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Donald Trump visited Capitol Hill today, in an attempt to browbeat his fellow Republicans into supporting a budget bill. Speaker Mike Johnson has his own self-imposed deadline of passing the bill this week, before Memorial Day. Whether this plan succeeds or not is still very much in doubt, however.
House Speaker Mike Johnson is trying, once again, to herd his Republican cats. As usual, this comes to the fore in the form of a budget bill. With a razor-thin majority and several competing factions, the question is whether he can assuage all of them enough to drag his bill over the finish line this week before Congress scarpers off on vacation once again.
Donald Trump seems to now be in full retreat on his trade war. Which is good news, since American consumers are the ones who would have paid the price for it all. The strategy for other countries to follow is becoming clear now -- just wait Trump out, and eventually he will cave on his own, due to political and economic pressures increasing on him over time.
This strategy worked wonders for China, as last weekend Trump dropped his tariff levels against the country by a whopping 115 percentage points. This was precisely what China had been demanding he do before any trade negotiations could even begin. All they had to do was wait.
I've written about this subject before, where I used the phrase: "Be careful what you wish for" in the opening paragraph, so I thought I'd just use it as today's headline. Previously, I had written about an effort in the Senate to introduce a bill that would remove the ability of federal judges below the level of the Supreme Court to issue nationwide (or "universal") injunctions which banned government behavior while a case was being litigated. Here's how Republican Senator Josh Hawley explained the need for the bill he intended to introduce:
What needs to happen is one of two things: Either the Supreme Court needs to intervene and make clear there's only one court that can issue rules for the whole country, that's the Supreme Court, that's why we only have one of them. [O]r, if they won't do that, Congress needs to legislate and make clear that district courts do not have the ability to issue these kinds of injunctions.
Today, the issue was indeed argued before the Supreme Court. And the conservatives on the court seemed open to perhaps limiting or removing the ability of lower-court judges to issue such universal injunctions. To which I again say: Be careful what you wish for.
If you'll check a historic calendar (which is easy enough to do), you will clearly see that there are three possible days which could validly be celebrated as marking the end of World War II. They are: August 14th, August 15th, or September 2nd. The initial announcement of the surrender of Japan was made on August 14th, in Japan. Due to the nature of time zones, this happened when it was August 15th in America already. Then the formal surrender, which happened on the deck of the battleship U.S.S. Missouri, was signed on September 2nd. The president at the time, Harry Truman, announced the United States would celebrate what was known as "V-J Day" (for "Victory over Japan Day") on September 2nd. So that would be the most likely day you'd expect any subsequent American president to announce as a new semi-holiday, since it was when World War II actually officially ended. But you'd be wrong.
There was some good news today for all Americans who cherish the United States Constitution. Interim U.S. Attorney for D.C. Ed Martin's nomination to be permanently confirmed for the job is in trouble. Senator Thom Tillis -- a Republican who will be facing a tough re-election fight next year in North Carolina -- has announced he will not support Martin's nomination in the Judiciary Committee. So Martin's confirmation won't even make it out of the Senate committee responsible for vetting candidates. Since no Democrat is going to vote for him, it leaves Martin with only 11 votes for and 11 against -- which is not enough to make it out of the committee.
Donald Trump hit two milestones this past week: his first 100 days in office, and his first quarter of negative G.D.P. growth. True to form, he celebrated the first of these with a rally, while blaming the second on Joe Biden. He even tried to front-load any bad economic news in the second quarter as Biden's fault too. Oh, and for good measure, Trump expressed a desire to become the next pope. Which would probably be fine with plenty of Americans -- as long as he quits his current job in order to do so.
Which brings us to Trump's strongest point, albeit one where his polling is also falling fast. On the subject of the southern border, the public does approve of what Trump has been doing. But on the larger subject of immigration, Trump is underwater in most polls, after starting out his term with those numbers in the positive ranges.
Let's start with some good news today, shall we?
Donald Trump's second-term honeymoon phase now seems to officially be over. As new polling continues to roll in (in advance of his 100-day mark next week), it seems to all be telling pretty much the same story. Trump is now in a neck-and-neck race for "fastest slide into disapproval ever" -- with himself. Only one other president in modern times has seen his job approval numbers with the public go underwater this fast, and his name was also Donald Trump (in his first term). It depends on the poll, but in some he's already worse than he was at this point in 2017. No other president was even in negative territory at this point, it bears mentioning.
James Carville's famous political maxim ("It's the economy, stupid") needs updating. As we all ride out the Trump Slump in various ways, what we've got now is: "It's the stupid economy." The people running things are stupid. They are making stupid decisions. They have no clue whatsoever what they are doing, and it shows. Stupid is as stupid does. Welcome to The Stupid Economy, folks.