There's a meme running around inside the Beltway this week concerning the likelihood of Democrats in Congress working with Donald Trump to get some legislation passed. However, much of the gossiping ignores one key question, because so far the speculation has mostly been focused on: "Will they or won't they work together, and what will it mean politically for both?" That's a valid thing to ponder, but the essential part most of this speculation misses is that any collaboration between the two is going to heavily depend on the substance of the issue, and precisely what's being proposed. Substance matters, in other words, even if it is more fun to wonder what the political fallout may be.

Donald Trump started this speculation in his response to the utter failure of Ryancare to even pass the House of Representatives. More interestingly, though, were hints that some of the moderate Republicans in the House may also be considering working with Democrats on legislation, in order to marginalize the Tea Partiers in the Freedom Caucus, who only seem to be able to say "No." Taken together, does this mean a thaw in relations between the two parties? Well, that's overstating the case for now, but the reason it's so tantalizing is that even rumors of possibly working together haven't been heard in D.C. in quite some time.

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A little more than two months in, Donald Trump's presidency is already unique in a number of ways. One of these that has so far gotten little attention (since there's so much else going on) is Trump's complete lack of a honeymoon period with the public. Trump's job approval polling started out pretty bad and it's only gotten worse. The first few months of a presidency isn't always indicative of how successful any president will wind up, of course, but Trump is truly in a category of his own in the polls so far -- and not in a good way.

On the Real Clear Politics rolling daily average page, Trump started out his term just barely above water, with a job approval average of 44.3 percent and job disapproval at 44.2 percent. But that has so far been the only day this has been true -- from that point on, Trump's disapproval has been above his approval rating. His job approval briefly hit 46.0 percent, but it's been falling steadily since then. Trump is currently almost 10 points below water -- his job approval today hit a new low of 42.1 percent, while his disapproval hit a new high of 52.0 percent.

Historically, this is pretty stunning. Presidents usually get a honeymoon period where the public essentially gives them the benefit of the doubt. Disappointment usually sets in eventually, but it normally takes a while to get there. Trump, though, missed out on his honeymoon altogether.

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Never were the words of the Grateful Dead so fitting in the world of politics. "Trouble ahead, trouble behind" is indeed a perfect description of the spot Paul Ryan and Donald Trump found themselves in today. Because Casey Jones faced precisely the same no-win situation, and it didn't work out so good for him, either.

Switchman sleepin'
Train hundred-and-two
Is on the wrong track and
Headed for you

So you'll have to forgive the rather disjointed (and derailed) nature of today's column, since it was written in snatches, in between watching Ryancare explode into a million pieces throughout the day.

Because it's been such an extraordinary day, we're not even going to attempt writing a normal Friday Talking Points column this week. Instead, we've just got an extended rant on the first big failure of the Donald Trump administration (and the Paul Ryan speakership, to boot).

The following was written in fits and starts, which is about as cohesive as was possible today. Because even though legislative death and destruction were in the air, when the collision happened it was almost impossible to tear our eyes away from it. Call us legislative rubberneckers if you will, but we'd bet a fair amount of readers also couldn't tear themselves away from the news today. So with a few final apt lines from the Dead, we'll just get started, shall we?

Come 'round the bend
You know it's the end
The fireman screams and
The engine just gleams

Casey Jones you better watch your speed

A trainwreck is a spectacular thing to see, isn't it?

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The Tea Party is, once again, flexing its muscles. Little noticed in the 2016 election results was the changing ratio between Tea Partiers and the Republican caucus as a whole in the House of Representatives. Republicans lost seats, but not many of these losers were Tea Partiers. This meant the relative strength of the Tea Party increased, overall. The real power dynamic, though, is that when the Tea Partiers hang together, they've got a big enough bloc to halt any Republican-only legislation cold. Which is what they've just accomplished, on the Ryancare bill. Paul Ryan was forced to concede that there will be no vote today, which means he will be robbed of symbolically voting on Obamacare's replacement on the day Obama signed it into existence, seven years ago.

Of course, the bill could still pass. It's important to remember that, even as Democrats gleefully celebrate Paul Ryan being embarrassed by his own party. Ryan's story as I write this (things are changing fast in Washington, so this may not be true by the time you read it) is that they're going to have a big horsetrading session at the White House tonight, and then they'll have a vote tomorrow morning. Will Donald Trump prove himself to be the dealmaker he's always bragged of being? It's certainly possible. So Democrats should still remain wary -- just because Ryan doesn't get his symbolic anniversary date doesn't mean the bill's dead yet.

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You'll have to forgive me for writing this so early, since the tradition is to give a new president 100 days before such an evaluation, but these are not normal times. It's only been two months since Trump took office, but it certainly feels like a lot longer than that. Trump's pace has been pretty frantic during this period, which is the main reason why I decided to take a quick look at how Trump's presidency measures up to his campaign rhetoric.

On some issues, Trump has tried to act but been rebuffed by the simple fact that being president doesn't mean being C.E.O. of a corporation. There are other branches of government which just don't exist in corporate boardrooms, and they occasionally push back against the White House. On other issues, Trump has been figuring out that the real world is a lot more complicated than promising a crowd of adoring fans: "I know how to fix it, believe me!" And on some issues, Trump has already punted the ball far down the road.

Let's take a look at the checklist of Trump main campaign themes, to see how well he's doing in making good on his promises. I've tried to be objective as possible here, and make the attempt at seeing Trump's presidency through the eyes of his own supporters. There's a reason I'm taking this slant on things, which I'll explain in the conclusion.

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What are the chances that the Ryancare bill will pass Congress? We are now two days from its first test, and the answer is as unclear as ever. Whatever happens is going to take the measure of the relative political strength of Paul Ryan, Donald Trump, and the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party. If the Tea Partiers win this struggle, it could doom any chances for actual governance from the Republican Congress for the next few years. If the Tea Partiers lose, there may be a frenzy of primary challenges for sitting Republicans in Congress in 2018. Either way, the next two days could be definitive.

Personally, I have no strong prediction for what's going to happen. There are so many ways it could go, and it's hard to assess each for relative probability. Beyond the Thursday vote (if it even happens, that is), the chances Ryancare will make it all the way to Donald Trump's desk are even harder to figure, at this point. But first, let's take a look at what's going on in the House Republican caucus.

Thursday is an important day for Republicans, because of the symbolism in passing Ryancare on the same day that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act was signed into law, back in 2010. Killing Obamacare on the same calendar day is somehow important to Paul Ryan. Perhaps he's just using this as a goad to accelerate the normal legislative schedule, since he's been trying to hustle this bill through the House as fast as he can. He figures (quite correctly) that the more the public has a chance to understand what Ryancare would mean, the less chance it'll pass, to put it another way.

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Donald Trump will doubtlessly go down in history as many things, but what we're all coming to grips with right now (a bare two months into his presidency) is that Trump will also surely be remembered as the first "Conspiracy-Theorist-In-Chief" in American history. Trump, in fact, personifies the old adage: "I've made up my mind -- don't confuse me with the facts!" This was on full display today, as the heads of the F.B.I. and the N.S.A. testified before a House committee that there is simply no evidence whatsoever that can in any way, shape, or form validate the wild claim Trump made two weeks ago -- that Barack Obama had personally wiretapped Trump Tower during the campaign. This adds to a long list of people (who all have the highest security clearance and full access to such things), all of whom have now said the same thing: no evidence exists whatsoever to back up Trump's bizarre accusation. None. Nada. Zip. Zilch.

But after watching many hours of the live testimony this morning and (for good measure) a large portion of Sean Spicer's press conference today at the White House, I'll leave it to others to point out all the nuances of Trump being totally and completely denied any shred of vindication. Instead, I'd like to take a wider look at the life cycle each one of these Trumpian flights of fancy seems to take. Because so far there have been no real groundshaking consequences to any of Trump's conspiracy theorizing, but that might not always be true in the future. What happens if he gets a bee in his bonnet about North Korea, or China, or Iran? Or the Illuminati, for that matter? What happens when one of these Trump temper tantrums causes an international incident? Accusing a former president of felonious behavior is going to pale in comparison, should that come to pass.

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This was a tough choice to make, for a Thursday column. After all, this was a fairly big week in punctuation news, which normally would be catnip for a pedant such as myself. Not only was the president's spokesman trying to use the old "it was in quotes" defense (or should that be the "it was 'in quotes'" defense?), but there was a recent court ruling which actually hinged on the "Oxford comma." The plaintiffs won because they (correctly) argued that absent the final comma in a list, the final two items have to be taken as a single item, at least legally (it hinged on the phrase "loading for transport or delivery" -- which is different than "loading for transport, or delivery"). As you can see, I could easily have gotten a fun (to me, at any rate) column out of those juicy grammatical items alone.

Instead, we turn to the scintillating world of tax returns. Rachel Maddow has gotten some heat for her usual pedantic opening to the scoop on her show, but the only ones really surprised by it seem to be people who have never watched Rachel Maddow ever before. Putting that aside, I thought it'd be fun to go through Trump's 2005 tax return item by item. If that sounds to you like a less exciting prospect than watching paint dry, well then I'd have to advise you to stop reading right this very minute and go do something more interesting (hint: there are lots of very funny cat videos on the internet, for your endless enjoyment). Plus, this is going to be a fairly long article, even for me. You have been duly warned.

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The myth of Paul Ryan is in serious trouble. This was likely inevitable, but it certainly is on stark display in the debate among Republicans over his "Ryancare" bill, which was supposed to be the "repeal and replace Obamacare" answer to all conservatives' dreams. Quite obviously, Ryan's bill fell far short of this lofty goal. It is currently being savaged from all sides within the Republican caucus alone. But beyond the bill's likely failure, the myth surrounding Ryan is also on life support.

The Ryan myth began with a book about three Republican "young guns" who were the best and the brightest of their generation and who seemed destined for leadership positions within the party. Ryan was lauded along with Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarthy as the future of the Republican Party, but -- importantly -- this was before the Tea Party phenomenon. The phrase "young guns" itself projects a certain cowboy swagger, a manly Reaganesque image of a gun-totin' fighter for the cause. But again, that was before the Tea Party was launched. Nowadays, Ryan doesn't seem to have quite the swagger of a "young gun" anymore, because that role has been co-opted by the Tea Partiers themselves.

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In the hyperkinetic political era we live in, change happens very quickly. President Trump is the driving force behind this increased speed of the political discourse, but Paul Ryan gamely tried to capitalize on the new frenzy by passing his own favored "repeal and replace Obamacare" bill as quickly as humanly possible. He was going to whip it through the House so fast nobody would know what was in the bill, and then the Senate was magically going to refuse to even debate the bill and instead move it directly to the floor for a vote. This would all happen at blinding speed, and then everyone in Congress could go home for the Easter holiday, having already put the bill on Trump's desk. Problem solved!

Instead, it is now looking like Ryan's "Ryancare" bill is going to face a very tough uphill fight, even among his own Republicans. Passage is in no way guaranteed even in Ryan's House, and the prospects of Ryancare emerging from the Senate in its present form is looking vanishingly small. If the Ryancare bill is in serious trouble, what I am now wondering is whether Donald Trump will at some point drop his support for what seems to be a losing proposition. Trump, after all, hates to lose.

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