Nevada Gets No Respect
While we're all sitting around waiting for the New Hampshire primary results to begin coming in, I'd like to take a moment to point out something which I hadn't really noticed before. Nevada is the Rodney Dangerfield of early primary states -- it don't get no respect.
I'm not sure exactly why this is, but it's hard not to notice the difference in the way the media and the pollsters -- and the politicians themselves -- treat Nevada differently than Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Take a look at the difference in polling. New Hampshire and Iowa both have had oodles of polls -- dozens released in the final days, in fact. Nevada, to date, doesn't even rate a polling-overview page on Real Clear Politics, since there haven't been enough polls conducted to even figure out an average. Pundits routinely forget to mention Nevada, and speak of the post-New Hampshire race as taking place solely in South Carolina.
Nevada has over 2.8 million residents. That's a lot more than New Hampshire, although not quite as many as Iowa. Most of the people in Nevada are pretty easy to find, because the population mostly lives within Las Vegas and Reno (and a handful of other secondary gambling destinations).
Now, granted, Nevada is a caucus state rather than a primary state. Caucuses are always a lot harder to predict, due to the uncertainty of who will actually show up. Even so, Iowa is a caucus state and gets orders of magnitude more attention than Nevada.
Nevada is fairly new to the whole "we get to go first" quartet. This might be the single biggest reason the political frenzy hasn't caught on in the Silver State. However, even this isn't a complete answer, because South Carolina is just as new to the early process as Nevada.
A decade or so back, there was a very valid complaint levied against both Iowa and New Hampshire. Their populations are small, and they are distinctly unrepresentative of the makeup of America as a whole. That's a polite way of saying both states are in the range of being 90-95 percent white. Minorities simply had no real voice in the early selection process. To fix the problem, two states were added -- one with a high percentage of Latino voters (Nevada) and one with a high percentage of African-American voters (South Carolina). In my opinion, this was one of the better "fixes" ever performed to the primary system (in fact, there are so many other reforms which should happen it's hard to count them all, but I digress...). Now Latino and black voters do have a say in the early process.
Or they would, if the media would pay a little better attention. Part of the problem is that South Carolina and Nevada both have political parties that can't even agree on the calendar. The first vote after New Hampshire will take place on the same day -- for Democrats in Nevada and Republicans in South Carolina. A week later, they will switch places. This makes it hard to focus the media's attention, admittedly, but again -- South Carolina is guilty of the same calendar-splitting, and they still get more attention.
This year, both states could be incredibly influential in the nomination races. On the Democratic side, if Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire (as expected), then Nevada and South Carolina will be the tests of whether he can actually gain significant minority support. If he does manage to do so, the rest of the primary season looks like a tough race between Sanders and Hillary Clinton. If he can't manage to gain this minority support, however, Clinton could begin to sweep across too many states for Bernie to ever catch up.
On the Republican side, it's impossible to tell the dynamics of the South Carolina and Nevada races until we hear who won New Hampshire. Some candidates will not make it to Super Tuesday -- the only question now is who will be forced to drop out. Obviously, South Carolina and Nevada are going to play a major part in these decisions.
We have a cobbled-together system of early primary states. The system is better than it used to be with the addition of minority-heavy states -- that is undeniable. But it's inescapable that Nevada (and Latino voters, by extension) are getting far less attention, far less polling, and far less analysis than the other three early-voting states.
Nevada, in other words, just don't get no respect.
-- Chris Weigant
Follow Chris on Twitter: @ChrisWeigant
fall less polling? far less polling?
@cw,
type-o? anyhow, excellent point about nevada being overlooked, especially considering the demographic trends toward more latino voters.
JL
nypoet22 -
Whoops! Fixed... mea culpa. And thanks for pointing it out...
I think I was trying to decide between "far less polling" and "far fewer polls" and just missed the typo. Spell check can't fix everything!
:-)
-CW
So far, it's looking pretty good for my GOP NH predictions... Trump in lead, Kasich following, everyone else jammed up for 3rd...
I'll be here (on this comment thread) for a while, watching the NH results, if anyone else wants to hang out...
-CW
NBC just called the winners, Trump and Sanders (no real surprise).
However, 2nd and 3rd is key for GOP...
-CW
Clinton is getting her ass kicked!!! :D
I am crashing.. Just finished watching episode #2 of THE XFILES...
It's weird....
Check ya'all in the AM...
Michale
Michale [6] -
You mean the new series? I'm liking it so far (seen all 5), but can't believe they only made 6 of them!
-CW
Right now, looking like Bush has best shot at #3, with Cruz fighting for it as well...
-CW
Early prediction: Christie "suspends his campaign" before the night is over. Fiorina too, if she's smart...
-CW
Networks call 2nd place for Kasich.
Just saw Christie say he's going on to SC, so guess I got that one wrong...
-CW
I was hoping that Kasich would finish second. That seems like the best possible result for Trump.
Looks like the real suspense is still numbers 3, 4 & 5 among the Repubs.
Bummer re: Kasich but hope he fades in the next round.
Re: Bernie/Hillary -- exactly what everyone expected so the real test is still ahead.
Looks like it's time to say goodnight to Sleepy Carson.
Whoops! Christie says he's going back to NJ to assess things....
-CW
JFC -
Yeah, I agree. Kasich totally muddies the "establishment GOP" waters. Bush doing so well also adds to that dynamic...
Paula -
Looks like Cruz beat Bush for 3rd...
JFC -
I dunno, Carson's got better chances in SC. And Super Tuesday. I doubt he'll drop out yet...
-CW
Looks like I called the Clinton/Sanders spread pretty accurately, eh?? :D
Nearly a 2-1 margin...
Michale
http://theamericanmirror.com/photo-shows-american-flags-crumpled-up-on-hillary-hq-floor/
This, and for so many other reasons, is why Hillary deserves to lose..
Michale
The American people have spoken..
They are sick and tired of the status quo and they simply are not going to take it anymore..
THAT is the take away from New Hampshire...
Michale
TS,
Curious.. What did the betting markets predict on the New Hampshire counts??
What do they say about Trump and Clinton now??
Michale
You can also bet that Albricht's and Steinem's bone-headed shaming of young millennial women had a hand in the crushing defeat of Hillary..
Team Clinton would do well to keep those two as far from the campaign as possible...
Not that I think it will matter. The damage has already been done..
Michale
You mean the new series? I'm liking it so far (seen all 5), but can't believe they only made 6 of them!
Yea, limited runs of popular series seem to be the style these days..
A limited run of 24, HEROES and now X-FILES..
Kinda kewl actually..
Michale
Looks like Sanders stomped Clinton in every demographic except 65+ age group...
Kewl! :D
Michale
Re: Bernie/Hillary -- exactly what everyone expected so the real test is still ahead.
Most expected that Clinton would at least keep the race within single digit lead or a very VERY low double digit lead.....
This utter decimation (predicted by yours truly TOOT TOOT :D ) was definitely the worst-case scenario for Team Clinton...
Michale
Numerous Sanders supporters flatly stated that they would under no circumstances back Clinton, citing the criticisms of her that Sanders brings up on the stump every day.
-http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/09/did-bernie-just-poison-hillary-2016.html
The Democrat Party's worst nightmare..
Michale
CW,
Early prediction: Christie "suspends his campaign" before the night is over.
Looks like you called it.. :D Just 12 hours too early..
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/feb/10/chris-christie-expected-suspend-presidential-campa/
Michale
And the EXCITEMENT factor is clearly with the GOP this election..
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/feb/10/gop-shatters-its-turnout-record-democrats-lag-behi/
Michale
EXCLUSIVE: How the Clintons embraced Wall Street and made $76,000 a DAY by cashing in with speech after speech - but now Hillary wants to fight to 'rein in' the money men
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3438129/The-Clintons-76-000-DAY-just-year-cashed-Wall-Street-speech-speech-including-100-000-just-appearing-video-link.html
Oh yea...
Hillary is going to rein in Wall Street....
If anyone believes that, I have some Florida swampland I want to sell them... :D
Michale
if christie bows out, i wonder who will get the lion's share of his supporters. christie's discourse style and overall policy leanings are much more like trump than the others, but he is much more like rubio or bush on hot button populist issues like immigration, campaign finance and the tax code.
well, it's official. no more christie, no more fiorina. anyone else care to speculate where their voters will turn next? CW?
It's gonna be Trump.. No doubt about it.. :D
Michale
M-19
Sorry for the late reply. Snow, wood splitting are eating into my internet time.
For the record:
I don't pay much attention to Betfair primary predictions because the markets are VERY small - it's like trusting a poll with a sample size of 100. This especially true when there are more than just two candidates. That said, Betfair called it for Trump and Sanders, and they did it a long time ago.
orry for the late reply. Snow, wood splitting are eating into my internet time.
I am envious.... We miss snow... :D
Michale
It'll be interesting to see if the polls align with BetFair eventually..
Or if Betfair aligns with the polls.. :D
Michale
M-33
They tend to converge on the winner towards election week. Polls have substantial impact of the markets, the reverse much less so. They really speak a different language
M-32
You miss snow, how about ice? Also temperatures in the teens and winds hitting 20 mph?
Ice, I could do without.. I remember when we were visiting Oak Harbor WA, we got stuck in town for a couple days because of an ice storm.. Both roads out of town had a somewhat steep incline and no one was leaving.. :D
Michale