Donald Trump is getting increasingly desperate to declare some sort of victory in his ill-begotten war of choice with Iran (despite his constant bluster that they are the ones who really want a deal right now). Things have gotten so bad that Trump is now reportedly considering just punting the question of Iran's nuclear capabilities altogether. If true, this would be a major development, since while Trump's reasons for starting and fighting this war have changed and evolved over time, the nuclear issue has always remained Trump's main go-to reason for attacking Iran. So throwing in the towel on getting any sort of nuclear agreement with Iran would be seen as an enormous defeat for the U.S. There's no other way to look at it, really.

The Wall Street Journal broke this story yesterday:

For weeks, President Trump had been laying the groundwork to declare victory in the Iran war should Tehran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even floating the idea privately to senior aides that he's willing to walk away without a nuclear deal, U.S. officials said.

In a way, this is a positive development, because it implies that Trump is actually facing the reality of the situation rather than the fantasyland he describes when he blusters to reporters about the war. But that's a pretty small silver lining. If Trump does reach some sort of settlement with Iran that just reopens the Strait of Hormuz, then this will go down in history as the most pointless war America has ever fought. The Strait, after all, was already open before the war began -- so reopening it in no way can be seen as any sort of "victory" for America.

Trump, no matter how much he insists otherwise, is losing this war. A far smaller adversary has defeated the might of the American armed forces, even though they suffered horrendous damages to their infrastructure and leadership. They are winning the waiting game that has developed, and they now know full well that America doesn't dare to launch another full-on attack because we are running out of interceptor missiles to defend against Iranian counterattacks.

Iran is also fully aware of the political situation in America. Midterm congressional elections are less than three months away, and if Trump suffers a big enough defeat, Congress might just completely pull the plug on funding the war. Keeping oil prices as high as possible until November is the smart thing for Iran to do right now, and that means keeping the Strait closed and refusing to come to any ceasefire agreement until then.

Over the weekend, Iran issued a list of demands that would have to be met before they'll reopen the Strait. It is even more tilted in their favor than the Memorandum Of Understanding they agreed to months ago (which has since collapsed). They are feeling in control of the situation, and it's becoming more and more obvious that Trump is getting desperate -- so desperate that now he's willing to punt on the one main reason he keeps pointing to as the rationale for the war. Trump has backed himself into a tight corner, and there's no easy way out:

"Iran's recent hardline demands for reopening the strait make it increasingly difficult for the president to manufacture a face-saving off-ramp from the conflict," said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at the Eurasia Group consulting firm, said, "The Iranians fully believe Trump wants out and is focused on opening the strait, which is why they are playing hardball."

At this point, Iran seems to be holding all the cards (one late-night comedian recently joked that "Iran doesn't just hold the cards -- they've got a strait!"). Time is on their side, America is running out of defensive missiles, and all Trump wants at this point is for the price of gasoline to go back down -- even if that means he doesn't accomplish a single goal he set out to achieve. This all leaves the Iranians free to make whatever demands they feel like, since they do indeed have the upper hand in any negotiations.

Trump being Trump, the heart of the entire issue is his insecurity and petulance. He's always had a massive inferiority complex about Barack Obama, and he was going to prove to the world that he was a much better, much tougher negotiator than Obama. He wantonly ripped up the nuclear deal Obama had forged with Iran and replaced it with absolutely nothing. This is what led Iran to enrich a half-ton of uranium to 60 percent purity. Then Trump tried to just bomb the enriched uranium out of existence -- twice (once last year, and once this year). He failed to do so. Now he is worried (and rightfully so) that any deal that he cuts with Iran dealing with their nuclear program is going to look a lot weaker than the one Obama had already achieved. It's all very personal and petty, for Trump.

Because it is now increasingly impossible to cut any sort of nuclear deal with Iran -- even a much worse deal than Obama's -- Trump is reportedly about to just punt the entire issue away and pretend it doesn't exist:

Hanging over diplomatic talks since April has been the White House's ultimatum that Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon. Trump sought to include nuclear talks as part of broader negotiations with Iran, but those have proven too difficult, leading the White House in recent weeks to focus more on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

. . .

On the nuclear concerns, Trump has told senior aides privately in recent weeks that Tehran is likely unable to revive its nuclear work during his presidency after the U.S. destroyed three primary nuclear sites last year, the officials added.

U.S. intelligence capabilities would likely catch any Iranian attempts to rebuild those facilities or covertly build a bomb, the president has said in recent meetings, and he is confident the threat of more American attacks would serve as an enduring deterrent.

Got that? Trump's going to try to morph "Iran will never have a nuclear weapon" into "everything is fine as it is, we'll just bomb them every so often and we'll leave the whole mess for the next president to deal with."

The Memorandum Of Understanding reached with Iran was a long list of concessions America would have to make to Iran, with only one item that even addressed an American concern (the nuclear issue). But the language in this item was so weaselly and indefinite that it was virtually meaningless. Essentially, Iran agreed to discuss the matter further -- and that was it. Theoretically, the two sides were going to come up with an agreement on the nuclear issue by now (we're roughly 60 days from when the M.O.U. was signed), which would be part of a final peace deal.

Obviously, that didn't happen. The M.O.U. collapsed. And now the Iranians are asking for even more concessions -- a long list which includes a breathtaking amount of demands: "the U.S. would need to permanently end the war, lift its naval blockade, withdraw its forces, end all sanctions, free Iran's frozen assets, pay war reparations, end threats and insults, and stop military action against Iran's militia allies around the region before Iran would open the strait."

America agreeing to anything resembling that list of demands is going to be seen as a total surrender by the rest of the world. The pointlessness of the war is already pretty apparent, but dropping our one demand (on the nuclear issue) and agreeing to everything Iran wants is going to make it crystal clear who won and who lost this war of choice.

Of course, Trump will still try to spin the whole thing as a wonderful victory. That much is guaranteed. His biggest fear is being seen as a loser, so of course he will try to convince everyone that he won the mightiest victory ever in the whole history of human warfare. But in reality, he will fail, because his attempt to "define victory downwards" is going to be just laughable. "We reopened the Strait!" is not a very impressive thing to boast about, when the entire world can see that the Strait would have remained open if this war had never happened. Which is why this will likely go down in the history books as the most pointless war America ever fought.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant