ChrisWeigant.com

Name That Tuesday!

[ Posted Tuesday, February 7th, 2012 – 15:55 PST ]

Today is the first multi-state event in the 2012 Republican primary schedule, and I am shocked -- shocked! -- that the punditocracy has miserably failed to come up with a cutesy-poo name for today's voting.

Back in 2008, for instance, we had events such as the "Crab Cake Tuesday" (my favorite) in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia. Now that's a tasty name we can all sink our teeth into!

But today? Nothing. Maybe I'm reading the wrong news sources or something... somewhere, somebody's got to have dubbed today "[fill-in-the-blank] Tuesday," right? Well, heck, we can do something about it if we put our minds together here... let's see, we've got Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri all on the slate today. Hmmm... that's a bit tough, because it's hard to run a connecting thread through such diverse states. How about "MinneMizzouRocky Tuesday"? Well, a bit tough to say, I'll admit. Or maybe we could go with state nicknames... the "Show Me The Rockies And 10,000 Lakes Tuesday"... well, maybe not.

I throw it open to the readers in the comments, somebody's got to have a better idea than either of those, right? With that out of the way, let's take a crack at predicting the races.

Back in 2008, Super Tuesday actually happened around now. This time around, it has been set back a month, until early March. In 2008, I stopped predicting the top three in all the races around now, but I think I'll continue to call the top three until Super Tuesday dawns this year, or perhaps until someone else drops out of the race. Since I only got one right in Nevada (which was kind of an afterthought last Friday, sorry about that), my record so far for the race:

Total correct 2012 primary picks so far: 9 for 15 -- 60%.

 

Colorado

Polling on all three states is limited, or non-existent. The polls which do exist all seem to be from PPP, which is a Democratic polling operation. Which makes calling all three races somewhat of a dart-throwing exercise.

Colorado, if polling can be trusted, looks to be the easiest race to call. Romney seems likely to gain a comfortable win here, followed by Santorum and Gingrich, in that order. Seems like this state should be a strong point for Ron Paul, but I guess there are more Christian conservatives in the state than Libertarians.

I'm going to play it safe in Colorado, and go with the polling: Romney, Santorum, Gingrich.

 

Minnesota

The other two states are more interesting, because Rick Santorum seems poised for a comeback. Perhaps Republican voters are getting fed up with Newt's antics, or perhaps they've been Santorum supporters all along, take your pick.

In Minnesota right now, Santorum is polling at 33 percent, Romney at 24 percent, Gingrich at 22 percent, and Paul at 20 percent. That's a pretty tight race, especially when you see the poll from just a few days ago as well.

Minnesota is Tea Party country, or at least the Republican parts of it (Michele Bachmann is from here, remember). Santorum voters may be energized to "send a message" to the media that this race is not over, and indeed isn't even the two-man race they've been concentrating on between Newt and Mitt.

I'm going to go with Santorum for the win, here, and trust the polls. Romney will place second, but just barely. For third place, I'm going to go rogue (as Sarah Palin might put it), and predict that Ron Paul edges out Newt Gingrich. Paul's voters are the most committed of the bunch, and this can matter a great deal in lightly-attended caucus states. So, for Minnesota: Santorum, Romney, Paul.

 

Missouri

Can somebody please explain to me what, exactly is the point of Missouri voting? Terms like "non-binding" and even "beauty contest" have been applied to this race, because the voters won't actually be voting for delegates, making the entire exercise seemingly a waste of everyone's time and money. But then, what do I know?

Missouri's easier to call, because Newt Gingrich isn't even on the ballot (whoops!). I'm going with the same order as Minnesota here: Santorum, Romney, Paul.

Santorum is definitely going to gain some momentum tonight, but it remains to be seen whether he can build on it or not, since February's a long month with not many states (or territories) voting after today -- Maine, the Northern Marianas, Arizona, and Michigan round out the month. Romney's going to have a slightly disappointing night, and Newt Gingrich is going to be the big loser -- which should be entertaining, since Newt isn't exactly the poster child for being a good loser. Who knows what he'll say when the results are in? Heh.

Anyway, those are my picks, what are yours?

 

[Previous states' picks:]
[IA] [NH] [SC] [FL] [NV]

 

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

9 Comments on “Name That Tuesday!”

  1. [1] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    I'm calling this one Wild West Tuesday. Perhaps the states aren't THAT far west, but they're further west than any of the prior primary states.

    Colorado - i pretty much agree with you here. Romney, Santorum, Gingrich. It's sort-of a corporate state, and the corporate champion will win out. Gingrich's message most likely falls flat.

    Minnesota - not libertarian? are you kidding me? this is the state that elected jesse ventura governor! i'm not saying ron paul will win, but my quatloos say he'll do better than 20% and land at least third place.

    Missouri - i think romney will win because the population and the major media markets will make his money advantage stand out against santorum. since gingrich voters are split between the southern right and establishment types who don't much like romney, my guess is gingrich voters will split equally.

  2. [2] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    wow, was i ever wrong, looks like santorum is kicking butt and taking names. ron paul does look like he's doing pretty well in minnesota though, so maybe i was right about that at least.
    ~joshua

  3. [3] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Joshua -

    Well, I'm not doing all that much better. Looks like I'm 4 for 6 in MN and MO.

    What's taking CO so long to count votes? They've been stuck at 6.6% precincts reporting for over an hour...

    -CW

  4. [4] 
    dsws wrote:

    In honor of the initials MMC, it could be called 2100 Tuesday. Or if you refuse to double-count the M, it becomes McTuesday.

  5. [5] 
    dsws wrote:

    Of course, the obvious choice is mini-Super Tuesday. To be cute, it would be spelled Minnesuper.

  6. [6] 
    Michale wrote:

    I have given up following the primary because, frankly, they bore me..

    Nothing will likely ever match the fun and excitement of the Dem 2008 primary. :D

    But, I do have to say...

    In honor of the initials MMC, it could be called 2100 Tuesday. Or if you refuse to double-count the M, it becomes McTuesday.

    Of course, the obvious choice is mini-Super Tuesday. To be cute, it would be spelled Minnesuper.

    .... those right there were funny as hell! :D

    Michale

  7. [7] 
    Osborne Ink wrote:

    Isn't there a song about how two out of three ain't bad?

  8. [8] 
    Michale wrote:

    Isn't there a song about how two out of three ain't bad?

    Baby we can talk all night
    But that ain't gettin us nowhere
    I told you everything I possibly can
    There's nothing left inside of here

    And maybe you can cry all night
    But that'll never change the way that I feel
    The snow is really piling up outside
    I wish you wouldn't make me leave here

    I poured it on and I poured it out
    I tried to show you just how much I care
    I'm tired of words and I'm too hoarse to shout
    But you've been cold to me so long
    I'm crying icicles instead of tears
    And all I can do is keep on telling you

    I want you, I need you
    But there ain't no way I'm ever gonna love you
    Now don't be sad
    'Cause two out of three ain't bad
    Now don't be sad
    'Cause two out of three ain't bad

    You'll never find your gold on a sandy beach
    You'll never drill for oil on a city street
    I know you're looking for a ruby in a mountain of rocks
    But there ain't no Coup de Ville hiding at the bottom of a Cracker Jack box

    I can't lie, I can't tell you that I'm something I'm not
    No matter how I try
    I'll never be able to give you something
    Something that I just haven't got

    There's only one girl that I will ever love
    And that was so many years ago
    And though I know I'll never get her out of my heart
    She never loved me back, I know

    I remember how she left me on a stormy night
    How she kissed me and got out of our bed
    And though I pleaded and I begged her not to walk out that door
    She packed her bags and turned right away

    And she kept on telling me
    She kept on telling me
    She kept on telling me

    I want you, I need you
    But there ain't no way I'm ever gonna love you
    Now don't be sad
    'Cause two out of three ain't bad

    I want you, I need you
    But there ain't no way I'm ever gonna love you
    Now don't be sad
    'Cause two out of three ain't bad

    Baby we can talk all night
    But that ain't getting us nowhere.......

    Nope... Never heard of it.. :D

    Michale

  9. [9] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    dsws -

    Maybe "MMcTuesday"?

    I was naming a file of the results, and (trying to keep it short) came up with COMOMN. Not all that great, but then I rearranged it a bit and came up with MOMNCO.

    "Mom-n-company"! How downright American...

    Heh.

    -CW

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