

  53. [53] 
    Balthasar wrote:

    You are so enslaved by Party ideology, you can't even ADMIT that there are problems..

    Of course there are problems. Political parties exist because people disagree on the solutions. Democrats would prefer to fully fund the program through higher taxes on the rich. Republicans would rather kill the thing altogether, or at least under-fund it in the hope that it will die a little. Wise leaders try to fix the problem, maintaining the benefit of the program, while reducing the program's costs as much as possible.

    SO, NOW, because it suits yer agenda and ideology, NOW President Trump is the world leader..

    Trump has been a world leader since his inauguration, he just hasn't acted like one. His reflexive embrace of authoritarian dictators is worrisome, his lack of understanding of history and issues is alarming.

    Because YOUR guy was a total douchebag, President Trump has to take us to the edge of the abyss..

    Oh no, you can't pin this on Obama, who kept us out of this sort of dick wagging for eight years. You and Trump may enjoy the adrenaline rush of 'the edge of the abyss', but I assure you that millions of others do not.

  54. [54] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Remind me again how AWESOME California is again??

    Could be worse. At least it's not Florida...

  55. [55] 
    ListenWhenYouHear wrote:

    CW,

    I wouldn't go as far as to say Trump is just bluffing, but I would say his recent statements fall into the category of bluster rather than a well-thought-out military or diplomatic strategy.

    Did you expect anything different from Trump? The man hasn't had a well-thought-out idea since....since... I'm not sure if he's even capable of having a well-thought-out anything at this point!

    We have two giant spoiled man-babies with inadequacy issues and fragile egos playing a game of atomic chicken with million of lives in the balance.

    It is mind blowing that we live in a country that gives one person the ability to decide when and where we drop our nuclear arsenal; because we arrogantly told ourselves that we'd never allow someone like Trump to ever be the "one".

    I'm sorry, but this is something that should worry everyone.

  56. [56] 
    ListenWhenYouHear wrote:

    Al [2]

    Great article. I read it earlier this week and had saved the link to share with you the next time I logged on here, but you beat me to the punch.

  57. [57] 
    Michale wrote:

    Remind me again how AWESOME California is again??

    Could be worse. At least it's not Florida...

    If THAT is the best ya got, you ain't got nuttin'.. :D

  58. [58] 
    Michale wrote:

    I'll give you credit for this: you wrote that without a hint of irony. See: healthcare.

    You mean the HealthCare where Dumbocrats explicitely STATED for the record that they would NOT work with President Trump or any Republicans on???

    THAT HealthCare???

  59. [59] 
    Balthasar wrote:

    You mean the HealthCare where Dumbocrats explicitely STATED for the record that they would NOT work with President Trump or any Republicans on?

    You're mis-remembering that: from Slate, less than two weeks ago -

    The Republicans Are Not Going to Compromise on Health Care

    Shortly after Arizona Sen. John McCain voted to sink the GOP’s “skinny repeal” bill, he urged Republicans and Democrats to work together on health reform. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer seemed only too happy to oblige, heaping praise on McCain in a statement made shortly after the vote: “On health care, but also in the Senate as a whole, I hope what John McCain did would be regarded in history as a turning point, where the Senate turned back from its partisanship and started working together.”

  60. [60] 
    Michale wrote:

    u're mis-remembering that: from Slate, less than two weeks ago -

    Slate...

    'nuff said..

    Do I *REALLY* need to quote all the quotes from Dumbocrats where they explicitly stated that they would NOT work with President Trump or ANY Republicans???

  61. [61] 
    Michale wrote:

    Did you expect anything different from Trump? The man hasn't had a well-thought-out idea since....since... I'm not sure if he's even capable of having a well-thought-out anything at this point!

    EXCEPT...

    Except for the fact that:

    A> President Trump is one of the most successful businessmen in history....

    B> President Trump bested 19 of the most qualified, most well-funded and most experienced politicians in history..

    and

    C> President Trump DEVASTATED the biggest, meanest, baddest most experienced and most well funded political juggernaut in the HISTORY of the planet..

    On the one hand, we have these FACTS...

    And on the other hand we have your opinion that President Trump never has had a well-thought-out idea... EVER...

    This is EXACTLY why it's so hard to take ya'all seriously at all...

    Ya'all don't think rationally or logically when it comes to President Trump (Did I mention how much I like typing that out??? President..... Trump..... :D)

    It's nothing but hysterical wild Party zealotry...

    Nothing more....

    And yet... Here I am... :D

  62. [62] 
    ListenWhenYouHear wrote:

    Trump ISN'T one of the most successful businessmen in the world. He didn't even make it in the top 400 this year (he's at 554).

    Trump beat out 19 of the worst Republicans to ever run for President.

    Trump lost the popular vote by over 3 million and possibly thanks to collusion with the Russian government.

    Did you see how Trump continues to kiss Putin's rump like VP Pence and others kiss his when he thanked Putin for cutting the number of employees allowed at our Russian embassy? So he's allowing Putin to do his job now and doesn't care who knows it!

    How do you explain it to your grandchild that you supported a man who bragged about sexually assaulting women?

  63. [63] 
    Michale wrote:

    Trump ISN'T one of the most successful businessmen in the world. He didn't even make it in the top 400 this year (he's at 554).

    That's an opinion...

    The mere fact that he is POTUS is a testament to his success as a businessman..

    Trump beat out 19 of the worst Republicans to ever run for President.

    Again, an opinion borne of NOTHING but Party slavery and bigotry..

    Trump lost the popular vote by over 3 million .

    And if the popular vote had any relevance, you would have an argument. But it doesn't so you don't.. Further, those votes came SOLELY from one single liberal state and, as such, is even MORE meaningless..

    and possibly thanks to collusion with the Russian government

    Of which there are NO facts that prove it.. But there IS facts that prove Odumbo knew about the alleged Russian hacking and did NOTHING because he thought NOT-45 was going to win...

    How do you explain it to your grandchild that you supported a man who bragged about sexually assaulting women?

    The same way you would explain to your family that you supported a woman who is the biggest criminal in the history of the union, who caused the deaths of good Americans and who got DEVASTATED by the man who bragged about sexually assaulting women.. :D

    My position is very easy to explain to someone who is adult, mature and not enslaved by Party ideology..

    Yours???

    Not so much.. :D

  64. [64] 
    Michale wrote:

    Even lefty Seymour Hersh agrees that the Russian fable begin in the mind of Obama’s CIA director.

    One wouldn’t expect Seymour Hersh, a lefty journalist par excellance, to pop the Trump-Russia propaganda balloon Obama’s CIA director John Brennan released last year. But he has. Hersh has been quoted as saying that the collusion claim is a product of “disinformation” — “a Brennan operation,” as he puts it.

    Hersh says that Trump is not the villain but the victim in this story, and that the press has served as a shameful stenographer for Brennan to smear Trump. It has shown no skepticism toward any of his claims or the supposedly nonpartisan reports his cronies and political hacks assembled after the election. Hersh calls Brennan an “asshole” and a “buffoon.”
    https://spectator.org/it-was-a-brennan-operation/

    And ya'all (NEN) buy into that RUSSIA HACKED THE ELECTION bullshit hook, line and sinker..

    *SOLELY* because you WANT to believe it..

    Because, the alternative..The FACT is that your candidate was the shitty'est candidate in the history of this country...

    So ya'all (NEN) have to delude yerselves with this Odumbo created fantasy...

    I understand and I forgive ya'all... :D

  65. [65] 
    Michale wrote:

    So ya'all (NEN) have to delude yerselves with this Odumbo created fantasy...

    I understand and I forgive ya'all... :D

    "I understand that you were handicapped by a natural immaturity, and I forgive you."
    -Grace, ARMAGEDDON

    :D

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