President Obama held a rather extraordinary press conference today, to defend his embattled Obamacare website rollout and announce an administrative fix to the larger Obamacare program of people who have had their insurance cancelled. The big unanswered question after the presser was done: will it be enough?

Obama was as chastened as he's ever been in one of these meet-the-press events. Because it is football season, he deployed on multiple occasions a seasonal sports metaphor, saying "I fumbled the ball." This will, no doubt, be the lead soundbite from the press conference as well as the lead headline in tomorrow's papers. "Fumbled" will be added to "evolved" in the Barack Obama historical political lexicon from this point on, one assumes.

But, as I said, the key questions will all begin with the same phrase. Let's examine a few of these "Will Obama's press conference be enough..." questions.

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The first figures are out for the number of people who have successfully used the Obamacare website to buy insurance, and it is no surprise to anyone by now that they fell far short of the expectations drawn up before the website's launch. The website is undergoing intensive repair efforts, with the target of being up and running for most users by the end of this month. Doubts exist as to whether that target will be met, but there's a whole lot of wiggle room in that word "most," so undoubtedly both sides will spin whatever happens to present it in the worst or best light possible. But what few seem to be talking about is what will happen next -- in the first two weeks of December. Which could be even worse than the initial rollout, as hard as that is to believe.

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Today is a numerically interesting day (being 11/12/13), but other than county clerks being inundated with folks wanting to get married today (one imagines cries of: "Honey, let's get married today, and I promise I'll never forget our anniversary!") it has no impact on national politics in any way. Neither does all the rampant speculation on the 2016 presidential race currently taking place among the punditocracy, but the difference is we're all supposed to pretend it does. So here goes -- my entry into rampant speculation about the 2016 race, and in particular what Chris Christie's chances are.

The proper response to such prognostication, at this point, is really: "It's way too early!" This is because it is, in fact, too early to predict much of anything that will be happening in 2016. It is, to borrow a favored phrase of Steve Jobs, insanely early for such speculation.

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Today's holiday originally celebrated the end of "the war to end all wars," when the 1918 armistice took place on the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month. No World War I veterans still remain alive, and the holiday has grown to honor all America's veterans of more-recent wars -- so much so that many forget the origins of the holiday itself (which used to be "Armistice Day").

Next week, however, is an even more poignant anniversary: the sesquicentennial of Abraham Lincoln's Gettysburg Address, certainly the most well-known speech in American history. Only 275 words long, Lincoln spoke for mere minutes, following a lengthy two-hour oration given by Edward Everett. But today, only scholars remember Everett's name, and few historians bother to read the text of his remarks. Lincoln's words are still memorized by schoolchildren, even to this day.

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Half a year ago, we decided it was time to coin a new political term. We did so in these pages, as a matter of fact, in our "Friday Talking Points [257]" column. But while the concept is indeed now being noticed more and more by others, our neologism doesn't seem to be catching on nearly as well. So we'll repeat the definition we gave it, back in May (once again helpfully pointing anyone who is not aware of the literal, non-political definition of "wedgie" to ask your local sixth-grader to explain and demonstrate, if necessary):

Wedgie: When a political party's "wedge" issue turns on them and instead of dividing the other party, begins to divide their own.

Usage: "Boy, the Republicans are really getting a giant wedgie on immigration, aren't they?"

This week, that example would have read: "Boy, the Republicans are really getting a giant wedgie on gay rights, aren't they?"

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We haven't done one of these guest columns in a while, and (much to my embarrassment) this really should have run weeks ago (when it was written, in the midst of shutdown and debt ceiling fever). I really have no excuse for the delay, and ask that you blame me rather than the author for it not being more timely, as the fault is all mine.

Professor Kenneth Janda is no stranger to these pages, as we've interviewed him previously, back in the 2008 presidential primary season. Janda is the Payson S. Wild Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Northwestern University. He's written an article that is both informative and amusing, and (sadly) while it was more relevant a few weeks ago, it will also become relevant again the next time we all do this insane dance (currently scheduled for early February). So, please enjoy, as you put yourself in the mindframe of three or four weeks ago. Or three months from now, take your choice.

-- Chris Weigant

A Martian Views Our Debt Ceiling Crisis

Welcome to our planet. Sorry that your saucer landed in the U.S. during our messy debt ceiling crisis. I'm happy to answer the questions it prompted you to ask. First: "Is America exceptional among Earth countries in how it funds government?" Yes, the United States operates very differently from most countries that we call democracies. Except for little Denmark, no other democracy has a "debt ceiling." Indeed, no other industrialized country on Earth limits how much the government can borrow and owe.

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Yesterday, the citizens of five counties in eastern Colorado voted to "pursue becoming the 51st state." While seceding was on the ballot in a total of eleven counties, six wound up voting the notion down. But Washington, Phillips, Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties all approved the measure. The chances of East Colorado becoming a new state are pretty slim, but maybe there's another answer to their pleas for autonomy.

East Colorado (or whatever they decide to call it) is just not very likely to become the 51st star on the flag, no matter what the voters in those five counties think. In order for a state to be formed in this fashion, it would require not just a positive vote from those living in the affected area, but also the approval of the Colorado state government -- giving them permission to leave, to put it plainly. And then there's an even higher hurdle: the U.S. Congress would have to vote to approve the plan as well.

Even assuming that Colorado allowed the counties to leave, it would be an almost impossible sell to the rest of the country. You might think other states would shrug and say "fine with us" if East Colorado wants to become a state. You would be wrong. Because of one simple political fact: states get two senators. If it were an easy process, what would stop (for instance) Texas from splitting into five states? Or ten? A better example is the District of Columbia. Washington, D.C. has been pushing for statehood for decades, now. They have not succeeded.

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Some surprising good news

Welcome back to our monthly look at how President Obama's doing in the job approval polling. It is election day today, but it's a fairly minor one, and I already did a write-up on the three major races yesterday, so check it out if you're sitting around waiting for returns to come in.

While Obama hit an all-time low in one recent poll which made a few headlines this week, he's actually not had that bad a month, relatively. In fact, his monthly average job approval number rose for only the second time in his second term. Obama had good news and bad news battling it out this month, and his polling reflected this tension. But the news for Obama in October was a lot better than you might think.

First, let's take a look at the chart with October's numbers added in.

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

October, 2013

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Tomorrow, some of the country will vote on various things and people. Immediately thereafter, pundits will begin reading too much into "what it all means," especially in relation to the 2014 and 2016 elections. I'm personally going to remain rather skeptical, though. Because I don't think there really are any true trends which can be read into these contests, which are all local and somewhat personality-driven. Especially this year.

Tomorrow's balloting is not just an "off-year" election, it is in fact an "off-off-year." That is to say, it's an odd year (in more ways that one, I suppose) and congressional elections only happen in even years. Next year will be Obama's second midterm congressional election, but we should all reflect that a whale of a lot can happen in one year in politics. Which brings me to the conclusion that whatever we're going to be talking about exactly one year from today is likely not being talked about at all, right now. That's politics -- things change quickly, and a year is a very long time.

What others will be saying as the returns come in tomorrow is as predictable as the big three races themselves. There will be victorious conclusions drawn by left and center. The hard right is going to have to stretch to declare any sort of victory, but they're probably up to this fantastical task, if history is any sort of guide. The big three races are for governor in Virginia and New Jersey, and the mayoral contest in New York City. Let's take a quick look at these races, and the conclusions which will almost inevitably be drawn by many.

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Although it's been a week heavy on Obamacare, we're going to (mostly) look forward this week, to the upcoming budget battles. Because buried in the Obamacare stories this week was one very important bit of news which few outside the Beltway even noticed. Which is a shame, because if used correctly it could signal a shift in the conversation in those budget meetings.

To put this another way, while most focused on one broken promise from President Obama this week, he actually made good on an earlier promise -- which is nothing short of astounding and deserves a lot of attention.

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