ChrisWeigant.com

I See Bee Em

[ Posted Thursday, April 12th, 2012 – 15:56 UTC ]

That title is an attempt to be lighthearted, perhaps what someone would say when spotting two famous Aunties (Andy Griffith's in Mayberry, and Dorothy's in Kansas). But it's a failed attempt, because I'm not saying "I see Bee, Em" but rather I.C.B.M. -- a subject which is the polar opposite of "lighthearted."

An Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile is a rocket that can hit, literally, any place on Earth. It is powerful enough to carry a payload into orbit, or along any suborbital path the launcher chooses. North Korea is about to use one to launch a satellite. Iran used one a few months ago to launch what it claims is its third satellite into orbit.

The satellite isn't the point. The rocket is. The satellites are only a couple hundred pounds, at the most, and substituting a conventional warhead of explosives wouldn't be worth worrying about (America routinely drops bombs which are many times the mass of these satellites, for instance). Because, these days, a nuclear warhead doesn't weigh all that much.

Launching a satellite successfully is a very clear message to the world. It says: we are powerful enough to do this. If the country launching such a satellite also has what used to be called The Bomb, then it is a declaration that they now have the capability to deliver such a weapon anywhere they feel like on the planet (if they can make their Bomb small enough, which is really a separate subject).

What surprises me is that so little attention is paid to such events nowadays. Not to fear-monger or anything, but this is a rather large deal. Anyone who lived through the Cold War knows exactly what I am talking about. Anyone old enough to remember Sputnik really knows the significance.

The Soviet Union launched the first artificial satellite, Sputnik I, in 1957. At the time, the United States could not manage this feat. We were falling behind on the Space Race, and we knew it each time that little beeping satellite flew over our country in orbit. The Russians put the satellite up to show off their technological superiority, and to make a military point: "We have perfected our I.C.B.M. launch system."

Now, in today's world, there are two very large differences with the Sputnik Era. Number one, we do now have vastly superior rocketry and weaponry than either North Korea or Iran. Our nuclear arsenal includes technology that neither country will be able to replicate for years (if not decades) to come. Cruise missiles, for instance, that are capable of delivering a nuke. Secondly, neither North Korea nor Iran now (or at any time in the foreseeable future) qualifies as an "existential threat" to the United States. No matter how much war-mongering is done over either one of them in domestic politics, I haven't heard a single person make the case (in this country -- Israel is obviously different) that North Korea or Iran could ever even hope to rise to becoming such a profound threat to us. The U.S.S.R. was, however.

I'm not writing this column today in any sort of effort to beat any war drums, either, I should point out. I'm not, in fact, advocating any course of action (or inaction) towards either Iran or North Korea. All I'm doing is pointing out a fact which often gets either missed or buried in what scanty reporting is done on the North Korean or Iranian satellite launches.

The satellite isn't the point. The rocket is. Because, much like the "nuclear club" of countries that have nuclear weapons, there is also an "I.C.B.M. club." That membership is what North Korea is striving for, at the moment. Let's not lose sight of that fact.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

4 Comments on “I See Bee Em”

  1. [1] 
    dsws wrote:

    Various Americans have been saying for decades that we ought to somehow move toward a nuclear-weapons-free world, a system of geopolitics where the buck doesn't eventually stop with the threat of nuclear annihilation. Maybe we should get serious about it sometime soon.

    How many nuclear ICBMs does it take to constitute an existential threat to the US, anyway?

  2. [2] 
    Osborne Ink wrote:

    Chris, did you know that when restroom waste is pumped out of the airplanes during commercial flights it sometimes forms ice that breaks and falls to Earth? So no matter where you live you are still vulnerable to a falling Icy BM.

    Ahem.

    Seriously, North Korea has exactly one card to play with the world -- so the regime plays it over and over and over. The rocket also apparently malfunctioned today, which is completely unsurprising. Here's a video of the launch attempt:

    http://t.co/GPp1Fnff

  3. [3] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Osborne -

    HA! Icy BM... that was pretty funny!

    Nice link, too, thanks.

    [Personal note: Hey, can you send me a private email? I think I'm trying to use an old email address for you.]

    -CW

  4. [4] 
    Hawk Owl wrote:

    Chris, the conjunction of your recent "Reagan's Rule" and this column somehow prompted the observation that Reagan's "Greatest" achievement [i/e/. defeating the Soviet Union by forcing them to spend & spend down their national wealth on expensive armies & armaments]looms more & more as a plausible scenario for the US as we continue to fund 1, 2, 3 +? a potential 4th Mid-East war [with Iran] each of them costing the equivalent of our needs for schooling, highway & medical infrastructure, and many other functions which even Republicans have supported for the last century. Could we be letting ourselves in for a similar "Reagan" financial implosion? I have a taste for irony, but this send shivers up my spine.

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