ObamaPollWatch.com

Obama Poll Watch -- July, 2016

[ Posted Thursday, August 4th, 2016 – 16:56 PDT ]

Obama's Streak Ends

Last month, President Obama's longest winning streak in job approval polling ended. For the first six months of 2016, Obama improved his monthly average job approval number each and every month. That's a longer streak than he's ever managed, to put it into perspective. His job approval rose a whopping 6.5 points during this period, while his average monthly job disapproval number fell 5.4 points. In July, however, both numbers experienced a mild correction, ending this notable streak.

Obama Approval -- July 2016

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

July, 2016

Obama's job approval rating fell 0.4 points, to wind up at 49.6 percent. His job disapproval rose by a half a point, to end up at 46.7 percent. That's still relatively good -- both are stronger numbers than he's seen since the first two months of his second term (in his "second honeymoon" period). But the large gains he made in June couldn't be sustained and fell back a bit for both numbers.

In the political world, July was almost exclusively centered on Cleveland and Philadelphia, where both parties held their national conventions. The vice-presidential picks were rolled out and then Republicans and Democrats both threw a four-day party to formally introduce their candidates to the American people.

Obama's approval likely went down in July because of the timing of these two events. His job approval number was in fairly good shape but then took a dive while Republicans were telling voters what a terrible job he's been doing. They started to recover when Democrats got their licks in the next week. So what is likely happening is Obama's poll numbers mirrored who had the nation's attention. Again because of the timing, this will probably help Obama in August.

 

Overall Trends

President Obama's overall trend lines still look pretty good, even with the dip in July figured in. He's in better shape than he's been all year, with the exception of June's numbers (which rose faster than the general trend he's seen since the beginning of the year). Here's a detail chart of the last year, where this trend can be more easily seen.

Obama (detail)

[Click on graph to see larger-scale version.]

The upward trend for Obama's approval was very strong from January to March, but then tapered off to a slower and more gradual rise. Even discounting the June data point, you can see that Obama is still on that path. While his approval fell 0.4 percent this month, it's still 0.8 points higher than it was in May.

Obama is still a comfortable 2.9 points above water, and his daily approval rate never even came close to sinking below his daily approval rate during the month. This has been true for the past three months now. His daily approval rating started the month at 50.1 percent, dropped during the GOP convention to 49.1 percent, but then rose to end the month at 50.0 percent. This shows his numbers are already recovering, heading into August. Obama's daily disapproval followed a similar path throughout the month, although the end-of-month recovery wasn't as pronounced.

The safe bet for August is that Obama will return to his gradual rise. He might not match June's high point, but he'll likely continue to improve his job approval ratings. Congress is out for the entire month, so there won't be legislative squabbles, and the general election campaign for president will get underway. The funniest shout from the crowd at the Democratic National Convention that I heard was during Barack Obama's speech, when several people yelled "Four more years!" That feeling -- that we're going to miss Obama when he's gone -- will likely only grow over the next three or four months. So I look for Obama to turn his numbers around in August, and post modest gains.

 

[Obama Poll Watch Data:]

Sources And Methodology

ObamaPollWatch.com is an admittedly amateur effort, but we do try to stay professional when it comes to revealing our sources and methodology. All our source data comes from RealClearPolitics.com; specifically from their daily presidential approval ratings "poll of polls" graphic page. We take their daily numbers, log them, and then average each month's data into a single number -- which is then shown on our monthly charts here (a "poll of polls of polls," if you will...). You can read a much-more detailed explanation of our source data and methodology on our "About Obama Poll Watch" page, if you're interested.

Questions or comments? Use the Email Chris page to drop me a private note.

 

Obama's Second Term Statistical Records

Monthly
Highest Monthly Approval -- 1/13 -- 52.7%
Lowest Monthly Approval -- 11/13 -- 41.4%

Highest Monthly Disapproval -- 12/13 -- 54.0%
Lowest Monthly Disapproval -- 1/13 -- 42.6%

Daily
Highest Daily Approval -- 1/31/13 -- 52.5%
Lowest Daily Approval -- 12/2/13 -- 39.8%

Highest Daily Disapproval -- 12/2/13 -- 55.9%
Lowest Daily Disapproval -- 2/24/13 -- 42.3%

 

Obama's Second Term Raw Monthly Data

[All-time high in bold, all-time low underlined.]

Month -- (Approval / Disapproval / Undecided)
07/16 -- 49.6 / 46.7 / 3.7
06/16 -- 50.0 / 46.2 / 3.8
05/16 -- 48.8 / 47.3 / 3.9
04/16 -- 48.6 / 47.2 / 4.2
03/16 -- 48.4 / 47.4 / 4.2
02/16 -- 46.3 / 49.6 / 4.1
01/16 -- 45.5 / 50.2 / 4.3
12/15 -- 43.7 / 51.6 / 4.7
11/15 -- 44.4 / 51.3 / 4.3
10/15 -- 45.3 / 50.0 / 4.7
09/15 -- 45.6 / 50.3 / 4.1
08/15 -- 44.7 / 50.4 / 4.9
07/15 -- 45.7 / 50.0 / 4.3
06/15 -- 44.6 / 50.7 / 4.7
05/15 -- 45.4 / 50.0 / 4.6
04/15 -- 45.2 / 49.9 / 4.9
03/15 -- 44.9 / 50.8 / 4.3
02/15 -- 45.4 / 50.1 / 4.5
01/15 -- 44.8 / 50.5 / 4.7
12/14 -- 42.4 / 52.8 / 4.8
11/14 -- 42.0 / 53.4 / 4.6
10/14 -- 42.1 / 53.4 / 4.5
09/14 -- 41.5 / 53.5 / 5.0
08/14 -- 41.6 / 53.0 / 5.4
07/14 -- 41.8 / 53.6 / 4.6
06/14 -- 42.4 / 53.4 / 4.2
05/14 -- 44.0 / 51.7 / 4.3
04/14 -- 43.4 / 52.1 / 4.5
03/14 -- 42.9 / 52.8 / 4.3
02/14 -- 43.3 / 52.3 / 4.4
01/14 -- 42.7 / 52.7 / 4.6
12/13 -- 41.9 / 54.0 / 4.1
11/13 -- 41.4 / 53.9 / 4.7
10/13 -- 44.2 / 50.8 / 5.0
09/13 -- 43.9 / 50.8 / 5.3
08/13 -- 44.4 / 50.2 / 5.4
07/13 -- 45.3 / 49.2 / 5.5
06/13 -- 46.5 / 48.5 / 5.0
05/13 -- 48.3 / 46.9 / 4.8
04/13 -- 48.6 / 46.8 / 4.6
03/13 -- 48.5 / 46.3 / 5.2
02/13 -- 51.1 / 43.0 / 5.9
01/13 -- 52.7 / 42.6 / 4.7

 

Second Term Column Archives

[Jun 16], [May 16], [Apr 16], [Mar 16], [Feb 16], [Jan 16], [Dec 15], [Nov 15], [Oct 15], [Sep 15], [Aug 15], [Jul 15], [Jun 15], [May 15], [Apr 15], [Mar 15], [Feb 15], [Jan 15], [Dec 14], [Nov 14], [Oct 14], [Sep 14], [Aug 14], [Jul 14], [Jun 14], [May 14], [Apr 14], [Mar 14], [Feb 14], [Jan 14], Dec 13], [Nov 13], [Oct 13], Sep 13], [Aug 13], [Jul 13], [Jun 13], [May 13], [Apr 13], [Mar 13], [Feb 13], [Jan 13]

 

First Term Data

To save space, the only data and statistics listed above are from Obama's second term. If you'd like to see the data and stats from Obama's first term, including a list of links to the full archives of the Obama Poll Watch column for the first term, we've set up an Obama Poll Watch First Term Data page, for those still interested.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant