It's Tuesday, so yet again it is primary day, but this week doesn't have any really exciting races on the Democratic side so I thought it was time to take an overview of how the Senate races are going in all the other states.

At this point, regaining control of the Senate is well within reach for Democrats, but will still require a massive shift towards the party from the electorate. This isn't out of the question, as Donald Trump's polling is still at record lows and he keeps actually going out of his way to remind people why they are so dissatisfied with his economic record. Starting up a new trade war with Canada isn't going to do the Republican Party any good in states like Maine and Michigan, to state the obvious. The war with Iran continues to stagnate, with gasoline prices showing no signs of coming back down to pre-war levels any time soon (indeed, they are still up over a dollar a gallon from when the war started). And Trump doesn't care one whit -- he still says affordability is some sort of Democratic hoax. Voters aren't in the mood for such gaslighting, which is why the wind is at the Democrats' backs.

Democrats need to flip four Senate seats, which is a tall order, but they now have multiple paths to victory as more and more states have become competitive (to various degrees). Perhaps this is unjustified optimism, and perhaps the polling will prove to be disastrously off (always an option, these days), but as things stand Democrats are looking pretty good.

Here's my rundown of how things stand at the moment, now that most of these primaries are over and there has been time for at least minimal polling to have taken place after the nominees have been finalized.

Fairly safe bets

Four states seem to be already in the Democrats' column as at least fairly safe bets. They are: Georgia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. The first three of these seats are already in Democratic hands, although in Minnesota and New Hampshire the incumbent Democrat is not running for re-election (which usually boosts the chances for the other party to flip the seat). North Carolina's race is to replace a retiring Republican, and so represents a pickup for the Democrats.

In every one of these states, the most recent poll (or polls) show the Democrat with at least a five-point lead. In particular, Jon Ossoff seems to be skating to re-election in Georgia, which is somewhat of a pleasant surprise (seeing how close the race was when he first won). Even more surprising is how well former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper is doing in the race to replace exiting Senator Thom Tillis.

If all four of these races are won by Democrats, the net result will be "Democrats up by one seat" (out of the four they need to regain control).

Democrats looking good

There are two other states where Democrats are looking pretty good as well, and the really good news is that they are both currently held by Republicans.

Sherrod Brown is a former senator from Ohio, and he's running against an incumbent who was appointed rather than elected (to fill JD Vance's seat). That makes for a competitive race, and Brown has been using the issue of data centers to hammer his opponent hard. Brown has always been a more-traditional progressive Democrat (very strong Union support for his economic populist agenda, in other words), so he can't be painted as some species of radical by Republicans. He's already served, and he wasn't any sort of fringe extremist when he did, so such attacks fall flat. The only poll taken in the past month shows Brown up by a whopping eight points, 53 percent to 45 percent.

Alaska is a tougher race to predict, because it is one of those states that is notoriously hard to poll. But so far, Mary Peltola seems to be in a good position to wrest the Senate seat away from the Republicans. Peltola is also a known candidate in the state, as she was previously the sole House member from Alaska (meaning she had to win a statewide race to get elected). She is running a very local-based campaign, as she has done previously. She is even running ads touting her independence from the Democrats from "the lower 48" to boost her credibility with Republican and independent voters. This is a very big deal in Alaska, and so far it seems to be working for her. The only poll taken in the past month shows Peltola up by six points, 53 to 47 percent, but then polling in Alaska is never all that reliable.

If both Ohio and Alaska are flipped by Democrats in November and if the safe states all go as expected too, then Democrats will be up by three of the four seats they will need to regain control of the Senate.

Tossups

There are four states which could reasonably be called tossups right now -- one currently held by a Democrat and three currently held by Republicans. Three of the races which have already gotten the most national attention are on this list, along with one that has mostly flown under the radar of the national news.

First, we have Maine and Michigan. These are, respectively, one of the biggest upset possibilities for the Democrats and one of the biggest upset possibilities for the Republicans. Maine's Susan Collins is fighting for her political life, but she certainly got a break when Graham Platner's campaign so spectacularly went down in flames. The replacement candidate, Troy Jackson, isn't as exciting a candidate as Platner, but he seems to be holding his own for now. Jackson leads Collins by two points in the only poll from the past month, but much like Alaska, Maine is a notoriously hard state to poll -- and Collins has beaten big polling deficits in previous races. As mentioned, Trump's ill-conceived trade war with Canada isn't going to do Republicans any good here since the state's economy is tied much more tightly than most states to the Canadian economy.

Michigan is where Republicans have the highest hopes of flipping a Senate seat. Dr. Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic primary by only a razor-thin margin, when all the polls were predicting he'd skate to a comfortable win. It was a very acrimonious race, and there are plenty of sore feelings afterwards among some Democratic voters. El-Sayed is already a lightning rod for the right, as he would be the first Muslim senator ever elected, and he supports a democratic socialist agenda. Not surprisingly, ever since he won the nomination, the attacks on him have shifted from his lefty agenda to his religion. Bigotry and anti-Islamic hatred are already part of the campaign against him, to put this more bluntly. El-Sayed's stance on Israel is also worrying many Democrats. Still, he seems to be staying competitive in the polls. There have been four polls taken in Michigan this month, and three of them showed El-Sayed with an edge (of 3 points, 7 points, and 1 point), while only one showed the Republican ahead (by 4 points). That's a pretty close race. Not unlike Maine, Michigan's economy is tied tightly with Canada's, so Trump's new trade war could be a big issue in November. But this race will probably go right down to the wire.

Two other states are also competitive for Democrats, but either one would represent a historic upset. In Texas, the situation in Michigan is reversed. The Republicans nominated the riskier choice in their primary, when Ken Paxton ousted sitting Senator John Cornyn. This took a runoff election which sucked up a huge amount of money for Paxton, while Democrat James Talarico had the luxury of saving up his funds and spending his time raising even more. Paxton so incensed establishment Republicans (who all really wanted Cornyn to win) that his efforts at fundraising have all but dried up. Case in point: Talarico is currently dominating the airwaves in Texas with ads, while Paxton can't afford to run any. This all will doubtlessly change once we get past Labor Day, but Paxton is going to require a GOP white horse to ride in over the horizon to boost his campaign chest. So far, this hasn't happened, but Donald Trump's own PAC is sitting on a mountain of money so perhaps they'll begin funding Paxton's campaign soon. Talarico has been doing well in the polls for a while, but in the only two taken this month he was only up by three points in one of them and down one point in the other. Texas has been an impossible dream for Democrats for decades now, so it remains to be seen whether it'll wind up being disappointing again or not. Talarico winning would be an absolute earthquake in Texas politics, but if it happens it will also be discounted by many as happening just because the Republican candidate was so odious.

The surprising state on this list, where Democrats are actually competitive, is Iowa. Like Texas, Iowa hasn't sent a Democratic senator to Washington in quite a while. It used to be a battleground state and very competitive, but has moved much more solidly red in the past few decades. Democrat Josh Turek has attracted a surprising amount of support so far, and could actually win the state in November. The only poll taken this month showed the Republican up by three points, but the previous poll (from the end of June) showed Turek up by four points. The Cook Political Report recently moved both Texas and Iowa from "Lean Republican" to "Tossup."

Obviously, if Democrats lose the Michigan race, they'll be down one state due to a GOP flip. But if they pick up Maine, Texas, or Iowa, it could mean the margin for control of the Senate. If El-Sayed wins in Michigan, then they'd only need one of those three states to do it (assuming all the previously-discussed races go Democratic as well).

Longshots

There are even a few longshot states where Republicans could conceivably lose seats as well. The Democrat running in Kansas may get the chance to be the first Democrat to represent the state in the Senate since Franklin D. Roosevelt was in office. That would be the biggest political earthquake of all, just on the time scale alone. Democrats have done much better winning races for governor in the Sunflower State, showing that the party can still win statewide elections. Reverend Adam Hamilton hasn't led in any of the polls yet, but he's within five points of doing so (which is impressive).

Nebraska is a strange one, because no Democrat is going to win the Senate race there. They can't -- their candidate who was going to be on the ballot withdrew from the race. This was a strategic move, however, because it will give the Independent running a much better chance of winning. Dan Osborn has already challenged a sitting Republican senator from Nebraska, and he came within seven points of beating her. Osborn is a Union leader and as such is much closer to the Democratic agenda, but has sworn not to caucus with either party. So even if he got elected, he might be one fewer vote for the GOP caucus but wouldn't be an additional vote for the Democratic caucus -- which may be good enough to determine control of the chamber. With the Democrats clearing the field for Osborn (by refusing to field a candidate), he'll get his best shot at winning the seat now held by Pete Ricketts.

Montana, however, is an even longer shot than Nebraska. Sitting Senator Steve Daines is not running for re-election, which set up an open race for his seat. Many national Democrats wanted the same dynamic as happened in Nebraska play out in Montana as well -- have the Democratic nominee drop out of the race to clear the field for an Independent who might actually have a chance. Unfortunately, the Democratic candidate refused to do so. This will likely wind up splitting the anti-Republican vote enough for the seat to remain in GOP hands.

And the longest shot of all (of the states that are even being discussed as possibilities) is Florida. Florida is holding a special election, since Marco Rubio had to be replaced. Democrat Angie Nixon scored a huge upset in the primary race, but because she was such an underdog, there just hasn't been much polling (the pollsters all assumed that Alex Vindman was going to be the Democratic nominee, so they polled him against the probable Republican nominee instead). Nixon's got a hill to climb if she's going to be competitive, but stranger things have happened and she certainly did beat all expectations in the primary, so Florida at least has to be seen as a (remotely) possible Democratic pickup.

Because these are all longshots, if Democrats (or Independents) do chalk up wins in any of them, it will likely be merely the crest of a big blue wave elsewhere. Meaning any wins in these states will likely just pad the margin of victory for the Democrats in the Senate rather than being determinative. But, as I said, stranger things have happened.

Conclusion

A year ago, few thought Democrats had any viable chance of regaining the Senate's majority. The House was seen as a distinct possibility, but the Senate was seen as a bridge too far. That has changed in a big way. Partly this is due to Donald Trump's approval ratings falling off a cliff -- and his disastrous war with Iran and his absolute refusal to admit that the economy isn't wonderful for everybody. But partly it is because Democrats fielded some very impressive candidates in multiple races, while Trump was busily exacting revenge upon Republicans in the Senate that didn't always praise him to the skies (see: John Cornyn and Thom Tillis). This led to weaker candidates for races that probably wouldn't have even been that competitive if Trump had just let things be.

The Democrats didn't get every candidate they had hoped for -- and this is true whether you're a progressive Democrat or an establishment Democrat. They still have four seats to flip, and if they truly want to exercise control of their agenda without a primadonna senator gumming up the works for them at every turn just to be a contrarian (see: John Fetterman), they're going to need to flip five seats. That is a very tall order, even in a midterm with a very unpopular Republican president.

But they now have not just one path to do so, since multiple paths have opened up -- something that was all but inconceivable at this time last year. At this point, I remain cautiously optimistic that Democrats can retake the Senate. Everything's got to go their way in November, but that seems like a distinctly possible outcome at this point.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant