ChrisWeigant.com

Will The GOP Haggle?

[ Posted Wednesday, April 14th, 2021 – 16:24 UTC ]

In the next two or three months, we may begin to see an answer to the big question in Washington right now: is bipartisanship still possible? The biggest test of this question will be on President Joe Biden's infrastructure plan. If Republicans can't even vote for an infrastructure bill, then bipartisanship will be seen as stone cold dead, at least until after the 2022 midterms. If, however, some sort of deal is worked out, it could raise the prospects of future cooperation across the aisle -- which Joe Biden would dearly like to see.

There's an interesting development in this storyline, as today it was reported that Republicans may be on the brink of making their own offer. Biden's American Jobs Plan would cost $2.3 trillion, as proposed. The GOP is reportedly thinking of making a counteroffer in the $600 billion to $800 billion range. In days gone by, this would have signalled the start of the haggling phase of the negotiations -- but nobody's sure if that is even possible anymore.

Biden himself has been telegraphing his willingness to go back to the old style of bargaining. He's got personal memories of those days, since he was in the Senate when many bipartisan grand bargains were struck. So he's been dropping rather obvious hints at how he thinks things should really work.

Biden's first big legislative victory was totally partisan -- the passage of the COVID-19 relief package. The American Rescue Plan cost $1.9 trillion, which was exactly what the White House first proposed. Republicans, in that instance, offered around $600 billion as a counteroffer. Biden says he tried to get them to haggle, but apparently they weren't really interested in doing so. Biden went on to admit, after the bill was signed into law, that if the Republicans had been willing to meet him halfway -- at (as Biden himself said) $1.2 trillion to $1.4 trillion -- then Biden would have been amenable.

The math is instructive, here. The gap between Biden's original $1.9 trillion and the GOP's counteroffer of $600 billion is $1.3 trillion. Carve that in half (both sides meeting halfway) and you get a final agreement at $1.25 trillion -- exactly in the range Biden admitted he'd accept.

This time around, Biden is pushing for $2.3 trillion. The GOP is reportedly about to offer between $600 billion and $800 billion, so we'll call that $700 billion for simplicity's sake. Split the difference between these two and you come up with a deal at $1.5 trillion. Could this be the sweet spot for compromise?

Perhaps. In fact, one might conclude, after Biden's remarks on what he would have accepted on the COVID bill, that the White House has been intentionally beefing up the initial ask. To put it another way: if you are shooting for a $1.3 trillion bill, then ask for $1.9 trillion to allow yourself some room to maneuver in the negotiations. Meaning Biden could really only be functionally asking for $1.5 trillion now, not the full $2.3 trillion.

The real question, of course, isn't what Biden will agree to, since he seems pretty amenable to bargaining. He's not wedded to any one detail, the only thing he is truly adamant about is that something get done quickly. Everything else appears open to negotiation. The real question is what the Republicans will be able to do, since they already know that cutting any deal with Democrats is going to be a very tough sell for them in the conservative media and Republican voter base. These days, cutting what used to be a pretty routine deal on infrastructure may get an enraged (if not unhinged) response for "giving Biden a win."

The first big step Republicans are going to have to take isn't going to be the price, however. It will be whether they actually pay for it or not. They are in a total bind here, because according to Republican orthodoxy raising taxes on anyone is bad, but raising taxes on giant corporations is especially bad. And deficit spending is also bad, according to the GOP playbook. So they are damned if they do and damned if they don't. They can either make their own proposals to raise the money somehow or they can just deficit-spend. But they're not supposed to support either one of those things.

In the article which reported the possibility of a GOP opening bid, there was this paragraph tucked way at the end:

[Senator Mitt] Romney later said the $800 billion price tag may be "a little high," though he said the proposal is likely to include funding for highways, railways, airports, water and sewer systems and internet connectivity. The GOP lawmaker said he hopes to finance it through fees on the users of those services, a category of revenue-raisers that could include higher payments on drivers of gas-powered or electric vehicles. Democrats largely have resisted the idea, fearing it may encroach on Biden's pledge not to raise taxes on Americans who make under $400,000 per year.

This is all pretty vague, but it is notable that any Republican is talking about any method of raising revenues at all. That's more than most of them are even able to do, these days.

Even if a group of enough Republicans (meaning at least 10 in the Senate) gets behind a much-smaller infrastructure proposal, it then remains to be seen whether any haggling will even take place or not. It didn't, on the COVID bill. Whose fault that was is open to interpretation, but now that it has happened, Biden clearly will not shy away from just walking away from the table and passing his initial ask (or, more accurately: "as close to his initial ask as Senator Joe Manchin allows him to get) with only Democratic votes. He has made it crystal-clear that "bargaining just as a stalling tactic" is just not going to fly, with him. Meaning the moderate Republicans are going to have to quickly signal their willingness to conduct serious haggling about the final price tag -- or Biden will just walk away from them and leave them out in the cold, once again.

Can 10 Republican senators vote for what will essentially be raising something like $1.5 trillion in taxes? Even to fund projects that the public overwhelmingly approves of? This would be seen as sacrilege by many in their party, if not outright treason. This is why I personally am pretty skeptical that we will see a truly bipartisan deal on infrastructure. I haven't completely given up hope, but the odds are still against such an outcome.

It takes two to haggle, as any Monty Python fan knows ("We're supposed to haggle!"). If one side refuses to, then the whole process grinds to a halt. However, Biden has already proven that if the haggling doesn't happen in good faith (and quickly), then he's content to just pass whatever he wants with Democratic votes. So he holds a lot more power than the Republicans do.

Infrastructure will be the key test. If haggling and cutting a deal aren't even possible here, then it might be a lot easier to convince the so-called moderate Democrats (Manchin, and a few others) that absolutely nothing is going to get done in the Senate without reforming or eliminating the legislative filibuster. If, on the other hand, Republicans do make good-faith efforts at reaching a deal, it will strengthen those (such as Manchin, but also such as Joe Biden) who insist that bipartisanship can indeed return to Washington. Either way, we should see a lot more clarity on this gigantic question in the next month or so.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

26 Comments on “Will The GOP Haggle?”

  1. [1] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    Unlikely.

  2. [2] 
    John M from Ct. wrote:

    Your analysis of the Republican bind over how to pay for their own infrastructure proposal doesn't go far enough. It's not just that the GOP sees "taxes as bad" and "deficit spending as bad". Those positions, in fact, only reflect the fundamental, existential position:

    The GOP sees "government as bad".

    Which, of course, makes it hard to govern when you get a majority in the Congress or a president in the White House. And, in this season's case as your analysis reveals, it also makes it hard to negotiate in good faith about legislation proposed by the other party, now in power, and possessed of the belief that it was elected to run the government in order to govern, which is a normal and even good thing for the country.

    I have to say I get nervous reading your comments about Biden's key weakness, a desire to return to the good old days of compromise, getting half not the whole, and "something for everyone, bipartison tonight!"

    I much prefer reading your columns that assert that Uncle Joe has had his fingers burned by the current Republican Congressional delegation for well over a decade now, and knows perfectly well that bipartisanship is dead now, already, kaput, bye-bye - not at the end of the summer if and only if an infrastructure compromise proves impossible.

    Come on. You're "pretty skeptical" a deal will be reached? You "haven't given up hope?" No offense, but I thought you were more realistic than that.

  3. [3] 
    nypoet22 wrote:

    I don't think Joe believes it will be easy to get Republicans on board, and he's left the door as open as he can. What he's learned from Obama's failures is not to presume. If plan A (bipartisanship) doesn't fly, plan B (reconciliation) and plan C (filibuster reform) are already locked and loaded.

  4. [4] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    Elizabeth,

    Suggested theme for Sunday Night Dance Party, "Cool songs most people have never heard of."

    I'm sure that We the People (you Canucks and Euros, too) have ALL have stumbled across great sh*t nobody else we know likes, eh Gurl?

  5. [5] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    It'll be your chance to maybe introduce we here in Weigantia to some cool Canadian bands.

  6. [6] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    Here we have another example of Planet Dore as just the other division of Planet Orange. They pretend to be at odds with each other although their goal is the same.

    Both are:

    * ignorant (words can't have multiple meanings?)
    * misinformed (their cult leaders are huge liars)
    * dishonest (they mimic their leaders)
    * destructive (their goal)

  7. [7] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    the over 500,000 that have been eliminated by covid as a direct result of people like CW promoting the deception.

    Fuck off shithead troll. CW is not responsible for those deaths, you are. If your One Stupid Demand scam was up and running, all of our problems could be solved, right? Stop harassing, insulting and lying about CW and get off your lazy ass and do something constructive. Your idea is idiotic and trolling isn't going to convince him to promote your idiocy. The icing on the fruitcake is that you claim he's a tool of this Big Money controlled party with two divisions and yet you idiotically consider him a credible advocate for your idiotic anti-Big Money scam.

  8. [8] 
    TheStig wrote:

    DH-7

    Try putting some dressing on your word salads.

  9. [9] 
    Bleyd wrote:

    Perhaps I misunderstood, but I was under the impression that when Biden mentioned the numbers he was willing to work with in a compromise on Covid relief, that roughly $1.3T was what he was looking for from the GOP as their opening bid, meaning the final compromise he was hoping for would have probably ended up in the $1.6T range. That the GOP started out so low as to seem unserious was the reason he walked away. It would be like going to a car dealership and seeing a car with a sticker price of $19000 and starting out offering the salesman only $9000. He'd laugh in your face and ask you to leave, just as Biden metaphorically did to the GOP.

    As a result, I think the number Biden is looking for from the GOP as a starting point for the infrastructure package negotiation might be closer to $1.5T, with the goal being to reach a compromise in the vicinity of $1.9T. If the GOP does end up coming out with a counteroffer of a mere $700B, I think they're going to be dismissed as unserious once again.

  10. [10] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Caddy,

    Suggested theme for Sunday Night Dance Party, Cool songs most people have never heard of." I'm sure that We the People (you Canucks and Euros, too) have ALL have stumbled across great sh*t nobody else we know likes, eh Gurl? It'll be your chance to maybe introduce we here in Weigantia to some cool Canadian bands.

    Sounds like a plan - count me in!

  11. [11] 
    TheStig wrote:

    CW-

    Biden's American Jobs Plan is the political equivalent of what the military call reconnaissance in force - an attack by a substantial force for the purpose of discovering the position and strength of an enemy.

  12. [12] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    I am not in partnership with Trump any more than I am in partnership with Jimmy Dore.

    You are in partnership with Trump and Dore in exactly the same way that "There is one big money controlled party with two divisions"...

    It is basic democracy. If politicians do not do what we want we do not vote for them.

    It is. And almost no one has voted for One Demand. Interesting that...

    And lets face it, you do not need help in discrediting One Demand, you have proven quite adept in that department all by yourself.

    But the question remains: just how many people are creepy stalking? We know CW, Nader and Dore. How many others?

  13. [13] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Once again all you do is repeat an untrue statement equating me with Jimmy Dore and Trump.

    Did I? I said the truth of that statement is the same as your accusation "There is one big money controlled party with two divisions".

    Now explain why democracy doesn't work.

    A bit dense today? I'm saying democracy is working. You put forth stupid idea > nobody votes for it. Successful democracy in action!

    One Demand is not democracy, it is an idea that hopes to succeed within a democratic system, but happens to be failing within that system. If people say yes, that is democracy. If people say no, that is also democracy. So far, "no" seems to be to general consensus of one demand.

    As to the rest of your silliness, you have a chicken and the egg problem. You think if someone, anyone, oh please recognize I exist..., then people will flock to your idea, do all the work you refuse or are unable to do. Then they will all hoist you on their shoulders and carry you off in to the sunset as hero. But the reality is no one wants to touch your sorry ass until you show you are worth touching. All your "deathocrat/republickiller" bullshit and the seriously neglected website say to these people you are not someone to be promoted, you are someone to be avoided. In the end, they have the power and are therefore right no matter how much you would protest otherwise. A website is the modern business card. Instead of a nice printed card, you are handing them a stained cocktail napkin with barely legible scribbles. That does not promote confidence in your idea while at the same time reinforcing your image as a crank.

    ... the biggest problem with our political system- the corruption caused by big money.

    Why is big money the biggest problem?

    Or is that a "bullshit question" AKA too hard for you to answer?

  14. [14] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    The truth of the Jimmy Dore/Trump statement is not the same as the one party statement. One is true (the one party statement) and one isn't true. Not the same.

    Funny, I would have reversed it. My evidence is every time you change your story or put up a new idea one has to just pull up the jimmy dore youtube page and see what his latest videos are and that change is showcased. Your turn: lets see some evidence that the two parties are exactly the same...

    People can't vote for something or say no to it if they do not know about it.

    That's on you. How many years have you been pushing OD without any success?

    The website dodge again? That has nothing to do with the idea that is the subject of discussion. All you are saying with that dodge is "I won't discuss the substance of One Demand because of how it is being presented".

    Ah, no. It's a reflection of you and your movement. The people who you want to promote you are going to look at your site (if they can find it) and judge you by it's look and content.

    It's a problem because the big money legislators only pass legislation that primarily benefits the big money interests while occasionally throwing in a few crumbs for ordinary citizens to make it appear palatable.

    Can you demonstrate this with a bill that has passed congress? Dissect it and show what is big money and what are crumbs? If you can't, why should anyone take you seriously? Just because you say something is true does not make it so...

    80% of citizens recognize that it is a problem.

    A problem. Not the problem. Huge difference there...

    The answer to the question which came first, the chicken or the egg has to be the chicken. (because eggs don't come.)

    But the mutation that defined the modern chicken came in the egg from it's genetic predecessor not the predecessor it's self...

    I am doing the work I need to do. CW isn't.

    No, CW is doing the work he wants to do not the work you want him to do. CW is in no way obligated to give you time of day as is anyone else. Some on this board would prefer none of us would give you time of day...

    You all always want ignore that the commenters at CommonDreams give positive comments that far outnumber the few negative comments.

    A quick search shows not that many comments at all, but I did notice the one where they could not find your site on google. Heh...

    You have proven incapaable of rational discussion once again.

    Yawn...

    Man or woman up and make a real argument instead of childish trolling dodges.

    Double yawn. Projecting like a true trumpateer...

    But at the end of the day, the proof is in the pudding (take that pie!), no one has taken up the mantle to promote OD. Are you self aware enough to ask why?

  15. [15] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Maybe if CW would write better articles that were not Deathocratic big money propaganda it would attract a higher quality of commenters that actually had the balls to have a real discussion.

    Projecting your own foibles again?

  16. [16] 
    Kick wrote:

    Don Harris
    20

    People can't vote for something or say no to it if they do not know about it.

    Proving without a scintilla of a doubt that you're the one who has failed "democracy" in spectacular fashion... on a routine and repetitive basis... lather, rinse, repeat.

    So keeping people from knowing about something that is an option in the democratic process is not successful democracy in action it is actually successful subversion of democracy.

    Since CW has inarguably allowed you to post your ideas on his website unabated for many and multiple years (minus a few days) and has in no way whatsoever kept anyone from knowing about it, then one can only conclude you've successfully subverted yourself.

    The website dodge again? That has nothing to do with the idea that is the subject of discussion. All you are saying with that dodge is "I won't discuss the substance of One Demand because of how it is being presented".

    Your website has "nothing to do with the idea that is the subject"? OMG. That is confoundingly incorrect and gobsmackingly ignorant. If you don't believe that a website or your presentation of yourself on someone else's website has anything to do with whether or not people will "buy into" your idea, then I believe after all these years we've successfully identified your primary reason for failure.

    For instance, I and multiple others have seen your website presentation, your bio, and multiple of your near daily presentations on this website and have decided "nope," and I would wager that is what Bashi is telling you, which is far from a "dodge." If you either don't or can't understand that how one chooses to package/present something matters a whole lot, then therein lies your major problem.

    I am doing the work I need to do. CW isn't.

    Your website is shit; his website is awesome. Speaking for myself, I have chosen not to support your idea, but I wholeheartedly support CW and his website. Perhaps you do realize your efforts in that arena are substandard and inadequate and that's why you hang out here begging for help and CW -- like the vast majority of us -- keeps deciding "nope."

    Contacting and pressuring people like CW is part of how the work is done.

    Nope. That's trolling and spamming a man's blog who has already told you to start your own:

    [48] Chris Weigant wrote:

    Don Harris [14] -

    Let's review. You posted:

    Okay. Let me start off with an apology for not reading the whole article.

    But after a few paragraphs, I just had to comment.

    Then you went off on a tangent that had nothing to do with the article, after admitting that you hadn't even read it.

    Then, in [14], you chide ME for going off topic?

    Hoo boy.

    Look, you've got something to say. You want the focus solely to be on it. More power to you. So as I suggested, perhaps you should set up a blog and write about precisely what you want to?

    https://wordpress.com/start/blog/blog-themes

    Worked for me.

    -CW

    [ Tuesday, March 20th, 2018 at 14:08 ]

    *
    Was that post from three years ago at all unclear?

    So to recap: You're not doing the work. You're trolling and spamming CW to do it for you, and he's already answered you multiple times directly via posts and indirectly by ignoring you but continuing to allow you to post your lousy packaging/presentation on his blog.

    Those are the facts. :)

  17. [17] 
    Kick wrote:

    WEED REPORT

    ____________________00__________________
    ___________________0000_________________
    __________________000000________________
    _______00_________000000__________00____
    ________0000______000000______00000_____
    ________000000____0000000___0000000_____
    _________000000___0000000_0000000_______
    __________0000000_000000_0000000________
    ____________000000_00000_000000_________
    ____0000_____000000_000_0000__000000000_
    _____000000000__0000_0_000_000000000____
    ________000000000__0_0_0_000000000______
    ____________0000000000000000____________
    _________________000_0_0000_____________
    _______________00000_0__00000___________
    ______________00_____0______00__________
    ________________________________________

    Over the last couple weeks:

    * Virginia legalized weed
    * New York legalized weed

  18. [18] 
    Kick wrote:

    Don Harris
    21

    Maybe if CW would write better articles that were not Deathocratic big money propaganda it would attract a higher quality of commenters that actually had the balls to have a real discussion.

    I agree you're a lower quality of commenter. Maybe if you'd start your own blog as CW suggested, you'd write better articles if you actually had the balls.

    So to recap: CW isn't the problem. Your obvious deficiencies are threefold:

    * Your virtual absence of packaging/presentation skills
    * Your demonstrable lazy ass
    * Your total and complete lack of balls. :)

  19. [19] 
    TheStig wrote:

    DH-

    One Demand has been floundering for years. You have no idea how to frame a well reasoned idea or how to defend it before a skeptical audience. All you’ve got is persistent patter that doesn’t address the many logical holes other people find in One Demand.

    Take a course in epistemology. If you can’t find or afford a course, go to your local public library and borrow a book on the subject. Study it. Apply it.

    Or, you just go on being a sad, misguided, word salad slinging troll. Is that fun?

  20. [20] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Really? You can't defend OD or your accusations even slightly? Or just to lazy to do the leg work required?

  21. [21] 
    Kick wrote:

    Don Harris
    28

    Again nothing but moosepoop claims and dodges with nothing of any substance regarding One Demand or anything in my comments.

    It is not a "dodge" to state the demonstrable fact that you display near nonexistent presentation skills on your own website as well as on CW's website too. If you can't grasp the concept that presentation and packaging matters, then no one can help you... or likely ever will.

    You genuinely and sincerely suck at political activism.

    The proof that none of you are capable of rational discussion - only childish trolling.

    I agree that your repetitive bullshit mountain is "only childish trolling"... but I cannot fathom why you'd expect any kind of meaningful discussion to result from your monotonous and self-centered constant whining about your own personal crusade and constant prattling on and on in the throes of your pathological monomania.

    Everything is not about you, Don... but it could be if you had the balls to start your own blog instead of childishly trolling this one with the constant reminders of your years of failure at political activism.

    Are you stupid enough to believe you are actually making any valid points or do you just get your kicks from pretending to be stupid?

    You having a lousy presentation and no balls to start your own blog are demonstrable, verifiable, and valid points... and, hey, we can't all have the bio of Don Harris... that really would make us stupid. :)

  22. [22] 
    John From Censornati wrote:

    Death Harris,

    I am not in partnership with Trump any more than I am in partnership with Jimmy Dore.

    LOL! Absolutely NOBODY would EVER believe that you were. Even losers like those two are smart enough to socially distance from viruses like you.

    You're just an ignorant, misinformed troll who would rather have Florida Man in the White House than Big Money Joe and you mimic Dore like a myna bird.

    Please work on your reading comprehension.

  23. [23] 
    Kick wrote:

    BashiBazouk
    29

    Really?

    I know, right!?

    You can't defend OD or your accusations even slightly?

    His ass is verifiably lazy.

    Or just too lazy to do the leg work required?

    In addition to the lazy ass and legs that clearly don't/won't work, he's absent the balls. :)

  24. [24] 
    Kick wrote:

    Don Harris
    33

    There is nothing in your comments to defend against.

    Of course there is; however, you rarely address anyone's valid points... 'which has definitely been pointed out multiple times by practically everyone here. Your website is outdated, and you claim repeatedly it's not relevant. There are dates all over grocery stores in America for a reason; that's how you know when something is stale. What you're attempting to sell is stale and outdated. If you insist it's not relevant, then you never ever need worry why your product isn't selling. It's stale.

    Give me a real argument instead of childish moosepoop trolling and I will reply to it.

    Update your website and somebody might take what you're attempting to sell them seriously; otherwise, the "moosepoop" of which you speak is alive and well and residing on your website... full of crawly things and a lingering stench that screams: EXPIRED... old... therefore not relevant.

    The funniest part of it is that your dodges and moosepoop is only an admission that you have no rational argument.

    We've given you several on multiple occasions. The funniest part of it is that you're still here and haven't changed a thing and continue to fail because of your demonstrable blind ignorance. There are none so blind as those who will not see. Although, I'm guessing it's hard to see the obvious when you head is shoved so far up your own ass that you won't allow yourself. :)

    When it comes to all of you here, including CW, the question of which came first the chicken or the egg it has to be the chicken because you are all to chicken to have a real discussion without the doges and moosepoop.

    I think you meant "too chicken." You might want to take seriously the fact that no one here is afraid of your stale EXPIRED bullshit. It's outdated and therefore needn't be taken seriously. No one is buying your old claptrap. If they were, there'd be no reason for you to keep trolling this forum with your whiney entitled grievance stale routine that never changes and never produces a thing.

    You keep whining that you are entitled to your opinion, and I reiterate that as long as you spew your opinion, everyone here is equally entitled to give their opinion of your stale and outdated bullshit.

    Grow a pair.

    I was born as a pair and have acquired multiple pairs since that time. I also reiterate that you should never expect somebody else to do something that you won't do yourself. Your shit is outdated, no one is buying it, and there is no amount of your repetitive prattling that will change those facts.

  25. [25] 
    nypoet22 wrote:
  26. [26] 
    Kick wrote:

    Heh. :)

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