Welcome back, everyone, to our weekly political roundup! We've been away for three weeks, two of which were taken up by our annual year-end political awards columns, and last week was way too close to New Years' Eve to think straight (that's our excuse anyway), so we just tossed up a frivolous column to fill the space. But it's a new year, so it's time to reapply nose to grindstone and get down to brass tacks and all those other Puritan work-ethic metaphors.

I have to say, while the Republicans have been having their three-ring primary circus, President Obama has been looking better and better. Both in comparison to the Republican field (of nightmares, so to speak), and also because Obama's been making progress on his own.

The best news came today, as the official unemployment rate came down to 8.5 percent. This is one of those things that actually filters out of the wonktastic universe (in which we all live) to the American-at-large Joe-Sixpack public. I would be willing to bet that most readers of this column already knew that this Friday was Unemployment Number Release Day, right? Whereas the vast majority of Americans simply don't pay such close attention to politics -- but they will indeed hear that 8.5 percent number in the next few days.

It is, of course, too soon to tell, but this will likely help Obama's job approval polling numbers -- which are already on the rise. If the trend of improving employment continues, it could quite possibly yank the rug out from the entire campaign Republicans have teed up for this year -- so look for Republicans to try and convince America that things aren't really getting any better, over the next month or so. In other words, Republicans will be cheerleading for the immediate failure of the American economy, for base political reasons. So pop some popcorn, sit back, and enjoy!

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When we were all kids, "recess" was one of the happiest words in the English language, because it meant escaping the schoolroom for a while, and (on nice days) getting outside and running around and playing with our friends. The bell would ring, and we would all cry "Recess!" and run outside.

Would we have been just as happy if the word was not used, and we were still allowed to go outside and play? Yes, we would have. If the teacher stood up and announced in stentorian tones "We will all now adjourn to the playground" would we have been equally as joyful? Once again, yes.

Not to belittle the constitutional spat currently taking place in Washington, but I thought it best to put it into some sort of perspective. The reality of having fun on the swingsets and monkey bars far outweighed whatever it was called.

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Trending Upwards

President Obama had a pretty good month last month in the job approval polls, bettering his standing in both approval and disapproval by roughly three-fourths of percentage point. This may not sound like that big a deal, but it was the second straight month of solid gains for the president in both categories.

Because it was also the last month of the year, we will take a closer look at how Obama did in 2011 at the end of the article. For now, let's take a look at the new overall chart for Obama:

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

December, 2011

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I thought I'd wait to write today until the Iowa results were in, because I haven't done one of these "snap judgment" sorts of things for a while. As I begin, roughly 85 percent of the votes have been reported.

Mitt Romney seems to have squeaked out a victory over Rick Santorum, at least if the numbers hold (the two are separated by less than 1,000 votes). Ron Paul has posted a strong third place, with the rest of the pack clocking in at under 15 percent.

What it all means is tough to say at this point. New Hampshire is only a week away, and there will be yet another debate held over the weekend before that happens. Towards the end of the month, South Carolina and then Florida will vote.

The likely storyline to emerge in tomorrow's newspapers may well be the "inevitability" of Mitt Romney. These stories may wind up being correct. Romney seems poised to win a decisive victory in New Hampshire, but that has been expected all along, so it will not shake much of anything up. Winning Iowa, however, could be a much bigger deal for Mitt, because even Romney himself didn't believe he could win here until a few weeks ago. Iowa is a heavily conservative and evangelical state, when it comes to the Republican electorate. Rick Santorum's strong showing certainly proves that. But Mitt's victory shows he can win in such a state, which goes a long way in the "electability" category.

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I realize everyone is probably already sick of hearing predictions about the Iowa Republican caucuses, and if this does indeed describe you then you should probably go watch a football game or something -- because that's exactly what we're going to do today: throw prognosticatory Hawkeye darts at the wall, and take our chances as we may.

There's another sports reference worth mentioning, before we get started here. Sports guys love "stats." They love being able to quantify everything into discrete numbers so it's easy to see who is "best" and who is "worst" and everything in between. Even the sports pundits -- they'll make their predictions about which teams are going to win, and then tally up who got the most right. Personally, I think this is a practice which needs to carry over to the political chattering-class world as well. Pundits on television and in print should put their records up for public viewing, so that people can decide for themselves how much weight to give to future predictions by each of these political wonks.

So before we begin with the 2012 election cycle, here are my stats for the last time we danced this particular jig:

[Final 2008 Primary Pick Stats]
Total correct 2008 Democratic picks: 43 for 60 -- 72%
Total correct 2008 Republican picks: 37 for 50 -- 74%
Total overall correct picks: 80 for 110 -- 73%.

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It's that time of year again -- when we turn our eyes to Lake Superior State University (in beautiful Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan), and their official list of this year's banished words.

It's really not all that amazing or ginormous, truth be told, but since both are on this year's list, we thought it only fitting to throw them into this article's title. The word "amazing" actually had what looks like an organized ballot-box-stuffing effort which successfully put it at the top of the list this year. Which is (sorry, I just have to...) truly amazing.

One other notable entry was "Winning The Future," which (as the folks at L.S.S.U. helpfully point out) has already been used by both Barack Obama and Newt Gingrich on the campaign trail. I think it was the only time last year I agreed with Sarah Palin, in fact, when she (also very helpfully) pointed out that "WTF" has another meaning in the initial-speak of today's plugged-in youth. Ahem.

But enough delay, let's get on with the list! You can view the whole thing (with commentary) at the official page for the "Lake Superior State University's 37th annual List of Words Banished from the Queen's English for Misuse, Overuse and General Uselessness" as it's worth reading in its entirety. This year's banished words and phrases:

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[Program Note: Only a few days left in our Holiday Fundraising Drive! If you're sending your donation in by "snail mail," drop me an email and let me know the amount, and I will add it to our total. We're very close to reaching the goal we set, so get those last-minute donations in, folks!]

In lieu of a column today, we're going to throw the conversation open, with a question to get the ball rolling.

If Ron Paul wins the Iowa caucuses, what will the mainstream, inside-the-Beltway media do?

(A.) They'll suddenly discover Ron Paul, and give him the coverage and seriousness he deserves after winning the first Republican primary season contest.

(B.) They'll trot out the storylines they've been warming up all week to explain why "Ron Paul winning Iowa doesn't matter," and blame his win on (take your pick) the weather, the youth vote, the caucus system, the price of corn, or perhaps marijuana smokers.

(C.) They will totally and completely ignore Ron Paul and his victory, and go back to the Romney-versus-Gingrich storyline immediately.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

[Program Note: We're going to have a week of frivolity here at CW.com this week. Partly, this is so I can work on other projects, and partly it's because nobody's in the mood for politics this time of year anyway (Iowans aside...). To start us off, here's a blast from the past, a cartoon from December of 2007. Hope everyone had a great... um... celebration day! Yeah, that's it....

About the Cartoonist | Reprint Policy

Welcome back to our annual year-end awards column!

In case you missed it, Part 1 of our "McLaughlin Awards" (named for the television show where we get these categories, of course) ran last week, so check it out.

Also for your convenience, here are all the previous years of these columns as well:

2010 -- [Part 1] [Part 2]
2009 -- [Part 1] [Part 2]
2008 -- [Part 1] [Part 2]
2007 -- [Part 1] [Part 2]
2006 -- [Part 1] [Part 2]

   Destined For Political Stardom

From the Republican side of the aisle, Chris Christie springs to mind this year. So does Marco Rubio, but then we gave him this award last year (and we're still betting he's on top of every list of vice presidential running mates out there in RepublicanLand later this year).

This year, instead, we turn to the Democrats to find the winner of Destined For Political Stardom. If Elizabeth Warren manages to wrest Teddy Kennedy's old Senate seat away from the Republican usurper, she will indeed be on the road to Democratic stardom. So far, she's been extraordinarily effective on the campaign trail, and she seems to have a backbone of solid titanium.

Warren is the best the Democrats have seen since Bill Clinton at the ability to make complicated subjects easy to understand to average voters. She doesn't talk down to people, but she does talk in language just about everyone can understand.

Her campaign so far has been the populist model for every other Democrat to mimic if they want to catch the wave of anger at Wall Street, and use it to their benefit. Without question, Elizabeth Warren is Destined For Political Stardom.

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President Obama is looking a lot stronger these days. Today, especially, the president emerges as the big winner in the showdown with John Boehner and the House Republicans. But Obama's been looking better and better all month, so Boehner caving should be seen as just the icing on the cake for Obama.

Of course, a big part of the reason why Obama is looking better and better politically is the fact that Republicans are looking worse and worse. The Republicans could easily have claimed the passage of the payroll tax holiday and unemployment insurance payments as their own victory -- if only they had played their cards right. This is no longer feasible for them to even attempt. Republicans, after all, successfully forced Obama to rescind a veto threat -- which nearly always weakens a president (especially when veto threats have been as rare as they have been under Obama's leadership). Forcing a president to eat his own words on a veto threat is usually considered a win for the opposition party.

Not this time. The entire pipeline poison pill part of the bill has been all but ignored by the media, since there was a much more entertaining story to cover: Republican-on-Republican cage-match fighting. Republicans in the Senate passed the bill with an overwhelming 89-10 vote -- far beyond "veto-proof." But because of this show of strength, it only made the House Republicans look small and petty when they refused to go along with the deal cut by Mitch McConnell. As the crisis dragged on, the House Republicans looked more and more like the gang who couldn't shoot straight. One assumes that after they returned to their home districts, they all got an earful from their constituents about their intransigence. Today, Boehner caved to the inevitable as a direct result.

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