ChrisWeigant.com

Don't Forget The Lag Time

[ Posted Wednesday, March 25th, 2020 – 16:32 UTC ]

Tracking the spread of the coronavirus is tough to do on a real-time basis because of several inherent instabilities in the data, and also because of the built-in lag time. We'd all do well to remember this in the next few weeks, when considering when lifting all the social distancing restrictions. President Trump is already leading the charge to get the country back to normal, so this pressure is obviously only going to grow.

As of this writing, there are over 60,000 Americans who have tested positive for COVID-19. This is not the full picture, because of the massive delays that have happened in getting the test kits out to the states where they are needed. Everyone with the coronavirus has not been tested for it, to put it another way, even if they have asked to be tested. Tests are being rationed in several states, meaning there are sick people out there who do not show up in the official statistics. Testing regimes vary from state to state, as well -- some states are aggressively testing, others not so much. This also skews the numbers. This is part of the fallout from the federal government's lackadaisical response to the crisis, but this situation could improve over time. As more and more tests are sent out, hopefully they can be used more universally, rather than being rationed for those hospitalized and most at risk. But if the test shortage is eliminated over the next week or so, it will probably mean the numbers will continue to spike upwards, as more and more sick people actually get tested. This may not be a spike in the spread of the disease more than just the data collection efforts getting good enough to accurately track the spread, though.

For the past few days, the numbers have climbed sharply, but the rate of change may be starting to slow a little. Again, this may not indicate the disease is spreading less, it could also be a result of the shortage of tests or of other factors. New cases are now being reported at roughly 10,000 per day, but that rate hasn't shot upwards (from 10,000 to 15,000 to 20,000 in a few days, in other words). While the overall number gets bigger, if the rate of infection starts to level off then we'll have reached our first milestone in "flattening the curve."

But the numbers reported daily don't tell the whole story, because they reflect what was happening a week or so ago. There's a built-in lag time from when a person gets infected to when they get sick enough to seek out testing. That lag time can be anywhere from a few days to almost two weeks. This is why the new cases reported now don't reflect the current reality of the spread, but rather how it was spreading a week ago. Add in to this a further lag time for conducting the test. It can take days to get test results back, which means someone who was tested last Sunday is just now getting added to the count of those infected. This lag time is going to shorten, however, as the newer tests take only an hour or less. So the data will become much more current as these tests begin to be used on a wide scale. This might result in the numbers spiking upwards much faster, though, as more sick people are actually able to get tested.

Even with the new faster testing, those in charge of making decisions on when to relax sheltering in place should be cautious. Obviously, you don't want to lift the restrictions while the numbers are still climbing at an alarming rate, because that would wipe out any good the period of social distancing has done. The good news for most of us, however, is that President Trump isn't actually in charge of making these decisions. You can't rescind an order you never gave, to put it another way. Almost all of the restrictions have been instituted by governors and mayors, not the federal government. Therefore the decision to lift the restrictions has nothing to do with Trump, because others have stepped into this vacuum of leadership at the top. Doubtlessly, some will follow his lead and crowd into churches for Easter, but many others will listen to their governors and local governments and keep distancing themselves to stay safe. Businesses won't open until they are allowed to, and people won't return to work until they are told it is safe to do so.

This may take awhile, though, especially in the hardest-hit areas. Since the incubation period can last for up to two weeks, even when the numbers stop climbing so alarmingly there may be lots of infected people who don't feel sick yet. This is why those with expertise in fighting pandemics are pushing back against Trump's call to quickly reopen the country. If taking another week or so to verify that the spread of the virus has been checked means avoiding a second outbreak, then it is probably worth doing -- otherwise we'll just start the cycle all over again.

As long as the numbers are increasing by 10,000 per day, common sense dictates that we continue the efforts to stop the spread of the virus. By the time that number starts to decline, the United States will quite likely be the epicenter of the virus, with the most reported cases worldwide. Italy's numbers are beginning to curve a bit downwards, and China is reporting that they're almost out of the woods, having topped out at just over 80,000 cases. If America continues on the path we're currently on, though, we'll have more cases than China and Italy by Friday (or Saturday, at the latest). This will mean that they'll be starting to recover while we're still getting much worse.

The real question is how much worse is it going to get, of course. Where will our numbers top out? When will the curve begin to actually flatten out? We won't know until we get there, but until we do even talking about loosening restrictions is wildly premature.

We should know a lot more in the next week or so. Remember the lag time -- the cases being added to the total today were contracted last week, when the restrictions were just beginning in many parts of the country. If social distancing is working as designed, then the spread of the virus will slow and the number of new cases per day will also begin to hold steady and then go down. This won't happen overnight, but gradually. But because of the built-in lag time, we won't know how well the measures are working for at least a week after the fact.

I don't really have any conclusions to draw from all of this. I have no in-depth knowledge on which to base any such conclusions. But I do know a bit about how data is collected from a wide populace, being a close watcher of political polling. And I've always cautioned those who share this fascination that any political event takes at least four or five days to show up in the polls. The event happens, but it usually takes a day or so for the public to react in any meaningful way. Then polls begin, but it takes a few more days for the pollsters to get a big enough sample. Then the numbers are crunched. By the time the numbers come out to show the public's reaction, the event can be as much as a week in the past.

Now, I realize medical testing of a pandemic is different in many ways than political polling. But what is similar -- and my only real point today -- is that results for both are not instantaneous. With coronavirus testing, there are three lag times that are important to remember: the time it takes for an infected person to feel sick, the time it takes for that person to get tested, and the time the test results take to be reported (both to the patient and to the health departments). So please remember when you hear the number of current cases reported that these don't actually reflect current reality -- they reflect what that reality was last week, at best.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

107 Comments on “Don't Forget The Lag Time”

  1. [1] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    The fans are spinning up. The shit is heading that way…

    “It’s very tough to say to people, ‘Hey keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner, we want you to keep spending because there’s some politician that thinks GDP growth is what counts,’”

    -Bill Gates

  2. [2] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Chris,

    With coronavirus testing, there are three lag times that are important to remember: the time it takes for an infected person to feel sick, the time it takes for that person to get tested, and the time the test results take to be reported …

    So, all of that accounts for the numbers we're getting and when. But, even that doesn't tell a nearly complete story when it comes to deciding when to loosen the restrictions on us and the economy.

    I'm sensing that this virus moves more easily between people than I first understood. And, there must be a substantial number of people out there who have the virus but are asymptomatic and don't know that they are spreading it.

    Which is why I hope these restrictions stay in place well beyond Easter.

  3. [3] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    Probably closer to Memorial Day.

    Which is why there had better not be any more lag time on passing substantial relief for everyone for everything from food to shelter to political contributions.

    The lag time for getting things started back up in the economy will be longer than it took to slow it down. And even if it gets started by Independence Day it still won't be going strong by Labor Day.

    Let's just hope most of them are holidays and not horrordays.

    And we need to stop giving people a reason to go out everyday to buy lottery tickets, a substantial number of which are older citizens.

    Many pick new numbers every day or for other reasons they will not buy tickets in advance for even several days.

  4. [4] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    Speaking of Easter, maybe President Trump will have the Easter egg hunt on the White House lawn this year but instead of candy inside the eggs have coupons that can be turned in for a coronavirus test. :D

  5. [5] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Did you just hear Anthony Fauci?

    There will likely be a second wave of this thing … South Africa is going into its fall/winter season and is reporting cases.

    Time to get serious about this and ensure we are so well prepared for this second wave that it won't be nearly as bad as the first wave.

    Hopefully, they're working overtime on that vaccine!

  6. [6] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    And, this is especially for Michale,
    https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/03/trump-could-have-led-world-against-coronavirus/164086/?oref=defense_one_breaking_nl

    You know, this is what bothers me most about president Trump and has from the beginning of his administration - his 'America First' agenda is really an America Alone strategy that is not good for America or for the rest of us out in the world.

    This article could have come right out of my heart and soul when it comes to all things America and the importance of America's global leadership role.

    Trump's reticence at anything having to do with his global leadership role is, I am literally afraid to say, going to come back to bite in the backside and won't do the rest of us any good, either!

  7. [7] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    "Is there anybody out there!?"

  8. [8] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    No, eh? Well, that's disappointing. Over and out.

  9. [9] 
    James T Canuck wrote:

    "Therefore the decision to lift the restrictions has nothing to do with Trump, because others have stepped into this vacuum of leadership at the top. Doubtlessly, some will follow his lead and crowd into churches for Easter, but many others will listen to their governors and local governments and keep distancing themselves to stay safe."

    I've maintained for decades that churches, and indeed all places of worship should be raised to the ground and religions be excised from body populous.

    These selfish, arrogant and smug individuals saunter in and out of their congregational toilets without any concern for the rest of humanity, spreading disease and virus' because they 'have' the right to congregate.

    Bullshit they do.

    You want to help humanity, abolish religion. Faith is an obscurer of reality. Fuck these people who believe in faith healing especially. How many will these arseholes kill during this pandemic? Let's face it, they're the same idiots that believe they hold sway over all women's fundamental right to the individual control of their reproductive system... No doubt to make up for the needless deaths they cause.

    So, if you're praying for this epidemic to go swifty through the population with the least amount of casualty, do it from home, quietly.

    LL@P

  10. [10] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Great.

  11. [11] 
    Michale wrote:

    And ANOTHER commentary on this pandemic..

    And we didn't see a SINGLE SOLITARY commentary on Odumbo's pandemic where his incompetence killed over 12,000 Americans..

    I find such blatant hypocrisy fascinating..

  12. [12] 
    Michale wrote:

    Bashi!! Good ta see ya!! :D

    The fans are spinning up. The shit is heading that way…

    Yea, ya'all have been saying that since Nov 2016

    YYYAAAAAWWWWWNNNNNNNNNNNN

    I gotta ask... Honestly and seriously.

    Do ya **EVER** get tired of being wrong??

    Does it really gnaw at ya that every call you make is completely and utterly WRONG???

    Doesn't that bother ya??

    Be honest..

  13. [13] 
    Michale wrote:

    FPC,

    Russ,

    From the NYPost: Trump urges Americans to take ‘game changing’ drug cocktail to fight coronavirus.

    So, you were full of shit when you said "Trump claimed that the FDA had approved these drugs for combating the coronavirus, but the FDA has stated that it has not approved any drug for combating the coronavirus."

    Because, as you have just proven, what President Trump ACTUALLY said was that the FDA is moving mountains and hopefully they will approve the drug soon..

    You see, this is the EXACT problem with ya'all..

    It's why I *ALWAYS* have to ask for facts from ya'all..

    Because you spew hate and bile TOTALLY based on NOTHING but your hate and bigotry.. You make all sorts of BULLSHIT accusations and then, when the FACTS actually come out, we all find out how full of shit you are...

    This is exactly like the time ya'all claimed President Trump was racist.. And then I asked for facts and ya'all spewed yer hate and bullshit... And we come to find out ya'all didn't have a SINGLE SOLITARY FACT to support the claim that President Trump is racist..

    And here we are again..

    Russ claims that President Trump said that the FDA had approved this drug combo to fight the chinese virus..

    And when the **FACTS** come out, we learn that President Trump said nothing of the sort....

    And so it goes and so it goes...

    You people really need to seek help to cope with all this hate and bile and bigotry... Not to mention all ya'all's bullshit that is piling up..

  14. [14] 
    Michale wrote:

    As of this writing, there are over 60,000 Americans who have tested positive for COVID-19.

    "As of this writing, there are over 60,000 who have stubbed their toe"

    Yep... Sounds about the same...

    You realize that a LOT of those people tested positive for covid, they were PAST it and didn't even realize they were sick, right???

    Why are ya'all being so hysterical about this, but ya'all IGNORED when Odumbo's incompetence killed 12,269 Americans died??

    Until you can correctly answer that question, ya'all really don't have a leg to stand on morally or ethically...

    And here's another question ya'all can't answer??

    If President Trump is doing so bad, why are the majority of Americans happy with President Trump's covid response???

    Ya'all swear by poll numbers when they say what you want to hear...

    So, either polls are shit are your hate and bigotry are clouding ya'all's reason..

    Given the facts, the conclusion is an easy one to make..

  15. [15] 
    Michale wrote:

    Democrats FINALLY get their shit together..

    Senate passes $2T coronavirus bill; Pelosi indicates support; Trump cheers passage as win for US

    Senate OKs $2T coronavirus stimulus package in unanimous vote; House sets Friday vote
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/final-vote-coronavirus-stimulus-bill-now-imminent-amid-tensions-over-provisions

    After trying to wring some unpopular concessions and getting totally decimated in ANOTHER huge PR loss, Democrats succumb to President Trump pressure and concedes the battle, approving the stimulus package..

    I would love to have been a fly on the wall during THAT Dim meeting..

    "People!!! We're getting hammered!! President Trump is destroying us!!!The American people are lining up to lynch us!!!"

    Dumbocrats tried to play politics and got biatch-slapped down...

    Another day in this great country.... :D

  16. [16] 
    Michale wrote:

    'nuck

    I've maintained for decades that churches, and indeed all places of worship should be raised to the ground and religions be excised from body populous.

    So, this whole "FREEDOM OF RELIGION" thing is just bunk...

    Hay don't get me wrong.. I am as agnostic as they come.. Religion is nothing but a crutch for people who can't handle reality and need an imaginary friend to make it thru life...

    But, I am a LIVE AND LET LIVE kinda guy.. Whatever they want to do is fine.. Just don't involve me in it.

    But... YOU...

    YOU want to actively DESTROY the religions and their places of worship..

    WOW..

    You really ARE a hater, ain'tcha... :eyeroll:

    You want to help humanity, abolish religion. Faith is an obscurer of reality. Fuck these people who believe in faith healing especially. How many will these arseholes kill during this pandemic? Let's face it, they're the same idiots that believe they hold sway over all women's fundamental right to the individual control of their reproductive system... No doubt to make up for the needless deaths they cause.

    So, if you're praying for this epidemic to go swifty through the population with the least amount of casualty, do it from home, quietly.

    WOW...

    The tolerance of the Left Wing fully on display...

    You really ARE a hater, ain'tcha???

    "Well, it's nice to finally have you out of the closet.."
    -Arthur Curry, THE FINAL OPTION

    Some religious nut kill yer cat or something???

  17. [17] 
    Michale wrote:

    By a vote of 96-0, the Senate passed a massive $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus compromise package just before midnight Wednesday, ending days of deadlock and sending the bill to the House of Representatives -- which House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said will soon take up the historic measure to bring relief to individuals, small businesses, and larger corporations "with strong bipartisan support."

    You see how awesome President Trump is??

    He got EVERY scared shitless NOT to vote for the stimulus..

    Thank the gods, we have President Trump in office!!! :D

  18. [18] 
    Michale wrote:

    As of this writing, there are over 60,000 Americans who have tested positive for COVID-19.

    I mean, seriously.. Why don't you point out the death toll???

    I'll tell you why.. Because that number is such a LOW LOW number, thanks to President Trump's leadership, it would be embarrassing to try and scream hysterically about THAT number.. Because if you pointed out the low low death toll, it would stand in comparison to the 12,269 Americans that Odumbo killed with his incompetence...

    Another symptom of HHPTDS.. Blowing things out of proportion to make things look more horrible than they really are to beat on President Trump more..

    Shirley, not "reality-based"...

    HHPTDS based...

    I am betting ya'all CAN'T WAIT until President Trump's death toll exceeds Obama's.. Ya'all are GIDDY at the thought of all those dead Americans you can blame on President Trump... Ya'all are downright EXCITED in yer hopes that 20,000 Americans... 30,000 Americans... 50,000!!!! Americans die....

    JUST so ya'all can blame it on President Trump..

    Guess what??

    AIN'T gonna happen... More likely than not, given President Trump's awesome leadership, we're likely to see less than half the deaths of Americans that was caused under Odumbo's and Biden's bone head incompetence...

    And you people will do what you do best.. LOSE... :D

  19. [19] 
    Michale wrote:

    He got EVERY scared shitless NOT to vote for the stimulus.

    Fingers got ahead of myself there.. :D

    He got EVERY DEMOCRAT scared shitless NOT to vote for the stimulus.

    "This... is much better..."
    -Sandra Bullock, SPEED

    :D

  20. [20] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    Just got back from early senior shopping at the super market. Still pretty much empty shelves, but a little better.

    The new plexiglass shield between the customer and cashier brought back memories of 42nd street- except the girls kept their clothes ON.

    Fortunately, I was able to rely on my vivid imagination. :D

  21. [21] 
    Michale wrote:

    hehehe

  22. [22] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    I don't understand why people would go to church to worship now.

    If they believe God made everything then they should believe God made the virus.

    Shouldn't they be protesting outside the church? :D

  23. [23] 
    Kick wrote:

    Mike
    Russ

    So, you were full of shit when you said "Trump claimed that the FDA had approved these drugs for combating the coronavirus, but the FDA has stated that it has not approved any drug for combating the coronavirus."

    That is actually a factual statement from Russ... so Mike is obviously the one "full of shit" here... by his own definition, of course.

    Because, as you have just proven, what President Trump ACTUALLY said was that the FDA is moving mountains and hopefully they will approve the drug soon..

    Nope. Nothing about "moving mountains" whatsoever... so obviously and as per usual, Mike is the one completely and totally "full of shit"... by his own definition, of course... probably has to write his weight on the wall when he goes to take a dump so he'll know when to stop. Heh.

    Now, a drug called chloroquine — and some people would add to it “hydroxy-.” Hydroxychloroquine. So chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine. Now, this is a common malaria drug. It is also a drug used for strong arthritis. If somebody has pretty serious arthritis, also uses this in a somewhat different form. But it is known as a malaria drug, and it’s been around for a long time and it’s very powerful. But the nice part is, it’s been around for a long time, so we know that if it — if things don’t go as planned, it’s not going to kill anybody.

    When you go with a brand-new drug, you don’t know that that’s going to happen. You have to see and you have to go — long test. But this has been used in different forms — very powerful drug — in different forms. And it’s shown very encouraging — very, very encouraging early results. And we’re going to be able to make that drug available almost immediately. And that’s where the FDA has been so great. They — they’ve gone through the approval process; it’s been approved. And they did it — they took it down from many, many months to immediate. So we’re going to be able to make that drug available by prescription or states.

    I spoke with Governor Cuomo about it at great length last night, and he wants to be right on — on the — he wants to be first on line. And so I think that’s a tremendous — there’s tremendous promise, based on the results and other tests. There’s tremendous promise. And normally the FDA would take a long time to approve something like that, and it’s — it was approved very, very quickly and it’s now approved, by prescription. Individual states will handle it. They can handle it. Doctors will handle it. And I think it’s going to be — I think it’s going to be great.

    Then we’re quickly studying this drug, and while we’re continuing to study it — but the studying is going to be also done in — as it’s given out to large groups of people, perhaps in New York and other places. We’ll study it there.

    There are promising therapies produced by Gilead, and that’s remdesivir. Remdesivir. And that’s a drug used for other purposes that’s been out and has had very good results for other purposes, but it seems to have a very good result, having to do with this virus. And that drug also has been approved or very close to approved, in that case, by the FDA. ~ Donald Trump, March 19, 2020

    [emphasis mine]

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-6/

    My source is the White House website that contains the transcript. Hopefully Mike will go on his usual rant and bitch about the source of the transcript, but I digress.

    As Russ correctly stated, the FDA (that very same day) denied the approval of any drug to combat the coronavirus:

    While there are no FDA-approved therapeutics or drugs to treat, cure or prevent COVID-19, there are several FDA-approved treatments that may help ease the symptoms from a supportive care perspective. ~ FDA

    Because you spew hate and bile TOTALLY based on NOTHING but your hate and bigotry.. You make all sorts of BULLSHIT accusations and then, when the FACTS actually come out, we all find out how full of shit you are...

    Except, Mike is the one "full of shit" and spewing his usual repetitive "hate and bile" and lies, lies, lies all over this board because it's pretty much all he has to defend His Lord and Master Dumbfuck Donald.

    I blame Mike's regularly demonstrated ignorance on that creepy cult worship and constant defense of a criminal reality TV show host con that Mike fell for like a moron in the throes of a full-on drunken stupor. :)

  24. [24] 
    Michale wrote:

    And that drug also has been approved or very close to approved, in that case, by the FDA.

    So President Trump was dead on ballz accurate..

    Either approved of very close to being approved.

    Thank you for PROVING Russ was full of shit..

    Thanx, sweetie.. :D

    You can run along now.. :D

  25. [25] 
    Michale wrote:

    So, Russ *AND* Victoria prove that Russ is full of shit..

    Like I said, it's JUST like the time they claimed President Trump was racist and didn't have a SINGLE FACT to back up the claim... :D

    Thanx again, honey-bunches for proving ya'all are full of shit.. AGAIN.. :D

  26. [26] 
    Kick wrote:

    Mike
    14

    As of this writing, there are over 60,000 Americans who have tested positive for COVID-19. ~ Chris Weigant

    "As of this writing, there are over 60,000 who have stubbed their toe"

    Yep... Sounds about the same...

    What is False Equivalency? I'll take "Things MAGA Rubes Claim About Coronavirus" for a thousand, Alex.

    You realize that a LOT of those people tested positive for covid, they were PAST it and didn't even realize they were sick, right???

    Wrong, wrong, wrong... uninformed MAGA rube. The test you're discussing detects the presence of viral genes via a nose or throat swab -- sputum -- and is positive if active infection is found; however, there is a newly developed serum -- blood -- antibody test that can detect active infections as well as whether or not a person has been infected in the past and possesses antibodies in their blood:

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-blood-tests-antibodies-could-show-true-scale-coronavirus-pandemic

    It's hard enough to get a sputum test for the active disease, let alone get the new blood test for antibodies and evidence of having already had the disease.

    Why are ya'all being so hysterical about this, but ya'all IGNORED when Odumbo's incompetence killed 12,269 Americans died??

    Why do you keep posting your repetitive lies on this forum and whining about the past? It's like you're stuck on permanent liar and moron and determined to misinform the citizenry with information that could actually harm them. Your type of repetitive lies and demonstrable ignorance could actually harm the health and welfare of Americans, and you won't stop lying.

  27. [27] 
    Kick wrote:

    Mike
    18

    I mean, seriously.. Why don't you point out the death toll???

    I would wager CW didn't point out the death toll because it keeps rapidly changing... not going down to zero as claimed.

    I'll tell you why.. Because that number is such a LOW LOW number, thanks to President Trump's leadership, it would be embarrassing to try and scream hysterically about THAT number.. Because if you pointed out the low low death toll, it would stand in comparison to the 12,269 Americans that Odumbo killed with his incompetence...

    Imagine there was this inveterate asshole who kept whining incessantly about the "score" of a golf game between two presidents.

    Now imagine finding out that the golf game turned out to be played on two totally different golf courses and one of the presidents played his round of 18 holes in another decade in 2009 and the other of them was actually still playing his round of 18 holes in 2020 and just finished the 1st hole and got caught lying in the process but nevertheless still had 17 holes remaining to be played.

    How stupid would it be to keep comparing the scores of the presidents when the orange one in white shorts with the bigly fat ass is still hacking away hysterically at his ball and cursing it out for landing in the sand trap?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yr6lnPVc4tg

  28. [28] 
    Kick wrote:

    Mike
    24

    So President Trump was dead on ballz accurate..

    No, he wasn't. Trump lied, and you're an inveterate liar.

    Either approved of very close to being approved.

    It isn't approved, moron, and it's not near approved since they can't find volunteers for the clinical trials that have been approved. First there are months of multiple clinical trials before any drug is approved by the FDA.

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/minnesota-doctor-engaged-fda-approved-hydroxychloroquine-trials-lacks/story?id=69793007

    Thank you for PROVING Russ was full of shit..

    Thank you for continuing to prove you're an inveterate LIAR and the biggest source of bullshit on this forum.

  29. [29] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    Perhaps we could acknowledge that people died when Obama was president. It is possible that he made some mistakes and also that he did some things right and learned from the experience setting up some things that helped prepare somewhat for what is happening now.

    Trump will make some mistakes and maybe do some things right in the current crisis.

    Then we can decide after the crisis is over or at least under control what was done right and wrong and what we can learn from that then.

  30. [30] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    C-Span just popped up a tweet from Tom Cotton about how it is about SURVIVAL.

    Where have I heard that before?

    While he is a Republican, even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

  31. [31] 
    Michale wrote:

    Victoria,

    Yunno what's REALLY funny honey-bunches??

    It's that you actually BELIEVE you have ***ANY*** credibility whatsoever with regards to your President Trump predictions.

    You have ***ALWAYS*** been wrong with ***EVERY*** President Trump prediction you have ever made...

    ALWAYS WRONG.....

    EVERY TIME.....

    So yea.. It's really cute that you actually believe you have even a SMIDGEN of credibility... :D

    Love ya, Snookums... :D

  32. [32] 
    Michale wrote:

    And once again, ya'all ignore the question.

    How can President Trump be a racist if he has a black American as Surgeon General???

    Ya'all just LOVE to ignore the questions you simply cannot answer... :D

  33. [33] 
    TheStig wrote:

    CW-Excellent post!!!!!!

    To all:

    A bit of elaboration on the how and why lags occur and are important:

    It is of great interest to accurately estimate how lethal a disease is in a specific population – a city, a state, a nation, the world. If an individual is infected by a specific disease, what is the probability they will die from the infection? This is a simple computation when an epidemic has run its course – you divide the total number of dead by the total of people infected. If you have historical data, that’s relatively easy, at least in principle - all the cases are closed cases: N number of people caught the disease and X of these died from it. Probability of death = X/N. The data may be a bit fuzzy, but there is nothing especially delusional (biased) about the approach. All the individual cases are closed cases: N people contracted the disease and X died from it.

    The above is a reasonable approach after the epidemic is over- but not so during it. At the start, all the cases are open, people are sick, but nobody has died. 0/N = zero. Early in an epidemic, the number of sick grow exponentially by the day: something such as 1,2,4, 8, 16, 32, 64 in the first week. On day 8, the first patient dies. That is the first closed case – but there are 128 new open cases to add to the 63 that remain open. Does it seem reasonable to estimate the probability of death as 1/128? NO! On day 9 a patient shows no signs or symptoms and is released into the open arms of family and the bill collectors. That is the second closed case…. but 256 new patients are added to the wards or possibly the hall ways.
    You see what going on here. If you treat open cases as closed cases, you greatly underestimate the true lethality of the disease during most of the epidemic. The bias becomes less important as new cases diminish, but it doesn’t go away until the very last day when all cases are closed.

    MAJIKTHISE: Bloody ‘ell! That’s what I call thinking! Here Vroomfondel, why do we never think of things like that?
    VROOMFONDEL:
    Dunno. Think our minds must be too highly trained Majikthise.

    With a few exceptions, the Vroomfondel and mass Majikthise of politics and mass media are citing lethality rates that treat all cases as closed cases. They are dramatically underestimating the best estimates of how lethal the disease really is. Happy talk is not going to lead to sound policy.
    You posted a link to a website that estimates COV lethality using only closed cases. These estimates are dramatically higher than what you read in the papers and see on video.

    I repost one of your earlier links:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    The most recent estimate of COV lethality in the US from the above is 29% Not the low single digits reported by most of the mass media.

    Don’t panic – but be afraid and act accordingly to minimize your personal risk. Maybe point this out to your state and national Reps.

  34. [34] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    Great that McConnell and Schumer have come together to pass the economic bill because as McConnell said that's what we do and Schumer said we do what is needed to help citizens.

    But let's not let them rest on their laurels.

    Let's demand they do what they do to help citizens with the effect of the corona virus with ordinary citizen's ability to participate in our electoral process through campaign contributions as pointed out by Listen.

    The big money interests certainly got a share of the economic package and we should not allow ordinary citizens to be shut out of this election by the economic uncertainty that will continue for ordinary citizens throughout the general election after all the progress that Bernie and others have made in this regard.

    We need to demand emergency political contribution vouchers for every eligible voter.

    Let's learn from our previous mistakes of letting opportunities like this pass by because we were afraid to rock the boat.

  35. [35] 
    Kick wrote:

    Jobless claims soar to record 3.3 million

    It was the largest number, by far, of unemployment claims ever recorded for a single week.

    Unemployment claims rose more than 1000 percent last week to 3.3 million, the Labor Department reported Thursday, as the coronavirus pandemic and government measures to limit its devastation brought huge swaths of the U.S. economy to a halt.

    It was the largest number, by far, of unemployment claims ever recorded for a single week since the government began collecting this data in 1967, and analysts predict more eye-popping numbers in the coming weeks as layoffs and bankruptcies continue through a crisis that economists are starting to compare to the Great Depression of the 1930s.

    The 3.3 million figure was seasonally adjusted. The raw numerical increase, 2.9 million claims, also shattered records. The previous record increase, in 1982, was about 700,000 claims.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/26/unemployment-claims-numbers-release-150052

    Wow... a 1000% percent rise in unemployment claims in 1 week... and another record blown into tiny little bits courtesy of the incomparable incompetence of Donald Trump.

  36. [36] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Michale,

    And we didn't see a SINGLE SOLITARY commentary on Odumbo's pandemic where his incompetence killed over 12,000 Americans..

    I noticed that you were playing the toss big scary numbers out and pretend they mean something game. Between your ass-facts (your mortality rate is 4 orders of magnitude off) and that your big number is quite small for a pandemic I thought it a bit desperate even for you. But if you want to know how Obama did on the swine flu epidemic I have a great bellwether. You ask why none us criticized Obama on the 2009 epidemic? Well, what about you? You who criticized Obama on every possible thing real or imagined (mostly imagined) did not once criticize Obama on his handling on that epidemic while he was in office. I mean the poor man took a shit in the wrong White house bathroom we had to suffer 37 posts about how it was the end of America as we know it but did not criticize him once on the swine flu epidemic? That’s the fucking gold standard baby on an outstanding job well done!

  37. [37] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    While we missed the boat on naming the economic legislation we could name the emergency political contribution voucher legislation "The 2020 Democracy Survival Act."

  38. [38] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    "Trump, Obama
    Trump, Obama
    Live vicariously with some drama
    From end to beginning
    Thinking loses out to WINNING.."
    Married with Children theme parody

  39. [39] 
    Michale wrote:

    I noticed that you were playing the toss big scary numbers out and pretend they mean something game.

    Only an Odumbo-lover would call over 12,000 Americans dead "a game".. :eyeroll:

    did not criticize him once on the swine flu epidemic?

    Actually, I did.. Several times.. But, of course, you won't bother conceding the point so I see no need to waste my time proving it to you..

    Yes, the Swine Flu pandemic was just another example of Odumbo's many frak-ups..

    And you KNOW I wouldn't miss a chance to knock Odumbo on his frak ups..

    So yes... I did slam Odumbo for that...

    But you'll just run away and ignore the FACTS after I prove them, so there is no incentive for me to do so..

    But, hay.. It was a really nice attempt at dodging and deflection... But, as usual..

    EPIC fail...

  40. [40] 
    Michale wrote:

    Wow... a 1000% percent rise in unemployment claims in 1 week... and another record blown into tiny little bits courtesy of the incomparable incompetence of Donald Trump.

    Really??

    So, the LOWEST unemployment in history for minorities and the LOWEST unemployment in DECADES for everyone else.

    THAT is not because of President Trump..

    But have a pandemic that YOU moronic Democrats have hyped up and fear-mongered as the end of the world.

    THAT raises Unemployment and, ALL OF THE SUDDEN, it's ALL on President Trump..

    Your hatred and bigotry is only matched by your stoopidity and moronic-ness....

    Love ya, honey bunch.. :D

  41. [41] 
    Michale wrote:

    Bashi,

    But hay... I'll give you the kind of links you people give me.. I'll give ya'all the kind of "facts" ya'all give me when you want to prove your claim..

    Read all of CWs commentaries between Jan 2009 and Dec 2010... You'll find all the comments there.. :D

    Have a ball... :D

  42. [42] 
    James T Canuck wrote:

    Not to sound like a broken record, but I did say that if you're ever confused, 'do and say the exact opposite of what Trump does and says'...

    Behold... https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/other/trump-team-failed-to-follow-nsc-s-pandemic-playbook/ar-BB11IkBV?ocid=msedgdhp

    Seems the handbook that exists had it right, Trump did the opposite... Go figure.

    LL&P

    PS, Bernie's Medicare for all and income equality plans are looking better in hindsight, eh...

  43. [43] 
    James T Canuck wrote:

    ...And yes, Michale, all religion should be utterly stamped out, and their leaders put to the sword. Fairy tails and belief in magic should never be a fallback contingency.

    LL&P

  44. [44] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Actually, I did.. Several times.. But, of course, you won't bother conceding the point so I see no need to waste my time proving it to you..

    Bullshit. You won't prove it because you can't...

  45. [45] 
    Michale wrote:

    Bullshit. You won't prove it because you can't...

    And yet, like you yourself said, I would *NEVER* miss a chance to tout Odumbo's frak ups..

    So, by your own admission, those comments ARE out there..

    I just know you will run away and hide when I show them to you, never conceding you were wrong AGAIN..

    So, there is no upside for me to waste my time..

    But I accept your concession..

  46. [46] 
    Michale wrote:

    ...And yes, Michale, all religion should be utterly stamped out, and their leaders put to the sword.

    How so tolerant of you, 'nuck...

    PS, Bernie's Medicare for all and income equality plans are looking better in hindsight, eh...

    Really???

    Italy has universal healthcare for all, ya moron..

    DUH....... :eyeroll:

  47. [47] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    JTC-
    Or we could just let people wait until they die on their own and find out there is no speedy trial guarantee for their judgement day as there is no trial or judgement day. :D

  48. [48] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Michale [45]

    I see a lot of lip flappin' and no provin'.

    Put up or shut up!

  49. [49] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    Speaking of churches- overheard in a confessional:

    " Forgive me, Father for I have sinned.

    Last week I came in to the confessional and touched and breathed on everything even though I knew I had the corona virus because I hate Catholics." :D

  50. [50] 
    Michale wrote:

    Bashi,

    I see a lot of lip flappin' and no provin'.

    Put up or shut up!

    You proved it for me.. :D

    Thanx bucko.. Don't be a stranger.. :D

  51. [51] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Michale [50]

    Gold standard baby! By your inability to prove otherwise, I take your concession...

  52. [52] 
    Kick wrote:

    FUN FACT

    Donald Trump was one of the people freaking out and calling in to Fox News Entertainment propaganda and referring to Obama as "incompetent" for his handling of the Ebola crisis, and that fact makes Trump a failure of exponential proportions when graded by Trump's very own metric. Additionally, Trump failed his own "playing golf" metric on an epic scale:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0NhA4oBGuc

    Interesting comparison video... what a bunch of reeking hypocrites.

    Does anybody on this forum remember Mike criticizing Donald Trump and the right-wingnut hysterical media for any of that? <--- A question not to be confused with an accusation.

    MEANWHILE

    The Entire List of American Deaths From Ebola

    1. Dr. Martin Salia, surgeon who contracted the virus in Sierra Leone
    2. ^^^ Just him ^^^

  53. [53] 
    Michale wrote:

    Gold standard baby! By your inability to prove otherwise, I take your concession...

    Whatever you have to think to make it thru your day.. :D

    Fact is, you already proved it for me.. :D

  54. [54] 
    Michale wrote:

    The Entire List of American Deaths From Ebola

    Which has nothing to do with anything, sweetie..

    Once again, you are proven wrong..

    12,269 deaths under Odumbo & Biden..

    Less than 200 deaths under President Trump..

    It's clear who the better leader is...

  55. [55] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Yawn.

  56. [56] 
    Kick wrote:

    Mike
    40

    Really??

    Yes, really.

    So, the LOWEST unemployment in history for minorities and the LOWEST unemployment in DECADES for everyone else.

    THAT is not because of President Trump..

    If you say so.

    But have a pandemic that YOU moronic Democrats have hyped up and fear-mongered as the end of the world.

    THAT raises Unemployment and, ALL OF THE SUDDEN, it's ALL on President Trump..

    Still not a Democrat, and no amount of your lying will change that fact. Also, ain't it just a damn shame when "it's ALL on President Trump" when the numbers are decent and the right-wingnuts prattle on and on about how great Trump is and thereby also claim ownership of the numbers on too numerous occasions to list... except when they set new records not seen since the Great Depression and then they commence to whining about how those numbers have nothing whatsoever to do with Trump.

    Trump owns these numbers.

    Your hatred and bigotry is only matched by your stoopidity and moronic-ness....

    Your bending over, sucking, and flailing is again duly noted. Trump owns the numbers, and he owns you.

  57. [57] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Less than 200 deaths under President Trump..

    1054 and counting...

  58. [58] 
    Michale wrote:

    Your bending over, sucking, and flailing is again duly noted. Trump owns the numbers, and he owns you.

    While not factually accurate, the FACT is I OWN you..

    Because you have ALWAYS been wrong.. About EVERYTHING to do with President Trump..

    You have NEVER been factually accurate in **ANY** prediction you have ever made..

    So, in actuality, President Trump ***OWNS*** you!! :D

    BBBBAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAA

    Love ya snookums.. :D

  59. [59] 
    Michale wrote:

    1054 and counting.

    And STILL 12 times lower than Odumbo's and Biden's incompetence produced...

    And NONE of ya'all said a word back then..

    I was the only one to take Odumbo to task for his incompetence back then...

    As usual...

  60. [60] 
    Kick wrote:

    Mike
    54

    Less than 200 deaths under President Trump..

    LIAR... 1000+ according to Johns Hopkins University, and the United States will no doubt sit atop the list of total number of confirmed cases by tomorrow.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

    How will y'all right-wingnuts blame the Democrats or the media for those numbers that aren't anywhere near the zero that Trump claimed they would be?

    It's clear who the better leader is...

    You spelled "liar" incorrectly, but those unemployment numbers definitely don't lie. How unfortunate for you and President Pinocchio to have spent years and years voluntarily tying yourselves to them over and over ad nauseam.

  61. [61] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Michale [59]

    I was the only one to take Odumbo to task for his incompetence back then...

    Bullshit. Prove it!

  62. [62] 
    Kick wrote:

    Mike
    58

    While you seem endlessly delighted by the robotic rote and repetitive standard operational cut-and-paste-like standard drivel with which you prattle on and on endlessly in predictable fashion, it's only fair to tell you that your extremely limited repertoire reveals your obvious dearth of accomplishment.

    So to recap: You seem blissfully unaware of your patently obvious incomprehension on permanent perpetual display and equally incapable of stopping yourself from your endless mundane mind-numbing monotonous self-mutilation. Heh.

  63. [63] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    To Bohemian Rhapsody:

    Obama, never killed a man
    but a virus that had spread
    did leave some people dead.

    But this one, it has just begun
    and Trump has got to deal with it today.

    So goodbye to the drama, now it's Trump's show
    got leave that all behind and face the truth.

    Drama...ooooh.

    Could we just give a try
    and then we can compare results tomorrow

    When it's done
    when it's done

    'cause what else really matters...

  64. [64] 
    Michale wrote:

    Bashi,

    I was the only one to take Odumbo to task for his incompetence back then...

    Bullshit. Prove it!

    You already did that.. Thanx :D

  65. [65] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Michale,

    Are you just going to repeat weasel words over and over rather than back up your shit or admit the truth?

    Sad.

  66. [66] 
    Michale wrote:

    Are you just going to repeat weasel words over and over rather than back up your shit or admit the truth?

    As usual, you lusers are obsessed with "truth"..

    I deal in FACTS...

    And the fact is you have already confirmed it.

    "You who criticized Obama on every possible thing real or imagined."
    -Bashi

    So, I thank you for providing the FACTS.. :D

    If you think that is not factual.

    PROVE it.. :D

    You can't because they are your own words.. :D

  67. [67] 
    MtnCaddy wrote:

    [37] [38] [49]

    Don Harris,

    CV-19 has unleashed the diabolically wicked comedian within you.

    This is sooo much more enjoyable than your usual schtick. Carry on, my wayward son!

  68. [68] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    I deal in FACTS...

    Ass-facts at best. Example: you misquote me above. There are another 18 words before that sentence ends. It is both disingenuous and sleazy that you left them out.

    Face it buddy, Obama did a fine job and your guy is floundering.

    1081 and counting...

  69. [69] 
    Michale wrote:

    Face it buddy, Obama did a fine job and your guy is floundering.

    Only a Trump/America hating bigot would think that 12,269 Americans dead is Odumbo doing a "fine job"...

  70. [70] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Sad.

  71. [71] 
    Michale wrote:

    Yes, it is... I liked you better when you didn't cheer on dead Americans...

  72. [72] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    Gallows humor is my specialty for obvious reasons. :D

  73. [73] 
    MyVoice wrote:

    [62] Kick

    I just came across this meme recently. Please use as you see fit:
    I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

  74. [74] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    Sorry Mtn Caddy. I think I'm tapped out.

    All I can offer is an old favorite religious song parody to describe the level of discussion lately.

    "Amazing space between your ears
    A space vast and empty
    There once was thought
    But now I found
    There's just stupidity"

  75. [75] 
    Michale wrote:

    And another Trump/America hating bigot speaks...

    As if we don't have enough of those retards...

  76. [76] 
    Michale wrote:

    That should read "RETREADS"...

    My bust... :D

    "Is this some kind of bust.."
    "Why... yes.. yes it's quite impressive.."
    -POLICE SQUAD

    :D

  77. [77] 
    Michale wrote:

    But, back to the subject at hand..

    "AAAARRRGGGGHHHHH!!!! Sixty Thousand Americans have stubbed their toe!!!! ARRRGHHHHHH!!!!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!"
    -Trump/America Haters

    "12,269 Americans died?? Obama & Biden are doing such a fine job!!"
    -Trump/America Haters

  78. [78] 
    Michale wrote:

    Stocks surge has Dow flirting with bear-market exit
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-march-26-2020

    Well, that was a quick bear market... I guess, since ya'all were so quick to BLAME President Trump, ya'all will be just as quick to give him credit..

    Right???

    BBBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Again, I have to ask.. Do ya'all EVER get tired of being wrong??

    Having President Trump's awesome leadership making ya'all the LAUGHING STOCK day in and day out??

    Don't ya'all get tired of it??? :D

  79. [79] 
    Kick wrote:

    BashiBazouk
    65

    Are you just going to repeat weasel words over and over rather than back up your shit or admit the truth?

    But Bashi, Mike is a lying "fucktard" <--- props to Russ for that one, and that lying "fucktard" routine of his is exactly how you know for certain that Mike's got nothing left in the tank except the usual dithering bullshit he amuses himself with.

    You win while Mike fabricates whilst simultaneously amusing himself via the self-mutilating fucktard routine... and then it's lather, rinse, repeat.

  80. [80] 
    Michale wrote:

    And yet, I have been here for like 16 years and ya'all lusers have ***ALWAYS*** been wrong about **EVERY** President Trump predictions.. :D

    BBBBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Ya'all are the laughing stocks of the Dumbocrat Party.. :D

  81. [81] 
    ListenWhenYouHear wrote:

    Kick [23]

    Thank you for once again showing how pathetic Michale’s attempts at dishonesty have become. Hopefully he is drinking his fish tank cleaner like his master has suggested to prevent him from getting the coronavirus! Florida is gonna be the next state to implode under the mass numbers of infected, so we will see how long he keeps up his worship of the orange Idiot of Death’s response to this illness.

    And don’t you love how he wants us to respond to his brilliant attempt to deflect from what is happening in the here and now by trying to rehash whether Trump’s a racist by saying that the US having a black Surgeon General somehow proves Trump cannot be racist! Based on that logic, no slave owner could have been racist!

    You stay healthy, my friend!

    -R

  82. [82] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Kick-

    Oh, I'm familiar with his ways. As soon as he is losing an argument, he turns to petty insults to try and drive you away then claims an empty victory when you go off to do life stuff you were planning on doing anyway. Quite pathetic, really.

    Michale-

    1,163 and counting...

  83. [83] 
    MyVoice wrote:

    We've just taken first place in the world with number of reported cases at 81,896. Good thing we don't have widespread testing or it might be even worse. The number of new cases today is currently 13,685, and deaths today is 147 at the moment, for a total of 1,174 attributed to COVID-19.

  84. [84] 
    Michale wrote:

    AND, the rate of increase is slowing..

    Doubling, as it is known, was at 1.3 days... It is now around 4.5 days...

    I know, I know..

    Ya'all wanted dead Americans by the tens of thousands..

    Too bad for ya'all....

  85. [85] 
    Michale wrote:

    MyVoice..

    Odumbo had 12,269 American deaths in his Swine Flu pandemic in 2009....

    Where were you then??

    Patting him on the back as to what a fine job he did killing Americans??

    Figures...

  86. [86] 
    Michale wrote:

    Bashi,

    As soon as he is losing an argument,

    And yet, YOU have lost EVERY President Trump argument you have ever made..

    And then you run away like a pussy... :D

    As you will this time... :D

  87. [87] 
    Michale wrote:

    Bashi,

    1,163 and counting...

    WoW... I can just hear the glee in your voice as you count up dead Americans..

    What a pathetic piece of shit you have become..

  88. [88] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    I see most of you are handling this pandemic very well.

    I only wish that there was another blog out there, somewhere that y'all loved far more than this one … if you know what I mean and I'm sure that you do.

  89. [89] 
    Kick wrote:

    Less than 200 deaths under President Trump.. ~ Lying Mike

    LIAR... 1000+ according to Johns Hopkins University, and the United States will no doubt sit atop the list of total number of confirmed cases by tomorrow.

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

    Well then, I stand corrected. A quick look at the JHU coronavirus statistics shows the United States has already taken a giant leap from third place all the way into the top of the list today.

    I readily admit the aforementioned error in judgment wherein I obviously underestimated the incompetence of Donald Trump.

  90. [90] 
    Kick wrote:

    MyVoice
    73

    Heh. :)

  91. [91] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Michale-

    See [82] Proving my point surprising completely...

    And yet, YOU have lost EVERY President Trump argument you have ever made..

    Have I? Which one?

    1,182 and counting...

  92. [92] 
    Kick wrote:

    Russ
    81

    Thank you for once again showing how pathetic Michale’s attempts at dishonesty have become.

    Like shooting fish in a barrel. <--- idiom not to be taken literally

    Hopefully he is drinking his fish tank cleaner like his master has suggested to prevent him from getting the coronavirus!

    I know, right!? And just in case anyone anywhere was still under the misguided/mistaken impression that the misinformation disseminated by Donald Trump, the useful idiots, MAGA rubes, and Fox News right-wingnut propaganda was harmless:

    Drug cleared by Trump, FDA for coronavirus testing also found in fish tanks -- and prices online are soaring

    President Trump announced in a press conference Thursday that chloroquine phosphate -- a substance found in drugs used to treat malaria and severe arthritis -- was cleared by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to test as a treatment for the coronavirus.

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/trump-fda-coronavirus-drug-testing-fish-tanks-ebay-price-human-consumption

    Florida is gonna be the next state to implode under the mass numbers of infected, so we will see how long he keeps up his worship of the orange Idiot of Death’s response to this illness.

    Mar-a-Lago is a ground zero petri dish in Florida because Trump shook hands with an infected person there... although falsely claiming he did not know the man: the President of Brazil.

    And don’t you love how he wants us to respond to his brilliant attempt to deflect from what is happening in the here and now by trying to rehash whether Trump’s a racist by saying that the US having a black Surgeon General somehow proves Trump cannot be racist! Based on that logic, no slave owner could have been racist!

    I know, right!? Reminds me of a Jeff Foxworthy cringeworthy comedy routine: If it's your regular business practice to refuse to lease an apartment to the minority you'd allow to clean it, you just might be a racist.

    You stay healthy, my friend!

    We think we may have already gotten it, but we were not allowed to test for it. Yesterday at long last finally brought official confirmation of exposure to someone who tested positive for COVID-19, and now I can take the test... except I'm no longer ill. I am kick the corona viruses ass already... I think.

    Y'all stay healthy too because we loves you both! :)

  93. [93] 
    Michale wrote:

    The Scientist Whose Doomsday Pandemic Model Predicted Armageddon Just Walked Back The Apocalyptic Predictions
    https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/the-scientist-whose-doomsday-pandemic-model-predicted-armageddon-just-walked-back-the-apocalyptic-predictions/

    Scientists admits it's all fear-mongering hysteria an are walking back their sensational claims..

    Who could have guessed it!!??

    Oh Wait...

  94. [94] 
    Michale wrote:

    Liz,

    I only wish that there was another blog out there, somewhere that y'all loved far more than this one … if you know what I mean and I'm sure that you do.

    Yea, then they could leave this one and things could return to the fun and friendly place it used to be..

    Before Kick and Russ and all the other Trump/American haters..

  95. [95] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Well, Michale, you have a lot of power to bring this place back to the friendly place it used to be all on your own.

    But, for some reason unknown to me, you refuse to join me in that effort unless others follow suit.

  96. [96] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Hey, are you listening to Bill Gates on CNN tonight?

  97. [97] 
    Kick wrote:

    BashiBazouk
    82

    Oh, I'm familiar with his ways.

    Heh... I knew that you were. I just wanted to say "fucktard" multiple times. :)

  98. [98] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Perfect.

  99. [99] 
    Kick wrote:

    Elizabeth Miller
    88

    I only wish that there was another blog out there, somewhere that y'all loved far more than this one … if you know what I mean and I'm sure that you do.

    I only wish you knew how churlishly entitled you sound when you type out this type of condescending patronizing drivel on a blog that isn't your own.

  100. [100] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    Yes, Kick, I can actually imagine how it must sound ...

  101. [101] 
    Elizabeth Miller wrote:

    New column up!

  102. [102] 
    Kick wrote:

    Elizabeth Miller
    98

    Perfect.

    Tune in tomorrow when I make Liz whine on cue... part two.

    Hey, Liz. You appear to be in desperate need of a patronizing dose of Elizabeth Miller's words that apply equally to Elizabeth Miller if only she had a clue that they do, and I shall be happy to provide those for you, by way of Elizabeth Miller, of course:

    Why can't people just ignore what they don't want to read here by people they don't like without always making a big issue out of it.

    If you (generic you) can't do that, then you are part of the problem (general disrespect) that plagues this site.
    ~ Elizabeth Miller

    http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/09/14/ftp500/#comment-127106

    You're welcome, Liz. :)

  103. [103] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Michale- [93]

    That story is not saying what you want it to say...

    Here is a less blatantly biased article.

    Basically the original report had the doomsday predictions you mention if we carried on with life and did nothing. It also ran models of various mitigation strategies. England (and just about everyone else) has gone with much of the more restrictive recommendations and guess what? It may have worked. That is what this article details and your article tries to subvert for political purposes.

    Neil Ferguson did not walk back anything nor did he need to.

    1,201 and counting...

  104. [104] 
    BashiBazouk wrote:

    Here [pdf] is the actual Imperial College study. See tables 4 & 5 for the total death predictions if strong mitigation steps are taken.

  105. [105] 
    Kick wrote:

    Russ

    Yea, then they could leave this one and things could return to the fun and friendly place it used to be..

    Before Kick and Russ and all the other Trump/American haters..

    Listen to him go, Russ; I do enjoy the incessant crying... that positive proof that Mike voluntarily provides to everyone reading the comments section wherein Mike concedes he is the loser and everyone else is .............................drumroll...............................

    WINNING!

    Hey, Russ, you go over there and grab the right earlobe, and I'll take hold of the left one here. If we pull real hard straight downward, maybe we could dislodge Mike's head from deep inside the folds of Trump's bigly fat ass. If Mike insists on giving us rent free lodging in his empty head, the very least we could do is to try to help him out. :)

  106. [106] 
    Kick wrote:

    BashiBazouk
    104

    Here [pdf] is the actual Imperial College study. See tables 4 & 5 for the total death predictions if strong mitigation steps are taken.

    Science and math, Bashi!? Are you serious. You're going to overheat the single brain cell and force Russ and me to have to put out the resultant fire. Oh, wait... there's no oxygen in here. Never mind. :)

  107. [107] 
    John M wrote:

    [32] Michale wrote:

    "And once again, ya'all ignore the question.

    How can President Trump be a racist if he has a black American as Surgeon General???

    Ya'all just LOVE to ignore the questions you simply cannot answer... :D"

    I suggest YOU look up the historical meaning and use of the terms "tokenism" and "Uncle Tom."

    Racist is as racist does.

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