Is Donald Trump about to become a lame duck? Well, that's probably optimistic, but the possibility that people will shortly begin using the term about him does actually exist, and tonight's Republican primary election returns in Indiana will give some sort of indication as to the likeliness of it happening.

Of course, technically Trump won't become a true lame duck (by the traditional definition of the political term) until after the 2028 elections. This year, what may happen is that we see the Republicans in Congress enter into their own lame-duck period, if they lose control of one or both of the chambers of Congress. From the November election until the new Congress is sworn in early next year, Republicans will still be in charge but with the clock ticking until their power will disappear. This is the traditional "lame duck" definition -- the period between an election and when the victors get sworn into office.

However, when used for presidents, the term is a lot more flexible nowadays. If the Democrats do indeed manage to wrest control of Congress away from the Republicans, then for the next two years Trump will frequently be referred to as a lame duck. He will still be in power, occupying his office, but his power will be reduced and the clock will be ticking on his remaining time in office.

I am using the term more broadly when I speculate whether this lame-duck period might begin a lot sooner than even November. Because what the symbolism of a lame duck portrays is a politician whose power has largely already left him, even though he remains in office. And in Trump's case, that boils down to his ability to make other Republicans quake in their boots in fear of his political retribution.

Trump's iron-fisted control over his MAGA base is a rather unique thing in modern American politics. This astonishing control over the GOP voting base is what keeps congressional Republicans in line, cowering in fear of "being primaried" by some other (more MAGA) Republican that Trump hand-picks to defeat them. If the power to follow through on such threats were to fade significantly (or even disappear), then Republicans would get the opportunity to chart a slightly different political course than whatever Trump is demanding on every subject. To put it another way, if Trump's threats are proven to be nothing more than a paper tiger, then they'd be a lot easier to ignore.

That's why a whole lot of political wonks will be closely watching the primary election returns tonight coming out of Indiana. In particular, those of the state's GOP senators who defied Trump's demand to maximize Republican chances of success in the midterms by engaging in mid-decade congressional redistricting.

In Indiana, unlike in Texas or Florida, Trump's demands to redraw congressional House districts was not universally obeyed. The state's lower legislative chamber did indeed pass a redistricting plan, but the state's senate -- even though controlled by Republicans -- voted it down in defiance of Trump. Trump did not take kindly to this rebuke, and has publicly backed GOP challengers to the state senators who denied him more GOP-safe seats in Indiana. Tonight, we will see if Trump succeeds in ousting them, or whether Indiana Republican voters appreciate their elected representatives standing up for what they believe -- even in defiance of Trump.

The likeliest case (statistically-speaking) is that the results are mixed. Maybe some state senators survive the primaries, while others are ousted by Trump's hand-chosen candidates. That would provide a muddied picture, although the balance of how many of each will be interesting to see. But if it's a sweep -- either way -- or close enough to one (winning all but one or two races), then one of two storylines will dominate the political news.

If Trump succeeds in ousting all or most of the Indiana Republicans who defied him, then his power to threaten other Republicans will remain intact (and may even be strengthened). If, however, all or most of his endorsed candidates wind up losing, then it may be seen later as a turning point in the power Trump exerts over his party.

The 2026 midterm elections will be the last that Trump will have to personally bear the consequences of. Once they are over, the Republican Party will begin pondering the question of what the party will look like in the post-Trump era. And once the 2026 primary season is over, Trump's ability to frighten Republicans in Congress will be on the wane as well. He won't hold the same power over the November general election, because what is he going to do? Endorse a Democrat over a sitting Republican? That's wildly unlikely, obviously.

This is all important, because Trump's political positions right now are incredibly unpopular and growing even more unpopular over time. His refusal to end his war of choice with Iran has driven gas prices through the roof and Trump's job approval rates through the floor. Republicans facing re-election really don't want to have to try to defend people being forced to pay four or five bucks a gallon to fill their tanks, to state the painfully obvious. Trump's economic agenda went from being one of his biggest strengths in 2024 to being one of his biggest weaknesses now. His polling on the economy and inflation is truly abysmal, meaning it is equally as hard for Republicans to go out on the campaign trail with a message of: "Stay the course!" Even Trump's standing on his immigration policies have also gone from being a political plus to a political minus (although not as dramatically as the shift has been on the economy). This doesn't leave him with much to brag about, and it leaves Republicans running for re-election increasingly nervous.

But if Indiana voters reject Trump's candidates, then that provides an opening for Republicans. If bucking Trump on a major issue doesn't automatically mean electoral defeat, then more and more of them may decide that the time is now to create some space between their own political stance and that of Trump. If Trump's grip on his party truly is slipping, then it becomes safer and safer for Republicans to start showing some independence from him.

Of course, there's no guarantee that this will indeed happen. Even if most (or all) of Trump's hand-picked Indiana senate candidates lose, it probably won't change things much right away. There are two more races this month where Trump is attempting retribution against sitting Republicans: Senator Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and Representative Thomas Massie in Kentucky. Trump's endorsed challengers to both of them would probably also have to lose before people truly start talking about Trump becoming a lame duck.

Still, it is interesting to ponder, because what the effects of this might be (should Trump's candidates lose) are anyone's guess. Perhaps Congress will pass a resolution calling for the end of the war? So far, every attempt has failed, because not enough Republicans support such a move. But that was before gas prices hit $4.50 a gallon, and they are still heading upwards. If they approach $5.00 a gallon, Republicans might just openly defy Trump and call for an end to the war. Right now, that's the most visible -- and most painful, for Republicans -- Trump agenda item that is affecting the voters.

Even if all this does come to pass, there are probably limits to how far it will go. I can't see congressional Republicans actually growing spines once again and beginning to hold the Trump administration accountable for its many outrages -- if that does occur in Congress, it'll likely have to wait until Democrats do win back control of at least one of the chambers. But if Trump's threats of retribution start to ring hollow, then more and more Republicans are going to see the light that Trump's grip on his party has truly slipped. And that could free them up to decide not to march in lockstep with him on every issue.

Which would indeed make Trump a lame duck, after less than a third of his second term has passed.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant