ChrisWeigant.com

All In The Family

[ Posted Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 18:16 PST ]

Jared Kushner's security clearance has been downgraded, the Washington Post reported today, from the highest level of access to the nation's secrets to the second-highest. This may not sound like much, but it will severely limit the information legally available to him -- he should no longer be able to read the president's daily briefing document put together by the national security apparatus, for example. This is important because it was recently disclosed that Kushner does actively read these daily briefings (or, at least, did so before last week). What it will mean in the larger sense for both Kushner and the rest of the Trump White House going forward is unclear, at this point.

Two Fridays ago, in the aftermath of the "wife-beaters in the White House" scandal, John Kelly sent out a memo stating that the highest security clearances which had been granted on a temporary basis (but had also been pending for the last eight months or more, to avoid new hires being unfairly swept up in the reclassification) would be revoked in one week's time. Last Friday, there was no official news out of the White House on Kushner's status, but President Trump was quoted essentially washing his hands of the issue. Trump could have overruled everybody and just granted Kushner his security clearance by fiat, but had apparently been convinced by advisors that it would harm him politically to do so. So Trump announced the decision was completely up to Kelly. And Kelly was apparently true to his word, and last week downgraded the highest security clearances for everyone covered by his memo. This included Jared Kushner.

Kelly, once again, is casting himself as the adult in the room pushing back against the worst of the Trump White House nepotism. But just revoking Kushner's top-level security clearance might not be enough to sweep the subject under the rug. Because Trump's family has more problems than just Kelly cracking the whip on Jared Kushner.

At the same time the story broke about Kushner's security clearance downgrade, a companion story also appeared, which revealed that at least four foreign governments (China, Mexico, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel) have already considered in some fashion how to leverage Kushner's business dealings worldwide in order to gain favor (or more) from the Trump administration. That's a pretty big bombshell, but also feels like only the beginning of this particular story. If Congress were in the hands of Democrats, an investigation would likely begin into whether any of these efforts bore fruit or not, but since Republicans control both chambers they will likely revert to their default Sergeant Schultz head-in-the-sand position of: "We see nothing! Nothing!" Oh, well -- maybe next year.

The highest profile job Kushner held in the West Wing was supposed to be brokering a Middle East peace deal. The White House had leaked last week that it would soon be presenting his plan, although it seemed to be one that neither Israel nor the Palestinians had bought into. The chances for this plan succeeding were already vanishingly small, especially since Trump announced he was moving the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Now, Kushner won't have access to the highest-level intelligence on any country in the Middle East, and the U.A.E. and Israel have already tried to buy him off in one fashion or another. That, to be blunt, is not a strategy for success.

Two other news items from the past week also fed into the nepotism theme, neither of which looked particularly good. The first was an interview conducted with Ivanka, after she had been sent to South Korea to be America's emissary to the closing ceremony of the Winter Olympics. When asked about payouts to a porn actress and a Playboy bunny and what her father's role was in all of it, she declined to answer -- because she was Trump's daughter. The White House had tried to build her role up as a serious diplomat on the world stage, but she came off sounding like she'd much rather fit the role of "Princess Ivanka," horrified that anyone would question her about her father. You could easily picture her giving the response: "We are not amused," in other words.

Not to be left out, there's a possible diplomatic nightmare brewing down in Panama which involves Donald Trump Junior and Eric Trump, who are now in charge of the Trump family business. The story is downright bizarre, but although so far it hasn't gotten completely out of hand, it does raise larger questions about Trump, Inc.'s dealings with foreign properties versus official U.S. foreign policy.

Trump's name is on a building in Panama City, which has both residential housing and hotel accommodations. The Trump organization is essentially leasing his name to the building, and is supposed to be in charge of management. This contract runs until 2031, or it is supposed to, at any rate. One individual investor, however, bought up over half the units in the building and is fighting to remove Trump's name from the building and boot the Trump organization out entirely. A hostile takeover, in other words. But in this case, the corporate raiding has gone from courtroom jousting to actual physical confrontations. The investor trying to oust Trump showed up at the building with his own security forces and has been trying to evict the Trump employees. This has included shutting off the power to the building, some pushing and shoving, and offices being barricaded with furniture. So far, nobody has been seriously hurt, but things could be escalating as the most recent chapter in this drama was that one of the Trump guards was led away in handcuffs by the Panamanian police.

So far, the U.S. embassy in Panama has been silent on the whole affair. If the Panamanian police and court system side with the investor, however, and aid him in evicting Trump's people, then things could get very sticky indeed. What is the State Department supposed to do? How would Trump himself react? The clear conflict of interest is obvious, after all. What would happen if Trump ordered the State Department to punish Panama in some fashion? Or even if he decides to lash out in a tweet about it some early morning?

Anti-nepotism laws are there for a reason, and if all these recent stories prove anything, it's that they probably need to be strengthened. Many of these laws go back to a reaction to President John F. Kennedy installing his brother as his attorney general, but as the Trump family has proved, the laws which do now exist for the White House are obviously not strong enough. Whether it's Donald Trump Junior peddling real estate in India while giving political speeches, or Ivanka not deigning to answer a reporter's questions "because he's my father," or dealing with a bizarre business dustup in Panama, perhaps family members shouldn't be involved with the government in any way, shape, or form.

Imagine just for a tiny moment what Republicans would be saying if it had been Chelsea Clinton, rather than Jared Kushner, who was forced into a security clearance downgrade because questions still remained about whether she could be blackmailed or not. John Kelly apparently just took a big step towards easing the Trump children away from the power they have been given by Daddy Trump, but it really shouldn't require "an adult in the room" to make this happen, and it certainly shouldn't have taken over a year to make such a decision. There's a reason why nepotism is seen as a bad thing, in other words, and it has been on full display over the past week.

-- Chris Weigant

 

Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant

 

80 Comments on “All In The Family”

  1. [1] 
    Paula wrote:

    Until Blotus much of our government ran on the "honor system". Now that we have the most dishonorable POTUS ever, surrounded by a bunch criminal grifters and enabled by complicit GOP traitors, it's clear there have to be "laws" rather than "norms". It's also clear Repubs need to be thrown out of power for a century because they've shown they'll blow off existing laws while absolutely crapping all over norms.

  2. [2] 
    Paula wrote:

    And Dems flip a seat in New Hampshire AND another in Connecticut!

  3. [3] 
    ListenWhenYouHear wrote:

    Jared Kushner's security clearance has been downgraded, the Washington Post reported today, from the highest level of access to the nation's secrets to the second-highest. This may not sound like much...

    Because it isn’t nearly downgraded as far as it warrants! Kushner lied about his Russian contacts and his financial history multiple times during the screening process. This should have immediately disqualified him AND resulted in criminal charges being filed against him! That’s a clear case of orange-privilege! Or more importantly, nepotism.

    One of the security questions is “Do you associate with any known felons or persons involved in criminal activities?” His father is a felon....and his step-father is most likely guilty of treason! Russian diplomats were overheard by intelligence agencies (listening in on their phone conversations) discussing how Kushner wanted a secure, direct line to Putin after Trump won the election!

    The man has massive debts! Kushner should not qualify for the lowest security clearance available — and the fact that they claim that he has now been dropped down to the second highest level should be viewed as another crime against our country.

  4. [4] 
    Paula wrote:

    [3] Listen:
    The man has massive debts! Kushner should not qualify for the lowest security clearance available — and the fact that they claim that he has now been dropped down to the second highest level should be viewed as another crime against our country.

    Yep.

  5. [5] 
    TheStig wrote:

    Trump has effectively demoted Jared to WH intern, or maybe office boy. Interns are traditionally unpaid, so I'd say intern. An intern with a billion dollars worth of real estate debt to sevice. People get thrown into the East River for less. A lot less.

    Trump blinked. The guy who would like to think he'd run unarmed into a school building to face an active shooter has blinked. All he had to do is open his
    KFC hole and say "give Jared his clearence." The Walter Mitty comparisons are already making the media rounds.

    I wonder what Jared is thinking about "Dad" with regard to impending FBI interviews, Federal pardon expectations and such.

  6. [6] 
    goode trickle wrote:

    When it comes to the Panama thing, I would suspect he will only be able to tweet.

    Panama is important to our Military and Drug interdiction operations, not to mention commerce, for any of the adults to allow trump to do anything concrete.

    If we were to lose Panama as active participants in the drug interdiction activities it would be devastating to the operations and then you wanna talk about drugs pouring in....

    I do not see that as being allowed to happen.

  7. [7] 
    TheStig wrote:

    CW-

    The New York Times, WAPO and other sources report Kushner's security level has been downgraded to Secret, not Top Secret. That is the lowest level of security.
    He has acess to the White House, but that is about it. He no longer has acess to the information network required to do the diplomatic and other tasks he was assigned. Unless Trump changes his mind and personally waives normal vetting procedures. I personally think signals have been sent by various branches of govt. that going rogue would be a very bad idea.

  8. [8] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    Paula [2] -

    Got a link? :-) Sounds like more good news!

    TheStig [7] -

    Really? When I wrote this, only the earliest reports were out, and the WashPost said he had been downgraded from Top Secret/Compartmentalized Information (the highest) to just Top Secret. If he's been knocked all the way down to Secret, that is much more major, that's for sure. I think there's one lower than that (Government Eyes Only? Something like that...), but if Jared can't even access Top Secret, then that's the end of all of his serious duties, that's for sure.

    Thanks for the heads-up.

    -CW

  9. [9] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    italyrusty -

    First off, welcome to the site!

    This is to apologize to you for not approving your comment from last Friday. It can be found at:

    http://www.chrisweigant.com/2018/02/23/ftp473/#comment-116562

    Your first comment was held for moderation, but from now on you should be able to see your comments appear instantly. Just don't post more than one link per comment, as multilink comments are held automatically for moderation, which can take awhile (again, sorry 'bout that).

    As for your comment...

    I didn't mention Bernie because I hadn't seen the article you linked to:

    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/21/bernie-sanders-trump-russia-interference-420528

    but you're right, it's awfully weaselly behavior. So it was an oversight, but not an intentional one. Thanks for bringing it to my attention, and I... um, no, if it's Friday it should be: "WE hereby retroactively award a (Dis-)Honorable Mention to Bernie Sanders, who really needs to work on a better response."

    How's that?

    :-)

    -CW

  10. [10] 
    goode trickle wrote:

    Secret is mid level.... and is going to hamper him in the extreme as he no longer has that pot level access to the information required for the job.

    Lowest is Classified.

    For those of you interested in the cold hard facts of clearance level determinations here are the rules of adjudication.

    https://www.state.gov/m/ds/clearances/276289.htm

  11. [11] 
    Chris Weigant wrote:

    goode trickle [10] -

    Pot level access?

    Heh.

    Just trying to picture that one. Weed's legal in DC, isn't it?

    :-)

    -CW

  12. [12] 
    neilm wrote:

    OK, I've only got this far at this point!

    Sergeant Schultz head-in-the-sand position of: "We see nothing! Nothing!"

    I can't believe I'm getting Hogan's Heroes references.

    This is why this blog is the one I read first every day!

    Thanks CW. Respect man.

  13. [13] 
    neilm wrote:

    That, to be blunt, is not a strategy for success.

    Dude you are on a roll!

  14. [14] 
    neilm wrote:

    Good one CW. Thanks.

  15. [15] 
    Michale wrote:

    Jared Kushner's security clearance has been downgraded, the Washington Post reported today, from the highest level of access to the nation's secrets to the second-highest.

    Yunno, when you start off with a bullshit claim, the whole commentary is tainted.. :D

  16. [16] 
    Michale wrote:

    Stig,

    That is the lowest level of security.

    Fer christ's sake, people!! Get yer frakin' FACTS straight..

    SECRET is not the lowest level of 'security".. And it's NOT 'security' but rather intelligence classification.....

    There are two levels below SECRET...

    There is CLASSIFIED and there is CONFIDENTIAL...

    And all President Trump has to do is issue an order to restore Kushner's clearance level and everything is fine and dandy..

    Talk about making mountains out of mole hills.. :^/

    Another 'cofveve' hysterical incident.. :^/

  17. [17] 
    Michale wrote:

    And Dems flip a seat in New Hampshire AND another in Connecticut!

    Facts to support???

    {{{chhirrrrpppp}}} {{{cchhhiiirrrrrppppp}}}

    Yea.. That's what I thought.. :^/

  18. [18] 
    Michale wrote:

    Talk about making mountains out of mole hills.. :^/

    This reminds me of the time ya'all went hysterical bat-shit crazy when the stock markets fluctuated and predicted all sorts of gloom and doom for President Trump..

    That lasted about 3 days until the next shiny thing grabbed ya'all's attention..

    :D Like I said, ya'all REALLY need to pace yerselves...

    Ya'all will vapor-lock long before Jan 2025 rolls around...

  19. [19] 
    Mopshell wrote:

    [8] and [17] Facts to support as requested.

    Dems flip seat in new Hampshire:

    http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/375880-dem-wins-new-hampshire-seat-in-trump-district

    Scroll down and the next story includes the seat flipped in Connecticut.

  20. [20] 
    Michale wrote:

    [8] and [17] Facts to support as requested.

    Dems flip seat in new Hampshire:

    Thanx, MS... Much appreciated..

    So, the Dems have gotten back 39 seats..

    Only 961 more seats to go! :D

    It's funny to see Paula go all weak-kneed because the Dems gained back a couple state seats...

    But when her Dumbocrats lost OVER ONE THOUSAND SEATS... Well, THAT was no big deal.. :D

    "I just find that funny.. But ya'all ain't laughin'.."
    -Will Smith, MEN IN BLACK

    :D

  21. [21] 
    Kick wrote:

    Great article, CW... what with those pesky federal anti-nepotism and emoluments laws, one would think the founders knew a little bit about mad kings and wanted a way to guarantee the preservation of the republic and to prevent tyranny. Go figure.

    So, I guess it's official now: The "McMaster/Kelly" versus Jarvanka internal power struggle within the White House has gone public in a really big way... so "generals" please tread ever lightly... lest ye be branded the "deep state" and tossed out on thine proverbial ears. :)

    The accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive, and judiciary, in the same hands, whether of one or a few, or many, and whether hereditary, self-appointed or elective, may justly be pronounced the very definition of tyranny.
    ~ Publius, Federalist No. 47
    a.k.a. James Madison, The Federalist Papers

  22. [22] 
    Kick wrote:

    Paula
    1

    Well said. :)

  23. [23] 
    Kick wrote:

    Paula
    2

    And Dems flip a seat in New Hampshire AND another in Connecticut!

    Plus 2 makes 39, and although the race in Kentucky did not flip, there was a +28 turnaround. Not too shabby.

  24. [24] 
    Kick wrote:

    Russ
    3

    Kushner should not qualify for the lowest security clearance available — and the fact that they claim that he has now been dropped down to the second highest level should be viewed as another crime against our country.

    Tyranny! :)

  25. [25] 
    Kick wrote:

    Russ
    3

    Kushner should not qualify for the lowest security clearance available — and the fact that they claim that he has now been dropped down to the second highest level should be viewed as another crime against our country.

    Tyranny! :)

  26. [26] 
    Michale wrote:

    Plus 2 makes 39,

    And all ya have to do is get another 961 flips and you'll be back to where your Party was Pre-Odumbo..

    BBWWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    :D

  27. [27] 
    Kick wrote:

    TS
    5

    Trump has effectively demoted Jared to WH intern, or maybe office boy.

    Just another "coffee boy" like Flynn, Gates, and Papadopolous. ;)

    Trump blinked. The guy who would like to think he'd run unarmed into a school building to face an active shooter has blinked.

    The long-running White House McMaster/Kelly versus Jarvanka reality TV show feud is officially public.

    Who stays, who goes?
    Good God, who knows? ;)

    I wonder what Jared is thinking about "Dad" with regard to impending FBI interviews, Federal pardon expectations and such.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeLC-WwW5zU

    Oh, the wheels on the bus go
    round and round,
    round and round,
    round and round

    Oh, the wheels on the bus go
    round and round all through the town. :)

  28. [28] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    Even though you responded to my comments in yesterday's comments, you once again did not address the part of the comments about the Democratic Party's reliance on Big Money.

    Why do you keep going all Sgt. Schultz on this?

    If you read the part of my comment(s) that you respond to then the odds are you read the rest of it.

    Man up and address the issue.

    As I said previously- even if there is a Big Blue Wave in 2018, it won't do much, if any, good if the wave is polluted with Big Money.

    Don't forget that Sgt. Schultz was a traitor for seeing nothing. The difference is that he was a traitor to the bad guys instead of working for them.

  29. [29] 
    Kick wrote:

    Michale
    16

    Fer christ's sake, people!! Get yer frakin' FACTS straight..

    There are two levels below SECRET...

    Wrong again, Coptard, there's only one level below "Secret."

    There is CLASSIFIED and there is CONFIDENTIAL...

    Wrong. "Classified" is not a level; they're all "classified."

    If you're going to keep correcting people on grammar and issues of law, etc., at least get your facts straight rather than posting your ridiculous prolific misinformation.

    Sec. 1.2. Classification Levels.
    (a) Information may be classified at one of the following three levels:
    (1) ‘‘Top Secret’’ shall be applied to information, the unauthorized disclosure of which reasonably could be expected to cause exceptionally grave damage to the national security that the original classification authority is able to identify or describe.
    (2) ‘‘Secret’’ shall be applied to information, the unauthorized disclosure of which reasonably could be expected to cause serious damage to the national security that the original classification authority is able to identify or describe.
    (3) ‘‘Confidential’’ shall be applied to information, the unauthorized disclosure of which reasonably could be expected to cause damage to the national security that the original classification authority is able to identify or describe.
    (b) Except as otherwise provided by statute, no other terms shall be used to identify United States classified information.
    (c) If there is significant doubt about the appropriate level of classification, it shall be classified at the lower level.

    https://tinyurl.com/ybwn2yuk

    You keep asking everyone else for "facts to support" while gleefully posting your misinformation with zero "facts to support" because there isn't any because it's bullshit. :)

  30. [30] 
    Michale wrote:

    Wrong again, Coptard, there's only one level below "Secret."

    Well, will wonders never cease.. The fat cow that usually reeks of bovine feces was actually right about something..

    I stand corrected...

  31. [31] 
    Michale wrote:

    For the record, welfare-girl, Stig was STILL wrong when he said that SECRET is the lowest level of classification...

    So, I was NOT totally wrong...

    But you STILL totally smell...

  32. [32] 
    John M wrote:

    Several recent surveys also suggest Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot. A CNN survey conducted last week shows Democrats leading by a 54 percent to 38 percent margin — a margin wider even than in 2008, when Democrats picked up almost two dozen seats in Congress.

    A Marist poll conducted over the same period found Democrats leading 46 percent to 39 percent.

    Want to tell me again how Republicans have pulled even with Democrats in a generic us vs them poll??? This just appeared yesterday.

  33. [33] 
    Michale wrote:

    Several recent surveys also suggest Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot. A CNN survey conducted last week shows Democrats leading by a 54 percent to 38 percent margin — a margin wider even than in 2008, when Democrats picked up almost two dozen seats in Congress.

    Can you cite those polls???

    Want to tell me again how Republicans have pulled even with Democrats in a generic us vs them poll??? This just appeared yesterday.

    I'll be happy to..

    But ONLY if you promise to acknowledge those polls when I do..

    I'll accept your word on this promise. It's good enough for me.. :D

  34. [34] 
    Michale wrote:

    Do I have your word, John??? :D

  35. [35] 
    Kick wrote:

    Michale
    30

    Well, will wonders never cease.. The fat cow that usually reeks of bovine feces was actually right about something..

    Well, I do often say that "I could rub your nose in shit and you'd insist it didn't stink," but I never suggested you take it upon yourself to rub your own nose in it. So how is the "Orange Sphincter"?

    https://youtu.be/cD1e0BNNifk?t=2m39s

    :)

  36. [36] 
    Michale wrote:

    Well, I do often say that "I could rub your nose in shit and you'd insist it didn't stink," but I never suggested you take it upon yourself to rub your own nose in it.

    Why would I want to rub my nose in your fat ass???

    And *WHY* would you ask me to!???

  37. [37] 
    Michale wrote:

    Now, hush, welfare-girl...

    Adults are talking...

  38. [38] 
    Michale wrote:

    Do I have your word, John??? :D

    Ahhhh what the hell.....

    Poll: GOP gains on generic ballot, Trump approval ticks upward

    Republicans have erased the Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot in a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll that, for the first time since April, also shows President Donald Trump’s approval rating equaling the percentage of voters who disapprove of his job performance.

    Fully 39 percent of registered voters say they would support the GOP candidate for Congress in their district, while 38 percent would back the Democratic candidate. Nearly a quarter of voters, 23 percent, are undecided.

    “Not only have Republicans increased support on the generic congressional ballot, they are now trusted more to handle the most important issue when voters head to the polls: the economy,” said Kyle Dropp, Morning Consult’s co-founder and chief research officer. “In mid-December, 39 percent of voters said they trusted Democrats more to handle the economy, compared to 38 percent who said Republicans. Today, 43 percent say Republicans and 32 percent say Democrats."
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/14/trump-polling-democrats-republicans-407315

    This is especially telling because, as little as a few months ago, Democrats enjoyed a very large lead in the generic match-up...

    But the Democrats have seen that lead vanish over their mis-handling of the very popular GOP Tax cut and other various issues..

    What this means for the mid-terms is still not certain..

    But this new GOP surge coupled with the Democrats support of a de-facto GUN BAN.....

    Well, Democrats might as well not even show up for the mid-terms..

    They gonna get clobbered!!!

  39. [39] 
    TheStig wrote:

    Hope Hick's "white lies" statement strikes me as a "tell" indicating she is worried about her role in crafting Trump's Air Force One memo about the Trump Tower Meeting with the Russians. Fear of obstruction of justice charges from Mueller Inc. could make her a significant flipper - faster than lightning! Maybe Trump shouldn't have run heedlessly into that firefight with no more armor than a white lie.

    The appearance of fundamental incompetency of Trump and his retainers is constantly being reinforced with each fresh news cycle.

  40. [40] 
    Michale wrote:

    Hope Hick's "white lies" statement

    Which statement was that???

  41. [41] 
    neilm wrote:

    When will Republicans in the 90% realize that they are always lied to by the Republican Party when tax cuts are enacted?

    I mean, it isn't like they were not put on notice - "W"'s 2005 tax cuts ended up reducing employment.

    Well, to all Republicans not in the top 5-10% in wealth, the already wealthy say thanks for the extra dividends and buy-back money. Oh, and you don't get to complain when your social security checks get frozen or your medicare stops covering as much as it used to. Money doesn't grow on trees you know and you voted for the rich people's party.

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/02/corporations-stop-pretending-to-help-workers-go-back-to-enriching-themselves-trump-tax-plan

  42. [42] 
    neilm wrote:

    "Companies typically decide to make long-term investments in things like new workers and factories based on whether they will make the company more profitable — not merely because the companies are sitting on a pile of money that they otherwise would have paid in taxes."

    How many times do we have to tell Republicans this before they realize that tax cuts for Corporations are really for goosing the stock market?

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/26/business/tax-cuts-share-buybacks-corporate.html

  43. [43] 
    C. R. Stucki wrote:

    As a disinterested observer, I'm endless asounded that Weigantians spend so much time observing and obsessing over political polls, given the history of political pollings' prognostication record.

  44. [44] 
    neilm wrote:

    In 2017 for the first time since the great recession the well-being index has dropped - and in 21 states! In no state (repeat, no state) in 2017 did the index improve.

    http://news.gallup.com/poll/226517/record-states-decline-2017.aspx

  45. [45] 
    Michale wrote:

    As a disinterested observer, I'm endless asounded that Weigantians spend so much time observing and obsessing over political polls, given the history of political pollings' prognostication record.

    "I know, right!!??"
    -Felix, WRECK IT RALPH

    But, psychologically, it's easy to explain..

    They are MAJORLY butt-hurt by the 2016 elections..

    They have ALWAYS been wrong about President Trump where FACTS are concerned..

    So, they latch onto ANY delusion that allows them to save SOME semblance of face and get thru their President Trump-filled day...

    Polls that say what they want to hear serves that need..

  46. [46] 
    neilm wrote:

    As a disinterested observer

    So disinterested that you have to share your thoughts?

    given the history of political pollings' prognostication record

    Nate Silver predicted all 50 senate wins in 2012 and 49 out of 50 in 2008. He also gave the clown in the White House a 1/3 chance of winning in 2016 when everybody else was under 10%, and most under 5%.

    Here is is round up of the polling accuracy in 2016:

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/

  47. [47] 
    neilm wrote:

    Polls that say what they want to hear serves that need..

    Michale - you are the person who gloats whenever you can cherry pick a poll that supports your idols. You are the poster child around here for latching on to delusions that feed your needs.

  48. [48] 
    Michale wrote:

    Nate Silver predicted all 50 senate wins in 2012 and 49 out of 50 in 2008. He also gave the clown in the White House a 1/3 chance of winning in 2016 when everybody else was under 10%, and most under 5%.

    So Silver was less WAY WAY WAY wrong than everyone else..

    He was still WAY WAY wrong, Neil..

    And THAT is who you are backing now???

    ONLY because he says what you want to hear?? :D

    Michale - you are the person who gloats whenever you can cherry pick a poll that supports your idols. You are the poster child around here for latching on to delusions that feed your needs.

    Says the guy who ONLY listens to polls that say what he wants to here..

    I denigrate ALL polls.. You only denigrate the polls that say what you don't like..

    It's really THAT simple.. :D

  49. [49] 
    C. R. Stucki wrote:

    neilm

    Where did you detect the slightest interest on my part in political polls, fromn my post?

    I expressed a minor interest in what and why my fellow Weigantians have such an interest in polls, but not a word about any interest on my part in the polls themselves.

    Have you appointed yourself nit-picker-in-chief, or do I not get to comment on Weigantians, or what?

  50. [50] 
    Don Harris wrote:

    neilm-
    I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for the Republicans in the 90% to figure out that they have been lied to any more than it would be wise to hold your breath waiting for the Democrats in the 90% to figure out that the Big Money Democrats have lied to them.

    But when anyone buying into either side of the show finally sees the light, One Demand is ready and waiting.

  51. [51] 
    neilm wrote:

    He was still WAY WAY wrong, Neil.

    The polls were more accurate in 2016 than they were in 2012. They were only 1-2% points out in 2016. How is that "WAY WAY" wrong?

  52. [52] 
    neilm wrote:

    Where did you detect the slightest interest on my part in political polls, fromn my post?

    What are you talking about? Believe it or not, when I post I'm posting to the entire group, not just you.

  53. [53] 
    Michale wrote:

    The polls were more accurate in 2016 than they were in 2012. They were only 1-2% points out in 2016. How is that "WAY WAY" wrong?

    Donald Trump won when Silver said there was a 75% chance that WOULDN'T happen.....

    DUH......

    What are you talking about? Believe it or not, when I post I'm posting to the entire group, not just you.


    CRS: As a disinterested observer

    NEIL: So disinterested that you have to share your thoughts?

    Despite ALL the facts to the contrary :D

  54. [54] 
    neilm wrote:

    Donald Trump won when Silver said there was a 75% chance that WOULDN'T happen.....

    Silver said there was about a 1/3 chance based on the margin of error in the polls.

    I'll tell you what, how many times would you walk blindfolded across a freeway if there was a 1/3 chance you'd get hit by a truck?

  55. [55] 
    Michale wrote:

    Silver said there was about a 1/3 chance based on the margin of error in the polls.

    You can split semantical hairs all you want..

    But the simple fact is, ALL of the 2016 Presidential Election polls royally scrooo'ed the pooch..

    To deny this is to deny reality...

  56. [56] 
    Michale wrote:

    Which leads into the current discussion..

    If ALL the polls were so utterly and completely wrong in the 2016 Elections...

    WHY would ya'all put faith in ANY of the polls now??

    Because.....

    .......Psychologically, it's easy to explain..

    They were MAJORLY butt-hurt by the 2016 elections..

    They have ALWAYS been wrong about President Trump where FACTS are concerned..

    So, they latch onto ANY delusion that allows them to save SOME semblance of face and get thru their President Trump-filled day...

    Polls that say what they want to hear services that need..

    "Simple logic"
    -Admiral James T Kirk, STAR TREK IV-The Voyage Home

    :D

  57. [57] 
    neilm wrote:

    The polls were within their margin of error, Michale. If you don't understand statistics that is fine, but dumping on polls because they don't say what you want (except Rasmussen, which, for some strange reason you like and post about) is your game, not anybody else's.

  58. [58] 
    Michale wrote:

    The polls were within their margin of error, Michale. If you don't understand statistics that is fine, but dumping on polls because they don't say what you want (except Rasmussen, which, for some strange reason you like and post about) is your game, not anybody else's.

    And, once again, you ignore the argument, set up a strawman argument and demolish THAT not-argument perfectly..

    ALL the polls were wrong in 2016...

    FACT

    YOU put your faith in polls in the here and now, but ONLY the polls that say what you want to hear...

    FACT

    Now, WHY you do this... which is what CRS actually asked.... is conjecture...

    But it's a pretty good guess given the FACTS...

    Now, is there another straw man you want to set up and impressively knock down???

  59. [59] 
    Michale wrote:

    The polls were within their margin of error, Michale.

    Yea.. One poll had Hillary winning at 98%....

    If you allow for a 100% margin of error than yea..

    The polls were within the margin of error... :^/

  60. [60] 
    Paula wrote:

    And in other news: https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/02/trumps-feeble-hurricane-response-probably-cost-nearly-a-thousand-lives-in-puerto-rico/

    The news here is not so much that immediate hurricane fatalities were high—almost certainly over 500, which we’ve long suspected—but that they kept going long after Hurricane Maria left. In September, the death toll was probably around 500. But a month later, another 500 people died and a month after that another 200. These are the number of deaths above normal, and it’s evidence of just how feeble the federal government’s response was.

    It’s one thing to lose a lot of lives directly to a natural disaster, but it’s quite another to lose that many again due to lack of food, water, and medicine. Hurricane Harvey, for example, killed about 60 people in the Houston area and then another 26 due to “unsafe or unhealthy conditions” related to the loss or disruption of services such as utilities, transportation and medical care. Nobody was still dying a month later.

    Courtesy of an understaffed government being run by idiots and criminals. Government matters. Competence matters. Decency matters.

  61. [61] 
    neilm wrote:

    Yea.. One poll had Hillary winning at 98%....

    That wasn't a poll. You do know the difference between a poll and a prediction, right?

  62. [62] 
    Paula wrote:

    Best tweet of the day:

    Adamant_Actual@Adamant_Actual
    Replying to @owillis

    I will legitimately pay $1000 to the first journalist who asks him about our trade deficit with Wakanda putting hard-working American vibraneum miners out of work.

  63. [63] 
    Paula wrote:

    Officials say they found swastikas etched into the Florida high school shooter’s rifle magazines, CNN and CBS News reported.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/parkland-shooter-swastikas_us_5a96a5c4e4b09c872bafe4af?2vj

    On Instagram Cruz posted photos of himself wearing a MAGA hat. (That is not from the article linked above, but it was widely reported after the shooting. Not, in my opinion, mentioned often enough since.)

  64. [64] 
    neilm wrote:

    Hope Hicks is leaving. I don't blame her. If the Democrats win big in November there are going to be a lot of expensive legal bills for many of the occupants of the White House.

    If she gets out now she might at least be out of the politically motivated firing line.

    However perhaps Mueller will want to know more about the "white lies" she tells on Trump's behalf, and if she can be pressured into being a witness for the prosecution.

  65. [65] 
    TheStig wrote:

    Hope could not spring eternal after making her the white lies comment, but she just might turn state's evidence.

  66. [66] 
    TheStig wrote:

    More news-

    Dick's will no longer sell assault rifles so that other dicks can't buy them to shoot up schools.

  67. [67] 
    Kick wrote:

    Michale
    36

    Why would I want to rub my nose in your fat ass???

    What part of the term "Orange Sphincter" has confused you? Your head is so far up the Trumpian Sphincter that you're not thinking straight for oxygen deprivation. Extricate your head from the Orange Asshole and take a breath and collect yourself. :)

    And *WHY* would you ask me to!???

    I wouldn't and didn't... Orange Nose. :D

  68. [68] 
    Kick wrote:

    Michale
    37

    Now, hush, welfare-girl...

    Adults are talking...

    Could you please take the discussion of your family and their personal problems to another forum, Mugshot?

  69. [69] 
    Kick wrote:

    Paula
    62

    *LOL* Good one! :)

  70. [70] 
    ListenWhenYouHear wrote:

    Anyone else catch the tweet from one of the Florida shooting survivors, Sarah Chadwick, after Sen. Rubio refused to say that he would not take money from the NRA?

    “We should change the names of AR-15s to “Marco Rubio” because they are so easy to buy.”

    Gotta say, the future is looking brighter!

  71. [71] 
    ListenWhenYouHear wrote:

    Paula,
    [62] Oh dear God, PLEASE let this happen!

  72. [72] 
    Kick wrote:

    TS
    66

    Dick's will no longer sell assault rifles so that other dicks can't buy them to shoot up schools.

    *LOL*

    On the way back home today, we stopped into our local Dick's Sporting Goods and bought about two dozen North Face jackets to pass out to the vets at the VA.

    So here's the neat part. We talked to the store manager and told him what we were doing and why and to pass our thanks up the chain to the CEO. He said he'd been hearing it all morning and insisted on giving us a bag for each jacket for each veteran.

    Turns out those guys aren't dicks at marketing, and now I have a car full of "Dick's." :)

  73. [73] 
    ListenWhenYouHear wrote:

    Kick,

    Turns out those guys aren't dicks at marketing, and now I have a car full of "Dick's." :)

    Now, if I had said that..... oh never mind! ;D

  74. [74] 
    neilm wrote:

    On the way back home today, we stopped into our local Dick's Sporting Goods and bought about two dozen North Face jackets to pass out to the vets at the VA.

    Good for you! Thanks for doing this.

  75. [75] 
    Kick wrote:

    Russ
    73

    Now, if I had said that..... oh never mind! ;D

    Ha! Don't look at me... TS made me do it. *grin*

  76. [76] 
    Kick wrote:

    neilm
    74

    Good for you! Thanks for doing this.

    Those vets deserve whatever my daddy's money can buy them. :)

    Speaking of which... this market! Please keep your financial thoughts coming. :)

  77. [77] 
    TheStig wrote:

    Kick-72

    The jacket thing....Brilliant!!!

  78. [78] 
    Paula wrote:

    This is interesting: http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2017/03/politics/trump-putin-russia-timeline/

    80 times Trump talked about Putin

    Throughout the 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump consistently broke from political orthodoxy in his effusive praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    His glowing statements on Putin have become central in stoking the suspicion that he and his campaign were somehow connected to Russian interference in the election.

    A CNN KFile review of Trump’s public statements — from the years immediately before his presidential campaign to present — reveal that Trump has contradicted himself over the years about the nature of his relationship with Putin.

    Since 2013 — when Trump’s Miss Universe pageant was held in Moscow — Trump has at least nine times claimed to have spoken to, met, or made contact with Putin. But as the 2016 campaign wore on and his statements on Putin began to attract more scrutiny, Trump changed course, denying having ever met the Russian president.

    “I never met Putin,” Trump said at a July 2016 news conference. “I don’t know who Putin is. He said one nice thing about me. He said I'm a genius. I said thank you very much to the newspaper and that was the end of it. I never met Putin.”

    Follows are then 80 quotes in a timeline from 2013 to 2016.

  79. [79] 
    Kick wrote:

    Russ
    70

    “We should change the names of AR-15s to “Marco Rubio” because they are so easy to buy.”

    Heh. Now that's a good one.

    Gotta say, the future is looking brighter!

    These survivors speaking out for themselves is a powerful weapon. David Hogg and Cameron Kasky of Never Again will be on Bill Maher's top-of-the-show segment on "Real Time" tonight. Got my popcorn ready. :)

  80. [80] 
    Kick wrote:

    Paula
    78

    This is interesting: http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2017/03/politics/trump-putin-russia-timeline/

    80 times Trump talked about Putin

    Interesting timeline and quotes, and that confirms it: Trump is definitely Putin's Bitch.

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