I do realize it is Groundhog Day, but I am going to refrain from making the easy references to the movie of the same name, mostly because the elections in question happened over the weekend, not today. But it's undeniable that Democrats are on a repetitive roll, winning special election after special election -- and even when they lose one, they manage to shift the margins by double digits their way. Which all bodes well for the midterms, although how much of a harbinger this might all be is always an open question.

This weekend's special elections both happened in Texas: one for a vacant seat in the U.S. House of Representatives and one for a state senate seat. Democrats romped to victory in both.

The House election wasn't in question at all. It's a solid blue district that has previously been represented by Barbara Jordan and Sheila Jackson Lee. So Christian Menefee winning (in a runoff with another Democrat, Amanda Edwards) wasn't any surprise to anyone.

The election was to replace another Democrat, Representative Sylvester Turner, who died suddenly last March, not long after being sworn into office. The Republican governor of Texas delayed holding the special election to replace him for as long as he legally could, but he was finally forced to allow the people of the district to vote and be represented in Congress once again, after almost a full year's delay.

This is significant not for the election result but for what it will do to the balance of power in the House. With another Democrat joining the chamber, Republican Speaker Mike Johnson will now only be able to lose a single GOP vote and still be able to pass legislation on a purely party-line vote. The Republican House majority will stand at only 218-214 (note: House bills with tie votes do not pass, which is why he can only afford to lose one GOP vote). This could become a big deal almost immediately, as the bill to end the government shutdown may have to pass with only Republican votes. And now Johnson can only afford to lose one vote -- which can also include "representatives who can't be present" as well as aisle-crossers.

But the big news came in the state senate race, because a Democratic win there was nothing short of stunning. Here's the basic story:

In an upset that rattled Republicans in Texas and beyond, a Democrat decisively won a state legislative special election on Saturday in a district around Fort Worth that President Trump carried by more than 17 percentage points just over a year ago.

The Democrat, Taylor Rehmet, a local union leader and first-time candidate, defeated the Republican, Leigh Wambsganss, by double digits -- 57 to 43 -- in the historically conservative district.

The contest to fill a State Senate seat had been closely followed by national leaders from both parties as a barometer of potential Republican struggles in this year's midterm elections.

The special election was called because the Republican who held the seat resigned to take a statewide office. This is a seat that has been held by Republicans for decades, in a very red district.

And a Democrat just won this solid-red district by fourteen points. In Texas.

During the campaign, Donald Trump had urged Republican voters to "GET OUT AND VOTE for a phenomenal Candidate, Leigh Wambsganss," who had his "Compete and Total Endorsement." It didn't work, leaving Trump to furiously backpedal afterwards, responding to a reporter's question about the loss rather dismissively: "I don't know. I didn't hear about it. Somebody ran -- where?" When told it was in Texas, Trump continued backing away as much as he could: "I'm not involved in that. That's a local Texas race. You mean I won by 17, and this person lost? Things like that happen. I'm not on the ballot."

Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin had a somewhat different take on the race: "In a Trump +17 district, Republicans had to go all out and still lost this race. Tonight's results prove that no Republican seat is safe." He also called it a "warning sign to Republicans across the country."

As mentioned, special elections don't always accurately predict what will happen in a regularly-scheduled election. Both of the winners of the recent Texas elections will have to run again in November to secure their seats for a full term, meaning that state senate seat could flip back to GOP control in less than a year's time. And turnout is almost always way down in special elections, as only the most dedicated voters make the effort to get to the ballot box. So this doesn't automatically mean that every Republican in every House seat that Trump won with a 17-point margin or less is going to be defeated come November.

Even so, it does show that such a thing is indeed possible. This means Republicans won't be able to just ignore any district with a big Trump margin and assume they are all safe. If Democrats can win not only in a plus-5 or a plus-10 district but in a plus-17 district, then that means a whole lot of Republican-held districts may be up for grabs.

The general trend is that Democratic voters are now a lot more motivated to vote than Republicans. Democrats (and independent voters as well) feel a strong need to send a message to Trump that they disapprove of his actions. Republicans, by contrast, are rather listless and unmotivated.

Democrats have the wind at their backs, as things stand. They are undoubtedly now in a much better position heading into the midterm campaign season than the Republicans. And that is good news indeed.

-- Chris Weigant

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant