Welcome to the penultimate Electoral Math column.

OK, I admit, I just like correctly using the word "penultimate." Plus, it's fun to say! Try it!

If you detect a certain giddiness here at Electoral Math Central, it is due to the fact that the election is actually drawing nigh, after a seemingly eternal campaign season. It's been a long, long road to where we find ourselves, and we're all feeling the strain. But fear not! Election Day is just around the corner, and just about everything seems to be breaking Obama's way.

"What's that?" you say, "the national polls are close -- I know this because the media told me so!" Well, all I can say is that's what you get for hanging around such disreputable characters in the first place.

(Ahem.)

Seriously, though, I remind everyone once again that we don't elect our president that way. If we did, we'd be at the end of Al Gore's second term right now.

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Good news for the Bill of Rights out of Berkeley -- they've restored free speech. The really astounding thing, and the reason this is a "man bites dog" story and not a "dog bites man" bit of non-news, is that they updated their laws in support of those voicing extreme right-wing positions. Since Berkeley is charmingly known in the Bay Area as "The People's Republic Of Berkeley," this is news indeed.

My position remains unvaried -- the same position mistakenly attributed as a quote to François Marie Arouet (a.k.a. Voltaire): "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." [Voltaire never actually wrote this line, it was falsely attributed to him after his death in a book called "The Friends of Voltaire;" but the line Voltaire actually did write is a pretty good one, too: "Think for yourselves and let others enjoy the privilege to do so too."] The First Amendment is there for everyone, not just those you agree with. In fact, it is specifically there for those with whom most everybody disagrees -- because such minority opinions are the ones most likely to be attacked by the government.

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[Note: I ran this story a few weeks ago, but it didn't get a lot of attention due to the presidential campaign. Now that Senator Ted Stevens has been found guilty on all counts in his corruption case, I thought it was worth running it again.]

[Update:] I did manage to reach Frank Prewitt by phone today, and asked him two followup questions since Senator Ted Stevens' conviction was announced. These two questions follow, before the reprinted article.

What is your reaction to the Stevens verdict?

I'm delighted. It's a sad situation, but I saw it coming.

Do you think this guarantees Mark Begich's election?

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John McCain is losing the race for the White House. Now, this doesn't mean he has already lost it -- we've still got to go vote, after all. I'll cover that aspect in the Talking Points section, but anyone looking at the polls or an electoral map these days would be hard-pressed to come to any other conclusion than: McCain is losing. The question that will obsess many in the media post-election will be: Why? So I'd like to offer my read of why McCain is losing. Call it a pre-mortem. Or maybe that should be pre-post-mortem, I'm not sure.

But what I am sure of is being able to identify the disastrous decisions McCain and his campaign have made (so far... we still have 11 days to go...). I've thought about this for a while now, but didn't want to publish it until I was sure it was too late for the McCain campaign to somehow fix any of these mistakes.

But I feel we've now come to that point, so I've identified the following seven major reasons that McCain may get swamped on Election Night, which I share now to see how many of them become media themes in about two weeks.

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Barack Obama may have just forever changed a sincerely ugly dynamic in American politics that has existed since before I was born -- the old Republican refrain which questions the patriotism of Democrats. They've been beating this drum for a long time, which is why it would truly be stunning if Obama manages to put it to rest once and for all. From McCarthyism to post-Vietnam "Democrats hate our troops" nonsense to silly games about flag-worship to a few days ago, this has been a favorite weapon to use against Democrats: They're not patriotic. They're not real Americans. They don't love their country. They blame America first. In fact, they hate America. Unlike all us America-loving Republicans.

I have always bitterly resented this caricature, I should add. I even write about it (or different aspects of it) every Fourth of July. I fly an American flag on the Fourth, and I make no apologies for doing so. That flag doesn't mean I support the wars George Bush started, that flag doesn't mean I'm more patriotic than anyone else, and it certainly doesn't mean I'm a Republican. What that flag means is that I believe in the ideals of America, while at the same time being patriotic enough to point out flaws in those ideals' execution.

Am I a patriot? I would not use that word, myself. Much like the word "hero," most anyone who uses it to describe himself probably doesn't qualify. Unless you are referring to yourself as a Patriot, and you are indeed a professional football player on New England's team (ahem). Seriously, though, patriot is a word best used about other people, in my humble opinion, and not about yourself. In other words, you don't get to judge for yourself whether you're a hero or a patriot, others do. That may be unfair, but that's how I feel.

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It's quiet out there... too quiet.

Well, not really, but I always wanted to start a column with that line. The news this week is that there's not much news. The state-by-state polls have been remarkably stable for how close we are to Election Day. Some fringe states have shifted slightly for both candidates, but most states appear to be more and more "locked in" at this point.

Which reminds me, what the heck is John McCain doing in Pennsylvania? He must be counting on one whopping big Bradley Effect there, because almost every poll I've seen says he doesn't stand a chance in the Keystone State.

What it may be is that McCain could be pinning his hopes for the entire race on Pennsylvania. It has an impressive 21 electoral votes, and it is looking more and more unlikely that McCain has any way of putting together a 270-vote win. So maybe their electoral math has come down to: if we lose Pennsylvania, we lose the race.

That would be great news for Obama, if it were true. The list of states McCain is rumored to be pulling out of continues to grow (Maine, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado), meaning McCain's got fewer and fewer chances remaining, and possibly no chance at all without Pennsylvania.

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Americablog has an interesting item up today. The photo (reproduced below) is pretty much the entire story. This photo was taken after a McCain rally:

The local Missouri television station that broke the story actually has video, if you're interested.

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While 2008 is guaranteed to be an election "like no other" in American politics for many other reasons, it will also be the first election where the voters themselves may wind up doing the best job of policing the election process itself. The Public Broadcasting System (PBS) and YouTube have teamed up to offer a powerful tool to aid this effort: "Video Your Vote."

In a way, this was almost inevitable. The prevalence of cell phones capable of recording video has grown so fast in the past few years that this will be the first election where if anything hinkey does happen at the polls, there is an extremely good chance that someone watching will pull out a phone and record the video for the world to see. That's a powerful tool, indeed, and may combat fears from both Republicans and Democrats over voting irregularities on Election Day. At least somewhat.

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I started blogging over two years ago. That is to say, right about the time the 2008 presidential campaign began.

OK, that's a bit of an exaggeration. I actually started writing in order to have some tiny influence on the 2006 election, after I wrote the book "How Democrats Can Take Back Congress." But soon after the 2006 Democratic sweep of both houses of Congress, the presidential race began in earnest. Almost two years ago.

And now we find ourselves a few weeks out from Election Day, and things are looking pretty good for Democrats everywhere. It's been an exhausting campaign, and I don't think anyone can argue that the Grateful Dead lyric I used as this week's title is inaccurate. It has been a long and strange journey indeed.

Which brings up a point of sadness for left-leaning pundits everywhere to acknowledge. Since George W. Bush's approval rating is now lower than Nixon's, I feel it is appropriate to misquote Tricky Dick himself. Because, soon, we won't have George Bush to kick around any more.

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Was it just me, or did last night's presidential debate sound like some sort of surreal game of Clue? "It was Joe The Plumber... in the auditorium... with a lead pipe."

Ahem. Sorry, I just had to get that off my chest.

As usual, I don't really have much of an opinion about who "won" the debate last night, because I think such designations are inherently subjective. I can see both sides thinking their candidate "won" the night last night, in other words.

If you were a McCain supporter before the debate, you will likely still be supporting McCain and you will likely think your guy did a good job -- took the fight to Obama, strongly and forcefully made your points, and appeared more upbeat and emotional than during the first two debates. Your thoughts on Obama were likely to be that you felt he did a bad job -- long-winded, couldn't explain things McCain kept hitting him on, and grinning in a disrespectful way throughout the debate.

Likewise, if you were an Obama supporter before the debate, you will likely think your guy did a good job -- appearing calm and rational, answering the questions, refusing to point out what a ridiculous choice Sarah Palin was for a running mate, and addressing issues that average Americans care deeply about while rising above the nastiness of the campaign. Your thoughts on McCain were likely to be that you felt he did a bad job -- jerky, enraged, vicious little soundbites with no substance, demeaning to Obama with his grimaces and raised eyebrows and rolling eyeballs, and obviously clueless about what average Americans are going through.

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